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Dream Team 4: Golden State Warriors

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Warriors had a 99.9% probability to win the game, just goes to show how useless numbers and predictions are in sports sometimes.


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They aren't useless. They had a 99.99% probability of winning. What ensued was an exceedingly unlikely even. Blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth happens 1 in 10,000 times. This was that one time. Just like them blowing a 3-1 Finals lead is an exceedingly rare event. It hardly ever happens, but it happened this time. It is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.
 
True.. unless KD stays KD.. wich is pretty likley after 9 Years beeing KD..

I dont know if they can fix their issues short of Trading one of KD or Curry..
This is not working. Both are great as No1 Options but nearly useless in Crunchtime.. And both tend to just take threes and not actually create the best Shot..

They have the best record in the NBA. Things aren't going that badly for them, as much as we relish it when it does.
 
They aren't useless. They had a 99.99% probability of winning. What ensued was an exceedingly unlikely even. Blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth happens 1 in 10,000 times. This was that one time. Just like them blowing a 3-1 Finals lead is an exceedingly rare event. It hardly ever happens, but it happened this time. It is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

I have to disagree.. it is a Pattern now with GSW... since Game 5 of Last year they seem scared when it comes to closing close Games..
They are prone now to giving up Big leads and losing..
Thats something totally different than a 0.01 Chance "Miracle"..

They have the best record in the NBA. Things aren't going that badly for them, as much as we relish it when it does.


Yet things are also going not nearly as well as planned.. They are only 1.5 Games ahead of SA and only a few Games ahead of us..
Their Inside Defense Problem stays as well as their issues with beeing clutch or Playing Hard...

I stand by my claim from the Summer that the 2017 Warriors scare me alot less than the 2016 or 2015 Versions.. Much less complete Team.. and added an Pure Iso Guy and Choker in KD..
 
I have to disagree.. it is a Pattern now with GSW... since Game 5 of Last year they seem scared when it comes to closing close Games..
They are prone now to giving up Big leads and losing..

Thats something totally different than a 0.01 Chance "Miracle"..




Yet things are also going not nearly as well as planned.. They are only 1.5 Games ahead of SA and only a few Games ahead of us..
Their Inside Defense Problem stays as well as their issues with beeing clutch or Playing Hard...

I stand by my claim from the Summer that the 2017 Warriors scare me alot less than the 2016 or 2015 Versions.. Much less complete Team.. and added an Pure Iso Guy and Choker in KD..

Neither games 5 or 6 were a failure to close as they trailed in the fourth in both. Game 7 was a toss up, but considering they were up late, you could say they failed to close.

Other than that, they have this game and the Christmas game. Two games in which they've blown big leads and lost. They've lost 6 games total and have the best record in the league. Like Kilgore said, things aren't going that badly, even if we want think it is.

Lest we forget some of the major problems the cavs had in the regular season last year.
 
They aren't useless. They had a 99.99% probability of winning. What ensued was an exceedingly unlikely even. Blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth happens 1 in 10,000 times. This was that one time. Just like them blowing a 3-1 Finals lead is an exceedingly rare event. It hardly ever happens, but it happened this time. It is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

Yeah I would have to agree with this post. The Grizzlies basically won a small lottery. It doesn't really change the fact that it was a really unlikely win. Just a really small and volatile sample size.
 
It has been outlined that Klay and Draymond are able to renegotiate their contracts to be new max deals (due to being all NBA 2nd team I believe) which would basically mean the big 4 would cost somewhere around $110M by themselves next year, if they all go for that money.
Really? That is a thing? I never knew renegotiation was possible. Is that in the new CBA or something?

Also, after Steph being lowballed and playing so cheap last few years, he has to take a full max right? Which is 30+ mil a year I'm guessing. If Warriors don't win a ring, let's see how bad their FO wants to pay all these guys.
 
So the last possession sequence went like this.. Curry Iso- contested 3. Offensive rebound Warriors.. Durant Iso ON Z-BO, Contested 3. lmao
 
Really? That is a thing? I never knew renegotiation was possible. Is that in the new CBA or something?

Also, after Steph being lowballed and playing so cheap last few years, he has to take a full max right? Which is 30+ mil a year I'm guessing. If Warriors don't win a ring, let's see how bad their FO wants to pay all these guys.

I don't know how steph views it, but let's not change history here. He wasn't lowballed. He was lucky to get as much as he did as there was a very real concern he'd be done because of his ankle issues.
 
Really? That is a thing? I never knew renegotiation was possible. Is that in the new CBA or something?

Also, after Steph being lowballed and playing so cheap last few years, he has to take a full max right? Which is 30+ mil a year I'm guessing. If Warriors don't win a ring, let's see how bad their FO wants to pay all these guys.

Yes, it is under the new CBA. There is not 100% clarity on it but it seems that two players per team can sign under the DPE - designated player exception and Klay and Green will likely qualify for this if they don't already.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-bargaining-agreement/?utm_term=.76e717acd140

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/5ikqx9/marks_under_new_cba_klay_thompson_and_draymond/

As far as Steph goes I believe he can get 35% of the cap, which is over $35M, and Klay and Draymond could get 30% with this new rule I believe.

If all three take as much money as they would technically be allowed under the new CBA I believe they'd be at about $97M combined. This does not count Durant, and I believe his option is for $27M next year. So combined they would be around $135M if they all take the max they are allowed; more if Durant wants more than $27M. This is with 4 players on the roster...

Unfortunately Love and Irving can probably do the same if they make All-NBA. I guess at least the Cavs would only have 3 of these max players instead of 4, but still a ton of money when you account for TT and JR having pretty big contracts as well.
 
Unfortunately Love and Irving can probably do the same if they make All-NBA. I guess at least the Cavs would only have 3 of these max players instead of 4, but still a ton of money when you account for TT and JR having pretty big contracts as well.
This crossed my mind. It would be great if either made All NBA 2nd team, I just kind of doubt it. Unless they value record a lot in those things which I don't know.

But the difference is we are 1st in the NBA in salary, and the Warriors have this crazy team and they are... 8th somehow? Steph only making 12 mil, jumping that to 35. Love making about 6 mil more than Draymond a year and 5 more than Klay. Kyrie also making more than them. Kyrie is underpaid, but overall, we aren't severely underpaid like them.

But with Draymond and Klay willing to take pay cuts, maybe they will continue to be willing to take paycuts?
 
They aren't useless. They had a 99.99% probability of winning. What ensued was an exceedingly unlikely even. Blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth happens 1 in 10,000 times. This was that one time. Just like them blowing a 3-1 Finals lead is an exceedingly rare event. It hardly ever happens, but it happened this time. It is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

Did they have a 99.99% chance of winning?

One issue I have is that such metrics are used as forecasts when in fact, they are not. In other words, one can make a predictive assessment based on past data to approximate the likelihood of some past event that doesn't actually speak to the probability of some specific future event happening; i.e., the difference between forecasting and prediction.

In other words, while it is reasonable to assume that teams in a general sense blowing a 19 point lead in the 4th quarter happens 1-in-10,000 times based on past events; it is not reasonable to assume that the Warriors 19-pt lead had a 99.99% chance of holding up against the Grizzlies last night.

There's a lot more there to be considered other than how often teams come back from 19-pt deficits in what would usually amount to extended garbage time. This game was nothing like that and was competitive throughout the 4th quarter.

The metric that was used was likely not a forecast model to take such things into account; so that's one of the reasons it was and is rightly ridiculed.

It's a perfect example of the widespread misuse of statistics.

p.s.
The Warriors were up 14-pts against the Cavs in the 4th quarter; they lost.
The Warriors were up 19-pts against the Grizzlies in the 4th quarter; they lost.
The Warriors blew a 3-1 lead in the Finals last year.
They've melted down in numerous 4th quarters this year.

They aren't just monumentally unlucky; the general statistic regarding historic trends is simply being used incorrectly. It is predictive of past events, it is not forecasting the probability of specific future events between two specific teams.

tl;dr: The Warriors did not have a 99.99% chance of beating the Grizzlies when the 4th quarter started last night.
 
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This crossed my mind. It would be great if either made All NBA 2nd team, I just kind of doubt it. Unless they value record a lot in those things which I don't know.

But the difference is we are 1st in the NBA in salary, and the Warriors have this crazy team and they are... 8th somehow? Steph only making 12 mil, jumping that to 35. Love making about 6 mil more than Draymond a year and 5 more than Klay. Kyrie also making more than them. Kyrie is underpaid, but overall, we aren't severely underpaid like them.

But with Draymond and Klay willing to take pay cuts, maybe they will continue to be willing to take paycuts?

I don't think Draymond and Klay really took paycuts. Klay's is a max. Draymond signed 5yr/82M, a max would have been 90M. Their contracts are just reflective of a much lower cap/less years experience when they signed them (like Kyrie and to a lesser extent Kev).

And actually, Love does not qualify for this, because he was not traded here on his rookie contract and the Cavs did not draft him. So that's a plus (Durant also does not qualify but he's on 1 year deal + 1 year player option).

Also I mispoke when I said 2nd team All NBA. It can be any of the three All NBA teams. So unless Kyrie gets snubbed, he will be eligible. He has never made an All NBA team, so maybe he will be snubbed again.

Even if Klay does not make All NBA for some reason this season, he is still eligible, because he would have made All NBA for 2 of the past 3 years at that point. Draymond needs to make it this year to be eligible since last year was his only year (must make either All NBA in most recent season or in 2 of the past 3 seasons).
 
They aren't useless. They had a 99.99% probability of winning. What ensued was an exceedingly unlikely even. Blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth happens 1 in 10,000 times. This was that one time. Just like them blowing a 3-1 Finals lead is an exceedingly rare event. It hardly ever happens, but it happened this time. It is unlikely to happen again anytime soon.

To be fair I didn't say they're completely useless which is certainly not true, I said that sometimes in sports this type of prediction models are useless.

IMO there's no way in hell its a 99.9% to win that game being up 19 in the 3rd quarter, I'll give you 80%,I'll give you 90% but no way in hell its a 99.9% that number makes zero sense whatever metric they're using its bad.
 

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