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2018 NBA Draft - June 21

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You wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop based on what?

Unless something catastrophic/highly rare happens, Porter will be a top 3-5 pick as long as he maintains. Kyrie was a #1 pick despite playing 11 games and being injured. I’m VERY high on Porter (his ability to create, and make, NBA-level baskets is VERY rare for a teenager). In a League where shooting and versatility are en Vogue, being a 6’11” shot-maker will be highly valued.
 
Struggle to create quality offense inthe half court

Settle on jumpers, trouble creating separation, forcing the issue

Indifference on D

I just don't think he is a sure thing. I expect to see a lot of risers during the season.

I swear we’re not watching the same 6’11 guy who excels at creating separation and scoring from all over the court and thus...will be a great fit for half court offense.
 
Because someone having better all around physical skills than someone doesn’t equate to them being able to draw 11 free throws a game and average neary a triple double.

I mean...we’re saying his ceiling is AT LEAST that? So he’s going to average a triple double basically?

Look... I don’t like Harden’s game that much, but he’s extremely crafty and he’s a great scorer, one of the best ever. How is he a comparison for Doncic?

Harden’s what he is because he’s got the ball in his hands constantly and he’s inefficient. Is that the game Doncic will even play?

Doncic's ceiling is definitely a guy who averages a triple double. As a 17/18 year old, he averaged 7 assists and 9 boards per 40 minutes in an 80-game season. How many other players could've done that at his age? LeBron, maybe?
 
Doncic's ceiling is definitely a guy who averages a triple double. As a 17/18 year old, he averaged 7 assists and 9 boards per 40 minutes in an 80-game season. How many other players could've done that at his age? LeBron, maybe?

So you think the guy is literally going to be one of the greatest basketball players of all time. Somewhere between Harden and LeBron.

I’m holding you to that.

As to who could have done a per 40 in a Euroleague at 18...dude, you throw the weirdest impossible to answer hypotheticals at me. :chuckle:

That requires so much projection and I don’t know how many guys have had the opportunity to do it. He was playing professional competition, yes but these guys play so few mpg that everything requires projection. I have no idea who else could have done this because no other great US prospects have ever tried.
 
Unless something catastrophic/highly rare happens, Porter will be a top 3-5 pick as long as he maintains. Kyrie was a #1 pick despite playing 11 games and being injured. I’m VERY high on Porter (his ability to create, and make, NBA-level baskets is VERY rare for a teenager). In a League where shooting and versatility are en Vogue, being a 6’11” shot-maker will be highly valued.

He is currently ranked at 2 according to draftexpress, but most cosnider him the best prospect.

Ability to create is excellent, but you gotta be able to create not only for yourself, but for your team. His game still projects to me to be heavily reliant on ISO and transition.

He is 6'10 and versatility like you said, is very important, but he looks like a tweener to much atm. His frame and strength is going to be troublesomeoin guarding guard 4's and he isn't quick enough to guard the athletic 3's.

Gis offense has a chance to become special , he has the tools and he looks like a good shooter, I just don't expect him to be good defensively, ever.
 
So you think the guy is literally going to be one of the greatest basketball players of all time. Somewhere between Harden and LeBron.

I’m holding you to that.

I'm saying his ceiling is one of the greatest basketball players of all time. A bigger, better James Harden or a less athletic LeBron.

Most likely case I think he's a run-of-the-mill All Star who occasionally makes an All-NBA team.

Worst case I think he's a solid glue guy starter who makes one or two All-Star teams.
 
Did I really see someone say James Harden is inefficient?
 
There are always surprise college players that emerge every year, but Michael Porter Jr. is honestly one of the best prospects since like AD, maybe most polished scorer at this stage since KD? He obviously has size and athleticism, but his offensive game is very polished already and he is skilled. The underrated thing is that he seems to actually have very good instincts on defense.

What it looks like he needs to get better at from what I've seen is ball handling, quickness, and diversifying his moves. When you see him go to the rim, it's almost always a straight line drive, usually on the break. In the half court, it seems like he struggles a bit to get past guys because he almost always pulls up for the jumper or goes stepback. He needs to get some handles and moves to make it harder for the defense to guard him and he will really be unstoppable. He can always shoot over the defense because of his size so I understand why it's tempting, it will come in handy in the NBA. But he needs be more aggressive in attacking the hoop. But I'm intrigued by his defensive potential.
 
For those who're buying into the Teodosic hype, here's a fun comparison.

Teodosic: 9.8 assists, 4.4 turnovers per 40 in Euroleague last year

Doncic: 8.5 assists, 3.6 turnovers per 40 in Euroleague last year

Teodosic was 29/30 years old, and Doncic was 17/18 years old.
 
I would assume it adds to his character, living in such big family. Nets, suck hard.
 
Don't buy that Harden was a better ball handler than Doncic at the same age, either. Harden was about as old at the start of his freshman year as Doncic was at the start of Eurobasket a month ago, for reference.

You are discounting Harden here. He was a top 10 player out of HS and had a monster 2 years of college. He exited ASU with career averages of 19 PPG, 4 AST, 5 REB, 2 STL and shot 50% from the floor and 38% from 3 on 4 attempts per game. His production, given the volume of outside shots he was taking, was elite.

It remains to be seen if Doncic can be efficient at higher USG levels. Harden was sustaining those numbers playing 35 minutes a game. While I'm not suggesting the EuroLeague is not on par with PAC12 basketball, Doncic's numbers are in a little under 20 min a game, so it's tougher to see how those additional minutes will drag down his efficiency.

I like him a lot as a player but I just don't see the equation of potential here (league MVP). Just because players have similar athletic profiles, does not mean they have similar ceilings. Harden was uber efficient playing 15 more minutes a game against quality college competition, with the pedigree of being a highly ranked HS player. He also drew FT's at a rate exponentially higher than Doncic (5.8 per game vs 2.2) while also displaying the ability to finish consistently against larger, more athletic players.

Im not saying Doncic has a low ceiling but I'm far more inclined to bet on athletes who develop vs. lower athletic ceiling guys when betting on superstar potential. I'm not saying Doncic WON'T be a star, I would just be a little more skeptical on him reaching that League MVP type ceiling given his limitations athletically.

The above wouldn't stop me from taking him #1 because I think he's a really safe bet to be (at minimum) a good starter but there are guys who will go behind him that have lower floors but higher ceilings IMO.
 
You are discounting Harden here. He was a top 10 player out of HS and had a monster 2 years of college. He exited ASU with career averages of 19 PPG, 4 AST, 5 REB, 2 STL and shot 50% from the floor and 38% from 3 on 4 attempts per game. His production, given the volume of outside shots he was taking, was elite.

It remains to be seen if Doncic can be efficient at higher USG levels. Harden was sustaining those numbers playing 35 minutes a game. While I'm not suggesting the EuroLeague is not on par with PAC12 basketball, Doncic's numbers are in a little under 20 min a game, so it's tougher to see how those additional minutes will drag down his efficiency.

I like him a lot as a player but I just don't see the equation of potential here (league MVP). Just because players have similar athletic profiles, does not mean they have similar ceilings. Harden was uber efficient playing 15 more minutes a game against quality college competition, with the pedigree of being a highly ranked HS player. He also drew FT's at a rate exponentially higher than Doncic (5.8 per game vs 2.2) while also displaying the ability to finish consistently against larger, more athletic players.

Im not saying Doncic has a low ceiling but I'm far more inclined to bet on athletes who develop vs. lower athletic ceiling guys when betting on superstar potential. I'm not saying Doncic WON'T be a star, I would just be a little more skeptical on him reaching that League MVP type ceiling given his limitations athletically.

The above wouldn't stop me from taking him #1 because I think he's a really safe bet to be (at minimum) a good starter but there are guys who will go behind him that have lower floors but higher ceilings IMO.

I think you're underestimating the difference in level of competition between college and Euroleague/ACB.

Here are Euroleague/ACB stats for players who've been drafted in the lottery the last few years:

Bender averaged 2 points, 1 board, and 1 assists in 11 minutes per game (17/18 years old)

Papagiannis averaged 2 points, 2 boards, and 0 assists in 5 minutes per game (18 years old)

Porzingis averaged 11 points, 5 boards, and 0 assists in 21 minutes per game (19 years old)

Hezonja averaged 6 points, 2 boards, and 1 assist in 15 minutes per game (19/20 years old)

Saric averaged 12 points, 6 boards, and 1 assist in 22 minutes per game (19 years old)

Obviously not all of these guys have panned out, but my point is they wouldn't even be on the radar of NBA teams if they were putting up those numbers in college ball. Especially notable are the low assist numbers; Saric, Hezonja, and Bender were all billed as guys with great feel for the game and some point guard skills. None of them even managed 2 assists per game in Euroleague/ACB play.

Doncic's in a completely different ballpark putting up the numbers he is against such a high level of competition.
 
Doncic kicks off his Euroleague MVP campaign with 27 points, 4 boards, and 4 assists.

27 points is a new career high for him. For comparison, Porzingis's Euroleague career high was 20, Rubio's was 19, and Saric's was 19.

EDIT: Full highlights

 
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That corner pass off the PnR.... this kid has serious talent.
 

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