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2017 College Football Season/Playoff Thread

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My Predictions for the polls this week. Im totally lost once it comes to picks 7-12

1. Alabama 10-0
2. Oklahoma 9-1
3. Clemson 9-1
4. Miami 9-0
5. Wisconsin 10-0
6. Georgia - 9-1
7a. Ohio State 8-2
7b. Notre Dame 8-2
7c. TCU 8-2
7d. Washington 8-2
7e. Auburn 8-2
7f. USC 9-2
 
Guys, we got crushed by a 4 loss team. And by Oklahoma. Any 1 loss Power 5 team with any semblance of a resume gets in over us. I think our path is clear. Auburn, Georgia, Clemson need to lose.

The question is, do we get in over the Pac 12 Champ? I'd have to think yes. Now...do we get in over Notre Dame? Probably, but that one I'm less certain about. Hopefully Navy or Stanford beats them.
 
Guys, we got crushed by a 4 loss team. And by Oklahoma. Any 1 loss Power 5 team with any semblance of a resume gets in over us. I think our path is clear. Auburn, Georgia, Clemson need to lose.

The question is, do we get in over the Pac 12 Champ? I'd have to think yes. Now...do we get in over Notre Dame? Probably, but that one I'm less certain about. Hopefully Navy or Stanford beats them.

Yea, honestly people. We lost by 30 fucking points to Iowa.

If Miami loses on a last second field goal to Clemson, theyre getting in over us.

And on top of this, it would be best if Notre Dame could lose another game.

If they win out they'd hold wins over Stanford, USC, NC State, and MIchigan State. Losses to Georgia and Miami. That's the one 2 loss team that I think has a chance to stay ahead of us, outside of Oklahoma (who just needs to win out entirely for us to get in).
 
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Yea, honestly people. We lost by 30 fucking points to Iowa.

If Miami loses on a last second field goal to Clemson, theyre getting in over us.

And on top of this, it would be best if Notre Dame could lose another game.

If they win out they'd hold wins over Stanford, USC, NC State, and MIchigan State. Losses to Georgia and Miami. That's the one 2 loss team that I think has a chance to stay ahead of us, outside of Oklahoma (who just needs to win out entirely for us to get in).
Yeah, Ohio State vs Notre Dame would be pretty close, but overall I think our resume/body of work would be better, with a conference championship to boot (in a very good conference at that).

Best win: Wisconsin >>> USC
2nd best win: Penn State >> NC State
3rd best win: Michigan State = Michigan State
4th best win: Michigan = Stanford

1st loss: 15 point Oklahoma loss worse than 1 point Georgia loss
2nd loss: 31 point Iowa loss worse than 33 point Miami loss

Big Ten Conference Championship > Independence

Notre Dame's claim to fame will be about the losses. Ohio State's claim to fame will be about the wins. I like our chances. If Notre Dame lost a close one to Miami I'd be more worried. That was by far the best team on their schedule and they got annihilated.

Hopefully, Notre Dame just loses to Navy or Stanford. If not, what I highlighted above will be pretty crucial in all this. If Wisconsin loses to Michigan and USC wins the Pac 12 we may be screwed. If Wisconsin is an undefeated top 5 team when we beat them, I think we're in. Especially if USC loses the Pac 12.
 
Yeah, Ohio State vs Notre Dame would be pretty close, but overall I think our resume/body of work would be better, with a conference championship to boot (in a very good conference at that).

Best win: Wisconsin >>> USC
2nd best win: Penn State >> NC State
3rd best win: Michigan State = Michigan State
4th best win: Michigan = Stanford

1st loss: 15 point Oklahoma loss worse than 1 point Georgia loss
2nd loss: 31 point Iowa loss worse than 33 point Miami loss

Big Ten Conference Championship > Independence

Notre Dame's claim to fame will be about the losses. Ohio State's claim to fame will be about the wins. I like our chances. If Notre Dame lost a close one to Miami I'd be more worried. That was by far the best team on their schedule and they got annihilated.

Hopefully, Notre Dame just loses to Navy or Stanford. If not, what I highlighted above will be pretty crucial in all this. If Wisconsin loses to Michigan and USC wins the Pac 12 we may be screwed. If Wisconsin is an undefeated top 5 team when we beat them, I think we're in. Especially if USC loses the Pac 12.

I personally think, we need Michigan to beat Wisconsin and for it to be a close game. This would help get Michigan higher when we play them, also it prevents any discussion of a 1 loss Wisc who just lost to OSU if they should get in over us. If Wisc wins out until they play us, we beat them. How do they hold out Wisc at 1 loss, and put a 2 loss team in.
 
If we win out I think there's about a 60% chance we are in.

Bama losing in SEC title game would be killer unless Auburn can give them a loss heading into it.

But ideally Bama wins out giving SEC 1 team.

Could get dicey but I belive Clemson vs Miami is an elimination game. Could almost be better if Clemson loses giving them two losses.

At this point we are Oklahoma fans IMO. Let them win Big 12 so it's a quality loss for us. We don't want to be in a resume contest with a two loss Oklahoma.

Obviously, if we beat Wisky we jump them. I don't see the PAC 12 champion getting in this year. Conference has been too weak.

Rankings after this week will be:

Alabama
Clemson
OU
Miami
Wisky
Auburn
Georgia
OSU

Not a bad place to be with a lot of football left and 2 losses. Auburn still has Bama. Georgia still has Bama. Miami and Clemson will knock each other off, and you never know how a semi-tough Gamecock squad could show in a rivalry game against Clemson.

And Mark Richt is still good for that inexplicable late season choke game. At Pitt on a really cold day could be interesting..hopefully it's -13 degrees.

There's still hope.....could be our LSU two loss year.
538 gives Ohio State a 62% chance to make the playoff if they win out.

Now, obviously that is a little high. But it makes a clear point - Ohio State is very much in this thing.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/

For the life of me, I can't believe we have a 6 in 10 chance of making the top 4. Just seems completely improbable. Don't get me wrong, I'll take it, but I'd give us like a 10-20% chance (but that's just in my own head).

I think we'll ultimately get punished for last year's 31-0 drubbing, and I think this is shaping up to be the year where we're on the other side of the gate. The big loss to Iowa will be far too much to overcome for a 2 loss team.
 
I personally think, we need Michigan to beat Wisconsin and for it to be a close game. This would help get Michigan higher when we play them, also it prevents any discussion of a 1 loss Wisc who just lost to OSU if they should get in over us. If Wisc wins out until they play us, we beat them. How do they hold out Wisc at 1 loss, and put a 2 loss team in.
I disagree. I think having that marquee win over an undefeated top 5 team is better than picking up an additional ranked win in the teens/twenties.

We go over Wisconsin because we just beat them, but more importantly because Wisconsin hasn't played anybody all year.

We didn't just get in over PSU last year due to having one less loss. Our resume last year was absolutely incredible. Wisconsin doesn't even have a resume if they lose to us.
 
For the life of me, I can't believe we have a 6 in 10 chance of making the top 4. Just seems completely improbable. Don't get me wrong, I'll take it, but I'd give us like a 10-20% chance (but that's just in my own head).

I think we'll ultimately get punished for last year's 31-0 drubbing, and I think this is shaping up to be the year where we're on the other side of the gate. The big loss to Iowa will be far too much to overcome for a 2 loss team.
We're talking about a scenario, that isn't unlikely, where the committee is selecting from a group of 2 loss teams.

I'm sorry, but no 2 loss team is perfect. They're all flawed in some fashion. Losing to Iowa by 30 is bad, but there's a bigger picture to look at here.
 
For the life of me, I can't believe we have a 6 in 10 chance of making the top 4. Just seems completely improbable. Don't get me wrong, I'll take it, but I'd give us like a 10-20% chance (but that's just in my own head).

I think we'll ultimately get punished for last year's 31-0 drubbing, and I think this is shaping up to be the year where we're on the other side of the gate. The big loss to Iowa will be far too much to overcome for a 2 loss team.

6 in 10 chance, if we win out...which is a big "if".

There will be teams at the end of the year with warts as well.

Also, fair or not, CFB isn't stupid....if it can find a way to increase TV ratings, ticket revenue, and continue to eat into the NFL market share.......well, appeasing the biggest fan-base in college football is inviting.
 
View: https://twitter.com/mitchsherman/status/93009669047186637


Still in contention
Alabama Crimson Tide
Miami Hurricanes
Oklahoma Sooners
Clemson Tigers
Wisconsin Badgers
Auburn Tigers
Georgia Bulldogs

Ohio State Buckeyes

Trending: UP
Much to the dismay of Penn State and countless others, the Buckeyes are still breathing. Left for dead a week ago after a 31-point loss at Iowa, Ohio State remains a big favorite to face Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes would need help as a two-loss league champ, but perhaps not as much as you think.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
TCU Horned Frogs


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It's starting, guys. This guy has even already eliminated Notre Dame and the Pac 12.
 
Miami and Oklahoma really need to win out at this point don't they?
 
Miami and Oklahoma really need to win out at this point don't they?

It has been discussed some in previous posts. But, yes it looks like that is the case. Clemson would need another loss to help us out and Miami is the only team likely to do that. As for OU, you could technically argue that if they lost twice (highly unlikely) that would be sufficient. Barring that, we need them to run the table since a two loss OU would likely beat out OSU. Auburn will need to lose as well. Therefore, Bama beating them would be quite helpful. In fact, Bama needs to run the table IMO to help OSU out. OSU's big problem is the 2nd loss to Iowa. It was ugly and has major damage to their playoff hopes.

Notre Dame is a tougher call for me. They have some impressive wins and have only lost to good teams. Yes, Miami throttled them. But, one could argue that even a blowout loss to Miami is way better than losing to Iowa. I'm not sure the committee would put a two loss OSU in over a two loss Notre Dame even with the conference championship. It might depend on how good OSU's wins are against UM and UW.
 
Alabama, Miami, Oklahoma win out, we're in. (obviously with us winning out)

Bama winning out knocks out Georgia and Auburn.

Miami winning out knocks out Clemson.

Oklahoma winning out prevents TCU in with Oklahoma staying ahead of us at the 4 spot.

We win out, we stay ahead of ND with the extra game and conference championship win.
 

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