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2018 NBA Draft - June 21

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Mikal Bridges has displayed excellent shooting at all three levels and exceptional free throw percentage for three years. The college game doesn't produce many established and proven shooters like that who also have an NBA frame anymore. Be concerned with his physicality, sure... but if that guy has shooting concerns everyone not named Trae Young has bigger shooting issues.

There is no such thing as a proven shooter in College. You are not proven until you show it in the NBA.

As for your first statement; it's not true as he only shown this ability this year.

Mikal has shown improvements to his game this year, though he wasn't a complete shooter in his sophomore year, and was a bad shooter in his freshman year. In his sophomore season he couldn't shoot off-screens at all, was good, but not an elite catch and shoot player, couldn't shoot off the dribble at all and still can't shoot off the dribble(Isn't it part of shooting?), and had attempted only 3 shot attempts from mid range prior to this year.

So it's wrong imo to project success according to his 3 seasons in Nova as this season was his only season as an overall excellent shooter according to the data.

Like I mentioned above though, Mikal has definitely showed improvement on almost all areas of his game though. Whether it is Isolation, posting up(had 0 attempts last year), mid range, etc.

Though as I said yesterday, the vast majority of his shot attempts come from the wings. He is a below average to average shooter at best from above the break for two seasons. This doesn't hold value for you in the NBA? Jae Crowder is a perfect example for that.

You are basing your projection on his ability to knock down 3s on a very good efficiency in the NBA...what if he becomes only a 36-37% 3pt shooter in the NBA? i That's a dangerous game as it looks like he doesn't have an in-between game and creation abilities. And if his build proves to be a huge issue then his projection can go to shit.

There are different type of shooters obviously. I'd say that Huerter is definitely the better all-around pure shooter(be it from shooting off-screens, mid range, and shooting from above the break), Landry Shamet also definitely has a case. Then there are players that are freshman that are better shooters than Mikal was as a Sophomore. So who knows how good they are going to be in two years playing in the NBA? Mikal is as old as a senior...not a junior.

As far as Catch and shoot players, Mykhailiuk, Shake Milton and Khyri Thomas, Toni Carr are very good and are comparable and are better on unguarded Catch and shoots. As an overall shooters Aaron Holiday(Also an elite catch and shoot player) and Gary Trent are up there as well(Trent really showed promise in the latter parts of the seasons...i'd say that his consistency is still not there at this point, though he is young and is projected to be very very good imo...more similar to Devin Booker as far as a shot maker). Alonzo Trier while not up there as far as catch and shoot goes(still pretty good), is the best scorer out of the bunch(Lou Williams type?) and the best off the dribble shooter by far on a very high volume(95th percentile in efficiency on 100 possessions). There is also Trae young that you had mentioned already.

So it really depends what you are looking for for a shooter. All of those guys are far better than Mikal as far as shooting from areas other than the Wings(They also shoot better percentages than Mikal from NBA 3). I'd say that Mikal's advantage is his ability to shoot over the top, but his mechanics are still somewhat problematic as he brings the ball way too far to his left which messes his ability to shoot off the dribble...though it is correctable.

Other than Huerter, Mykhailiuk, Khyri, Shamet and Trent all the players in this list have less than perfect form. Carr's release point is very low, Aaron Holiday is short and doesn't have a high release point either, although his guarded catch and shoot numbers are very good. But if we are strictly looking at the data, then all of these guys should be on the same tier, unless that is you are trying to project NBA 3pt shooting success according to form, length, etc...which is a different argument.

I'm genuinely asking...why is Khyri Thomas being mocked in the late 1st, and Mikal is being mocked at 7-10? What justifies that crazy difference? is it length? i'd say that Khyri as a far better NBA body. So i'm curious.

I don't see the value in picking Mikal at 8th in such a deep draft. I did once, but not anymore.
 
My own model, which I trust more, has him much less likely to bust. And neither model, as far as I'm aware, accounts for team-level success or plus/minus stats, both of which are massively in favor of Mikal. Even after accounting for that I don't think he has the same kind of upside as most other lottery guys, but I think he's a very safe bet to be a solid NBA player.

Okay...I'd say there is a bigger chance he busts because there is no promise two of his selling points are definitely going to translate. At least once of them is definitely in question.

That's not true about Jackson (assuming @ReferSadness's on/off numbers are correct). Michigan was modestly better defensively with him on the court. Mikal easily had the best defensive on/off numbers of any 'Nova player. I wouldn't take for granted that Miles won't get targeted, especially if he ends up playing PF where his lack of size will be particularly glaring.

I read that he was a negative...so I guess we can't know for sure!

Mikal was definitely the better defender in college...i'm just afraid that he is more of a college defender than an NBA defender nowadays. However, I definitely think he is going to be overwhelmed with the physicality and size in the NBA, whether he proves to be strong enough in a year, two years, etc...

I think people need to tone down their expectations as far as being an immediate impact player.

I like Mikal a lot as a shooter because of his rare combination of size and accuracy. Defenders will really have to stay glued to him to offer a good contest, and that's valuable. Wish he could shoot better off the dribble, in which case I'd be more comfortable taking him at #8, but he is what he is.

We don't know how he is going to shoot in the NBA. That's a bit premature. If he proves to be a very good shooter in the NBA then sure, I agree. It will probably open up his straight line drives as well.

Maybe I'm overrating the importance of team success...but...I find it hard to look past the fact that Michigan State and Arizona were 2/3 in the preseason AP poll, and everyone was sure Bridges and Ayton were going to dominate and carry those teams to deep march madness runs, and then they both lost early on to mediocre teams. And then in retrospect everyone is like "oh yeah, their coaches suck! their systems suck!" and everyone ignores the fact that the players themselves played like dogshit. And in contrast, everyone is like "wow, what an amazing system 'Nova has!" and they sort of underrate how impressive it is for those players to go out and consistently play winning basketball day in and day out.

At the end of the day it's a 5-on-5 game, not a 1-on-1 game. Who in this class has the best natural understanding of how to win that game?

I really don't think you can compare Arizona and Ayton to Michigan and Miles. Ayton showed lack of willingness to compete and total indifference...he was exposed as a rim protector and perimeter defender and showed that his game might be outdated in the NBA. Miles definitely doesn't lack any competitive spirit and the reason they lost is more due to the fact that they couldn't break the zone. It exposed Jaren Jackson and Izzo more than it exposed Miles. What did you want him to do? break down the zone by himself? he didn't have the ball much at all either.

It's impressive that Nova play such a team oriented basketball. This however doesn't say anything about Mikal as an individual. It's about team concept. all of Nova players played on a very high level, not just Mikal. I have seen Mikal look clueless at times on the floor and was being told what to do as far as screening/ cutting goes. Nova just played on a different level than the other college programs. They played some GSW basketball. Who says Mikal is going to play the same way in the NBA? What if he is going to be parked in the corner? NBA in the playoffs has become very iso heavy. Is he going to tell his coach to run more pin downs for him?
 
I'm genuinely asking...why is Khyri Thomas being mocked in the late 1st, and Mikal is being mocked at 7-10? What justifies that crazy difference? is it length? i'd say that Khyri as a far better NBA body. So i'm curious.

I'm a Khyri supporter and if the Cavs kept their own pick, I'd be in favor of targeting him or perhaps the Bosnian small forward. Khyri has a higher usage rate for a lesser team, but I think he will learn to be more of a role player. Khyri has a good wingspan for a guard, but Mikal has better measurements: 6'7 with a 7'0 wingspan is very good for a shooting guard. Khyri is 6'4 with a 6'10 wingspan, right? If Mikal adds the floater or runner that Khyri has already developed, he's the much more attractive contributor because of length and athleticism. It's like comparing Marcus Smart to Trevor Ariza. They are very good defenders, but I trust Ariza on switches more.

While I think you have made up your mind on Mikal Bridges, I still see room for improvement from a player who has proven that he is still adding to his game every year. He won't be the best player on an NBA team. He is a complimentary player. His movement without the ball hasn't even been touched yet. Like Weepinwillow said, he's a lot like Klay in how he approaches the offense, and as long as he keeps his usage rate and turnovers down, he is going to make other ball dominant players around him better with his skill set on both sides of the court.

For me, you target the guys who should be headed to an All Star game first... but if the top five prospects are gone along with Wendell Carter and Porter, I'll come away happy with Mikal as the shooting guard replacing JR's role.
 
I'm a Khyri supporter and if the Cavs kept their own pick, I'd be in favor of targeting him or perhaps the Bosnian small forward. Khyri has a higher usage rate for a lesser team, but I think he will learn to be more of a role player. Khyri has a good wingspan for a guard, but Mikal has better measurements: 6'7 with a 7'0 wingspan is very good for a shooting guard. Khyri is 6'4 with a 6'10 wingspan, right? If Mikal adds the floater or runner that Khyri has already developed, he's the much more attractive contributor because of length and athleticism. It's like comparing Marcus Smart to Trevor Ariza. They are very good defenders, but I trust Ariza on switches more.

While I think you have made up your mind on Mikal Bridges, I still see room for improvement from a player who has proven that he is still adding to his game every year. He won't be the best player on an NBA team. He is a complimentary player. His movement without the ball hasn't even been touched yet. Like Weepinwillow said, he's a lot like Klay in how he approaches the offense, and as long as he keeps his usage rate and turnovers down, he is going to make other ball dominant players around him better with his skill set on both sides of the court.

For me, you target the guys who should be headed to an All Star game first... but if the top five prospects are gone along with Wendell Carter and Porter, I'll come away happy with Mikal as the shooting guard replacing JR's role.

That's fair enough...

Marcus Smart is a fair comparison for Khyri. What I like about this comparison is that both guards were Excellent scoring/assisting in Post ups. Both are big guards that take advantage of smaller players in the post. I think this is going to translate for him.

I'd say that the biggest difference is that Khyri is an excellent shooter(Smart was an abysmal shooter). Khyri is also a better finisher inside and better in transition...overall a more efficient offensive player. Smart was a better PnR Ball Handler(Khyri isn't very good @ PnR) and a better defender. Smart was special defensively and i'm not sure how good Khyri is going to be in the NBA.(Still a very good college defender because of his ability to defend using good angles and his wingspan...doesn't have excellent lateral quickness)

I think Khry's role, at least in the first couple of years is going to be an off-guard catch and shoot player. A bigger and stronger Beverly if you will. He has the prototypical size for a high end role player 2 guard that thrives @ Spot-Up. Maybe an off chance to carve our a bigger role than that? you never know. Jimmy Butler anomaly? he also somewhat reminds me of Jerian Grant, though a better shooter so it changes things.

As far as defense goes. I gotta point out that Ariza is 6'8 and still much stronger than Mikal, and Mikal is 6'6 and is pretty weak right now. If I knew Mikal would be as strong as Ariza then I wouldn't be against Mikal at all. I swear to god though, Mikal's build, softness and lack of strength is probably the factor in my assessment.

Klay was pretty different in College though. He was much more of an isolation scorer and could shoot off the dribble. Even in the NBA, Klay is a pretty good shooter off the dribble and is able to create for himself.
 
Damn.....I took my eyes off player draft news when the Finals were going on.

To rub salt in the Lakers trade wound, I just saw Divincenzo decided to stay in this draft.

Between he, Allen, Huerter, Okogie....so many good wing options in that mid 20's range. Ouch.
 
Damn.....I took my eyes off player draft news when the Finals were going on.

To rub salt in the Lakers trade wound, I just saw Divincenzo decided to stay in this draft.

Between he, Allen, Huerter, Okogie....so many good wing options in that mid 20's range. Ouch.

Yes. So many players that on average drafts would have been in the lottery.

Indeed Ouch. Ouch,ouch,ouch.

I do think Hurter is going to be selected way earlier...around 15-18. He is killing workouts.
 
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Okay...I'd say there is a bigger chance he busts because there is no promise two of his selling points are definitely going to translate. At least once of them is definitely in question.



I read that he was a negative...so I guess we can't know for sure!

Mikal was definitely the better defender in college...i'm just afraid that he is more of a college defender than an NBA defender nowadays. However, I definitely think he is going to be overwhelmed with the physicality and size in the NBA, whether he proves to be strong enough in a year, two years, etc...

I think people need to tone down their expectations as far as being an immediate impact player.



We don't know how he is going to shoot in the NBA. That's a bit premature. If he proves to be a very good shooter in the NBA then sure, I agree. It will probably open up his straight line drives as well.



I really don't think you can compare Arizona and Ayton to Michigan and Miles. Ayton showed lack of willingness to compete and total indifference...he was exposed as a rim protector and perimeter defender and showed that his game might be outdated in the NBA. Miles definitely doesn't lack any competitive spirit and the reason they lost is more due to the fact that they couldn't break the zone. It exposed Jaren Jackson and Izzo more than it exposed Miles. What did you want him to do? break down the zone by himself? he didn't have the ball much at all either.

It's impressive that Nova play such a team oriented basketball. This however doesn't say anything about Mikal as an individual. It's about team concept. all of Nova players played on a very high level, not just Mikal. I have seen Mikal look clueless at times on the floor and was being told what to do as far as screening/ cutting goes. Nova just played on a different level than the other college programs. They played some GSW basketball. Who says Mikal is going to play the same way in the NBA? What if he is going to be parked in the corner? NBA in the playoffs has become very iso heavy. Is he going to tell his coach to run more pin downs for him?

I'm plenty bearish on Mikal's overall offensive potential, but I think he'll be a solid shooter if nothing else. 40% from 3, 85% from the line for his college career on pretty high volume is a very good sign.

I don't think he'll be a high-level defensive player right away, but he could easily be average or modestly above average for a 2/3, in large part because I don't think he'll be as prone to typical "rookie mistakes" as younger, less experienced rookies who didn't fully buy in on defense in college.

Agree that Miles and Ayton failed for different reasons in the tourney, but I think Miles's failure was concerning in its own way. 18 shot attempts 0 assists tells the story. My memory's hazy at this point, but I'm honestly not sure if he initiated a single play that led to points. Similarly, 18 shot attempts and 1 assist in their Big 10 tourney loss to Michigan. In general, he just didn't look quick or crafty enough with the ball to cause any problems against a locked-in and motivated defense. As a result he resorted to chucking a lot of jumpers, and to his credit he does make those at a not-too-bad percentage, but that's not winning basketball.
 
If Lebron does decide to leave what are some good Kevin Love trade options involving 1st round picks? If Lebron does leave for LA and chance of a sign any trade involving a couple players plus picks?
 
To give the Lakers a late first rd pick, while also giving them the best player in the trade on an expiring, while taking back Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. will go down in infamy....

To help the Lakers clear that space they should’ve been attaching picks on their end....I said it day of....one of worst trades I’ve ever seen.
 
Damn.....I took my eyes off player draft news when the Finals were going on.

To rub salt in the Lakers trade wound, I just saw Divincenzo decided to stay in this draft.

Between he, Allen, Huerter, Okogie....so many good wing options in that mid 20's range. Ouch.
I was about to say I really wish we had our late 1st right now the more I explore the draft. The 8th pick could get traded or be used on a big. But I really wish we could add one of these mid-late 1st long, athletic defensive wing/forward type role players to this team. We could use one in the worst way. Or even another shooter like you say.

Sixers got so many dang picks. That team will be so loaded with young talent.
 
I give knox the 'tim thomas life time tease' award. I think he will always be that guy who next year will be a break out year

When I went back and looked at Kentucky after the college season, I found myself appreciating SGA and Knox a lot more than I expected to. Sometimes Calipari and the NBA's 31st pro franchise just out-talent the rest of the NCAA and it makes me hate them. This group had a team that wasnt crazy talented but got better with time. Knox reminded me of Harrison Barnes as a freshman: at first I thought he was overrated. By the end of the season I saw that he just needed a longer development process to fully realize his perimeter game, even if he wouldn't be an elite player. Knox is the same, which means his floor is an interesting small ball four who could become a well rounded switching wing in time.
 
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When I went back and looked at Kentucky after the college season, I found myself appreciating SGA and Knox a lot more than I expected to. Sometimes Calipari and the NBA's 31st pro franchise just out-talent the rest of the NCAA and it makes me hate them. This group had a team that wasntw crazy talented but got better with time. Knox reminded me of Harrison Barnes as a freshman: at first I thought he was underrated. By the end of the season I saw that he just needed a longer development process to fully realize his perimeter game, even if he wouldn't be an elite player. Knox is the same, which means his floor is an interesting small ball four who could become a well rounded switching wing in time.

He is super Young. I think he is the youngest player in the draft?

He has a lot of work to do, but he has some things working for him. Just wished he played with more fire and competitiveness...though in that regard you can blame his age???
 
Poor man's Wiggins, and I hated Wiggins, so I hate him more :chuckle:

Surprised he's not getting more mainstream support as a potential top-10 pick, though.
 

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