Derek
Table Setter
- Joined
- Jan 10, 2009
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Keith Law:
23. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Age: 21 (8/2/1997)
Bats: R | Throws: R
6-foot-5 | 165 pounds
Top level: Double-A | 2018 rank: 19
McKenzie works with 92-96 mph velocity, big spin on his breaking ball and huge extension out front that makes everything play up. I saw him no-hit Wilmington in 2017 while he was still throwing 88-92 mph because hitters were constantly late on his fastball. His changeup is a clear third pitch. It's an action changeup that he turns over well but that some hitters will pick up out of his hand, though left-handed batters didn't do damage against him last year. It's no worse than No. 2 starter stuff, and you can squint a little and see someone who would sit atop a lot of rotations.
The rub is that McKenzie looks like he might slip through the bars of a storm grate. Longstanding concerns about the durability of someone so slight of build came up when he missed the first two months of 2018 with a forearm strain, which wasn't serious and never required surgery, but questions resurfaced about whether he could hold up as a starter. He has the stuff and some natural elements from his height that you can't replicate. His 2019 season will likely be as much about staying healthy for 25 starts as anything else he needs to do.
43. Nolan Jones, 3B, Cleveland Indians
Age: 21 (5/7/98)
Bats: L | Throws: R
6-foot-4 | 185 pounds
Top level: High-A | 2018 rank: 80
Jones was a first-round talent in the 2016 draft, No. 11 on my board that year, but he slipped into the second round on signability concerns. Cleveland, who took Will Benson in the first round, drafted Jones and paid him $2.25 million to sign. Benson has flopped, but Jones has emerged as the team's top position-player prospect on the heels of a huge year split between Low- and High-A in which he showed a broad, balanced mix of tools and skills at the plate. He drew 89 walks last year, sixth-most in the minors, behind five players older than he was, only one of whom might be considered a prospect at this point.
Jones is tall, and his swing can get big, but he has strong hands and can keep them inside the ball to go the other way, so while I expect some swing-and-miss, I don't expect Joey Gallo-level strikeout rates, and he is already showing plus power that should end up at least at a 70 grade. The debate on Jones is his ultimate position; he's athletic enough for third base but very big for his age, and there's a real chance that he has to move off the dirt to right field, where his plus-plus arm would be an asset. There's a lot here that reminds me of Kris Bryant around the same age -- similar swings, similar size and athleticism, though Jones bulked up younger than Bryant did. I think even in right field, he'll be a high-OBP/30-homer guy, with his ceiling really defined by how well he controls his swing-and-miss as he moves up to Double-A.
74. Bo (Noah) Naylor, C/3B, Cleveland Indians
Age: 19 (2/21/00)
Bats: L | Throws: R
6-foot | 195 pounds
Top level: Rookie | 2018 rank: Ineligible
Naylor was 14th on my draft board but was still available for Cleveland at pick 29, where it had to be ecstatic to land one of the draft's best position player prospects -- even though it's still not clear what position he'll play. Naylor caught and played in the infield as an amateur, and Cleveland plans to develop him as a catcher while also giving him reps at third base, with second base always a possibility down the line, to maintain some flexibility. He is a superb athlete who gets raves for his on-field intelligence, and he has real tools in a plus arm, plus speed and real feel to hit, rolling right out of the draft to post a .381 OBP in the Arizona Rookie League that would have ranked in the top 20 had he qualified.
He is a work in progress as a receiver, with plenty of arm strength and the agility for the position but lacking the receiving and game-calling skills he'll need to catch. I have little doubt he would be at least a 55-grade defender at third or second and that his bat will play at any of those spots; but of course, he has the highest upside if he remains behind the dish. Regardless of his position, Cleveland seems to have landed a good regular, maybe a lot more, at a spot in the draft when someone with his upside should have been long gone.
Baseball America:
44. Triston McKenzie
TRACK RECORD: In the spring of 2015, McKenzie presented scouts with a difficult assignment. He had an excellent amateur track record and impressive present stuff, but he was listed at a rail-thin 6-foot-5, 165 pounds. While some questioned how much weight his frame will ever carry, the Indians drafted McKenzie 42nd overall and have been rewarded for the decision. He has built an impressive track record of success in pro ball. In 2017 alone, he pitched in the Futures Game, was named Carolina League pitcher of the year and ranked second in the minors with 186 strikeouts. He was slowed by forearm soreness in 2018 that the Indians took a very conservative approach with, delaying his debut until June. Still, he was pitching in Double-A Akron as a 20-year-old and put together a strong summer despite being one of the youngest players in the Eastern League. The concerns about his thin frame remain today, but his track record and stuff are such that they have been lessened
SCOUTING REPORT: McKenzie’s fastball can get up to 95 mph and in each of the last two years it averaged about 92 mph. He held that velocity throughout the season and while it would dip during starts, he also showed the ability to reach back for more and finish strong at the end of his outings. His plus fastball plays up and gets swings and misses thanks to the extension in his delivery and the high spin rate he generates. He also has a good feel for spinning his plus curveball and gets good depth on the offering, which can be an out pitch. McKenzie’s changeup continues to develop and has the potential to be an above-average offering. He is starting to learn how to sequence and attack hitters with his full arsenal. He commands the ball well and earns praise for his makeup and understanding of his craft. McKenzie’s biggest area for development remains improving his physique to allow him to manage a starter’s workload.
THE FUTURE: McKenzie will pitch nearly all of 2019 as a 21-year-old and is speeding toward the big leagues, where he has the upside to be a frontline starter. To this point he hasn’t been challenged much and he has a chance to earn a spot in the big leagues in 2019. But with Cleveland’s crowded big league rotation, the Indians can afford to let McKenzie force the issue with a strong showing in the upper levels of the minors.
96. Nolan Jones
TRACK RECORD: Jones was regarded as one of the best prep hitters in the 2016 draft class, and he’s lived up to his amateur reputation in pro ball. After leading the New York-Penn League in OPS (.912) in 2017, he followed that up with a strong year at two Class A stops in his first taste of full-season ball.
SCOUTING REPORT: Jones has an easy lefthanded swing and uses the whole field to hit. He is a patient hitter who led all Indians minor leaguers in walks (89), though his patience also means plenty of deep counts. He will always strike out fairly often as a result. He has plus raw power and in 2018 began to turn what had previously mostly been doubles pop into over-the-fence strength. Jones fits the third base profile, but he will need to improve defensively to stay at the hot corner. He has a plus arm but needs to improve his glove work and infield actions, especially when ranging to his right. If he did need to move, his athleticism and average speed should play in the outfield, though some believe he is destined for first base.
THE FUTURE: Jones has impressed the Indians with his all-around offensive game and work ethic. He likely will return to high Class A Lynchburg to begin 2019.
Baseball Prospectus:
43. Triston McKenzie
93. Luis Oviedo
23. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Age: 21 (8/2/1997)
Bats: R | Throws: R
6-foot-5 | 165 pounds
Top level: Double-A | 2018 rank: 19
McKenzie works with 92-96 mph velocity, big spin on his breaking ball and huge extension out front that makes everything play up. I saw him no-hit Wilmington in 2017 while he was still throwing 88-92 mph because hitters were constantly late on his fastball. His changeup is a clear third pitch. It's an action changeup that he turns over well but that some hitters will pick up out of his hand, though left-handed batters didn't do damage against him last year. It's no worse than No. 2 starter stuff, and you can squint a little and see someone who would sit atop a lot of rotations.
The rub is that McKenzie looks like he might slip through the bars of a storm grate. Longstanding concerns about the durability of someone so slight of build came up when he missed the first two months of 2018 with a forearm strain, which wasn't serious and never required surgery, but questions resurfaced about whether he could hold up as a starter. He has the stuff and some natural elements from his height that you can't replicate. His 2019 season will likely be as much about staying healthy for 25 starts as anything else he needs to do.
43. Nolan Jones, 3B, Cleveland Indians
Age: 21 (5/7/98)
Bats: L | Throws: R
6-foot-4 | 185 pounds
Top level: High-A | 2018 rank: 80
Jones was a first-round talent in the 2016 draft, No. 11 on my board that year, but he slipped into the second round on signability concerns. Cleveland, who took Will Benson in the first round, drafted Jones and paid him $2.25 million to sign. Benson has flopped, but Jones has emerged as the team's top position-player prospect on the heels of a huge year split between Low- and High-A in which he showed a broad, balanced mix of tools and skills at the plate. He drew 89 walks last year, sixth-most in the minors, behind five players older than he was, only one of whom might be considered a prospect at this point.
Jones is tall, and his swing can get big, but he has strong hands and can keep them inside the ball to go the other way, so while I expect some swing-and-miss, I don't expect Joey Gallo-level strikeout rates, and he is already showing plus power that should end up at least at a 70 grade. The debate on Jones is his ultimate position; he's athletic enough for third base but very big for his age, and there's a real chance that he has to move off the dirt to right field, where his plus-plus arm would be an asset. There's a lot here that reminds me of Kris Bryant around the same age -- similar swings, similar size and athleticism, though Jones bulked up younger than Bryant did. I think even in right field, he'll be a high-OBP/30-homer guy, with his ceiling really defined by how well he controls his swing-and-miss as he moves up to Double-A.
74. Bo (Noah) Naylor, C/3B, Cleveland Indians
Age: 19 (2/21/00)
Bats: L | Throws: R
6-foot | 195 pounds
Top level: Rookie | 2018 rank: Ineligible
Naylor was 14th on my draft board but was still available for Cleveland at pick 29, where it had to be ecstatic to land one of the draft's best position player prospects -- even though it's still not clear what position he'll play. Naylor caught and played in the infield as an amateur, and Cleveland plans to develop him as a catcher while also giving him reps at third base, with second base always a possibility down the line, to maintain some flexibility. He is a superb athlete who gets raves for his on-field intelligence, and he has real tools in a plus arm, plus speed and real feel to hit, rolling right out of the draft to post a .381 OBP in the Arizona Rookie League that would have ranked in the top 20 had he qualified.
He is a work in progress as a receiver, with plenty of arm strength and the agility for the position but lacking the receiving and game-calling skills he'll need to catch. I have little doubt he would be at least a 55-grade defender at third or second and that his bat will play at any of those spots; but of course, he has the highest upside if he remains behind the dish. Regardless of his position, Cleveland seems to have landed a good regular, maybe a lot more, at a spot in the draft when someone with his upside should have been long gone.
Baseball America:
44. Triston McKenzie
TRACK RECORD: In the spring of 2015, McKenzie presented scouts with a difficult assignment. He had an excellent amateur track record and impressive present stuff, but he was listed at a rail-thin 6-foot-5, 165 pounds. While some questioned how much weight his frame will ever carry, the Indians drafted McKenzie 42nd overall and have been rewarded for the decision. He has built an impressive track record of success in pro ball. In 2017 alone, he pitched in the Futures Game, was named Carolina League pitcher of the year and ranked second in the minors with 186 strikeouts. He was slowed by forearm soreness in 2018 that the Indians took a very conservative approach with, delaying his debut until June. Still, he was pitching in Double-A Akron as a 20-year-old and put together a strong summer despite being one of the youngest players in the Eastern League. The concerns about his thin frame remain today, but his track record and stuff are such that they have been lessened
SCOUTING REPORT: McKenzie’s fastball can get up to 95 mph and in each of the last two years it averaged about 92 mph. He held that velocity throughout the season and while it would dip during starts, he also showed the ability to reach back for more and finish strong at the end of his outings. His plus fastball plays up and gets swings and misses thanks to the extension in his delivery and the high spin rate he generates. He also has a good feel for spinning his plus curveball and gets good depth on the offering, which can be an out pitch. McKenzie’s changeup continues to develop and has the potential to be an above-average offering. He is starting to learn how to sequence and attack hitters with his full arsenal. He commands the ball well and earns praise for his makeup and understanding of his craft. McKenzie’s biggest area for development remains improving his physique to allow him to manage a starter’s workload.
THE FUTURE: McKenzie will pitch nearly all of 2019 as a 21-year-old and is speeding toward the big leagues, where he has the upside to be a frontline starter. To this point he hasn’t been challenged much and he has a chance to earn a spot in the big leagues in 2019. But with Cleveland’s crowded big league rotation, the Indians can afford to let McKenzie force the issue with a strong showing in the upper levels of the minors.
96. Nolan Jones
TRACK RECORD: Jones was regarded as one of the best prep hitters in the 2016 draft class, and he’s lived up to his amateur reputation in pro ball. After leading the New York-Penn League in OPS (.912) in 2017, he followed that up with a strong year at two Class A stops in his first taste of full-season ball.
SCOUTING REPORT: Jones has an easy lefthanded swing and uses the whole field to hit. He is a patient hitter who led all Indians minor leaguers in walks (89), though his patience also means plenty of deep counts. He will always strike out fairly often as a result. He has plus raw power and in 2018 began to turn what had previously mostly been doubles pop into over-the-fence strength. Jones fits the third base profile, but he will need to improve defensively to stay at the hot corner. He has a plus arm but needs to improve his glove work and infield actions, especially when ranging to his right. If he did need to move, his athleticism and average speed should play in the outfield, though some believe he is destined for first base.
THE FUTURE: Jones has impressed the Indians with his all-around offensive game and work ethic. He likely will return to high Class A Lynchburg to begin 2019.
Baseball Prospectus:
43. Triston McKenzie
93. Luis Oviedo