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2017-2018 Around the NBA

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Just wrote an article about Jonas Valanciunas's poor defense.

https://rotoden.com/2017/07/19/jonas-valanciunas-defense-hurts-toronto-raptors/

A friend recently asked me about Jonas Valanciunas’s defense for the Toronto Raptors. I watch a lot of Toronto, and always felt Jonas is underwhelming defensively, and the general analytics support that. Valanciunas’s DRPM (ESPN’s catch-all analytic) ranks as 43rd out of 65 NBA centers. Further, even if you want to look at a stat that puts greater emphasis on defensive rebounds and blocks, such as defensive box plus/minus (DBPM), Jonas ranks as a below average center. So, after that initial easy research, I dug into some lineup and point per possession data.

JV played 81% of his 2016-17 minutes with DeMar DeRozan. During those minutes, the Raptors gave up 1.127 points per possession. Yet, during the minutes DeRozan played without JV, the Raptors allowed 1.093 points per possession.

But, here is where it gets interesting, when Jonas played without DeRozan, Toronto allowed 1.043 points per possession.

This resulted in me looking into some more specific numbers. The most common lineup with Valanciunas and without DeRozan was Lowry-Powell-Carroll-Patterson-JV. This group allowed 1.048 points per possession. When you take that exact same lineup, and replace JV with Nogueira (the most used sub for that lineup), the Raptors allowed only one point per possession.

Moreover, in general, without DeRozan, Lowry-Patterson-JV allowed, as a three-man unit, 1.032 points per possession. Yet, with DeRozan replacing JV, the Raptors allowed only .99 points per possession on 451 defensive possessions.

Now, when you take the Nogueira lineup, and remove him and replace with DeRozan, the Raptors allowed only .88 points per possession (this lineup was used in the playoffs against the Bucks).

Finally, a lineup with Lowry-DeRozan-Tucker-Patterson-Ibaka allowed 1.044 points per possession. But, when you take the last lineup, remove DeRozan, and replace him with Cory Joseph, the Raptors allowed only .77 points per possession.

TAKEAWAYS:
1) Jonas and DeRozan are both terrible defenders. Casey knew that and played them together in offense-heavy lineups.

2) Nonetheless, when JV sat, the Raptors were an elite defensive team, regardless if DeRozan played or not. With JV, though, Toronto fell to a slightly below-average defensive team.

3) It is time for the Toronto Raptors to move on from Valanciunas. The fact is, he will never become a good defender, and this has to do with where he struggles.

SO WHY THE BAD DEFENSE?
As the big defender in a pick-and-roll (including pops, rolls, and switches), JV ranks in the bottom 28% of all NBA defenders, allowing .94 points per possession. In the modern NBA, those numbers are unsalvageable. Let’s look at some video to understand why:


This one clip demonstrates that Valanciunas really struggles defending smaller players. He simply does not have the foot speed to stay in front of them. Additionally, he is long with a huge wingspan, but is bad at using his length to get stops. Jonas averages forces 1.7 turnovers per 48 minutes. Using basketball-reference data, that ranks as 56th of 72 NBA centers. Consequently, it has become easy for teams to attack Valanciunas in the pick-and-roll.

Furthermore, per Synergy, the only two play-types where Valanciunas ranks above average is when he defends post-ups and isolations. On no other play-type (transition, cuts, spot-ups, off-ball screens, etc.) is Jonas an even neutral defender. For example, below is a clip of Jonas playing awful transition defense.


The problem is twofold: JV’s footspeed is awful, and his effort is limited. But, the latter problem does not seem to be related to not caring. Simply put, he just does not have that much energy.

Further unfortunate news for the Raptors is that Valanciunas will have a limited trade market. Very few teams want a one-way big who cannot play against the Cavs, Rockets, Celtics, or Warriors.

Given that limitation, it may make sense for the Raptors to give Jonas a bench role, similar to what Milwaukee did with Greg Monroe. More than likely, that decision will result in great similarities with Jahlil Okafor than Monroe, but it is necessary for Toronto’s future success.
 
How Dell Demps has kept his job for this long is a bigger mystery than alien abudctions. I mean dude will try to start Rondo and Jrue??! I get that Rondo is right with Boogie but man.
 
I like how he's trying to make the tough guy face afterwards but at the end you can tell he's trying to contain his inner giddiness.
 

Quick Grant selection update. I'd be interesting to see if he can crack the rotation.
 
This is the NBA offseason/preseason that keeps on giving. Top 4 in each conference.

1) Cavs - This team feels motivated. I think we now can win games with LeBron resting.

2) Raptors - I think with some more time to gel, the Raptors will actually be pretty good this year. CJ Miles is an underrated pickup for them. Regular season isn't really the issue for them. Playoffs? Different story.

3) Celtics - Compared to other teams in the East, they have too much talent to not be a high seed. I think they will struggle at first though. They really lost their defensive identity with Bradley and Crowder gone. A lot depends on how much Brown and Tatum bring this year.

4) Bucks - This could be the year they really start to put some things together. I like their depth. Thon looked like a great young player last year. Middleton and Brogdon are very good. And Giannis is a stud.

Wizards will be good too but their depth is not good, imo. Tim Frazier, Jodie Meeks, Kelly Oubre? Shows you just how ridiculous our team is with JR, Crowder, and when IT is healthy, Rose off the bench.

76ers will be a fun young team to watch.

1) Warriors - I hate them, you hate them but yeah.

2) Rockets - CP3 and Harden are going to win games. Unlike the Thunder they have a deep bench with guys like Nene, PJ Tucker, Tarik Black, Eric Gordon, and Mbah a Moute.

3) Thunder - George and RW could be deadly, imo. Melo fits that team well. They don't have much depth but the Thunder always seem to be able to find young guys to plug holes. RW, Roberson, George, Melo, Adams is a great starting 5. I just think a bench of Patrick Patterson, Raymond Felton, Jerami Grant is going to result in some losses.

4) Spurs - Just the ultimate plugin and play team. Rudy Gay is an interesting signing.

T-Wolves will be interesting as well with additions of Butler, Taj, Teague, and Crawford. Pelicans continue their science experiment and I think the Clippers might be surprisingly solid. Griffin, Gallo, Jordan, Beverley, Lou Williams is interesting.

What say you?
 
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This is the NBA offseason/preseason that keeps on giving. Top 4 in each conference.

1) Cavs - This team feels motivated. I think we now can win games with LeBron resting.

2) Raptors - I think with some more time to gel, the Raptors will actually be pretty good this year. CJ Miles is an underrated pickup for them. Regular season isn't really the issue for them. Playoffs? Different story.

3) Celtics - Compared to other teams in the East, they have too much talent to not be a high seed. I think they will struggle at first though. They really lost their defensive identity with Bradley and Crowder gone. A lot depends on how much Brown and Tatum bring this year.

4) Bucks - This could be the year they really start to put some things together. I like their depth. Thon looked like a great young player last year. Middleton and Brogdon are very good. And Giannis is a stud.

Wizards will be good too but their depth is not good, imo. Tim Frazier, Jodie Meeks, Kelly Oubre? Shows you just how ridiculous our team is with JR, Crowder, and when IT is healthy, Rose off the bench.

76ers will be a fun young team to watch.

1) Warriors - I hate them, you hate them but yeah.

2) Rockets - CP3 and Harden are going to win games. Unlike the Thunder they have a deep bench with guys like Nene, PJ Tucker, Tarik Black, Eric Gordon, and Mbah a Moute.

3) Thunder - George and RW could be deadly, imo. Melo fits that team well. They don't have much depth but the Thunder always seem to be able to find young guys to plug holes. RW, Roberson, George, Melo, Adams is a great starting 5. I just think a bench of Patrick Patterson, Raymond Felton, Jerami Grant is going to result in some losses.

4) Spurs - Just the ultimate plugin and play team. Rudy Gay is an interesting signing.

T-Wolves will be interesting as well with additions of Butler, Taj, Teague, and Crawford. Pelicans continue their science experiment and I think the Clippers might be surprisingly solid. Griffin, Gallo, Jordan, Beverley, Lou Williams is interesting.

What say you?

It will be a great battle between HOU and OKC for that second seed.

Ideally GSW faces two of HOU, OKC and SAS in the semis and WCF.

Who do you think the 8th Seed in the West will be?
 
Not-so-bold prediction: Ball will average <10 points on <40% shooting, but ESPN will somehow spin his 6 assists and 6 rebounds per game into a ROY argument anyway.
 
So does that mean that Presti et al don't need to worry about Russ leaving?

Just thinking of a scenario where things don't work out for whatever reason and by January the look like they won't be able to compete. Does that prod the to Cash in on the ridiculously cheap PG and Melo trades? Without having to make "what will Russ think" part of the equation.
 

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Episode 3:11: "Clipping Bucks."
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