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2018 Draft Prospects Thread

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thestatman said:
Nobody cares about Josh Rosen. McCloughan and Dorsey have all but turned in the card. They are going to select the best quarterback of the lot. Mayfield to the Browns. Finally they get it right.

Would also consider trading number 4 to the Bills for their 21 and 22. Buffalo needs a quarterback. Buffalo has learned the hard way that drafting inaccurate college quarterbacks ( Tyrod Tailor 57%) never works out. Kizer had similar numbers.
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That's an awful trade, you don't get enough picks back to go from 4 to 21.


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Barkley is beyond overhyped.. Even if he was the best running back to come out in 30 years I’d still prefer an elite corner or safety...

I’ll take a quality receiver and even a tightend for short yardage before an elite level back..

I’m watching teams win the super bowl with LaGarett Blount for goodness sakes... I’m not seeing AP in a super bowl, never Tomlinson— nor have I seen Bell or McCoy or Gurley etc...

Nobody knows how long the Browns rebuild is going to take ? I’m sure as hell not wasting one of these top 4 picks on a position with the shortest shelf life when I’m in the infancy stages of rebuilding my roster...Granted I understand the Browns could snap a finger and be a double digit win team within 2 years— but there’s so much uncertainty with the QB position and the Head Coach that I really can’t take that chance..

Perhaps the Giants could snag Barkey (even tho they need a QB to groom) and you could see him being a major differences maker for a team like that from day 1... Just doesn’t make sense for the Browns
 
PIP said:
Barkley is beyond overhyped.. Even if he was the best running back to come out in 30 years I’d still prefer an elite corner or safety...

I’ll take a quality receiver and even a tightend for short yardage before an elite level back..

I’m watching teams win the super bowl with LaGarett Blount for goodness sakes... I’m not seeing AP in a super bowl, never Tomlinson— nor have I seen Bell or McCoy or Gurley etc...

Nobody knows how long the Browns rebuild is going to take ? I’m sure as hell not wasting one of these top 4 picks on a position with the shortest shelf life when I’m in the infancy stages of rebuilding my roster...Granted I understand the Browns could snap a finger and be a double digit win team within 2 years— but there’s so much uncertainty with the QB position and the Head Coach that I really can’t take that chance..

Perhaps the Giants could snag Barkey (even tho they need a QB to groom) and you could see him being a major differences maker for a team like that from day 1... Just doesn’t make sense for the Browns
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Bingo!
 
Can we please not act like the shelf life of elite RB's is any less than elite DB's?

DB's play longer but fall off a fucking cliff with regards to production relatively quick.
 
Triplethreat said:
Can we please not act like the shelf life of elite RB's is any less than elite DB's?

DB's play longer but fall off a fucking cliff with regards to production relatively quick.
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Evidence is greater than opinion.
 
Phills14 said:
https://www.statista.com/statistics...areer-length-in-the-national-football-league/

Average career length in the NFL according to the NFLPA is 3.3 seasons

Punters & Kickers: 4.87 years
Quarterbacks: 4.44 years
Cornerbacks: 2.94
Wide Receivers: 2.81
Running Backs: 2.57
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Pretty marked difference.

And that’s simply average career length.

There is no evidence to suggest that elite players lose their elite status more often than elite running backs.


Not sure there is another position on the field so dependent on other positions more than RB. We can develop an offensive line which produces good running backs, but there is maybe less than 3 backs who have ever produced at an elite clip without a good offensive line.
 
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Phills14 said:
https://www.statista.com/statistics...areer-length-in-the-national-football-league/

Average career length in the NFL according to the NFLPA is 3.3 seasons

Punters & Kickers: 4.87 years
Quarterbacks: 4.44 years
Cornerbacks: 2.94
Wide Receivers: 2.81
Running Backs: 2.57
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Raw, aggregated length of career can be misleading, though. Guys leave the league all the time not because their skills have diminished, but because teams have seen that their playing ability has plateaued at a level not worthy of keeping them. And that isn't position dependent, so it will tend to pull all those stats towards the mean, and mask age-related declines in performance. QB's take longer to develop/plateau, so teams tend to keep them around for longer before cutting ties.

Probably the better analysis -- which I'm too lazy to do -- is to look for the average ages of the top 10 or so performers at each position. My guess is that is where you'd see that the better RB's tend to be younger than their comparators at other positions. But again, it's going to take someone more diligent than me to confirm/reject that with stats.
 
Triplethreat said:
Can we please not act like the shelf life of elite RB's is any less than elite DB's?

DB's play longer but fall off a fucking cliff with regards to production relatively quick.
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That's true for CB's. Safeties seem to last a bit longer, and of course some of the good CB's shift over to FS later in their careers.
 
The Human Q-Tip said:
Raw, aggregated length of career can be misleading, though. Guys leave the league all the time not because their skills have diminished, but because teams have seen that their playing ability has plateaued at a level not worthy of keeping them. And that isn't position dependent, so it will tend to pull all those stats towards the mean, and mask age-related declines in performance. QB's take longer to develop/plateau, so teams tend to keep them around for longer before cutting ties.

Probably the better analysis -- which I'm too lazy to do -- is to look for the average ages of the top 10 or so performers at each position. My guess is that is where you'd see that the better RB's tend to be younger than their comparators at other positions. But again, it's going to take someone more diligent than me to confirm/reject that with stats.
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Was thinking along these lines as well, and although I hate to use Pro Bowls, potentially thinking of a framework where you calculate average number of Pro Bowl appearances for Pro Bowlers at CB and RB.
 
AZ_ said:
Was thinking along these lines as well, and although I hate to use Pro Bowls, potentially thinking of a framework where you calculate average number of Pro Bowl appearances for Pro Bowlers at CB and RB.
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Pro Bowl probably isn't good, but All-Pro tends to be better. So, just looking at this past year average ages at each position, top 2:

QB -- 32.5
RB -- 24
TE -- 28
WR -- 27
OT -- 31.5
OG -- 27
C -- 31

Edge: -- 29.5
DT: -- 27
LB -- 27
CB -- 25
S -- 26.5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_All-Pro_Team

Average age of RB's is 2.5 years younger than that of any other position except CB, where it is one year younger. So I'll go to 2016 and look just at RB's, WR's, CB's, and S's. We can see that in 2016, the gaps get worse:

RB -- 23
WR -- 28
CB -- 28
S -- 26.5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_All-Pro_Team

I'm sure if you go back to AP, he's going to throw that off because he played at a high level for a freakishly long time. But absent AP, I think the trend likely would hold up pretty well.
 
The Human Q-Tip said:
Pro Bowl probably isn't good, but All-Pro tends to be better. So, just looking at this past year average ages at each position, top 2:

QB -- 32.5
RB -- 24
TE -- 28
WR -- 27
OT -- 31.5
OG -- 27
C -- 31

Edge: -- 29.5
DT: -- 27
LB -- 27
CB -- 25
S -- 26.5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_All-Pro_Team

Average age of RB's is 2.5 years younger than that of any other position except CB, where it is one year younger. So I'll go to 2016 and look just at RB's, WR's, CB's, and S's. We can see that in 2016, the gaps get worse:

RB -- 23
WR -- 28
CB -- 28
S -- 26.5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_All-Pro_Team

I'm sure if you go back to AP, he's going to throw that off because he played at a high level for a freakishly long time. But absent AP, I think the trend likely would hold up pretty well.
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So Rb is youngest, CB is 2nd youngest, so there is some truth both positions are short lives for elite. Makes sense.

Thing is I think elite CB makes a bigger difference to a team in the modern NFL than elite RB, and no one has come up with evidence to refute that imo. The whole Superbowl with average rb's is exactly the point which was made a few posts ago.
 
What is everyone’s thoughts on Kirk as a WR. I loved his burst as a freshmen and sophomore, but worry he might be a better athlete than wr. I am still interested. Thoughts?
 
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ajz20 said:
What is everyone’s thoughts on Kirk as a WR. I loved his burst as a freshmen and sophomore, but worry he might be a better athlete than wr. I am still interested. Thoughts?
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He is supposed to have great hands and a good route runner, so I am hearing the opposite as he might not be quick enough for the slot at the pro level.

I think the combine will be a big deal to him as slot is all about quick separation. I am interested too since I believe his attributes to be almost the exact opposite.
 
Lee said:
He is supposed to have great hands and a good route runner, so I am hearing the opposite as he might not be quick enough for the slot at the pro level.

I think the combine will be a big deal to him as slot is all about quick separation. I am interested too since I believe his attributes to be almost the exact opposite.
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His best trait right now is probably punt returner and deep threat. He may run in the 4.3 4.4 range. He may have the body of a slot but not the skills.

I don’t think we are spending a second rounder on a slot wr anyway. You can get those guys in rounds three through 4 sometimes as late as 5.
 
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