Ok, with the first full month in the books, I'm taking a look at some numbers.
Things that concern me:
1. Clevinger isn't missing bats at nearly the rate he did last year.
His K/9 has plummeted from 10.13 to 6.81. Opposing batters are making contact 86.4% of the time when they swing at a Clevinger pitch in the strike zone compared to just 80.6% last year. However, he's walking far less guys, so if he can regain his swing and miss stuff, he could really be something special.
2. Michael Brantley's contact rate.
This one is more intrigue than concern, because in recent years, nobody has come close to putting the ball in play as much as Brantley has so far this year. He is currently walking just 3.2% of the time, and striking out just 5.3% of the time. Both rates are less than half of what they were last year. Closest comp over the last 10 years is Juan Pierre and even he walked 5.7% of the time, and struck out 6.3% of the time. Will be interesting to see what kind of rates he sustains over the course of the season because the current numbers seem unsustainable.
3. Edwin Encarnacion's walk rate
It has dropped from 15.5% last year to just 7% this year. Even during last season's early struggles he was walking a ton. Big power and a big OBP% have been Edwin's primary source of value, and if he's no longer a high OBP% guy, his value takes a big hit. His K% i also up this year from 19.9% to 28.1%. That's to be expected during early season struggles, but the walk rate has me worried.
4. High BABIP guys
Naquin, Zimmer, and E-Gon. Their BABIPs are .419, .365, and .563 which are completely unsustainable. You can hope that like Austin Jackson last year, they can keep it up for a season, but the more likely scenario is they come crashing down. This is especially concerning for Zimmer, because he's already hitting rather poorly. I have confidence in each of these guys long-term, but adjustments need to be made for continued success.
Things that don't concern me:
1. Yonder Alonso and Brandon Guyer
Both guys have unsustainably low BABIPs, so does Edwin for what it's worth, and seem likely to rebounds and be productive hitters on this team. Alonso has already done that to an extent simply due to his power, but I anticipate both guys being positive contributors in the lineup.
2. Carlos Carrasco
Yes, his K-rate is down, but he's still missing just as many bats as ever. The problem right now is pitch sequencing. He's just not stringing things together are the right time. The one thing that stands out to me is that he's pitching inside the strike zone more often this year, up to 51.7% from 47.6%. This seems like something that he and Gomes/Perez need to get together and figure out, and it seems likely that they will. In the meantime, he's still been decent, but we all know he's better than decent.
Things I'm excited about:
1. Jose Ramirez
His walks are way up, his strikeouts are down, he's matching last year's production, and his BABIP is still 66 points lower than it was last year at .253
His performance has been great, and the numbers say it's only going to get better.
2. Trevor Bauer
Yes, he has been the beneficiary of a lower BABIP and HR/FB ratio than ever before in his career, but he's also inducing more swinging strikes than ever before, and it's by a fairly significant amount. 9.2% last year to 12.1% this year. I'm excited to see what kind of season he can put together.
