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2018-2019 Tank Thread

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Ask me closer to draft. Currently outside of the top 2 none really stand out to me. But if PHX is picking 2nd then Barret could fall to us if they take Morant at 2.
Yep if PHO or even CHI are at 2 there is a very strong chance Barrett is there at 3.
 
yes likely in the 20-25 range. got it for taking on Knights bad contract.
Thank God Gilbert is rich, what would we have to include with that pick, to move back in to the top ten?
 
Thank God Gilbert is rich, what would we have to include with that pick, to move back in to the top ten?
Into the top 10? Tough.

Lotto? Possibly. I could see a team desperate to clear space trade for JR & our pick for someone sitting around 13-15.
 
24 games left, 12 against teams with losing records. Not overtaking Chicago could be tough. It would be a disaster not to have a top 3 pick.
 
24 games left, 12 against teams with losing records. Not overtaking Chicago could be tough. It would be a disaster not to have a top 3 pick.

Agreed. Need to tank hard. No reason not to be in the top 2-3. Mystery injury time of year.
 
Every time I look at the tank standings I think:

"What is Phoenix doing? Are they planning on getting the #1 pick for 10 straight years?"

I feel like they've tanked for a decade now. When does it stop?
 
24 games left, 12 against teams with losing records. Not overtaking Chicago could be tough. It would be a disaster not to have a top 3 pick.

Then prepare for disaster. Even the team with the WORST record has only a 40.1% chance at a top three pick.

Tanking is grossly overrated with the revised distribution of ping pong balls.

The worst three finishers have the following percent chances at the top FOUR picks:

14.0%; 13.4%; 12.7%; 12.0%

Fourth-worst:

12.5%; 12.2%; 11.9%; 11.5%

Fifth-worst:

10.5%; 10.5%; 10.6%; 10.5%

Falling from third-worst to fourth-worst would hurt, but not by an enormous amount.

Here's what's really interesting: Previously the bottom half of lottery teams (8-14) only had 82 balls (8.2%) -- now they have 185 balls (18.5%). The WORST team used to have 25% -- so that means they had over three times as many chances to get the #1 overall as 8-14 combined. But now, the 8-14 finishers actually have a BETTER chance to get the #1 pick overall than the WORST team (18.5% vs. 14.0%).

Tank commanders are fighting the last war.
 
Every time I look at the tank standings I think:

"What is Phoenix doing? Are they planning on getting the #1 pick for 10 straight years?"

I feel like they've tanked for a decade now. When does it stop?

Once they draft Doncic
 
Then prepare for disaster. Even the team with the WORST record has only a 40.1% chance at a top three pick.

Tanking is grossly overrated with the revised distribution of ping pong balls.

The worst three finishers have the following percent chances at the top FOUR picks:

14.0%; 13.4%; 12.7%; 12.0%

Fourth-worst:

12.5%; 12.2%; 11.9%; 11.5%

Fifth-worst:

10.5%; 10.5%; 10.6%; 10.5%

Falling from third-worst to fourth-worst would hurt, but not by an enormous amount.

Here's what's really interesting: Previously the bottom half of lottery teams (8-14) only had 82 balls (8.2%) -- now they have 185 balls (18.5%). The WORST team used to have 25% -- so that means they had over three times as many chances to get the #1 overall as 8-14 combined. But now, the 8-14 finishers actually have a BETTER chance to get the #1 pick overall than the WORST team (18.5% vs. 14.0%).

Tank commanders are fighting the last war.

It is different this year, but your standing does set your floor. 1st is no lower than 5, 2 is 6 and so on.
That has value.
 
It is different this year, but your standing does set your floor. 1st is no lower than 5, 2 is 6 and so on.
That has value.

Agreed -- actually, the value differences are much more important if you DON'T land in the top 4. However, in most years the key is landing in those top picks -- 5 vs. 8 is usually not as important as 1 vs. 4. This year is no exception.

I would think Cavalier fans will be extremely disappointed if we're drafting 5th or later even though chances are close to 60% we'll end up with that. "Good thing we tanked or we would have received the 5th pick instead of 8th" -- not sure that will cut a lot of ice around here.
 
I have been going to TANKATHON website which has a lottery simulator and it has been eye-opening in a very bad way.

Folks better be prepared with the concept of us falling as far as pick 7 as it's a very true reality.

Here is the website in the event anyone wants to get sad...

http://www.tankathon.com/
 
24 games left, 12 against teams with losing records. Not overtaking Chicago could be tough. It would be a disaster not to have a top 3 pick.
I hope Koby shares your opinion...would be tragic to have this kind of a year and win some meaningless games down the stretch to take us out of the bottom three
 
Every time I look at the tank standings I think:

"What is Phoenix doing? Are they planning on getting the #1 pick for 10 straight years?"

I feel like they've tanked for a decade now. When does it stop?
Yea how are they doing it? I look at their team and the Cavs and wonder how the hell they are worse?
 
Then prepare for disaster. Even the team with the WORST record has only a 40.1% chance at a top three pick.

Tanking is grossly overrated with the revised distribution of ping pong balls.

The worst three finishers have the following percent chances at the top FOUR picks:

14.0%; 13.4%; 12.7%; 12.0%

Fourth-worst:

12.5%; 12.2%; 11.9%; 11.5%

Fifth-worst:

10.5%; 10.5%; 10.6%; 10.5%

Falling from third-worst to fourth-worst would hurt, but not by an enormous amount.

Here's what's really interesting: Previously the bottom half of lottery teams (8-14) only had 82 balls (8.2%) -- now they have 185 balls (18.5%). The WORST team used to have 25% -- so that means they had over three times as many chances to get the #1 overall as 8-14 combined. But now, the 8-14 finishers actually have a BETTER chance to get the #1 pick overall than the WORST team (18.5% vs. 14.0%).

Tank commanders are fighting the last war.
I get that they want to discourage tanking, but there HAS to be other methods out there. This does make things more exciting but at this point just let every team have an equal chance (in theory).
 

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