2017 NBA Playoff Odds & Betting Thread

[shoes22]

Sorry I was so late in posting this guys, real life got in the way. I have tweaked my formula a little bit since last postseason to calculate these odds, emphasizing raw player efficiency and likely "playoff lineups" over regular season performance. This is what I got:

In the East...
Boston Celtics (1) vs. Chicago Bulls (8)
Celtics in 4: 3.7%
Celtics in 5: 10.91%
Celtics in 6: 10.4%
Celtics in 7: 17.08%
Bulls in 7: 13.98%
Bulls in 6: 21.82%
Bulls in 5: 13.56%
Bulls in 4: 8.55%

Game 1 Odds:
Celtics win 55%/Bulls Win 45%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.75%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 63.28%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.06%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 42.09% likely
Bulls win series: 57.91% likely

Let's get this out of the way first. Yes, my model thinks that the Bulls will upset the Celtics in the first round. I knew this series would project to be close, but the fact that it's this lopsided surprised me as much as anyone. Whether it will actually play out anywhere like this, we'll see.

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Cavs in 4: 19.85%
Cavs in 5: 33.85%
Cavs in 6: 17.56%
Cavs in 7: 17.04%
Pacers in 7: 4.00%
Pacers in 6: 5.45%
Pacers in 5: 1.52%
Pacers in 4: 0.73%

Game 1 Odds:
Cavs win 81%/Pacers Win 19%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 79.42%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 44.05%
Odds series goes 7 games: 21.04%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.44

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 88.3% likely
Pacers win series: 11.7% likely

Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)
Raptors in 4: 7.29%
Raptors in 5: 16.52%
Raptors in 6: 15.19%
Raptors in 7: 18.86%
Bucks in 7: 12.58%
Bucks in 6: 15.74%
Bucks in 5: 8.98%
Bucks in 4: 4.84%

Game 1 Odds:
Raptors win 60%/Bucks Win 40%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.87%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 62.2%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.44%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 57.86% likely
Bucks win series: 42.14% likely

Washington Wizards (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)
Wizards in 4: 15.62%
Wizards in 5: 29.41%
Wizards in 6: 17.9%
Wizards in 7: 19.08%
Hawks in 7: 6.02%
Hawks in 6: 7.93%
Hawks in 5: 2.71%
Hawks in 4: 1.33%

Game 1 Odds:
Wizards win 76%/Hawks Win 24%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 83.05%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 50.93%
Odds series goes 7 games: 25.1%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.59

Overall Odds:
Wizards win series: 82.01% likely
Hawks win series: 17.99% likely


And in the West...
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (8)
Warriors in 4: 35.0%
Warriors in 5: 37.76%
Warriors in 6: 14.71%
Warriors in 7: 9.0%
Trailblazers in 7: 1.35%
Trailblazers in 6: 1.61%
Trailblazers in 5: 0.4%
Trailblazers in 4: 0.17%

Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 87%/Trailblazers Win 13%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 64.83%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 26.67%
Odds series goes 7 games: 10.35%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.02

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 96.47% likely
Trailblazers win series: 3.53% likely

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 26.48%
Spurs in 5: 35.95%
Spurs in 6: 17.1%
Spurs in 7: 13.15%
Grizzlies in 7: 2.69%
Grizzlies in 6: 3.28%
Grizzlies in 5: 0.93%
Grizzlies in 4: 0.42%

Game 1 Odds:
Spurs win 83%/Grizzlies Win 17%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 73.1%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 36.22%
Odds series goes 7 games: 15.84%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.25

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 92.68% likely
Grizzlies win series: 7.32% likely

Houston Rockets (3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (6)
Rockets in 4: 10.5%
Rockets in 5: 24.35%
Rockets in 6: 16.32%
Rockets in 7: 21.49%
Thunder in 7: 8.36%
Thunder in 6: 12.1%
Thunder in 5: 4.51%
Thunder in 4: 2.37%

Game 1 Odds:
Rockets win 72%/Thunder Win 28%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.13%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 58.27%
Odds series goes 7 games: 29.85%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.75

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 72.66% likely
Thunder win series: 27.34% likely

Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
Clippers in 4: 5.99%
Clippers in 5: 18.32%
Clippers in 6: 12.97%
Clippers in 7: 22.6%
Jazz in 7: 10.63%
Jazz in 6: 18.08%
Jazz in 5: 7.21%
Jazz in 4: 4.2%

Game 1 Odds:
Clippers win 68%/Jazz Win 32%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 89.81%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 64.28%
Odds series goes 7 games: 33.23%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.87

Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 59.88% likely
Jazz win series: 40.12% likely

Hopefully this playoffs is more fun than the regular season was, and let's go Cavs!!

 

[FiveThous]

I've got the Bulls winning at +400, I'm hoping your model is also correct!

 

[shoes22]

Here are the updated odds after yesterday's games!

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Cavs in 4: 22.17% (+2.32%)
Cavs in 5: 37.56% (+3.71%)
Cavs in 6: 16.17% (-1.39%)
Cavs in 7: 15.83% (-1.21%)
Pacers in 7: 3.48% (-0.52%)
Pacers in 6: 4.04% (-1.41%)
Pacers in 5: 0.75% (-0.77%)
Pacers in 4: 0.0% (-0.73%)

Game 2 Odds:
Cavs win 82%/Pacers Win 18%

Odds Indiana forces a Game 5: 77.83% (-1.59%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 39.52% (-4.53%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 19.31% (-1.73%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.37 (-0.07)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 91.73% likely (+3.43%)
Pacers win series: 8.27% likely (-3.43%)


Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)
Raptors in 4: 0.0% (-7.29%)
Raptors in 5: 6.13% (-10.39%)
Raptors in 6: 11.25% (-3.94%)
Raptors in 7: 16.91% (-1.95%)
Bucks in 7: 13.83% (+1.25%)
Bucks in 6: 20.76% (+5.02%)
Bucks in 5: 17.51% (+8.53%)
Bucks in 4: 13.61% (+8.77%)

Game 2 Odds:
Raptors win 55%/Bucks Win 45%

Odds Toronto forces a Game 5: 86.39% (-1.48%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 62.75% (+0.55%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 30.74% (-0.7%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.80 (-0.02)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 34.29% likely (-23.59%)
Bucks win series: 65.71% likely (+23.59%)


San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 34.41% (+7.93%)
Spurs in 5: 38.02% (+2.07%)
Spurs in 6: 14.45% (-2.65%)
Spurs in 7: 9.33% (-3.82%)
Grizzlies in 7: 1.78% (-0.91%)
Grizzlies in 6: 1.68% (-1.6%)
Grizzlies in 5: 0.33% (-0.6%)
Grizzlies in 4: 0.0% (-0.42%)

Game 2 Odds:
Spurs win 84%/Grizzlies Win 16%

Odds Memphis forces a Game 5: 65.59% (-7.51%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 27.24% (-8.98%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 11.11% (-4.73%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.04 (-0.21)

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 96.21% likely (+3.53%)
Grizzlies win series: 3.79% likely (-3.53%)


Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
Clippers in 4: 0.0% (-5.99%)
Clippers in 5: 4.88% (-13.44%)
Clippers in 6: 8.24% (-4.73%)
Clippers in 7: 19.28% (-3.32%)
Jazz in 7: 10.38% (-0.25%)
Jazz in 6: 26.56% (+8.48%)
Jazz in 5: 15.41% (+8.2%)
Jazz in 4: 15.25% (+11.05%)

Game 2 Odds:
Clippers win 65%/Jazz Win 35%

Odds Los Angeles forces a Game 5: 84.75% (-5.06%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 64.46% (+0.18%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 29.66% (-3.57%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.79 (-0.08)

Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 32.4% likely (-27.48%)
Jazz win series: 67.6% likely (+27.48%)

 

[FiveThous]

Does your model account for Gobert being hurt?

 

[shoes22]

Does your model account for Gobert being hurt?

Partially. As far as the calculations are concerned he's accounted as a possible rotational player sometime in this series because his return is unknown at this time, but not a starter. If his status changes I will update the odds appropriately at that time.

Anyway, here's how our odds look after last night's games! Virtually everything went as expected.

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Chicago Bulls (8)
Celtics in 4: 0.0% (-3.7%)
Celtics in 5: 3.44% (-7.47%)
Celtics in 6: 6.61% (-3.79%)
Celtics in 7: 13.4% (-3.68%)
Bulls in 7: 11.9% (-2.08%)
Bulls in 6: 24.21% (+2.39%)
Bulls in 5: 20.58% (+7.02%)
Bulls in 4: 19.86% (+11.31%)

Game 2 Odds:
Celtics win 53%/Bulls Win 47%

Odds Boston forces a Game 5: 80.14% (-7.61%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 56.12% (-7.16%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 25.3% (-5.76%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.62 (-0.2)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 23.45% likely (-18.64%)
Bulls win series: 76.55% likely (+18.64%)


Washington Wizards (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)
Wizards in 4: 23.29% (+7.67%)
Wizards in 5: 34.71% (+5.3%)
Wizards in 6: 17.13% (-0.77%)
Wizards in 7: 14.94% (-4.14%)
Hawks in 7: 4.46% (-1.56%)
Hawks in 6: 4.4% (-3.53%)
Hawks in 5: 1.07% (-1.64%)
Hawks in 4: 0.0% (-1.33%)

Game 2 Odds:
Wizards win 77%/Hawks Win 23%

Odds Atlanta forces a Game 5: 76.71% (-6.34%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 40.93% (-10%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 19.4% (-5.7%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.37 (-0.22)

Overall Odds:
Wizards win series: 90.07% likely (+8.06%)
Hawks win series: 9.93% likely (-8.06%)


Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (8)
Warriors in 4: 39.05% (+4.05%)
Warriors in 5: 38.55% (+0.79%)
Warriors in 6: 12.73% (-1.98%)
Warriors in 7: 7.32% (-1.68%)
Trailblazers in 7: 1.11% (-0.24%)
Trailblazers in 6: 1.06% (-0.55%)
Trailblazers in 5: 0.18% (-0.22%)
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0% (-0.17%)

Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 87%/Trailblazers Win 13%

Odds Portland forces a Game 5: 60.95% (-3.88%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 22.22% (-4.45%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 8.43% (-1.92%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.92 (-0.1)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 97.65% likely (+1.18%)
Trailblazers win series: 2.35% likely (-1.18%)


Houston Rockets (3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (6)
Rockets in 4: 15.79% (+5.29%)
Rockets in 5: 33.59% (+9.24%)
Rockets in 6: 16.37% (+0.05%)
Rockets in 7: 20.09% (-1.4%)
Thunder in 7: 5.67% (-2.69%)
Thunder in 6: 7.03% (-5.07%)
Thunder in 5: 1.46% (-3.05%)
Thunder in 4: 0.0% (-2.37%)

Game 2 Odds:
Rockets win 78%/Thunder Win 22%

Odds Oklahoma City forces a Game 5: 84.21% (-2.92%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 49.16% (-9.11%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 25.76% (-4.09%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.59 (-0.16)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 85.84% likely (+13.18%)
Thunder win series: 14.16% likely (-13.18%)

 

[godfather]

I still don't have the Bulls winning the series. I think their lack of outside perimeter shooting will hurt them.

Brad Stevens, IMO, is a good enough head coach to put the handcuffs on the Bulls offense as the series progresses.

I do think it will go 7 though.

 

[Maximus]

Pacers +8.5. Book it!

 

[shoes22]

I still don't have the Bulls winning the series. I think their lack of outside perimeter shooting will hurt them.

Brad Stevens, IMO, is a good enough head coach to put the handcuffs on the Bulls offense as the series progresses.

I do think it will go 7 though.

I think a lot of it depends on how much old man Wade has left in the tank.

 

[shoes22]

Two predictable games last night, two predictable outcomes!

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Cavs in 4: 27.04% (+4.87%)
Cavs in 5: 41.43% (+3.87%)
Cavs in 6: 14.36% (-1.81%)
Cavs in 7: 12.69% (-3.14%)
Pacers in 7: 2.6% (-0.88%)
Pacers in 6: 1.88% (-2.16%)
Pacers in 5: 0.0% (-0.75%)
Pacers in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Cavs win 52%/Pacers Win 48%

Odds Indiana forces a Game 5: 72.96% (-4.87%)
Odds Indiana forces a Game 6: 31.53% (-7.99%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 15.29% (-4.02%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.20 (-0.17)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 95.52% likely (+3.79%)
Pacers win series: 4.48% likely (-3.79%)


San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 39.69% (+5.28%)
Spurs in 5: 39.63% (+1.61%)
Spurs in 6: 11.73% (-2.72%)
Spurs in 7: 6.96% (-2.37%)
Grizzlies in 7: 1.23% (-0.55%)
Grizzlies in 6: 0.76% (-0.92%)
Grizzlies in 5: 0.0% (-0.33%)
Grizzlies in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Spurs win 63%/Grizzlies Win 37%

Odds Memphis forces a Game 5: 60.31% (-5.28%)
Odds Memphis forces a Game 6: 20.68% (-6.56%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 8.19% (-2.92%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.89 (-0.15)

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 98.01% likely (+1.8%)
Grizzlies win series: 1.99% likely (-1.8%)

 

[FiveThous]

Weeeee, let's go Bulls!

 

[Kyrie4MVP0202]

I still don't have the Bulls winning the series. I think their lack of outside perimeter shooting will hurt them.

Brad Stevens, IMO, is a good enough head coach to put the handcuffs on the Bulls offense as the series progresses.

I do think it will go 7 though.

Yeah no...

 

[shoes22]

Hey hey hey, let's check how these series are shaping up after last night!

Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 10.93% (+4.8%)
Raptors in 6: 16.22% (+4.97%)
Raptors in 7: 20.21% (+3.3%)
Bucks in 7: 17.21% (+3.38%)
Bucks in 6: 21.51% (+0.75%)
Bucks in 5: 13.92% (-3.59%)
Bucks in 4: 0.0% (-13.61%)

Game 3 Odds:
Raptors win 45%/Bucks Win 55%

Odds series goes at least 6 games: 75.15% (+12.4%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 37.42% (+6.68%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.13 (+0.33)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 47.36% likely (+13.07%)
Bucks win series: 52.64% likely (-13.07%)


Boston Celtics (1) vs. Chicago Bulls (8)
Celtics in 4: 0.0%
Celtics in 5: 0.0% (-3.44%)
Celtics in 6: 2.23% (-4.38%)
Celtics in 7: 7.53% (-5.87%)
Bulls in 7: 6.95% (-4.95%)
Bulls in 6: 19.2% (-5.01%)
Bulls in 5: 21.84% (+1.26%)
Bulls in 4: 42.25% (+22.39%)

Game 3 Odds:
Celtics win 35%/Bulls Win 65%

Odds Boston forces a Game 5: 57.75% (-22.39%)
Odds Boston forces a Game 6: 35.91% (-20.21%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 14.48% (-10.82%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.08 (-0.54)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 9.76% likely (-13.69%)
Bulls win series: 90.24% likely (+13.69%)


Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
Clippers in 4: 0.0%
Clippers in 5: 8.68% (+3.8%)
Clippers in 6: 12.65% (+4.41%)
Clippers in 7: 25.36% (+6.08%)
Jazz in 7: 12.49% (+2.11%)
Jazz in 6: 27.3% (+0.74%)
Jazz in 5: 13.52% (-1.89%)
Jazz in 4: 0.0% (-15.25%)

Game 3 Odds:
Clippers win 36%/Jazz Win 64%

Odds series goes at least 6 games: 77.8% (+13.34%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 37.85% (+8.19%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.16 (+0.37)

Overall Odds:
Clippers win series: 46.69% likely (+14.29%)
Jazz win series: 53.31% likely (-14.29%)

 

[shoes22]

All games last night played out exactly as expected! My model keeps chugging along.

Washington Wizards (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)
Wizards in 4: 29.16% (+5.87%)
Wizards in 5: 38.75% (+4.04%)
Wizards in 6: 14.81% (-2.32%)
Wizards in 7: 11.8% (-3.14%)
Hawks in 7: 3.33% (-1.13%)
Hawks in 6: 2.15% (-2.25%)
Hawks in 5: 0.0% (-1.07%)
Hawks in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Wizards win 54%/Hawks Win 46%

Odds Atlanta forces a Game 5: 70.84% (-5.87%)
Odds Atlanta forces a Game 6: 32.09% (-8.84%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 15.13% (-4.27%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.18 (-0.19)

Overall Odds:
Wizards win series: 94.52% likely (+4.45%)
Hawks win series: 5.48% likely (-4.45%)


Houston Rockets (3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (6)
Rockets in 4: 24.01% (+8.22%)
Rockets in 5: 37.48% (+3.89%)
Rockets in 6: 15.68% (-0.69%)
Rockets in 7: 14.63% (-5.46%)
Thunder in 7: 4.88% (-0.79%)
Thunder in 6: 3.32% (-3.71%)
Thunder in 5: 0.0% (-1.46%)
Thunder in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Rockets win 49%/Thunder Win 51%

Odds Oklahoma City forces a Game 5: 75.99% (-8.22%)
Odds Oklahoma City forces a Game 6: 38.51% (-10.65%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 19.51% (-6.25%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.34 (-0.25)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 91.8% likely (+5.96%)
Thunder win series: 8.2% likely (-5.96%)


Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (8)
Warriors in 4: 49% (+9.95%)
Warriors in 5: 36.54% (-2.01%)
Warriors in 6: 9.3% (-3.43%)
Warriors in 7: 4.18% (-3.14%)
Trailblazers in 7: 0.63% (-0.48%)
Trailblazers in 6: 0.35% (-0.71%)
Trailblazers in 5: 0.0% (-0.18%)
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 70%/Trailblazers Win 30%

Odds Portland forces a Game 5: 51% (-9.95%)
Odds Portland forces a Game 6: 14.46% (-7.76%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 8.43% (-1.92%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.70 (-0.22)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.02% likely (+1.37%)
Trailblazers win series: 0.98% likely (-1.37%)

 

[FiveThous]

All games last night played out exactly as expected! My model keeps chugging along.

Washington Wizards (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)
Wizards in 4: 29.16% (+5.87%)
Wizards in 5: 38.75% (+4.04%)
Wizards in 6: 14.81% (-2.32%)
Wizards in 7: 11.8% (-3.14%)
Hawks in 7: 3.33% (-1.13%)
Hawks in 6: 2.15% (-2.25%)
Hawks in 5: 0.0% (-1.07%)
Hawks in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Wizards win 54%/Hawks Win 46%

Odds Atlanta forces a Game 5: 70.84% (-5.87%)
Odds Atlanta forces a Game 6: 32.09% (-8.84%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 15.13% (-4.27%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.18 (-0.19)

Overall Odds:
Wizards win series: 94.52% likely (+4.45%)
Hawks win series: 5.48% likely (-4.45%)


Houston Rockets (3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (6)
Rockets in 4: 24.01% (+8.22%)
Rockets in 5: 37.48% (+3.89%)
Rockets in 6: 15.68% (-0.69%)
Rockets in 7: 14.63% (-5.46%)
Thunder in 7: 4.88% (-0.79%)
Thunder in 6: 3.32% (-3.71%)
Thunder in 5: 0.0% (-1.46%)
Thunder in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Rockets win 49%/Thunder Win 51%

Odds Oklahoma City forces a Game 5: 75.99% (-8.22%)
Odds Oklahoma City forces a Game 6: 38.51% (-10.65%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 19.51% (-6.25%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.34 (-0.25)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 91.8% likely (+5.96%)
Thunder win series: 8.2% likely (-5.96%)


Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Portland Trailblazers (8)
Warriors in 4: 49% (+9.95%)
Warriors in 5: 36.54% (-2.01%)
Warriors in 6: 9.3% (-3.43%)
Warriors in 7: 4.18% (-3.14%)
Trailblazers in 7: 0.63% (-0.48%)
Trailblazers in 6: 0.35% (-0.71%)
Trailblazers in 5: 0.0% (-0.18%)
Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 70%/Trailblazers Win 30%

Odds Portland forces a Game 5: 51% (-9.95%)
Odds Portland forces a Game 6: 14.46% (-7.76%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 8.43% (-1.92%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.70 (-0.22)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.02% likely (+1.37%)
Trailblazers win series: 0.98% likely (-1.37%)

Do you use this model for Daily Fantasy sports or sport betting in general @shoes22?

 

[shoes22]

Do you use this model for Daily Fantasy sports or sport betting in general @shoes22?

I bet against a couple Vegas sports books when I notice discrepancies (Bulls-Celts is a great example) but no Daily Fantasy and nothing online right now. I am considering expanding my reach though.

Anyway, as for last night's games...2/3 expected outcomes, with the lone exception being the Grizzlies sneaking one over on the Spurs last night!

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (7)
Cavs in 4: 52% (+24.96%)
Cavs in 5: 39.84% (-1.59%)
Cavs in 6: 4.24% (-10.12%)
Cavs in 7: 3.25% (-9.44%)
Pacers in 7: 0.67% (-1.93%)
Pacers in 6: 0.0% (-1.88%)
Pacers in 5: 0.0%
Pacers in 4: 0.0%

Odds Indiana forces a Game 5: 48% (-24.96%)
Odds Indiana forces a Game 6: 8.16% (-23.37%)
Odds Indiana forces a Game 7: 3.92% (-11.37%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.60 (-0.6)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 99.33% likely (+3.81%)
Pacers win series: 0.67% likely (-3.81%)


Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)
Raptors in 4: 0.0%
Raptors in 5: 0.0% (-10.93%)
Raptors in 6: 8.64% (-7.58%)
Raptors in 7: 17.97% (-2.24%)
Bucks in 7: 15.31% (-1.9%)
Bucks in 6: 30.48% (+8.97%)
Bucks in 5: 27.6% (+13.68%)
Bucks in 4: 0.0%

Game 4 Odds:
Raptors win 40%/Bucks Win 60%

Odds Toronto forces a Game 6: 72.4% (-2.75%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 33.28% (-4.14%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.06 (-0.06)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 26.61% likely (-20.75%)
Bucks win series: 73.39% likely (+20.75%)


San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Spurs in 4: 0.0% (-39.69%)
Spurs in 5: 49.8% (+10.17%)
Spurs in 6: 26.04% (+14.31%)
Spurs in 7: 17.8% (+10.84%)
Grizzlies in 7: 3.64% (+2.41%)
Grizzlies in 6: 2.72% (+1.96%)
Grizzlies in 5: 0.0%
Grizzlies in 4: 0.0%

Game 4 Odds:
Spurs win 60%/Grizzlies Win 40%

Odds Memphis forces a Game 6: 50.2% (+29.52%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 21.44% (+13.25%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.72 (+0.83)

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 93.64% likely (-4.37%)
Grizzlies win series: 6.36% likely (+4.37%)