2017 NBA Playoff Odds & Betting Thread

[shoes22]

Really impressive what the Spurs did last night. I'll post the odds for that series tomorrow as well as bring the rest of the series current, but for today, here's the boring Warriors-Jazz series.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
Warriors in 4: 38.44% (+9.89%)
Warriors in 5: 40.99% (+3.32%)
Warriors in 6: 11.59% (-4.17%)
Warriors in 7: 7.19% (-4.95%)
Jazz in 7: 1.08% (-1.58%)
Jazz in 6: 0.71% (-1.97%)
Jazz in 5: 0.0% (-0.54%)
Jazz in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 62%/Jazz Win 38%

Odds Utah forces a Game 5: 61.56% (-9.89%)
Odds Utah forces a Game 6: 20.57% (-12.67%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 8.27% (-6.53%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.90 (-0.29)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 98.21% likely (+4.09%)
Jazz win series:1.79% likely (-4.09%)

 

[shoes22]

We are all caught up now! Here are how all the series look:

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
Warriors in 4: 62% (+23.56%)
Warriors in 5: 33.06% (-7.93%)
Warriors in 6: 3.06% (-8.53%)
Warriors in 7: 1.63% (-5.56%)
Jazz in 7: 0.25% (-0.83%)
Jazz in 6: 0.0% (-0.71%)
Jazz in 5: 0.0%
Jazz in 4: 0.0%

Odds Utah forces a Game 5: 38% (-23.56%)
Odds Utah forces a Game 6: 4.94% (-15.63%)
Odds Utah forces a Game 7: 1.88% (-6.39%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.45 (-0.45)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.75% likely (+1.54%)
Jazz win series: 0.25% likely (-1.54%)

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Toronto Raptors (3)
Cavs in 4: 60% (+28.64%)
Cavs in 5: 32.8% (-6.13%)
Cavs in 6: 4.32% (-10.04%)
Cavs in 7: 2.36% (-8.35%)
Raptors in 7: 0.52% (-2.33%)
Raptors in 6: 0.0% (-1.79%)
Raptors in 5: 0.0%
Raptors in 4: 0.0%

Odds Toronto forces a Game 5: 40% (-28.64%)
Odds Toronto forces a Game 6: 7.2% (-22.51%)
Odds Toronto forces a Game 7: 2.88% (-10.68%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.50 (-0.62)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 99.48% likely (+4.12%)
Raptors win series: 0.52% likely (-4.12%)

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Washington Wizards (4)
Celtics in 4: 0.0% (-14.44%)
Celtics in 5: 19.38% (-6.06%)
Celtics in 6: 19.09% (+2.97%)
Celtics in 7: 21.77% (+3.94%)
Wizards in 7: 20.92% (+5.73%)
Wizards in 6: 18.84% (+7.86%)
Wizards in 5: 0.0%
Wizards in 4: 0.0%

Game 4 Odds:
Celtics win 38%/Wizards Win 62%

Odds Washington forces a Game 6: 80.62% (+20.5%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 42.69% (+9.67%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.23 (+0.44)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 60.24% likely (-13.59%)
Wizards win series: 39.76% likely (+13.59%)

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Houston Rockets (3)
Spurs in 4: 0.0%
Spurs in 5: 24.8% (+17.15%)
Spurs in 6: 20.96% (+9.26%)
Spurs in 7: 25.15% (+3.73%)
Rockets in 7: 15.41% (+0.53%)
Rockets in 6: 13.68% (-13.88%)
Rockets in 5: 0.0% (-16.79%)
Rockets in 4: 0.0%

Game 4 Odds:
Spurs win 40%/Rockets Win 60%

Odds Houston forces a Game 6: 75.2% (-0.36%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 40.56% (+4.26%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.16 (+0.04)

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 70.91% likely (+30.14%)
Rockets win series: 29.09% likely (-30.14%)

 

[shoes22]

Perfect night in my model's projections last night! We've got some really interesting series and expected outcomes now!

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Washington Wizards (4)
Celtics in 4: 0.0%
Celtics in 5: 0.0% (-19.38%)
Celtics in 6: 17.28% (-1.81%)
Celtics in 7: 23.73% (+1.96%)
Wizards in 7: 25.71% (+4.79%)
Wizards in 6: 33.28% (+14.44%)
Wizards in 5: 0.0%
Wizards in 4: 0.0%

Game 5 Odds:
Celtics win 48%/Wizards Win 52%

Odds series goes 7 games: 49.44% (+6.75%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.49 (+0.26)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 41.01% likely (-19.23%)
Wizards win series: 58.99% likely (+19.23%)

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Houston Rockets (3)
Spurs in 4: 0.0%
Spurs in 5: 0.0% (-24.8%)
Spurs in 6: 22.04% (+1.08%)
Spurs in 7: 30.11% (+4.96%)
Rockets in 7: 21.81% (+6.4%)
Rockets in 6: 26.04% (+12.36%)
Rockets in 5: 0.0%
Rockets in 4: 0.0%

Game 5 Odds:
Spurs win 58%/Rockets Win 42%

Odds series goes 7 games: 51.92% (+11.36%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.52 (+0.36)

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 52.15% likely (-18.76%)
Rockets win series: 47.85% likely (+18.76%)

 

[shoes22]

Last 2 nights had perfect projections! Spurs are favored to win this series, but the Rockets are more than capable of pulling this out.

San Antonio Spurs (2) vs. Houston Rockets (3)
Spurs in 4: 0.0%
Spurs in 5: 0.0%
Spurs in 6: 38% (+15.96%)
Spurs in 7: 33.48% (+3.37%)
Rockets in 7: 28.52% (+6.71%)
Rockets in 6: 0.0% (-26.04%)
Rockets in 5: 0.0%
Rockets in 4: 0.0%

Odds Houston forces a Game 7: 62% (+10.08%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.62 (+0.10)

Overall Odds:
Spurs win series: 71.48% likely (+19.33%)
Rockets win series: 28.52% likely (-19.33%)

 

[shoes22]

I don't know how the Celtics manage to keep doing this, but they took advantage of the Wizards again despite being an inferior opponent.

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Washington Wizards (4)
Celtics in 4: 0.0%
Celtics in 5: 0.0%
Celtics in 6: 40% (+22.72%)
Celtics in 7: 31.8% (+8.07%)
Wizards in 7: 28.2% (+2.49%)
Wizards in 6: 0.0% (-33.28%)
Wizards in 5: 0.0%
Wizards in 4: 0.0%

Odds Washington forces a Game 7: 60% (+10.56%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.6 (+0.11)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 71.8% likely (+30.79%)
Wizards win series: 28.2% likely (-30.79%)

 

[shoes22]

We got a Game 7!

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Washington Wizards (4)
Celtics in 4: 0.0%
Celtics in 5: 0.0%
Celtics in 6: 0.0% (-40%)
Celtics in 7: 54% (+22.2%)
Wizards in 7: 46% (+17.8%)
Wizards in 6: 0.0%
Wizards in 5: 0.0%
Wizards in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 54% likely (-17.8%)
Wizards win series: 46% likely (+17.8%)


And now, your Western Conference Finals!
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)
Warriors in 4: 20.07%
Warriors in 5: 33.26%
Warriors in 6: 17.84%
Warriors in 7: 16.77%
Spurs in 7: 4.19%
Spurs in 6: 5.46%
Spurs in 5: 1.63%
Spurs in 4: 0.78%

Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 80%/Spurs Win 20%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 79.15%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 44.26%
Odds series goes 7 games: 20.96%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.44

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 87.94% likely
Spurs win series: 12.06% likely

 

[shoes22]

Kawhi's injury yesterday robbed us of an exciting Game 1 and what could have been a very interesting series. If the Spurs are going to bounce back they will have to put all their efforts into Game 3 in San Antonio after that 3 day break, because it's highly unlikely they win this next game.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)
Warriors in 4: 22.71% (+2.64%)
Warriors in 5: 38.86% (+5.6%)
Warriors in 6: 15.79% (-2.05%)
Warriors in 7: 15.51% (-1.26%)
Spurs in 7: 2.95% (-1.24%)
Spurs in 6: 3.59% (-1.87%)
Spurs in 5: 0.59% (-1.04%)
Spurs in 4: 0.0% (-0.78%)

Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 84%/Spurs Win 16%

Odds San Antonio forces a Game 5: 77.29% (-1.86%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 37.84% (-6.42%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 18.46% (-2.5%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.34 (-0.10)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 92.87% likely (+4.93%)
Spurs win series: 7.13% likely (-4.93%)

 

[shoes22]

Last night's game went as expected, and now that our opponent is set, here's your Eastern Conference Finals series!

Quick note, my personal human opinion is that the Cavs will win this series in either 4 or 5 games, my model is not quite in agreement due to the way it calculates the probability distribution. It will get there however depending on how the series progresses!

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Celtics in 4: 0.57%
Celtics in 5: 2.85%
Celtics in 6: 2.78%
Celtics in 7: 7.86%
Cavs in 7: 10.86%
Cavs in 6: 27.7%
Cavs in 5: 24.76%
Cavs in 4: 22.62%

Game 1 Odds:
Celtics win 42%/Cavs Win 58%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 76.81%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 49.2%
Odds series goes 7 games: 18.72%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.45

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 14.06% likely
Cavs win series: 85.94% likely

 

[Zeus69]

Did not go back and reread older posts – quick summary as to how your model is projecting thus far?

 

[shoes22]

Did not go back and reread older posts – quick summary as to how your model is projecting thus far?

I'll post a detailed breakdown of the results during the long break between the Conference Finals and Finals. Overall it's been projecting pretty well with the exception of the 1st round, almost singlehandedly because of that damn Bulls-Celtics series

Here's how the ECF looks...like I predicted in my previous post, after one game my model course corrected it's projection pretty quickly.

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Celtics in 4: 0.0% (-0.57%)
Celtics in 5: 0.33% (-2.52%)
Celtics in 6: 0.74% (-2.04%)
Celtics in 7: 2.71% (-5.15%)
Cavs in 7: 4.82% (-6.04%)
Cavs in 6: 18.97% (-8.73%)
Cavs in 5: 27.27% (+2.51%)
Cavs in 4: 45.16% (+22.54%)

Game 2 Odds:
Celtics win 36%/Cavs Win 64%

Odds Boston forces a Game 5: 54.84% (-21.97%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 27.24% (-21.96%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 7.53% (-11.19%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.90 (-0.55)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 3.78% likely (-10.28%)
Cavs win series: 96.22% likely (+10.28%)

Odds for the WCF...
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)
Warriors in 4: 36% (+13.29%)
Warriors in 5: 39.36% (+0.5%)
Warriors in 6: 13.06% (-2.73%)
Warriors in 7: 8.55% (-6.96%)
Spurs in 7: 1.88% (-1.07%)
Spurs in 6: 1.15% (-2.44%)
Spurs in 5: 0.0% (-0.59%)
Spurs in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 60%/Spurs Win 40%

Odds San Antonio forces a Game 5: 64% (-13.29%)
Odds San Antonio forces a Game 6: 24.64% (-13.2%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 10.43% (-8.03%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.99 (-0.35)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 96.97% likely (+4.1%)
Spurs win series: 3.03% likely (-4.1%)

 

[shoes22]

Before I get into last night's results, I want to take a second to address that with Kawhi not playing tonight, my model's odds of the Warriors winning tonight's game have jumped to 86%. I'm not going to bother posting revised odds in light of this adjustment, because it upsets me and frankly I don't give a shit.

Anyway, here's the Eastern Conference Finals bloodbath...it's pretty amusing that the Celtics odds of winning this series is now measured in the hundredths of one percent.

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Celtics in 4: 0.0%
Celtics in 5: 0.0% (-0.33%)
Celtics in 6: 0.01% (-0.73%)
Celtics in 7: 0.06% (-2.65%)
Cavs in 7: 0.3% (-4.52%)
Cavs in 6: 2.92% (-16.05%)
Cavs in 5: 12.07% (-15.2%)
Cavs in 4: 84.64% (+39.48%)

Game 3 Odds:
Celtics win 8%/Cavs Win 92%

Odds Boston forces a Game 5: 15.36% (-39.48%)
Odds Boston forces a Game 6: 3.29% (-23.95%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 0.36% (-7.17%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.19 (-0.71)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 0.07% likely (-3.71%)
Cavs win series: 99.93% likely (+3.71%)

 

[shoes22]

Latest update in the Western Conference snoozefest! Thankfully this should be the last one...

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. San Antonio Spurs (2)
Warriors in 4: 78% (+42%)
Warriors in 5: 19.8% (-19.56%)
Warriors in 6: 1.72% (-11.34%)
Warriors in 7: 0.43% (-8.12%)
Spurs in 7: 0.05% (-1.83%)
Spurs in 6: 0.0% (-1.15%)
Spurs in 5: 0.0%
Spurs in 4: 0.0%

Odds San Antonio forces a Game 5: 22% (-42%)
Odds San Antonio forces a Game 6: 2.2% (-22.44%)
Odds San Antonio forces a Game 7: 0.48% (-9.95%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.25 (-0.74)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.95% likely (+2.98%)
Spurs win series: 0.05% likely (-2.98%)

 

[shoes22]

Hey, the Cavs blew a game because of complacency and LeBron playoff chill mode!
Here's how the series looks now.

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Celtics in 4: 0.0%
Celtics in 5: 0.0%
Celtics in 6: 0.71% (+0.7%)
Celtics in 7: 1.98% (+1.92%)
Cavs in 7: 7.04% (+6.74%)
Cavs in 6: 26.31% (+23.39%)
Cavs in 5: 63.96% (+51.89%)
Cavs in 4: 0.0% (-84.64%)

Game 4 Odds:
Celtics win 18%/Cavs Win 82%

Odds Boston forces a Game 6: 36.04% (+32.75%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 9.02% (+8.66%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.45 (+1.26)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 2.69% likely (+2.62%)
Cavs win series: 97.31% likely (-2.62%)

 

[shoes22]

That's more like it! Here's the (hopefully) final odds before the Finals!

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Celtics in 4: 0.0%
Celtics in 5: 0.0%
Celtics in 6: 0.0% (-0.71%)
Celtics in 7: 0.35% (-1.63%)
Cavs in 7: 1.69% (-5.35%)
Cavs in 6: 14.96% (-11.35%)
Cavs in 5: 83% (+19.04%)
Cavs in 4: 0.0%

Odds Boston forces a Game 6: 17% (-19.04%)
Odds Boston forces a Game 7: 2.04% (-6.98%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.19 (-0.26)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 0.35% likely (-2.34%)
Cavs win series: 99.65% likely (+2.34%)

 

[QuadrupleDouble]

Vegas odds are looking terrible for the cavs. Was thinking that it'd be a little closer.

All the ESPN projections give us no shot either.

I wonder how long the Warriors can keep that team together?