2017 NBA Playoff Odds & Betting Thread

[David.]

Vegas odds are looking terrible for the cavs. Was thinking that it'd be a little closer.

All the ESPN projections give us no shot either.

I wonder how long the Warriors can keep that team together?

Tin foil hat time.

They're building a narrative to defeat

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Vegas odds are looking terrible for the cavs. Was thinking that it'd be a little closer.

All the ESPN projections give us no shot either.

I wonder how long the Warriors can keep that team together?

After they lose the finals for the second straight year I could see some of the role players leaving for more money elsewhere

 

[FiveThous]

Did @shoes22 pick Cavs in 6 because his model likes them? Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

[HurricaneKid]

Vegas odds are looking terrible for the cavs. Was thinking that it'd be a little closer.

All the ESPN projections give us no shot either.

I wonder how long the Warriors can keep that team together?

The odds have come down substantially since the Cavs so artfully disposed of the Celtics and Raps. Odds were ~3:1 and are now down to ~2.2:1.

ESPN projections are based on RS point differential and are all but worthless.

It should be noted that LeBron has been the underdog in 6 of his 8 Finals.

 

[BooyaCS]

The odds have come down substantially since the Cavs so artfully disposed of the Celtics and Raps. Odds were ~3:1 and are now down to ~2.2:1.

ESPN projections are based on RS point differential and are all but worthless.

It should be noted that LeBron has been the underdog in 6 of his 8 Finals.

He was the Vegas longshot in 2007 vs San Andonio, 2012 vs OKC, 2014 vs SA 2015 2016 vs GS

In those games he is 2 - 3 with the 2 wins being against OKC and GS (2016) As the Favorite he is 1-1 Beating SA and Losing to Dallas

 

[Zeus69]

Where is @shoes22's prediction??? There's no new data to compile. The wait is killin me!!

 

[bigfoot5415]

After they lose the finals for the second straight year I could see some of the role players leaving for more money elsewhere

The amount of money out there for Shaun & Iggy would be stupid to turn down. I mean hell Loul Deng just got 17 mil last season. Then again same could be said about DWill lol.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

The amount of money out there for Shaun & Iggy would be stupid to turn down. I mean hell Loul Deng just got 17 mil last season. Then again same could be said about DWill lol.

I take that trade off any day

We lose DWill and they lose Iggy. Then Draymond is the only guy they can throw at LeBron. GG

Iggy is of the utmost importance to that team. He's not as far behind Klay as made out to be (In terms of important to the team)

 

[bigfoot5415]

I take that trade off any day

We lose DWill and they lose Iggy. Then Draymond is the only guy they can throw at LeBron. GG

Iggy is of the utmost importance to that team. He's not as far behind Klay as made out to be (In terms of important to the team)

Odds are GSW would lose both unless they significantly overpaid one bc of bird rights. All I know is, you have 2 guys about to get maxed out.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Odds are GSW would lose both unless they significantly overpaid one bc of bird rights. All I know is, you have 2 guys about to get maxed out.

Listen here Bigfoot

I'll put it this way

They lose igodoula and I'd be more afraid of the timber pups

 

[bigfoot5415]

Listen here Bigfoot

I'll put it this way

They lose igodoula and I'd be more afraid of the timber pups

Please tell me you pointed at the screen after you typed that.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Please tell me you pointed at the screen after you typed that.

There would be no other way to make a post like that

 

[bigfoot5415]

There would be no other way to make a post like that

If it wasn't for Covfefe, you would have won the internet for the last 24 hrs.

 

[shoes22]

Alright let's roll! The delay was because I upgraded my algorithm a little bit. I fine tuned it so it's a little more aggressive in decision making from the outset of a series, and it should be a little less predictable in its projections now. I like when it surprises me, and this series is no exception because in my model the Warriors are actually favored to win more games, and have the highest individual game probability to win (Game 2 at 68%), and yet my model is still picking the Cavs...albeit ever so slightly. Here's the breakdown:

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Warriors in 4: 4.41%
Warriors in 5: 14.97%
Warriors in 6: 12.19%
Warriors in 7: 17.8%
Cavs in 7: 15.16%
Cavs in 6: 20.06%
Cavs in 5: 9.20%
Cavs in 4: 6.21%

Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 58%/Cavs Win 42%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 89.38%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 65.21%
Odds series goes 7 games: 32.96%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.88

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 49.37% likely
Cavs win series: 50.63% likely

 

[RuanuLaw]

Alright let's roll! The delay was because I upgraded my algorithm a little bit. I fine tuned it so it's a little more aggressive in decision making from the outset of a series, and it should be a little less predictable in its projections now. I like when it surprises me, and this series is no exception because in my model the Warriors are actually favored to win more games, and have the highest individual game probability to win (Game 2 at 68%), and yet my model is still picking the Cavs...albeit ever so slightly. Here's the breakdown:

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Warriors in 4: 4.41%
Warriors in 5: 14.97%
Warriors in 6: 12.19%
Warriors in 7: 17.8%
Cavs in 7: 15.16%
Cavs in 6: 20.06%
Cavs in 5: 9.20%
Cavs in 4: 6.21%

Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 58%/Cavs Win 42%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 89.38%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 65.21%
Odds series goes 7 games: 32.96%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.88

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 49.37% likely
Cavs win series: 50.63% likely

Can you give us some more info as to why your model is favoring the Cavs? How much influence does the Regular season carry and also the Playoffs?

I know this is more of a stretch, but are the opponents faced in the playoffs factored in? How about their injuries?