2017 NBA Playoff Odds & Betting Thread

[natedagg]

Alright let's roll! The delay was because I upgraded my algorithm a little bit. I fine tuned it so it is still picking the Cavs...albeit ever so slightly. Here's the breakdown:

 

[shoes22]

Can you give us some more info as to why your model is favoring the Cavs? How much influence does the Regular season carry and also the Playoffs? I know this is more of a stretch, but are the opponents faced in the playoffs factored in? How about their injuries?

Sure! I'm not going to divulge the exact metrics I use, because I don't want my exact formula to be reverse-engineered or reproducible by anyone. But I'm more than happy to give some insight about what goes into the odds. My game predictor model was created after researching multiple existing methodologies that attempt to do the same thing, and I took what I thought worked and didn't work in those systems to develop my own.

To answer your questions, each team has a cumulative overall rating that updates after each game that encompasses a team's relative strength, but that rating is only used as a base. In the playoffs, my model focuses more 5-man lineup specific ratings and expected number of minutes played for each lineup, and compares those numbers to the opposing team's 5-man lineup specific ratings. So each matchup is unique. Using a method like this also accounts for opponent faced, injured players, and players that are playing but struggling or not at 100%.

The projected 5-man lineups information is the single biggest thing that sets my model apart from any other ones, and it's the primary reason my model has more accurate ratings for the Cavs than just about every other system.

With that said, here's how Game 2 looks!

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Warriors in 4: 8.57% (+4.16%)
Warriors in 5: 23.45% (+8.48%)
Warriors in 6: 14.62% (+2.43%)
Warriors in 7: 18.52% (+0.72%)
Cavs in 7: 15.77% (+0.61%)
Cavs in 6: 14.76% (-5.3%)
Cavs in 5: 4.31% (-4.89%)
Cavs in 4: 0.0% (-6.21%)

Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 70%/Cavs Win 30%

Odds Cleveland forces a Game 5: 91.43% (+2.05%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 63.67% (-1.54%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 34.29% (+1.33%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.89 (+0.01)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 65.16% likely (+15.79%)
Cavs win series: 34.84% likely (-15.79%)

I encourage everyone not to panic or worry yet. The only reason it may seem like the odds have shifted significantly is because Game 1 was projected at relatively close 58/42 odds, due to the uncertain nature of Game 1 after both teams had a long layoff. It's not because the Cavs got blown out in Game 1.

In fact, from the outset for Game 2, Golden State was projected to win at 66/34. So after one gmae, GS's likelihood of winning Game 2 only improved by 4%. It'll be really interesting to see what happens tonight and how this series progresses.

 

[wuck]

i

Sure! I'm not going to divulge the exact metrics I use, because I don't want my exact formula to be reverse-engineered or reproducible by anyone. But I'm more than happy to give some insight about what goes into the odds. My game predictor model was created after researching multiple existing methodologies that attempt to do the same thing, and I took what I thought worked and didn't work in those systems to develop my own.

To answer your questions, each team has a cumulative overall rating that updates after each game that encompasses a team's relative strength, but that rating is only used as a base. In the playoffs, my model focuses more 5-man lineup specific ratings and expected number of minutes played for each lineup, and compares those numbers to the opposing team's 5-man lineup specific ratings. So each matchup is unique. Using a method like this also accounts for opponent faced, injured players, and players that are playing but struggling or not at 100%.

The projected 5-man lineups information is the single biggest thing that sets my model apart from any other ones, and it's the primary reason my model has more accurate ratings for the Cavs than just about every other system.

With that said, here's how Game 2 looks!

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Warriors in 4: 8.57% (+4.16%)
Warriors in 5: 23.45% (+8.48%)
Warriors in 6: 14.62% (+2.43%)
Warriors in 7: 18.52% (+0.72%)
Cavs in 7: 15.77% (+0.61%)
Cavs in 6: 14.76% (-5.3%)
Cavs in 5: 4.31% (-4.89%)
Cavs in 4: 0.0% (-6.21%)

Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 70%/Cavs Win 30%

Odds Cleveland forces a Game 5: 91.43% (+2.05%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 63.67% (-1.54%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 34.29% (+1.33%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.89 (+0.01)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 65.16% likely (+15.79%)
Cavs win series: 34.84% likely (-15.79%)

I encourage everyone not to panic or worry yet. The only reason it may seem like the odds have shifted significantly is because Game 1 was projected at relatively close 58/42 odds, due to the uncertain nature of Game 1 after both teams had a long layoff. It's not because the Cavs got blown out in Game 1.

In fact, from the outset for Game 2, Golden State was projected to win at 66/34. So after one gmae, GS's likelihood of winning Game 2 only improved by 4%. It'll be really interesting to see what happens tonight and how this series progresses.

Your model has been quite effective during the post-season, so I would like you to do some tweaking before game 3...

 

[shoes22]

Your model has been quite effective during the post-season, so I would like you to do some tweaking before game 3...

I am weighting home court advantage a little more heavily than usual in the performance of role players, so the Cavs have a puncher's chance here...it would be pretty ugly otherwise

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Warriors in 4: 16.8% (+8.23%)
Warriors in 5: 32.91% (+9.46%)
Warriors in 6: 16.44% (+1.82%)
Warriors in 7: 15.34% (-3.18%)
Cavs in 7: 12.05% (-3.72%)
Cavs in 6: 6.46% (-8.3%)
Cavs in 5: 0.0% (-4.31%)
Cavs in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 40%/Cavs Win 60%

Odds Cleveland forces a Game 5: 83.2% (-8.23%)
Odds Cleveland forces a Game 6: 50.29% (-13.38%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 27.39% (-6.9%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.61 (-0.28)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 81.49% likely (+16.33%)
Cavs win series: 18.51% likely (-16.33%)

 

[shoes22]

Sorry guys, let's just get this over with...

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Warriors in 4: 46% (+29.2%)
Warriors in 5: 38.88% (+5.97%)
Warriors in 6: 6.96% (-9.48%)
Warriors in 7: 4.73% (-10.61%)
Cavs in 7: 3.43% (-8.62%)
Cavs in 6: 0.0% (-6.46%)
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%

Odds Cleveland forces a Game 5: 54% (-29.2%)
Odds Cleveland forces a Game 6: 15.12% (-35.17%)
Odds Cleveland forces a Game 7: 8.16% (-19.23%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.77 (-0.84)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 96.57% likely (+15.08%)
Cavs win series: 3.43% likely (-15.08%)

 

[pthompson09]

I know the circumstances are quite different than last year, but if they somehow find a way to win Game 4, the Cavs will be looking at a Game 5 in Oakland down 3-1 with likely very similar odds at that same point as last year (4.08% initially and 5.68% after Draymond got suspended).

Crazy to think about after all that has transpired so far.

 

[shoes22]

I know the circumstances are quite different than last year, but if they somehow find a way to win Game 4, the Cavs will be looking at a Game 5 in Oakland down 3-1 with likely very similar odds at that same point as last year (4.08% initially and 5.68% after Draymond got suspended).

Crazy to think about after all that has transpired so far.

You are very right. We have such a tough, tough road ahead of us to even win Game 5, but with that said our odds are slightly better with a 3-1 deficit this year than they were last year.

In this situation, we are expected to win this series roughly 1 out of 12 times, with the biggest challenge being winning Game 5 in Oakland. Keep on believing guys!

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Warriors in 4: 0.0% (-46%)
Warriors in 5: 68% (+29.12%)
Warriors in 6: 13.44% (+6.48%)
Warriors in 7: 10.39% (+5.66%)
Cavs in 7: 8.17% (+4.74%)
Cavs in 6: 0.0%
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%

Odds Cleveland forces a Game 6: 32% (+16.88%)
Odds Cleveland forces a Game 7: 18.56% (+10.4%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.51 (+0.74)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 91.83% likely (-4.74%)
Cavs win series: 8.17% likely (+4.74%)

 

[David.]

Sorry guys, let's just get this over with...

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
Warriors in 4: 46% (+29.2%)
Warriors in 5: 38.88% (+5.97%)
Warriors in 6: 6.96% (-9.48%)
Warriors in 7: 4.73% (-10.61%)
Cavs in 7: 3.43% (-8.62%)
Cavs in 6: 0.0% (-6.46%)
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%

Odds Cleveland forces a Game 5: 54% (-29.2%)
Odds Cleveland forces a Game 6: 15.12% (-35.17%)
Odds Cleveland forces a Game 7: 8.16% (-19.23%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.77 (-0.84)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 96.57% likely (+15.08%)
Cavs win series: 3.43% likely (-15.08%)

I like these odds