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2018 Draft Prospects Thread

Discussion in 'Browns Talk' started by AZ_, May 1, 2017.

  1. Triplethreat

    Triplethreat NBA Starter

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    False.

    We all know they're there. I'm not going to take the time out of my day to go look them up. There are problems with all prospects.

    Obviously Barkley will get more attention because he's more in the spotlight than any of the other prospects.
     
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  2. The Wizard of Moz

    The Wizard of Moz Lindorable

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    So then why did you offer to do it?
     
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  3. NorthCoastBias

    NorthCoastBias Champs

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    Yeah, I'm not going to invest an ounce into anything Sam Monson says when he, without irony, tweeted the following things LAST SEASON:


    View: https://twitter.com/PFF_Sam/status/901612055848988672



    View: https://twitter.com/PFF_Sam/status/919628298052931584



    View: https://twitter.com/PFF_Sam/status/923180544317325313
     
  4. RG

    RG Champion

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    Anytime you can treat PFF as mock draft gospel, you have to do it.
     
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  5. AZ_

    AZ_ Hall-of-Famer

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    A few things here:

    1. Sam Monson is entitled to his opinion, but inevitably we're going to have to figure out a way for the metrics to catch up to the differences in schemes at the college level.

    2. People who have the time to come on message boards and argue absolutely have the time to track down evidence to make their point. When they can't, it says quite a bit about just how weak their argument is.
     
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  6. Triplethreat

    Triplethreat NBA Starter

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    But everybody knows that Mayfield’s numbers are a product of a quirky college offense that just relies on screens and manufactured yardage from his receivers, right?

    College spread offenses are the bane of NFL evaluators, and there is no doubt that Oklahoma’s offense does manufacture some cheap and easy yardage for Mayfield, but that doesn’t come close to telling the whole story.

    The PFF Analytics team has been doing some work on quantifying what ‘NFL throws’ are, and looking at how college prospects relate to those throws.

    In essence, they have isolated the throws that have the highest expected points added (EPA) and are of the highest variance in terms of quarterback performance on them – i.e. good quarterbacks are good at making those throws, while bad quarterbacks are not.



    This past season, Mayfield had the eighth-most ‘NFL throw’ attempts in the nation and by far the best grade of any college quarterback on those pass attempts.
     
  7. AZ_

    AZ_ Hall-of-Famer

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    I don't doubt that at all.

    Doesn't necessarily make his receivers any less open, or the offense any less of a schematic advantage when measuring success.

    Baker Mayfield is an elite college QB. The metrics clearly tell us that, but using those collegiate metrics as a measure for NFL success isn't something which has been as historically significant as judging traits.
     
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  8. The Voice

    The Voice Best in the World

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    One year of pro bowls is the smallest sample size ever. You need to go back 10-15 years at least


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  9. Matches

    Matches Eloquently sarcastic

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    I agree, and I'm mostly done for the drafts from 1999-2008. I stopped at 2008 because we'd be getting into an era where guys are still not done making all-pro teams and that start skewing the data.

    I want to add the age at which players made their *first* all-pro team as well since I suspect that might be useful in illustrating truly how long different positions take to reach a peak...

    But the short version of the story the numbers tell, is what we already suspected: no other position has a younger "expiration date" than running back. The running backs who made at least 1 all-pro team in their career end up making their last all-pro team at age 27.1 (on average), are no longer starters by age 31, and out of football at age 32.4.

    The next shortest positional lifespan is really a toss up between linebacker and defensive tackle, whose all-pros make their last all-pro team at just about 28.5. They're no longer starters at 32.6 and out of the league by 34, on average. Cornerbacks are very close to these numbers as well.

    An interesting trend was that aside from running backs, every defensive position has a lower longevity among its elite players than the offensive positions, with QB being by far the age where all-pros last longest.
     
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  10. The Voice

    The Voice Best in the World

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    Are you including the alternates or just strictly the first selection?


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  11. Matches

    Matches Eloquently sarcastic

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    I'm going off the all pro teams. 1st and 2nd team selections. Pro Bowl, as we know, is kind of a joke.
     
  12. The Human Q-Tip

    The Human Q-Tip War is Hell

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    You're whole argument on this is really puzzling. Do you think everyone else just woke up one day and decided "let's trash Saquon Barkley"? Why does being in the spotlight have to be a negative?

    I didn't know shit about the kid, but heard the hype so I decided to watch a few of his game. Really wanted to see something special. I did see some great runs, but also noticed how many runs were for no gain or a loss. And then I noticed he just didn't seem able to see/find the crease unless it was a chasm, and so tried to bounce a lot of plays outside. It was impossible not to notice. So I made a post about what I saw.

    Turns out, others were doing the same. We were all seeing the same thing, on our own. Since then, people have backed that up with extensive stats confirming what we all noticed. Lots of videos showing that exact same tendency.

    And unless I've missed it, you've never actually responded to that criticism substantively. You repeatedly just dismiss it with comments like "there are problems with all prospects", etc..

    It's just odd. You're arguing without actually refuting anything anyone is saying.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 13, 2018 at 4:45 PM
  13. The Human Q-Tip

    The Human Q-Tip War is Hell

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    Well, it seems like a lot of people who have an "inside" contact on the player side tend to -- not surprisingly -- see that player in the best possible light. That shouldn't shock anyone given that most of the people close to a player are going to be friends/supporters, and so most likely to see the good rather than the bad, and to take everything said at face value.
     
  14. Triplethreat

    Triplethreat NBA Starter

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    The RCF groupthink is what's really puzzling.

    Barkley is universally viewed as the best RB prospect in the draft, and the best since Zeke Elliot. Some believe he's the best since AP.

    There are reasons. His pros vastly outweigh his cons.
     
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  15. The Wizard of Moz

    The Wizard of Moz Lindorable

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    Nah dude. I’m tired of this shit. Don’t go off about groupthink when you are literally contributing nothing to the discussion. I have been saying the same thing about Barkley since very early in the season at a time when it was very unpopular to say

    I’d be happy to gravedig out the concerns I documented a long time ago I had about him.

    But everyone of The “group thinkers” is actually going out and providing evidence and stating reasons why they feel the way they do. I did a fucking film slice of Josh Allen and why I didn’t want him. It took me over an hour to make that post. There are people on here that like Allen as a prospect that disputed my points with valid points of their own. And I respect that. They didn’t just spam the “groupthink defense” button.

    All you’re doing is saying “scouts everywhere are raving, there are negatives to every prospect” without providing literally any substance

    I’d LOVE if you showed some of the negatives of other prospects. Because it helps me learn about them and keeps the conversation going. Just coming in here playing the group think card and offering to do something and then saying you obviously don’t have time to do it after people say that’d be lovely if you did it is just weak. And it’s getting annoying
     
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