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2018 NBA Draft - June 21

Discussion in 'Trades, Free Agency, & the Draft' started by The Process God, Aug 22, 2017.

  1. catfish

    catfish Gold Star Member

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    Nets are on YES
     
  2. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    Wouldn't be surprised if a handful of projected late teens/early 20's guys decide to stay in school.
     
  3. Smooth

    Smooth Zizic 2020 Moderator

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    With the Trae Young debate raging on, figure I'd add a breakdown I did recently about where I see Young now and going forward..

    Tl;dr: I'm a fan...

    Trae Young and in honor of the three

    There are players that make you go 'wow'.

    After watching five games of Oklahoma freshman guard Trae Young, I can say he's one of them.

    For plays he makes and for plays he doesn't make, the 'wow' moments are there.

    Young to Oklahoma is like the sun to its planets. The gravitational pull that he has on his teammates is immense. The team, the offense and the game all revolve around what he does with the ball.

    Just as day and night alternate between patterns on Earth, so too does the Oklahoma offense when Young is on the floor versus on the bench.

    Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger has entrusted Young as the catalyst of the offense. The ball and their NCAA tournament life is in the freshman's hands.

    What's remarkable about his season thus far is the efficiency and success he's had with the burden placed on his shoulders.

    This entry, courtesy of NBAstuffer, defining usage rate can also be applied to Young's season.

    What defines a superstar, in Dean Oliver‘s statistical analysis, is that he can shoulder a larger proportion of a team’s possessions with only a relatively small drop in efficiency. Meanwhile, the opposite is also true: players perform more efficiently when they are asked to use fewer of their team’s possessions. As a result, the greater burden on the superstar means that supporting players maintain low usage rates, allowing them to operate closer to their peak efficiency.

    As of writing, Young is posting a NCAA leading 38.5% usage rate. In other words, he's using an estimated 38.5% of the team's plays while on the floor.

    To put that in perspective, the next closest qualified player this season is Campbell's Chris Clemons at 35.4%.

    Using Sports Reference's Player Season Finder, only three other guards have posted a higher USG% (with a qualifier of 400+ minutes played) the last ten years: Ronnie Boyce III (39.6%), Tiwian Kendley (39.5%) and Chris Clemons (38.7%).

    To use a high percentage of possessions is one thing. But to be efficient in using those possessions is another.

    Young currently leads the NCAA in points per game, assists per game, points produced per game and offensive plus/minus, is second in PER and third in offensive win shares.

    Of collegiate players the last ten years with at least 400 minutes played and a usage rate of 30%, Young ranks first in offensive plus/minus (13), third in PER (32), seventh in TS% (60.6%), 10th in eFG% (54.4%) and 13th in oRTG (119.5).

    This is all with six games still left in Oklahoma's regular season.

    Stats aren't the primary way to evaluate a prospect but they do hold value in matching up what is in the box score versus what is on the court. Does a prospect live up to his stats? If not, where is the disconnect?

    In honor of Trae Young and his famed three-point stroke, the following are three clips to best sum him up as a NBA prospect.

    One...

    I've said it on Twitter and I'll say it here: passing is his best NBA trait.

    Young is known for his pull-up threes, long distance bombs and terrific offensive outputs, but his playmaking is what should excite NBA teams most.

    It's one thing to find your own shot but it's another to be able to find a shot consistently for others.

    In Young's matchup versus fellow freshman phenom Collin Sexton, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla often noted Young's' 'early eyes'. He has a penchant for finding players early on the break or streaking big men racing to beat opposing bigs for a rim run.

    For me, this was the first 'wow' moment.


    View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/942981932073222144


    A missed shot but nonetheless, not many guards can make this pass.

    With the shot clock running down at the end of the half, Young is able to create off the dribble and get into the lane on a mismatch.

    Stopping the clip at 0:02, there are two options: force a floater over the oncoming big or force a pass to the corner shooter, with the risk of it being intercepted by the weakside defender.

    Instead, Young manages to hang in the air long enough to create a direct passing lane for a corner three. With one hand, he bullets a perfect pass for an end of the quarter three-point attempt.

    This example displays his ability to find players that are open and players that also don't seem open. This shows up time and time again in many of his games.

    Through his vision and playmaking instincts, he is able to create opportunities for his teammates.

    Two...

    This is what he is best known for. Not the two, but his three-point shot. Some more ridiculous than others but he puts an enormous amount of stress on the defense because of his range and quickness in getting up long-distance shots.

    Sometimes to his own disadvantage, Young can trust in his shot too much. But as a shooter, you need ultimate confidence in your shot to forget previous misses and manage inevitable slumps.

    What he is currently navigating is when and where to take the right shot. Not every shot is the right shot, even when there's an opportunity to hoist.

    This has been a learning progression throughout the season, especially with a team that relies so much on his explosive outputs.

    Young is attempting 10.5 three-pointers per game. It's a large part of his game because he doesn't need much space to get it off but he's also efficient (38.5%).

    In today's NBA, spacing is so important. Putting a player like Young on the floor creates stressors for the defense because he can shoot it well and does so with little effort.


    View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/959139584444715008


    Young has an on-balance, quick shooting motion that allows for little space and little time for him to get a clean look.

    What often separates a players' ability to elevate his offensive game from role player to primary offensive option is shooting off the dribble.

    Most of Young's looks come on the ball, off-the-dribble. His ability to get his own shot from deep and in the mid-range will allow him to continue to shoulder the scoring load once he transitions to the NBA.

    Three...

    Adaptability is the name of the game.

    Once the scouting report gets out, defenses will alter their coverage, how they play the offensive player and force the player into weak areas. If the offensive player is unable to come up to solutions to new problems, then their impact level will be minimized.

    Young is currently going through this at the collegiate level.

    In his first 11 games, he shot below 40% from the field just once.

    In his next 11 games, he shot below 40% from the field seven times.

    Teams have begun to crowd Young, take the ball out of his hands early and get physical. The scouting report was out on him, especially after West Virginia's Jevon Carter managed to limit his effectiveness.


    View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/952362331622793216


    In his first 11 games, Young had attempted 11+ three-pointers just once.

    In his next 11 games, he attempted 11+ three-pointers six times.

    The field goal percentage and three-point attempts are likely correlated, but they show a shift in Young's game based on how teams were guarding him. He can be reduced to settling for more perimeter shots, with not always the most efficient looks.

    But to Young's credit, while he began to launch more threes, he also began to be more aggressive in getting to the line.

    In his first 11 games, he attempted 10+ free throws just twice.

    In his next 11 games, he attempted 10+ free throws seven times.

    For a 84% free-throw shooter, this is the ultimate way to counteract some of the inefficient shooting from the field: get to the line and create easy opportunities.

    I wrote about it on Twitter but Young is a player built for the modern game. As of writing, only five players since 1992-1993 have had collegiate seasons of 9+ 3PTA per game and 8+ FTA per game. That's a pretty incredible balance and should make the NBA stat revolution smile.

    What Young is going through is the maturation process most young scorers have to go through. What is a good shot, how to pick your spots and how to balance team success with personal scoring success.

    Oklahoma relies so much on his production, the learning curve has been steep and there's not much time, or help, for Young to figure it out. Despite that, he's still having a historic season while performing at a maximum usage level.

    What should give NBA teams reason for optimism, is what the stats godfather Dean Oliver mentioned earlier: he can shoulder a larger proportion of a team’s possessions with only a relatively small drop in efficiency.

    Teams have seen what he can do while shouldering the load, which should mean with less placed on his plate, there should be a correlating rise in efficiency.

    In a best case scenario, Young will be able to go to a team with an established, veteran scorer where he can learn his way through carrying a team. That's not always the case for teams drafting high, where he is likely to go, which could hurt his initial production.

    But, Young is too smart, too talented and too skilled of a player to not figure it out.

    His stats and his play elicit 'wow' reactions and so should his NBA success.​
     
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  4. MirORich

    MirORich Hall-of-Famer

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    What I want to know and what is so key regarding this pick if LeBron stays and we keep the pick is:

    Which one of these guys not only thinks it would be cool to be great and get all the adulation, but actually want to push his limits from day one the achieve that in an accelerated manner.

    Who will follow LeBron around and take notes from his insane workouts and body maintenance programs. Who will put in the extra time with the staff at the practice complex from the minute they're drafted and signed.

    Who will take pointers from Kyle Korver on shot form.

    Of the bigs, who will lock themselves in the tape room watching hour after hour of film on the defensive greats and how they blocked out, established position, blocked shots in a way that leads to them controlling the ball.

    Because it's cool that we could get someone so talented that they look good in the regular season of year one. It's cool that we could get someone who might project to be a top10-20 player after LeBron hangs them up. But as long as LeBron is here, it's still about rings each and every year. So which are the mentally tough ones? Which are the dogs?

    Kawhi leaned into to buying in, improving, and being ready so hard that by his second year, he was a key contributor(30+mpg) on the Spurs team that should have beaten the second LeBron title Heat team in the 2013 Finals.

    No I'm not saying take a way lesser talent just because they're more mature on draft night. I'm not even saying take the guy who will be the best in year one. But of the guys we perceive to be the top six(Doncic, Porter, Ayton, Bamba, Jackson, Bagley), who is going to work the hardest and buy into to winning and professionalism the soonest? Because we can't wait until year 3 or 4 for that. These guys don't need to come in and be the second or third best player as rookies, but they need to be plus contributors for stretches of the game in intense playoff series in year one and a regular 20+ a night plus contributor by year 2, and by year three they really do need to be a top level Robin or Batman in waiting.

    Anyone has any info/intel into the mental make up of the top6(or even Young for those that like him)
     
  5. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    ESPN had a nice article on Doncic's personality a while ago: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20668236/there-never-nba-draft-prospect-slovenia-luka-doncic

    It does paint a little bit of a one-sided glowing picture of him. If I had to point out possible negatives, I'd say he's still a little immature in that he can sometimes let his emotions get the better of him. In general though, of course, you love to have a guy like him who always plays with passion and confidence.
     
  6. ajz20

    ajz20 Draft Guru

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    Yikes. Please please stay in the top 6!
     
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  7. Sir'Dom Pointer

    Sir'Dom Pointer All-Star

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Ding Ding Ding, it's a match
     
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    Last edited: Feb 14, 2018
  8. gourimoko

    gourimoko Fighting the good fight!

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    (cross-posting from the less relevant Nets thread)

    Alright... so for those of us not watching college hoops this year, can those here that are more knowledgeable explain who they have in their Top 5 (ordered 1 through 5) and why?

    @RchfldCavRaised
    @Nathan S
    @Sir'Dom Pointer
    @Anyone Else Please Feel Free...
     
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  9. Muffinalt

    Muffinalt Situational Stopper

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    Copied my post also, just to add to the discussion in its correct place.

    I wont even pretend im close to as knowledgable as Nathan, 3 Ball, blommen, Sir Dom and the others, but ill give it a crack.

    1. Doncic - no questions the overall top prospect, his ridiculous IQ and physical size just projects insanse. Just elite.

    2. Jackson - this might be a reach for now, but he is the youngest, has the best head on his shoulders and can be the first from the new wave of elite big man who anchor defenses (elite rim protection AND switchability) while being a legit 3 point floor spacer. If he develops more offense he will be a top 3 player in the league in 5 years.

    3. Ayton - I dont like him much because somebody that phisically imposing being so mediocore on D is just red flags all around. But you cant just ignore his offensive ability, and hope his size will translate into resepctable defense at the next level.

    4. Trae Young - lot of people question his size, atheltisicm and quickness, but I guaranteee for a fact those same people havent seen his decision making ability on offense. He is a true floor general with Lebron like passes and plays, no way that doesnt translate. And he just happens to have elite shooting and range. Those two things combined make him into a prospect worth compromising on D for imo.

    5. Porter - I have him here because I think Bamba, Bagley, Sexton and Mikal B have too much uncertainity in their game that make me question their impact on the next level. Porter seems like one of those all around great wings ala PG/Tatum who are always sought after commodities (and who knows who is the next Giannis or Kahwi).


    Thats mine, but once again, I really suggest to increase the presence in the Draft thread, @@Nathan S' tier system is much more complete for example. Without mentioning seperately the other regulars there offer too much insight as well.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 13, 2018
  10. gourimoko

    gourimoko Fighting the good fight!

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    Would be very curious if you could project these guys to two of the most similar NBA players?
     
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  11. MirORich

    MirORich Hall-of-Famer

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    Obviously not saying you should re-read the whole thread but there’s definitely some good breakdowns and perspectives all throughout the thread and I imagine as the full season of college ball winds down and the sample size of game tape for each guy increases, it will get even better.

    One thing I’m curious about and asked up thread is the mentals each of these prospects have. Because if LeBron stays AND we keep the player selected, he needs to want greatness and crave accelerated development. He can’t be carried for 3 seasons. He needs to be on that Kawhi track where by year two, he was a legit impact player on the playoffs. Not every 19-20 year old is ready for that type of development path so in addition to the talent equation, the organization really needs to indentify that hard to quantify measurement of who wants to be great and is immediately willing to make the sacrifices and put in the work on being a true professional and true competitor from day one.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 13, 2018
  12. Derek

    Derek 1 by land, 2 by sea, 3 Baerga

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    Thinking purely about who I'd want on the Cavs:

    1. Doncic - His talent level is through the roof, and he's currently dominating the Euroleague as an 18 year old. He's big enough to play the 4 for stretches, and he has the play making ability of a PG. The only questions about him are in regards to athleticism, because even against Euro competition, he relies a lot on making tough shots.

    2. Jackson - Count me aboard the bandwagon. He doesn't play bulk minutes too often due to a bit of a logjam of talent. Nick Ward and Miles Bridges each each up a good share of front-court minutes, and Izzo leans on his veteran quite a bit, while also utilizing small ball. On a per minute basis, he's the most impressive freshman statistically. To me, he's like a more physical Chris Bosh, that's how high I am on him. The biggest question mark for me is if his shot translates, it's a bit of a push shot, I think it'll be fine, but I'm trying to nit-pick.

    3. Bamba - His ceiling is a more mobile Gobert with a jumper. How could you not love that? That said, he's raw offensively, but shows the base skill-set that you'd want to work with. I don't think there's any question that his defense plays at the next level, and that makes his floor pretty high.

    4. Porter - This ranking is obviously based off his body of work in HS and AAU, where he was dominant, and a lot of people's #1 pick entering the year. He's a very good shooter, and a good ball handler for the 4 spot, although that aspect needs to improve if he's truly going to be a multi-faceted scorer in the NBA. He needs to get stronger, and a back injury is concerning. If he doesn't managed to play a few games this year, I'll probably have to bump him down. I'm ranking him here assuming he gets on the court for Mizzou, and impresses, much like Kyrie did at Duke.

    5. Ayton - He's had a stellar freshman year for Coach Miller at Arizona. He's scored, he's rebounded, and he's been blocking more shots lately. At times though, he's lacked energy, and consistency. In most drafts, he'd be one of my top guys, I guess it just speaks to the class we have here.

    Will add write-ups tomorrow. My next class is coming in, and I have a game tonight, so no time today.
     
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  13. czvo

    czvo Hall-of-Famer

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    I feel like I should be offended for not being in this list, but I have been slacking compared to the tank years lol. I would also just search every post @3 Ball...GOT IT has made in this thread. He's doing the Lord's work with this draft.

    As for my opinion, I'm basing it on LeBron being back. The top of this draft is so good, it's hard to go with a firm 1-5 as I think a lot of them are close.

    1. Mo Bamba - dude is built like Rudy Gobert, can put the ball on the floor a little bit, step out and shoot, protect the rim... the guy is freaking amazing. He needs to put on weight, but the more I watch him, the more I'm convinced that he's the unicorn of this draft. Just look up his TCU highlights. Actually, here you go:




    2. DeAndre Ayton - he doesn't quite have the defensive instincts of Bamba, but he's a little more polished offensively and he's jacked. Not sure you can really go wrong with Ayton or Bamba, to be honest. However, I give Bamba the nod because he's improving at an incredible rate. Reminds me a little of how quickly Embiid improved throughout the season.


    3. Jaren Jackson Jr. - think TT with longer arms, quicker feet, better shot blocking ability and a decent jumper. He's shown he can hit the three at an acceptable rate, though I'm not a huge fan of his form. He doesn't have the measurables of the other two, hence why he's here.


    4. Luka Doncic - to be perfectly honest, I haven't watched a ton of him. But what I've seen, he seems to have a really high BBIQ and an ability to play on and off the ball. Based on what I've seen from Cedi, he seems like a supercharged version of him but he can shoot, run the PnR and dribble.


    5. Michael Porter Jr. - if his back checks out, I think his ceiling is Kevin Durant. Not that he'll reach it, but that's how good I think he can be. He's 6-10, but he moves like he's 6-4. He's got a sweet shooting stroke and just enough off the dribble creativity. I really, REALLY hope he plays a few games for Mizzou just so we can all get a look at him.


    Just on the outside: Bagley, Carter, Sexton, Mikal Bridges


    (As you have probably noticed, no Trae Young. I won't go into a long diatribe about why I don't want him, I've done that in this thread and others. I will add this to my argument against him: if LeBron sticks around, this organization FINALLY has the chance to do something we've always wanted from them. We know LeBron is at his best when surrounded with athletes who can shoot/a big that can protect the rim. Well, THIS draft is the chance to do that. Bamba, Ayton, Doncic, Jackson and Porter all fit either the big wing that can shoot or big that can protect the rim and space the floor. WHY, with all those options, would we want the team to limit themselves again with a small point guard that can't defend and is better with the ball? Just doesn't make sense to me.)
     
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  14. Muffinalt

    Muffinalt Situational Stopper

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    Uhh thats actually super hard imo, coz all of them are so unique apart from Porter Jr. Ill try:

    Doncic - taller James Harden/scorer mentality Jason Kidd

    JJJ - havent seen anyone like him.. AD i guess for overall impact (without offense), Garnett maybe

    Ayton - Embiid, KAT

    Young - Steven Nash, midget Harden (with better passing though)

    Porter - PG, lower ceiling KD
     
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  15. gourimoko

    gourimoko Fighting the good fight!

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    Oh, I realize that; that's kind of what I find intriguing... I wonder if having a natural player analog speaks to the ease of player transition into the NBA (effectively, representing fit in modern NBA play style)


    Really???


    That's quite the comparison...

    Very intriguing!
     

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