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2018 NBA Draft - June 21

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As good as Ayton is, he is absolutely one of the worst/softest screeners I've ever seen. He doesn't like to put his body on guys EVER when he sets a pick on or off the ball.

Just something I noticed that would need fixed ASAP.
Haha oh man this is my biggest gripe with this guy watching his clips. Has there been a play so far where he made contact with his man and rolled or popped?

Also re: MPJ's lack of wiggle. That was a concern I brought up before myself. If what @Nathan S says about his competitiveness is true, and other things I've seen posters on this board say about his flawless off the court reviews, I'm betting everything on that every day of the week and twice in Sunday. If he's truly that competitive and that well regarded off the court he will utterly max out his ceiling and be a force to be reckoned with. All I know is when I look at draftees the number one thing that's predictive of their success is their fire and IQ, the second criteria I've found to be predictive is if they're strong for their size/position.

Edit: wait a minute. He played through that injury for years and is fully rehabbing it now after surgery?? I'm MPJ or bust now. This smacks of a market inefficiency. If he rehabs to correct all the compensation issues he must have had earlier I think there's a whole new level of lateral mobility he can unlock right there. Well then, it seems I've settled on the number one for my draft board.
 
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Haha oh man this is my biggest gripe with this guy watching his clips. Has there been a play so far where he made contact with his man and rolled or popped?

Also re: MPJ's lack of wiggle. That was a concern I brought up before myself. If what @Nathan S says about his competitiveness is true, and other things I've seen posters on this board say about his flawless off the court reviews, I'm betting everything on that every day of the week and twice in Sunday. If he's truly that competitive and that well regarded off the court he will utterly max out his ceiling and be a force to be reckoned with. All I know is when I look at draftees the number one thing that's predictive of their success is their fire and IQ, the second criteria I've found to be predictive is if they're strong for their size/position.

But a lot of Big man don't screen properly in the NCAA... even Mo Bamba is pretty soft.

The best and most active on and off the ball amongst the top big man prospects is Jaren Jackson, but he is limited by the NCAA reffing and their light whistle when it comes to him. You can see that he knows how to screen.
 
Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be a great player. I wish the Cavs could some how get him.

He the best PG defender in college and the way he gets to the rim is pretty special.. big strides, smooth and he almost slithers through defenders. Has good vision and a pretty good passer.

Similar player to Dejounte Murray, but he is taller and better at every facet of the game.
 
Added 6 and 7 to my list since 7 seems to be the basement for the Nets pick right now. You'll notice I don't have Bagley or Young on my list, they'd probably be 8 and 9 in that order.


1. Doncic - His talent level is through the roof, and he's currently dominating the Euroleague as an 18 year old. He's big enough to play the 4 for stretches, and he has the play making ability of a PG. The only questions about him are in regards to athleticism, because even against Euro competition, he relies a lot on making tough shots.

2. Jackson - Count me aboard the bandwagon. He doesn't play bulk minutes too often due to a bit of a logjam of talent. Nick Ward and Miles Bridges each each up a good share of front-court minutes, and Izzo leans on his veteran quite a bit, while also utilizing small ball. On a per minute basis, he's the most impressive freshman. To me, he's like a more physical Chris Bosh, that's how high I am on him. The biggest question mark for me is if his shot translates, it's a bit of a push shot, I think it'll be fine, but I'm trying to nit-pick.

3. Bamba - His ceiling is a more mobile Gobert with a jumper. How could you not love that? That said, he's raw offensively, but shows the base skill-set that you'd want to work with. I don't think there's any question that his defense plays at the next level, and that makes his floor pretty high. I've heard Thabeet mentioned by his detractors, but Thabeet could barely move whereas Bamba is very mobile.

4. Porter - This ranking is obviously based off his body of work in HS and AAU, where he was dominant, and a lot of people's #1 pick entering the year. He's a very good shooter, and a good ball handler for the 4 spot, although that aspect needs to improve if he's truly going to be a multi-faceted scorer in the NBA. He needs to get stronger, and a back injury is concerning. If he doesn't managed to play a few games this year, I'll probably have to bump him down. I'm ranking him here assuming he gets on the court for Mizzou, and impresses, much like Kyrie did at Duke.

5. Ayton - He's had a stellar freshman year for Coach Miller at Arizona. He's scored, he's rebounded, and he's been blocking more shots lately. At times though, he's lacked energy, and consistency. In most drafts, he'd be one of my top guys, I guess it just speaks to the class we have here.

6. Wendell Carter - He's impressed me a lot more than Bagley. The knock on him is lack of explosiveness, but he looks really mobile and fluid for his size. He finishes well with both hands around the basket, showing great touch. In a limited sample size, he has shown off a good set jump shot. Hasn't been a prolific shot blocker like JJJ or Bamba, but he's been pretty good.

7. Mikal Bridges - I doubt many people have him ahead of Bagley and Young, but I'm a really big Bridges fan. He has good physical tools, and puts them to use. He's been a terrific collegiate defender, and has turned into a really good shooter. He'll probably never get to this level, but he reminds me of Paul George.
 
Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be a great player. I wish the Cavs could some how get him.

He the best PG defender in college and the way he gets to the rim is pretty special.. big strides, smooth and he almost slithers through defenders. Has good vision and a pretty good passer.

Similar player to Dejounte Murray, but he is taller and better at every facet of the game.

Why doesn't he shoot more? His percentages, from 3 and from the line, are pretty solid. But last night was just his second game all season with multiple 3's.
 
Why doesn't he shoot more? His percentages, from 3 and from the line, are pretty solid. But last night was just his second game all season with multiple 3's.

I think he can shoot more. I think he isn't showing everything and this is an area that he is reserved about... his .81%FT percentage is a pretty good indicator that he can shoot on a higher volume.

I think Calipari just wants him to run the set plays for others... especially for Kevin Knox on the wings, coming off screens and cuts to the basket. They use him more as a penetrator as well, rather than a shooter.

He still has ways to go as a spot-up shooter and as an isolation player, but the tools, penetration skills and defense are all there.
 
I think he can shoot more. I think he isn't showing everything and this is an area that he is reserved about... his .81%FT percentage is a pretty good indicator that he can shoot on a higher volume.

I think Calipari just wants him to run the set plays for others... especially for Kevin Knox on the wings, coming off screens and cuts to the basket. They use him more as a penetrator as well, rather than a shooter.

He still has ways to go as a spot-up shooter and as an isolation player, but the tools, penetration skills and defense are all there.

My rating system just sees that he's only made a handful of 3's all year and penalizes him for that. Combination of low 3-point rate and low free throw rate typically a very bad sign for a prospect's scoring potential. If I were him I'd stay in school another year. He could get out of Knox's shadow (who'll presumably enter this draft), and dominate next year after adding some muscle and improving his jumpshot over the summer.
 
My rating system just sees that he's only made a handful of 3's all year and penalizes him for that. Combination of low 3-point rate and low free throw rate typically a very bad sign for a prospect's scoring potential. If I were him I'd stay in school another year. He could get out of Knox's shadow (who'll presumably enter this draft), and dominate next year after adding some muscle and improving his jumpshot over the summer.

He is a work in progress on offense, but the tools and ability are there. Where he shines and should score high on your system is on the defensive end... but I like his long term outlook on both ends.

He is still skinny and maybe he should stay if he wants to enter inside the top 10, as next year seems like the better option.
 
He is a work in progress on offense, but the tools and ability are there. Where he shines and should score high on your system is on the defensive end... but I like his long term outlook on both ends.

He is still skinny and maybe he should stay if he wants to enter inside the top 10, as next year seems like the better option.

He's slipped a little defensively in my projections...was a steal machine earlier this season, but last night for instance he ended up with 0 steals, 0 blocks in spite of playing huge minutes. Conditioning probably needs to improve for him to be an impact player on both ends.
 
He's slipped a little defensively in my projections...was a steal machine earlier this season, but last night for instance he ended up with 0 steals, 0 blocks in spite of playing huge minutes. Conditioning probably needs to improve for him to be an impact player on both ends.

Could you add Aaron Holiday and post his stats here? I like him as a good backup in the league.
 
Could you add Aaron Holiday and post his stats here? I like him as a good backup in the league.

+1.18 offense, -2.31 defense. Undersized, plus poor athleticism indicators (low offensive rebound rate, low steal rate) hurts his projection a lot. Also pretty underwhelming ast/TO ratio for an upperclassman point guard.
 
Shai is not as good of a shooter as his %s indicate. The majority of his 3 point attempts come on wide open 3's off ball.

Unless he dramatically changes his shot mechanics, he's never going to be a guy who can shoot off the dribble. His off-hand is over top of the ball and gets over involved. It's difficult to get your hand into positioning like that off of the dribble - and I would imagine that's why he doesn't take them very often.

He should mostly play off the ball in the NBA for sure. I still think he can shoot 35%+ in the NBA easily if he's used correctly. But it would be on similar types of attempts he's getting at UK.
 
I'm a Duke fan, the guys on this team have a ridiculous amount of talent and it pales in comparison of what we are getting next year in Reddish, Williamson and Barrett. Bagley has so much talent and I think he can be great, the effort isn't there a lot though, he's played in so many pickup games with NBA pros that maybe he just does not care about college basketball. I love Wendell though, great midrange shot, can block a shot, guy is really solid.
 
Zhaire Smith looks fantastic in the early going tonight. Drained a rhythm 3 to start the game and has already made countless key plays with his athleticism. He could still crash the top-10 party in this draft the way he's playing.

EDIT: 2/2 from 3. He's now 7/8 from 3 over his last 6 games after going 5/18 over his first 22 games. Wasn't expected to be a shooter at all.
 
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