2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[Nathan S]

I actually just did Keenan Evans like a week ago lol. Carter I've done as well, but want to go back and add some things. These are the guys I've done

Luka Doncic
Mikal Bridges
Jaren Jackson Jr
Deandre Ayton
Michael Porter Jr
Miles Bridges
Trae Young
Wendell Carter
Mo Bamba
Marvin Bagley III
Collin Sexton
Elie Okobo
Robert Williams
Shake Milton
Landry Shamet
Anfernee Simons
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jacob Evans III
Zhaire Smith
Chandler Hutchison
Melvin Frazier
Keita Bates-Diop
Khyri Thomas
DeAnthony Melton
Kevin Knox
Jevon Carter
Dzanan Musa
Vincent Edwards
Troy Brown Jr
Lonnie Walker IV
Chimezie Metu
Aaron Holiday
Devonte' Graham
Bruce Brown Jr
Goga Bitadze
Rawle Alkins
Mitchell Robinson
Trevon Duval
Grayson Allen
Keenan Evans
Hamidou Diallo
Brandon McCoy

Ran my draft rater on all NCAA players in Jackson Hoy's top 100. My draft rater is designed to read in data from multiple years for non-freshmen, so these rating are very much preliminary for them (and in general, they tend to drop when I add the rest of their data). But here are some standout upperclassmen, and a few freshmen, who may declare or seem likely to declare:

-Josh Okogie, +3.27 Off, +0.43 Def, +3.71 overall

-Jarred Vanderbilt, -0.53 Off, +3.53 Def, +3.00 overall in a very short injury-riddled freshman season.

-Shamorie Ponds, +3.32 Off, -1.14 Def, +2.18 overall

-De'Andre Hunter, +1.15 Off, +0.37 Def, 1.52 overall

-Gary Clark, -0.48 Off, +1.99 Def, +1.50 overall (this is a complete rating for him including all 4 years)

-Tony Carr, +2.47 Off, -1.32 Def, +1.15 overall

-Kenrich Williams, +0.10 Off, 1.01, +1.11 overall (this is a complete rating for him including all 3 years)

 

[Nathan S]

Campazzo out for the playoffs, so those of us hoping to see Doncic really put to the test will get our wish. He'll likely play 30+ minutes per game as Real's primary scorer and primary facilitator, going against a Panathinaikos team with several NBA-caliber defensive players. The first two games of the 5-game series will be on the road in the giant Olympic Sports Center where Doncic is a career 0-2, playing poorly in both losses. He'll likely spend most of his time matched up against his main competitor for MVP, Nick Calathes, and to make things even more spicy one of the refs for game 1 was behind Doncic's controversial ejection earlier this season.

 

[Nathan S]

That was an experience to watch...how does a road team ever win in that stadium? Euro fans are insane @Sir'Dom Pointer

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

That was an experience to watch...how does a road team ever win in that stadium? Euro fans are insane @Sir'Dom Pointer

Didn't watch the game :/ I tried to find a stream, but to no avail.

Yeah, Euro fans are insane...die hard. It's really not entertainment to them like the NBA to American fans, it's their fucking life.

How did Doncic look? Pao has the best defense in the Euroleague and Doncic struggles against athletic wings and good defensive schemes.

 

[Nathan S]

Didn't watch the game :/ I tried to find a stream, but to no avail.

Yeah, Euro fans are insane...die hard. It's really not entertainment to them like the NBA to American fans, it's their fucking life.

How did Doncic look? Pao has the best defense in the Euroleague

Well, he tried to let his teammates get involved and not try to do everything himself, which sounded like a good idea at first...but his teammates went 1/16 from 3 (with the one make coming late in garbage time) and missed a host of other makeable shots inside the arc. The reason why, of course, was the crazy physicality of Panathinaikos and their terrifying home court atmosphere.

The refs did a decent enough job, to be fair...Real made it to the line 28 times compared to 13 for Panathinaikos. But that high intensity level more than served its purpose. At a basic level Doncic handled it almost as well as you could hope, making a couple threes at opportune times and turning it over just twice, once on a questionable palming violation and again on what was clearly a foul by Calathes. He arguably kept his head better than most of his teammates, who just looked like they were scared shitless from the opening tip.

But Real needed him to be a leader, calm the team down, and get them into their tried-and-true offense, and he couldn't do that. They needed him to attack some double teams and provide a spark instead of just letting Panathinaikos force the ball out of his hands again and again, and he couldn't do that. So in that sense, it was a very disappointing game for a guy who's an MVP candidate.

On defense, well, the whole team was a trainwreck. It was lob city in there; I completely lost track of how many wild dunks Panathinaikos got in transition and in the half court thanks to slow rotations by Real's bigs. You could say Doncic contained Calathes pretty well, which is technically true, but Calathes was in no mood to search for his own shot when his teammates were just destroying Real off the ball. Lots of communication breakdowns (and I don't have to tell you why) with Doncic just as guilty as every other player on his team. And of course Panathinaikos put the cherry on top by shooting 12/22 from 3.

All in all, game hardly could've gone worse for Real, but the blame should mainly be the veterans and Lasso for not coming into the game properly prepared. Realistically there's probably nothing Doncic could've done that would've gotten the win today.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Well, he tried to let his teammates get involved and not try to do everything himself, which sounded like a good idea at first...but his teammates went 1/16 from 3 (with the one make coming late in garbage time) and missed a host of other makeable shots inside the arc. The reason why, of course, was the crazy physicality of Panathinaikos and their terrifying home court atmosphere.

The refs did a decent enough job, to be fair...Real made it to the line 28 times compared to 13 for Panathinaikos. But that high intensity level more than served its purpose. At a basic level Doncic handled it almost as well as you could hope, making a couple threes at opportune times and turning it over just twice, once on a questionable palming violation and again on what was clearly a foul by Calathes. He arguably kept his head better than most of his teammates, who just looked like they were scared shitless from the opening tip.

But Real needed him to be a leader, calm the team down, and get them into their tried-and-true offense, and he couldn't do that. They needed him to attack some double teams and provide a spark instead of just letting Panathinaikos force the ball out of his hands again and again, and he couldn't do that. So in that sense, it was a very disappointing game for a guy who's an MVP candidate.

On defense, well, the whole team was a trainwreck. It was lob city in there; I completely lost track of how many wild dunks Panathinaikos got in transition and in the half court thanks to slow rotations by Real's bigs. You could say Doncic contained Calathes pretty well, which is technically true, but Calathes was in no mood to search for his own shot when his teammates were just destroying Real off the ball. Lots of communication breakdowns (and I don't have to tell you why) with Doncic just as guilty as every other player on his team. And of course Panathinaikos put the cherry on top by shooting 12/22 from 3.

All in all, game hardly could've gone worse for Real, but the blame should mainly be the veterans and Lasso for not coming into the game properly prepared. Realistically there's probably nothing Doncic could've done that would've gotten the win today.

I found a stream that worked for like 1/2 of the 3Q lmao but that's it. They had him playing pretty exclusively off ball on defense from that portion of the game I saw. And he wasn't really even bringing the ball up on offense in those minutes either. The step back threes he had that I saw on twitter were filth though.

Where do you usually watch Euroleague? Do you have a go-to stream? Also what even is the playoff system there? How many games does Doncic have left

 

[Nathan S]

I found a stream that worked for like 1/2 of the 3Q lmao but that's it. They had him playing pretty exclusively off ball on defense from that portion of the game I saw. And he wasn't really even bringing the ball up on offense in those minutes either. The step back threes he had that I saw on twitter were filth though.

Where do you usually watch Euroleague? Do you have a go-to stream? Also what even is the playoff system there? How many games does Doncic have left

I just paid the $17 monthly fee on the official website.

And I'm not sure why Lasso didn't have Doncic play a more active role. At a basic level, yeah, Doncic was a turnover machine in their regular season game at Panathinaikos. But with no Campazzo, no Llull, they basically had no other options other than Carroll going 1-on-1 trying to beat guys. As I said before, probably nothing would've made a difference, but I think the smart adjustment would've just been to tell Doncic to take the ball and be aggressive. He didn't even get to the free throw line until late in the 3rd, at which point it was obviously too late. Too much trying to get all different guys involved when clearly none of them were up to the task.

Game 2 is on Thursday, and then games 3-4 are back in Madrid, then game 5 back in Athens if necessary. If Real wins this series, they advance to the final four which is single-game knockout. Of course, he still has several ACB league games left too.

Panathinaikos has a +10 scoring margin at home and a -6 scoring margin on the road, while Real has a +10 scoring margin at home and a +1 scoring margin on the road. So, basically, both teams have huge advantages at home, and Panathinaikos has a huge advantage because they have home court for the series. Real had 3 tries to steal a win on the road, and now they're down to 2 tries. Easy to see the series going 5 games; but will obviously be very tough for Real to come out on top.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

With tax season now over I will probably have more time to finish these scouting reports. Josh Okogie is starting to get more attention. Don't think he's been mentioned at all in here. ESPN has him in the 50's right now I believe. 2-guard with a 7'0" wingspan. Can hit shots off the catch and has the tools to defend one through three. Also pretty young for a Sophomore.

He shoots a set shot so don't expect him to ever be more than just your standard floor spacer who you can throw onto opposing ball handlers.

My favorite part of this draft is the amount of two-way players from the latter half of the 1st round through the second.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

With tax season now over I will probably have more time to finish these scouting reports. Josh Okogie is starting to get more attention. Don't think he's been mentioned at all in here. ESPN has him in the 50's right now I believe. 2-guard with a 7'0" wingspan. Can hit shots off the catch and has the tools to defend one through three. Also pretty young for a Sophomore.

He shoots a set shot so don't expect him to ever be more than just your standard floor spacer who you can throw onto opposing ball handlers.

My favorite part of this draft is the amount of two-way players from the latter half of the 1st round through the second.

It would have been my favourite part of the draft too if we had our own pick, but we don't, so why is it your favourite part? It's depressing knowing that there are very quality players in the late 1st to the mid 2nd round.

 

[Nathan S]

With tax season now over I will probably have more time to finish these scouting reports. Josh Okogie is starting to get more attention. Don't think he's been mentioned at all in here. ESPN has him in the 50's right now I believe. 2-guard with a 7'0" wingspan. Can hit shots off the catch and has the tools to defend one through three. Also pretty young for a Sophomore.

He shoots a set shot so don't expect him to ever be more than just your standard floor spacer who you can throw onto opposing ball handlers.

My favorite part of this draft is the amount of two-way players from the latter half of the 1st round through the second.

I replied to you with this earlier...did you not get a notification?

Ran my draft rater on all NCAA players in Jackson Hoy's top 100. My draft rater is designed to read in data from multiple years for non-freshmen, so these rating are very much preliminary for them (and in general, they tend to drop when I add the rest of their data). But here are some standout upperclassmen, and a few freshmen, who may declare or seem likely to declare:

-Josh Okogie, +3.27 Off, +0.43 Def, +3.71 overall

-Jarred Vanderbilt, -0.53 Off, +3.53 Def, +3.00 overall in a very short injury-riddled freshman season.

-Shamorie Ponds, +3.32 Off, -1.14 Def, +2.18 overall

-De'Andre Hunter, +1.15 Off, +0.37 Def, 1.52 overall

-Gary Clark, -0.48 Off, +1.99 Def, +1.50 overall (this is a complete rating for him including all 4 years)

-Tony Carr, +2.47 Off, -1.32 Def, +1.15 overall

-Kenrich Williams, +0.10 Off, 1.01, +1.11 overall (this is a complete rating for him including all 3 years)

Okogie's probably the top statistical prospect in the draft I had overlooked in my initial rankings. Poor efficiency, but the ability to make 3's and draw fouls is a great combination, and his steal/offensive rebound rates are also positive indicators. Seems to have poor plus/minus numbers, which make me a little cooler on him than I would otherwise be. I do think he might be much, much higher on most big boards if he had played on a team that could space the floor for him.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

It would have been my favourite part of the draft too if we had our own pick, but we don't, so why is it your favourite part? It's depressing knowing that there are very quality players in the late 1st to the mid 2nd round.

I meant from just an overall point of view, not Cavs. Though there's at least a chance that one of these guys falls out of the draft. Teams like to take Euro stashes in the late second. Not sure if you can sign a guy to a two-way contract out of a 2nd round selection (or whether an agent would even be willing to), but could see that also affecting things.

Wouldn't surprise me if a player like Okogie, Vince Edwards, or Jarrey Foster is available after the draft.

I replied to you with this earlier...did you not get a notification?



Okogie's probably the top statistical prospect in the draft I had overlooked in my initial rankings. Poor efficiency, but the ability to make 3's and draw fouls is a great combination, and his steal/offensive rebound rates are also positive indicators. Seems to have poor plus/minus numbers, which make me a little cooler on him than I would otherwise be. I do think he might be much, much higher on most big boards if he had played on a team that could space the floor for him.

Haha my bad I must've missed his name in there. How much does your model value high usage? I ask because Okogie was in a strange situation at Georgia Tech where he was literally the only guy who could create anything whatsoever. I strongly doubt he has the same role in the NBA right out of the gate, but could get there.

It would take almost a full season's worth of film to get a feel if his ability to draw fouls will translate, but it's a great sign... he'll need it. I like him alot. Wouldn't surprise me if he ends up going early second.

I'm going to look at Kenrich soon too.

 

[Nathan S]

I meant from just an overall point of view, not Cavs. Though there's at least a chance that one of these guys falls out of the draft. Teams like to take Euro stashes in the late second. Not sure if you can sign a guy to a two-way contract out of a 2nd round selection (or whether an agent would even be willing to), but could see that also affecting things.

Wouldn't surprise me if a player like Okogie, Vince Edwards, or Jarrey Foster is available after the draft.




Haha my bad I must've missed his name in there. How much does your model value high usage? I ask because Okogie was in a strange situation at Georgia Tech where he was literally the only guy who could create anything whatsoever. I strongly doubt he has the same role in the NBA right out of the gate, but could get there.

It would take almost a full season's worth of film to get a feel if his ability to draw fouls will translate, but it's a great sign... he'll need it. I like him alot. Wouldn't surprise me if he ends up going early second.

I'm going to look at Kenrich soon too.

Basically, volume >> efficiency for 3-pointers and free throws, and efficiency > volume for assists/TO. For Okogie, his free throw rate is the biggest point in his favor offensively, steal rate, 3-point rate, offensive rebound rate all small positives, and ast/TO a small negative.

2-point rate basically doesn't matter at all, which seems crazy at first, but I think it's because free throw rate and offensive rebound rate largely capture how potent a prospect is going to be scoring the ball inside the arc. Most prospects who are good scorers inside the arc draw a lot of fouls and get a lot of offensive boards too. The few that score a lot inside the arc but don't draw fouls may just be feasting on easy, uncontested looks that won't be there at the NBA level.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Basically, volume >> efficiency for 3-pointers and free throws, and efficiency > volume for assists/TO. For Okogie, his free throw rate is the biggest point in his favor offensively, steal rate, 3-point rate, offensive rebound rate all small positives, and ast/TO a small negative.

2-point rate basically doesn't matter at all, which seems crazy at first, but I think it's because free throw rate and offensive rebound rate largely capture how potent a prospect is going to be scoring the ball inside the arc. Most prospects who are good scorers inside the arc draw a lot of fouls and get a lot of offensive boards too. The few that score a lot inside the arc but don't draw fouls may just be feasting on easy, uncontested looks that won't be there at the NBA level.

So can you adjust the rating on specific attributes? Like for example can you go in on your own and adjust how strongly AST/TO rate affects the player's rating? Or is it all based off of the original sample of players and their success. Idk if I'm explaining it well, but can you change the weights on certain areas when you feel necessary?

I'm totally ignorant with these models, but I'm thinking it's entirely based off of strongest correlation to past success of other players? And that you can't really do what I'm saying above...

Or something similar to the AST/TOV example above, what about the super extreme guys? I can't get my head around how models always love Shamorie Ponds because of his 3P attempt rate, when the guy is shooting 25% from 3 lmao. I understand that high 3P attempts more often than not = better NBA shooting ability, but what about the extreme circumstances like Ponds? There can't be that many guys who have attempted 6 three's a game and shot under 30%. I would imagine there's different levels of uncertainty from one player to another, and Ponds would be an example of a highly uncertain rating?

Sorry for all of the questions but I'm curious to learn more about these lol.

 

[Nathan S]

So can you adjust the rating on specific attributes? Like for example can you go in on your own and adjust how strongly AST/TO rate affects the player's rating? Or is it all based off of the original sample of players and their success. Idk if I'm explaining it well, but can you change the weights on certain areas when you feel necessary?

I'm totally ignorant with these models, but I'm thinking it's entirely based off of strongest correlation to past success of other players? And that you can't really do what I'm saying above...

Or something similar to the AST/TOV example above, what about the super extreme guys? I can't get my head around how models always love Shamorie Ponds because of his 3P attempt rate, when the guy is shooting 25% from 3 lmao. I understand that high 3P attempts more often than not = better NBA shooting ability, but what about the extreme circumstances like Ponds? There can't be that many guys who have attempted 6 three's a game and shot under 30%. I would imagine there's different levels of uncertainty from one player to another, and Ponds would be an example of a highly uncertain rating?

Sorry for all of the questions but I'm curious to learn more about these lol.

It's all based on correlation with success for past players; I could tweak things myself to make things agree more with what I see as "common sense," but that's a slippery slope as I've mentioned before.

I think the reason why 3-point volume ends up being prioritized over accuracy is that virtually everyone given the green light to shoot 6 threes per game must have some kind of shooting talent. That's probably true for Ponds; he shot 86% from the line, and shot 37.5% from 3 last year, so there's a reasonable chance his 25% shooting from 3 this year was at least partly a fluke. Of course, you can imagine a player who shoots 20% from 3 on 10 attempts per game and has a very stupid coach who just lets him do that. My model basically isn't aware that such players could/do exist because it's only looked at guys that end up playing in the NBA.

I will note, at least my model values the volume of 3-pointers *made*, so it's judging him by his 1.7 3-pointers made per 40 minutes, which is only modestly above-average. He does also have the largest uncertainty of any player I've looked at this year, even larger than Trae Young (which isn't entirely bad if you're looking at him as a 2nd-round gamble, as it suggests he could indeed be the big steal of the draft).

 

[Nathan S]

Someone posted video of the 20-0 start, if anyone's curious: