2018 NBA Draft - June 21

[Los216]

Ayton has his fans, but it's certainly misleading to say the hype is "near universal." He's one of many highly polarizing players at the top of this draft.

I think what DA is saying is of all the players Ayton is being seen as more of a lock than anyone else.

 

[Adam]

I think what DA is saying is of all the players Ayton is being seen as more of a lock than anyone else.

I think he's saying that scouts really value offense in number one picks. Ayton would be an impact big from day 1 but I do think he's going to be a defensive liability like KAT

 

[Los216]

I think he's saying that scouts really value offense in number one picks. Ayton would be an impact big from day 1 but I do think he's going to be a defensive liability like KAT

I don't think he's going to be defensive liability.

 

[Nathan S]

I think what DA is saying is of all the players Ayton is being seen as more of a lock than anyone else.

A lock to go high, or a lock to be good? I do think he's a lock to go high, but I think *most* people see him as a high-risk high-reward prospect. Almost every projection you read will have several "ifs" like "if he plays with the fire he had in this one game" and "if he extends his range to the 3-point line" and "if he really applies himself on defense."

 

[Muffinalt]

I don't think he's going to be defensive liability.

Please ellaborate, because by all indications so far he seems to project to be pretty bad.

 

[Nathan S]

Added Bamba and Ayton; 10 players done.

Snipped due to character limit; follow quote link for Doncic/JJJ/Smith/Carter/Young/Porter/Porter/Bagley

Mohamed Bamba (37/60 overall)

Spoiler

Perimeter offense - simple rating 3/10, advanced rating 3/10

Low 3-point volume and mediocre 3-point and free throw percentages suggest he's a ways away, but improving mechanics and work ethic give a significant glimmer of hope.

Interior offense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 7/10

Fairly low skill level for his age; usually not a threat unless he catches the ball in good position around the basket. Big-time finisher thanks to outstanding length and athleticism, though average instincts and physicality may allow more experienced NBA defenders to limit his impact.

Team offense - simple rating 1/10, advanced rating 2/10

Not the 0-IQ basketcase his super-low assist rate implies, but certainly did look a step slow processing the college game at times, which could foreshadow bigger trouble at the next level. Showed some tendency to fade into the background when not actively involved in the play.

Total offense - 12/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 7/10, advanced rating 8/10

Good fundamentals when switched onto perimeter player. Not overly quick laterally, but uses his length well to contain and recover.

Interior defense - simple rating 10+/10, advanced rating 10/10

Potential to be one of the best in this area. Size and good feet allow him to suffocate most bigs in the paint, though he still may be vulnerable at this stage to some super-strong NBA bigs.

Team defense - simple rating 2/10, advanced rating 7/10

Outstanding rim protector, and showed some flashes of leadership on this end, though his intensity seemed to wax and wane. A questionable decision maker at times, in spite of sterling reputation. A dominating presence inside, but often got lured out of the paint chasing blocks, a tendency savvy offensive players took advantage of at times. Similarly, was sometimes too eager to switch onto perimeter players, apparently not realizing that the opponent was seeking this switch to create a mismatch behind him in the paint.

Total defense - 25/30

DeAndre Ayton (32/60 overall)

Spoiler

Perimeter offense - simple rating 2/10, advanced rating 3/10

Very low 3-point volume in college, but decent shooting form and relatively high volume from midrange suggests he may extend his range out to the NBA 3-point line someday.

Interior offense - simple rating 9/10, advanced rating 9/10

Outstanding athletic gifts make up for fairly modest skillset. Has the strength and athleticism to be an elite finisher inside, though he showed some hesitance to put these tools to use when faced with physical defenders. Tendency to settle for fadeaways when he catches the ball in the high post can be frustrating, and reflects a general hesitance to put the ball on the floor against defensive pressure.

Team offense - simple rating 2/10, advanced rating 3/10

Shows decent awareness, but has a bit of a selfish streak. Not clear how he'll adapt to being a second or third option at the NBA level. Doesn't seem to be much of a leader on the court. Motor runs cold when he's not getting consistent touches, when his team is down, when things aren't going his way.

Total offense - 15/30


Perimeter defense - simple rating 6/10, advanced rating 7/10

Length and athleticism help a lot in perimeter situations, but they're negated somewhat by below-average fundamentals and instincts. Will bite on pump fakes, and not particularly quick changing directions.

Interior defense - simple rating 10/10, advanced rating 8/10

Tantalizing physical tools make him a formidable 1-on-1 defender in the post, but doesn't naturally play with an edge, and poor fundamentals make him less vertically imposing than he should be. Avoids fouling to a fault.

Team defense - simple rating 4/10, advanced rating 2/10

Remarkably poor awareness, especially in the paint where he often fails to make even the most basic rotations. Not much of a shot blocker in help defense, as he's very often out of position and surprisingly floorbound in spite of his prodigious vertical athleticism. Pace-and-space offenses threatened to run him off the floor at times. Unclear if lapses are due to overwhelming apathy or a genuine failure to process what's going on around him.

Total defense - 17/30

 

[Derek]

1. Doncic
2. Bamba
3. Jackson Jr.

4. Ayton
5. Carter Jr.

6. Porter Jr.

7. Bagley
8. Bridges, Mikal


Get me one of these 8 guys, and I'll be extremely pleased

 

[2 For The Brew]

Draft Lottery Comments:

- There's a very interesting possibility early on. The Clippers are at 13 and have Detroit's pick if it's outside the top 4. Therefore, if we don't see the Clippers name twice in a row, it means one of the picks is in the top three -- but NOBODY will know (outside the locked draft room) whether it belongs to the Clippers or the Pistons. (of course if we don't see the Clippers at all, then both went top three -- extremely unlikely).

- Outside of hoping for the Brooklyn pick to move up, the most important thing we want to see as Cavalier fans is Philly's name to come up early. If the Lakers' pick moves up, that means it belongs to Philly at #1 or Boston at #2 or #3. Given the low number of ping pong balls it's very likely to be 2 or 3, but having that pick go to either Philly or Boston would suck for us.

- If the Cavaliers pick moves up then the the key question will be who else is in the top three. At the commercial break simply take the # of balls of the top three and divide that into the Cavaliers 28 balls - that's our probability of landing 1st.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

1. Bamba
2. Jackson
3. Ayton
4. Porter Jr.
5. Doncic

This is my wish list in order.

The day we traded Kyrie, I predicted at best we would get 8th best odds with that Brooklyn pick. I had teams like Indiana worse so I wont beat my chest on the prediction but I did have a healthy understanding of how good Atkinson is as a coach (Stevens-like in system over talent).

The truth of the matter now, is we need some magic tonight in order to not have terribly lost the Kyrie trade, frankly. We helped set Boston up to be contenders for the next decade. Not just by helping resolve the short term IT/Crowder log jam, but by giving them a top 15 player and 25 yr old champion PG to cement their system and expedite the development of their young assets.

Our future holds in the balance based on how these ping pong balls fall tonight. Doncic makes my list because there is a real chance we begin our rebuild this summer, honestly. The one caveat is that I would take Miles Bridges if it meant Bron is recommitting with another Klutch kid onboard and we got game changing veteran help with whoever we traded down with to get him.

I'm hopeful.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Draft Lottery Comments:

- There's a very interesting possibility early on. The Clippers are at 13 and have Detroit's pick if it's outside the top 4. Therefore, if we don't see the Clippers name twice in a row, it means one of the picks is in the top three -- but NOBODY will know (outside the locked draft room) whether it belongs to the Clippers or the Pistons. (of course if we don't see the Clippers at all, then both went top three -- extremely unlikely).

- Outside of hoping for the Brooklyn pick to move up, the most important thing we want to see as Cavalier fans is Philly's name to come up early. If the Lakers' pick moves up, that means it belongs to Philly at #1 or Boston at #2 or #3. Given the low number of ping pong balls it's very likely to be 2 or 3, but having that pick go to either Philly or Boston would suck for us.

- If the Cavaliers pick moves up then the the key question will be who else is in the top three. At the commercial break simply take the # of balls of the top three and divide that into the Cavaliers 28 balls - that's our probability of landing 1st.

The pistons pick cannot fall in the 4-11 range. It will either be 1, 2, 3, 12, 13, or 14. So if the Pistons card doesn't show up 12-14, they'll already know they are keeping the pick.

The concept you are think of though applies to the Laker's pick which is owned by Boston if it falls 2 or 3, or to Philly if it falls at 1, 10, 11, 12, or 13. So if their card does not come up between 10-13, it is guaranteed top 3... and then at that point nobody would know if a top 3 pick would be going to Philly or to Boston. If the pick IS in the top 3, then there is a 27.5% it lands at 1 and goes to Philly, and there is a 72.5% chance it will land at 2 or 3 and go to Boston.

 

[Cavatt]

I'm really torn if we get the top pick about what we need? I would feel very comfortable at 3 to take Bamba. If we get #1 do I really want a scorer around the basket like Ayton who is not very good defensively? I think I would rather take Doncic who is a great isolation scorer and passer. Would be better fit for our shooters.

Very tough call. At 8 I take Bamba(no way he is still there) or Mikal Bridges.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I'm really torn if we get the top pick about what we need? I would feel very comfortable at 3 to take Bamba. If we get #1 do I really want a scorer around the basket like Ayton who is not very good defensively? I think I would rather take Doncic who is a great isolation scorer and passer. Would be better fit for our shooters.

Very tough call. At 8 I take Bamba(no way he is still there) or Mikal Bridges.

Dear God the Ayton vs Doncic debate for a month on here would be a near death experience for me.

 

[Cavatt]

Dear God the Ayton vs Doncic debate for a month on here would be a near death experience for me.

Whats your point of view here? An offensive center with no defensive ability seems like a really bad fit for the cavs.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Whats your point of view here? An offensive center with no defensive ability seems like a really bad fit for the cavs.

Doncic is the best player in the draft to me. There's a number of players I'd prefer for the Cavs over Ayton, but I'd expect that's the way they'd go if they got #1. I wouldn't say he has no defensive ability... He is a little bit switchable and at least has the tools to protect the rim in the future (though my best guess is that outcome is <25%). I don't think that would go well lol.

 

[Cavatt]

Doncic is the best player in the draft to me. There's a number of players I'd prefer for the Cavs over Ayton, but I'd expect that's the way they'd go if they got #1. I wouldn't say he has no defensive ability... He is a little bit switchable and at least has the tools to protect the rim in the future (though my best guess is that outcome is <25%). I don't think that would go well lol.

Doncic fits the team like a glove I think. What position does he play? I am just not sure. Do you start Lebron at PF and Doncic at the 3?