who I really feel confident going forward in the draft... No particular order or ranking, just guys I enjoyed watching...
Grayson Allen, wing, Duke
In today’s modern NBA, there is an added emphasis and value for guys who can do all of the following: shoot, pass, dribble, defend and play smart.
The Warriors are a prime example of that and the Celtics pushed the Cavs to the brink because they had a team comprised of those players. Either team can put players on the floor and not have to feel they will have to ‘hide’ a player.
The game is all about matchups. The more mismatches you can create offensively and the more mismatches you can take away defensively, you become the better team. As they say, you’re only as strong as your weakest link.
So, Grayson Allen… what does any of that have to do with him?
Well, because he’s a five-tool guy, or pretty close to it.
I've
already written at length about what a good shooter Allen is. He’s got range, he can shoot on the move and is one of the better all-around shooters in the draft. That will play well and should translate at the next level.
He was a career 38% 3PT shooter and consistently hovered in the low-mid 80’s at the free-throw line. His overall efficiency from the field slumped the last two years, which is correlated to his dependency on the three-pointer. His 3PTr (percentage of FG attempts from 3-point range) went from 42% his sophomore year to nearly 64% his senior year. Additionally, his FTr (number of FT attempts per FG attempt) went from 49% his sophomore year to only 29% his senior year.
Is this a trend worth monitoring? Yes, but it needs to be looked at in the context of Allen’s role within Duke’s team. His sophomore year, they had three other players (almost four) who hit at least one three-pointer a game. By his senior year, Duke only had one. With the way Mike Krzyzewski constructed the team, Allen role dramatically shifted from being one of many shooters to primarily the only shooter.
His role on the team also improved for the better, showing off his versatile skillset. His assist rate rose from his sophomore to senior season; the ball was placed in his hands more and took on an additional playmaking role. By the end of the year year, Allen was acting as back-up point guard and, at times, more effective than Trevon Duval.
View: https://twitter.com/preptopros/status/937921146112086016
While not possessing the quickest first step, Allen is able to get in the lane (with both hands) and prior to this year, showed a penchant for getting to the line. He’s particularly effective operating in the pick-and-roll where he’s able to get his own shot or find shooters. He’s not likely capable of being a primary facilitator but for a guy who’s likely going to be an accessory wing piece, his skills will be an added bonus. Bottom line, he can be trusted to make plays with the ball in his hands.
Defensively, Allen should be able hold his own and not be a liability. While not a perimeter stopper, he has the length and athletic ability to follow two-guards around the floor. He scored as one of the better athletes at the Combine, posting the top lane agility time and ranking in the top-10 in shuttle run and vertical jumps.
The inevitable black eye of Allen is tripping incidents in college. Those incidents should be scrutinized by NBA teams but are impossible to classify by most. Without the background information, and time, that NBA teams spend around these players, it’s hard to correctly identify the personality side of a prospect. Even still, NBA teams have varying opinions. So with that, I don’t evaluate the person I evaluate the prospect.
All I know is what I see on the tape and what I see is a player worthy of a higher selection in the draft then where he’s currently being ranked.
Donte DiVincenzo, guard, Villanova
At the beginning of the year, I turned on Villanova to watch Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson and Omari Spellman play Temple and Xavier. While I came for those players, I stayed for The Big Ragu (shouts to Gus Johnson).
DiVincenzo pops off the screen; both for his play (athletic, bouncy) and the way he plays (aggressive, with energy). He’s always moving, always competing and always around the ball. He was a spark plug off the bench and practically was a starter with the minutes and role he was playing at Villanova. When Jalen Brunson sat down, DiVincenzo took over the ball-handling and playmaking duties.
Players can be typecast with their roles in college, some fair and some not. While I don’t want to put a cap on DiVincenzo’s potential, his role as a super sixth man in the league should be appealing to teams.
For the most part, he will be most effective on the ball. His biggest asset offensively will be his ability to create—for himself and for other players. He possesses a good first step and clear quick-twitch movement traits. He’s able to get to his spaces on the floor with plus athleticism and adept ball-handling. He was well-known in the tournament for taking and making tough shots, but that behavior was apparent in many games prior. What separates scorers at the next level is those who can score when teams are expecting them to score. When he gets hot, he gets hot. He’s a not volume scorer, as he was efficient from all levels, but he’s able to put up a high volume of points, quickly.
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Part of the allure and fun in watching the Big Ragu is the swagu (did I do that right?) he plays with. It’s not quantifiable or even one that parlays itself into being a better player, but it’s a part of his game that makes him who he is. In my notes on DiVincenzo, I have aggressive, energetic, active and confident all listed. It culminates with him as a good tough shot maker and a guy who really has a scorer’s mentality.
Now, sometimes that overzealousness will cost him. There were times on tape where that got the better of him (see March 23 vs. West Virginia, first half) and he went stretches playing outside himself. But for some coaches, they’d rather tame or redirect that energy instead of trying to bring it out. While not a downside, DiVincenzo will need to embrace the mentality he has while learning to play better with it in situations.
While not producing high assist numbers at Villanova, Jay Wright did trust DiVincenzo a lot with the ball, especially in crunch time. That should speak well to future coaches. While a shoot-first player, he does consistently show the ability and willingness to make plays for others. This will be a secondary skillset but one that can be an asset.
It’s not surprising to see DiVincenzo slowly climb up the boards throughout the process. He performed well at the Combine and has been showing out in team visits. I think teams were skeptical by the way he exploded onto the scene during tournament time but once they got a chance to examine him, they realized he’s more than a tournament player and actually a really good overall player.
Chimezie Metu, big, USC
This is a big man heavy draft, particularly at the top. There’s probably six bigs that will go in the lottery and then Mitchell Robinson will have a wide range. But after the top crew of bigs, the talent falls off—quickly. If your team doesn’t find one at the top, they might be waiting a while.
That’s where Chimezie Metu comes in.
While not ranked in the top big man group, I came away impressed watching Metu scouting USC.
Like DiVincenzo, he will make some ‘wow’ plays. In the four games I watched of Metu, there’s been at least one or two dunks/athletic plays per game that make you get out of your seat. He posted a 36-inch max vertical leap at the Combine, which was one of the top marks for big men. This manifested itself in explosive finishes around the rim and overall very athletic looking moves for a big.
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Standing 6’9’ (without shoes) with a 9’0” standing reach, the leaping ability shows itself as a weak side shot blocker. Equally adept at using the rule of verticality, his timing and instincts lead to being the main rim protector for USC. His 2.2 blocks per 40 minutes won’t grade out amongst some of the better shot-blockers in the draft but his shot deterrent abilities were noticeable on film.
Another strong point for Metu is offensively with the ball in his hands. For a big, becoming comfortable with the ball in your hands, especially away from the perimeter, is more common place. While not a necessity, bigs who can operate with the ball in tight quarters are an asset. He’s more comfortable in the face-up game at this point but there are some good flashes of him operating on the block. His true value will be as a roll big man, where he’s able to catch lobs finish shots created by others.
He dabbled with some long range shots (12 made 3-pointers) and does have a good free-throw stroke (73% and 74% last two years). While not a staple in his game, Metu did show the ability to make a jumper and was comfortable doing so. If he is able to extend his range further, and perhaps with better efficiency, the 3&D big is becoming valuable.
Metu won’t be a high level prospect, but can be a good role player off the bench. A team looking for an athletic big, with shot-blocking capabilities and touch on the offensive end, would make a wise investment with Metu.
Ray Spalding, big, Louisville
I enjoy using the
Sports Reference Play Season Finder tool. I’m able to isolate certain traits or strengths that show through in the box score and see how players stack up in history.
In the case of Ray Spalding, he’s in pretty good company.
Spalding was one of four players this year to average 1.5+ steals and 1.5+ blocks per game. Take it a step further, only nine players in the last nine years have put up 1.5+ steals, 1.5+ blocks and 3+ offensive rebounds per game.
The reason I enjoy digging into some of these stats, perhaps not as advanced as others, is they paint a picture of what elite skills the player has.
Spalding is a former top-50ish recruit and one of the best players coming out of Kentucky in 2015. He was a rotational piece his first two years at Louisville and only consistently started this year, his junior season. So it’s no surprise his game really took a step forward.
The Combine wasn’t too friendly to Spalding, as some of his agility numbers were towards the middle end of the spectrum. Although, he did post a 9’1” standing reach which was tied for seventh best.
The athletic testing at the Combine was surprising considering his play didn’t suggest being an average athlete. He is very active at both ends, particularly around the basket. He has good agility for a big, moves well and is a quick jumper.
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Most of his offense is around the rim and finishing. 8.8 of his 9.4 of his field goal attempts were within two-point range. He’s a fairly opportunistic scorer, finding scoring chances off of perimeter penetration and hustle plays. There were flashes of offensive ability but Spalding was often limited in one-on-one plays.
On the other end, Spalding could provide good minutes for a team looking to have an energy/defensive big anchor their second unit. His motor is always running high and shows good effort on this end. His defensive versatility profiles well, posting strong numbers in steals, blocks and rebounding. His agility and mobility will play well in pick-and-roll chances, where the game has shifted.
Spalding will get drafted later but he’s the type of prospect teams will enjoy because of his energy and athletic ability for a big. The traits are there to continue to grow, especially since his starting role was very late in his college career.
For any team missing out on Jaren Jackson Jr. early, Ray Spalding profiles as a cheaper alternative.
Shake Milton, guard, SMU
Why isn’t there more talk surrounding Shake Milton?
Perhaps that’s why I’m writing this, but the question remains.
There are a lot of good guards at the top but in today’s day-and-age where wingspan and shooting are really valued, and not often found in lead guards, Milton deserves more mention.
To put into perspective Milton’s length, he had a 7’0.75” wingspan at 6’4.5” without shoes. That wingspan is on par with last year’s lotto pick Zach Collins and longer than the wingspan of Marquese Chriss. Both of whom are 4+ inches taller than Milton.
He was a career 42% 3-point shooter at SMU, even taking just over five a game. He also considerably improved his free-throw shooting to 84.7%, up from the low-mid 70’s the two previous years.
If there was a game that really showed off his range, his 33 point performance on the road versus Wichita State would be the game. His range extends beyond the arc and is very reliable when his feet are set. Equally as impressive, particularly that game, is his ability to create three-point opportunities and make contested shots. In the NBA, scorers need to be effective with hands in their face, particularly off the dribble, and Milton did that against future NBAer Landry Shamet.
One area his game dramatically improved this year was getting to the free throw line. His free-throw attempts doubled in the same amount of games this year. If he’s able to keep that pace up at the next level, he will be an advanced metrics dream getting to the line and being an efficient 3PT and FT shooter. While not overly explosive, I’m not sure he has to be. He’s able to cover large areas of the floor in such small time frames, with his long stride and long frame; he’s able to get from point A to point B, efficiently.
His playmaking ability wasn’t truly on display at SMU. While not possessing the vision of some other guard prospects, Milton is capable of leading an offense. SMU ran a very structured, play-by-design offense that some of the ingenuity and chances for flair didn’t come out as often. With this, he did play within the structure of the offense and was opportunistic with his playmaking. He very much was a calm, collected, stabilizing force.
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What really impressed me was the high level of efficiency considering his role. He was able to sustain high levels of productivity playing 36 minutes per game, including 12 of 22 games with 38+ minutes this last season.
While SMU relied heavily on sets offensively, they only won 2 of their last 11 games with Milton out. The team was heavily reliant on Milton’s scoring ability and they were not able to make up his share of responsibility.
Milton is the type of player who should be able to carve out a nice backup role initially because of his length and pure shooting ability. But slowly as he’s given more minutes, I can see his role growing because of the traits he displayed in college and is the type of player coaches like to trust.
