• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

2018 NBA Draft - June 21

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
5. The top-10 sleeper
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Jaren Jackson Jr. | Michigan State

It's hard to call a potential top-10 pick on a Final Four contender a sleeper, but Jackson was a late-riser at the high school level, and he has the tools, agility and skill set to work his way into the top half of this list.

Physical comparison: Myles Turner, Dewayne Dedmon

At 6-foot-11 with a 240-pound frame and a 7-foot-4 wingspan, Jackson has some similarities to Myles Turner. Jackson, who turned 18 on Sept. 15, is more fluid than Turner and further along strength-wise at the same age.

Main intrigue: Agility, length and touch

Jackson broke out at the 2017 Nike Hoop Summit and wowed NBA scouts as one of the top prospects at the Nike Academy in Los Angeles this summer. He's an excellent fit in the modern NBA, as he can protect the rim and switch on defense while spacing the floor and straight-line driving on offense. He has touch with either hand in the paint and stretch potential, despite a low-release push shot with limited rotation.

Jackson could have a Myles Turner-like shooting trajectory, killing the midrange in the NCAA and eventually becoming a more consistent threat from NBA 3 down the line. He's still a bit of a blank canvas, but NBA scouts are sure to fall in love with his combination of tools, fluidity and budding skill.

Swing skills: Toughness and feel

Although he has made great strides physically, Jackson lacks a degree of toughness you'd like to see in a big who will play a lot of 5 in the NBA. With a rebounds-per-40 average of 10.2 over 32 games in the DraftExpress Database, Jackson has had his struggles on the defensive glass. His feel for the game on both ends is a work in progress. Although fairly skilled, he doesn't provide much in the playmaking department and will have to be able to play read-and-react basketball if he wants to operate more on the perimeter. That said, Jackson is in an excellent position to improve in these areas under the tutelage of Tom Izzo.

Top-10 Picks 6-10 Or Taller, By Year
YEAR#PLAYERS
20173Jonathan Isaac, Lauri Markkanen, Zach Collins
20164Ben Simmons, Marquese Chriss, Jakob Poeltl, Thon Maker
20154Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, Willie Cauley-Stein, Frank Kaminsky
20141Joel Embiid
20133Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel
20122Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond
20113Enes Kanter, Jonas Valanciunas, Jan Vesely
20104Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins, Ekpe Udoh, Greg Monroe
20093Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, Jordan Hill
20081Brook Lopez
20077Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Yi, Brandan Wright, Joakim Noah and Spencer Hawes
20064Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Patrick O'Bryant, Saer Sene
20053Andrew Bogut, Channing Frye, Andrew Bynum
20043Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Rafael Araujo
20033Darko Milicic, Chris Bosh, Chris Kaman
20025Yao Ming, Drew Gooden, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Nene Hilario, Amare stoudemire
20016Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, Eddy Curry, Eddie Griffin, Desagana Diop
20003Stromile Swift, Chris Mihm, Joel Przbilla
19992Lamar Odom, Jonathan Bender
19983Michael Olowokandi, Raef Lafrentz, Dirk Nowitzki
19975Tim Duncan, Keith Van Horn, Tony Battie, Tim Thomas, Adonal Foyle
19963Marcus Camby, Lorenzen Wright, Erick Damipier
19954Joe Smith, Rasheed Wallace, Kevin Garnett, Bryant Reeves
19942Sharone Wright, Eric Montross
19932Shawn Bradley, Vin Baker
19924Shaquille O'Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Christian Laettner, Tom Gugliotta
19913Dikembe Mutombo, Doug Smith, Luc Longley
19902Derrick Coleman, Felton Spencer
19892Danny Ferry, Stacey King
19884Danny Manning, Rik Smits, Charles Smith, Rony Seikaly
19874David Robinson, Olden Polynice, Horace Grant
19865Brad Daugherty, Chris Washburn, William Bedford, Roy Tarpley, Brad Sellers
19854Patrick Ewing, Benoit Benjamin, Jon Koncak, Joe Kleine
19843Hakeem Olajuwon, Sam Bowie, Mel Turpin
19834Ralph Sampson, Steve Stipanovich, Russell Cross, Thurl Bailey
19821Lasalle Thompson
19811Steve Johnson
19803Joe Barry Carroll, Kevin McHale, Mike Gmins
 
If Mo keeps this defensive dominance and the other top picks keep showing their flaws then i'm not sure he is there where we pick.

Rebuild with Bamba without Lebron is questionable, but Bamba with Lebron is probably going to tip the scales. It's so rare to see a player so dominant on the defensive end.

The Gobert comparisons are premature, because they are not a like other than the physical similarities. Gobert can't defend in space, Bamba can and does it pretty damn well. Bamba is more mobile and can cover more ground aswell. He is weaker and that's going to take some time, but i'm ecstatic about him.

As for Ayton, well, if Embiid can barely pull a positive impact on the offensive end, what makes you think Ayton is going to be able to do that ? Embiid is bigger and stronger, can shoot the the ball better from every range, better finisher and yet the advanced stats don't favour him still at the side of the ball even when he puts crazy raw stats every game.

League has changed, and if Ayton doesn't look like a much better defender later on, then it's a hard pass for me. No matter how physically dominant he is, he is just not going to have a great impact offensively as much as you would think. His shot looks good on paper, but it's a work in progress and he favours it way too much. Even in an interview, he said he sees himself as a 4 that plays from the outside. He doesn't want to view himself as this physical 5 that bullies his way inside and that's a problem.

His elevation after a gather off of 2 legs is pretty bad for a guy with his athletic prowess. It's slow and unexplosive and his separation is pretty bad against College bigs. Had trouble finishing his shots after a gather and he got questionable foul calls in his favor.
I would expect a guy his size to dunk after a gather against college bigs so that's disappointing.

On defense he just has no defensive awareness. His off-ball defense is nonexistant and he doesn't defend outside of his zone. Even his rebounding is limited to his zone... he allows offensive rebounds mainly because he is out of position and he doesn't cover enough ground to offset that. He is an elite rebounder, but that doesn't translate to good reb% for the team in that case.

All in all, i'd pick Mo over Ayton without thinking twice. Just doesn't look like he understands the game yet and his love for the game is questionable.

If there isn't a big talent gap between two players, i'd go with the high IQ, high character guy that has an absurd ceiling every damn time on a team and city like the Cleveland. Ayton looks immature and if things don't go his way, watch out.

I don't care what the numbers say, Embiid is one of the best offensive centers in the league and can win you a game offensively all on his own. Ayton is far off from that, but I don't like that blanket statement that is essentially saying no center capable of scoring will ever have a positive impact offensively.

You did point out one of the most important things with Ayton to me - his lack of explosiveness. It takes watching him a few times to realize it, being that he's just so big and has a great frame, but he really isn't that explosive. That to me is a red flag for his defensive abilities in the future. I can't tell you how many times you'll see him rotate from the weakside, but not make an effort to jump and contest off a drive - he's just not quick off of his feet whatsoever, it makes no sense looking at him. And like you said, you see it on the offensive end as well. Given his size, he should be dunking much more often.

As far as those worried about his blocked shots beyond this, I wouldn't be too worried in those numbers. Teams have consistently been running out 5 guard lineups against Arizona, trying to negate their size (they start another 7 footer next to Ayton). If you just watch the recent game highlights you'll see fairly regularly Ayton being all the way out on the perimeter having to guard a wing or stretch 4.
 
I don't care what the numbers say, Embiid is one of the best offensive centers in the league and can win you a game offensively all on his own. Ayton is far off from that, but I don't like that blanket statement that is essentially saying no center capable of scoring will ever have a positive impact offensively.

You did point out one of the most important things with Ayton to me - his lack of explosiveness. It takes watching him a few times to realize it, being that he's just so big and has a great frame, but he really isn't that explosive. That to me is a red flag for his defensive abilities in the future. I can't tell you how many times you'll see him rotate from the weakside, but not make an effort to jump and contest off a drive - he's just not quick off of his feet whatsoever, it makes no sense looking at him. And like you said, you see it on the offensive end as well. Given his size, he should be dunking much more often.

As far as those worried about his blocked shots beyond this, I wouldn't be too worried in those numbers. Teams have consistently been running out 5 guard lineups against Arizona, trying to negate their size (they start another 7 footer next to Ayton). If you just watch the recent game highlights you'll see fairly regularly Ayton being all the way out on the perimeter having to guard a wing or stretch 4.


Ayton plays the 4 with Ristic at the 5 because he thinks he is a 4. He plays like a 4. He is being matched up against much smaller guys that he should dominate. He hasn't played against a real stretch 4 yet, just undersized 4's.

Embiid will have great offensive impact, but it takes time for a big man, especially when so many teams shoot 3's. Ebmiid is on another level than Ayton on both ends and I don't think it's close. I was just making a comparison that even one of the most unique, diverse, dominant offensive big man in the league still doesn't have favourable numbers on the offensive end. Like you, I think his offensive impact goes beyond the numbers, but still.

I have a bad feeling with Ayton. I don't like him.
 
Man, his shot has been really really rough. It doesn't look like there are glaring faults in his mechanics as well, he just has no idea where it's going. There's so much to like about his game, but I'm not sure you can take him over Doncic and the two centers if he's that far away from being a threat outside of 10 feet.

On the other hand, I'm amazed every time I see Bamba's shooting form. It's way better than a 7 footer with a 7'9" wingspan has a right to be and I'm pretty confident he can extend his range out to the NBA 3 given enough time and practice reps.

View: https://twitter.com/Mike_Schmitz/status/933868136897458176


Also, can someone post this?

View: https://twitter.com/Mike_Schmitz/status/933879902255714304

Yea Bagley's shot is not all that it's hyped up to be. Shooting 50% from the FT line too, many of which are bad misses left and right.

I just don't understand the excitement and hype. 80%+ of his numbers come from bullying guys 6-8 inches shorter than him and getting and-ones regularly. Not much of it will translate in my opinion.

The other thing people have regularly gotten excited about for no reason with Bagley and others is ball-handling from your bigs. Who cares? It's the Draymond effect. People for whatever reason right now think that ball-handling out of your bigs is something you want/need, but what makes Draymond great is his passing ability coupled with the ball handling. Saw it as well with Henry Ellenson. Great, the big can dribble the ball, who gives a shit? Do people want an NBA team to run pick and rolls with Bagley as the ball handler? I just don't get it.

I'm slowly starting to see people realize Bagley might not even be a top 5 guy in this draft. Unfortunately media like the ESPN hype machine who are ignorant on the subject get one or two players' names in their minds and declare them the #1 pick 10 months prior to the draft. Shoutout to Skal Labissiere. Rant over lol.
 
Ayton plays the 4 with Ristic at the 5 because he thinks he is a 4. He plays like a 4. He is being matched up against much smaller guys that he should dominate. He hasn't played against a real stretch 4 yet, just undersized 4's.

Embiid will have great offensive impact, but it takes time for a big man, especially when so many teams shoot 3's. Ebmiid is on another level than Ayton on both ends and I don't think it's close. I was just making a comparison that even one of the most unique, diverse, dominant offensive big man in the league still doesn't have favourable numbers on the offensive end. Like you, I think his offensive impact goes beyond the numbers, but still.

I have a bad feeling with Ayton. I don't like him.

I agree, but if anyone is drafting Ayton with the expectation of Embiid's level of offensive production, then they deserve a bad player lol.

I'm still not ready to say he's not a good defender... and probably won't even have a great sense of it even into after the season.
 
Yea Bagley's shot is not all that it's hyped up to be. Shooting 50% from the FT line too, many of which are bad misses left and right.

I just don't understand the excitement and hype. 80%+ of his numbers come from bullying guys 6-8 inches shorter than him and getting and-ones regularly. Not much of it will translate in my opinion.

The other thing people have regularly gotten excited about for no reason with Bagley and others is ball-handling from your bigs. Who cares? It's the Draymond effect. People for whatever reason right now think that ball-handling out of your bigs is something you want/need, but what makes Draymond great is his passing ability coupled with the ball handling. Saw it as well with Henry Ellenson. Great, the big can dribble the ball, who gives a shit? Do people want an NBA team to run pick and rolls with Bagley as the ball handler? I just don't get it.

I'm slowly starting to see people realize Bagley might not even be a top 5 guy in this draft. Unfortunately media like the ESPN hype machine who are ignorant on the subject get one or two players' names in their minds and declare them the #1 pick 10 months prior to the draft. Shoutout to Skal Labissiere. Rant over lol.

Agree 100%.

Bagley is just bullying guys with his size and elite second jump.

Offensively, he is so limited. He is so right handed dominant that I'm having hard time seeing how he is going to score in the NBA when teams take out his left lane. Even when he goes to the right, he twists his body to try and finish with his left.

He looks like a taller Julius Randle without the explosiveness with the ball. It's nice that he can handle the ball some like you said, but it's ineffective because he isn't fast with it. Draymond is very explosive with the ball and there is zero chance Bagley becomes anything like that.

He is a project and he is certainly out of my top 5.
 
Agree 100%.

Bagley is just bullying guys with his size and elite second jump.

Offensively, he is so limited. He is so right handed dominant that I'm having hard time seeing how he is going to score in the NBA when teams take out his left lane. Even when he goes to the right, he twists his body to try and finish with his left.

He looks like a taller Julius Randle without the explosiveness with the ball. It's nice that he can handle the ball some like you said, but it's ineffective because he isn't fast with it. Draymond is very explosive with the ball and there is zero chance Bagley becomes anything like that.

He is a project and he is certainly out of my top 5.

Yep he's literally a two inch taller Julius Randle without the refined skills. Randle can't even start for a non-playoff team right now. And didn't even mention his lack of length, which for whatever reason isn't hardly talked about even in today's basketball world.

Glad I'm not the only one that's not high on him lol. I guarantee the Phoenix Suns end up drafting Bagley. Every year they take someone I'm not that high on. I actually rank out the top 60 or so players before the draft just for fun. I had Josh Jackson 8th last year, and Bender 9th/Marquess Chriss 12th the year before. Didn't really see any other rankings that had any of those guys lower than that lol. And by the looks of it, I'll be lower on Bagley than everyone too.
 
Must-read article from The Stepien breaking down Ayton's game against NC State defensively, including video.

https://www.thestepien.com/2017/11/24/film-breakdown-deandre-aytons-defense-vs-nc-state/

The complete lack of rim protector mentality right now is what's keeping him from being the #2 guy for me. He looks like Enes Kanter inside right now defensively. From the outside looking in, it doesn't seem like it would be that difficult to improve so we'll see how he progresses.

With some writers moving to The Athletic, and DX going to ESPN, I've been trying to find good draft content. This site has had some interesting stuff lately, I recommend checking out their site.
 
Must-read article from The Stepien breaking down Ayton's game against NC State defensively, including video.

https://www.thestepien.com/2017/11/24/film-breakdown-deandre-aytons-defense-vs-nc-state/

The complete lack of rim protector mentality right now is what's keeping him from being the #2 guy for me. He looks like Enes Kanter inside right now defensively. From the outside looking in, it doesn't seem like it would be that difficult to improve so we'll see how he progresses.

With some writers moving to The Athletic, and DX going to ESPN, I've been trying to find good draft content. This site has had some interesting stuff lately, I recommend checking out their site.

Good stuff.

Makes Kevin Love look like an elite shot blocker.
 
Man, this class is already getting picked apart haha. Bagley a taller Julius Randle, Ayton a more athletic Enes Kanter, Porter out for the year.

Yikes.
 
Agree 100%.

Bagley is just bullying guys with his size and elite second jump.

Offensively, he is so limited. He is so right handed dominant that I'm having hard time seeing how he is going to score in the NBA when teams take out his left lane. Even when he goes to the right, he twists his body to try and finish with his left.

He looks like a taller Julius Randle without the explosiveness with the ball. It's nice that he can handle the ball some like you said, but it's ineffective because he isn't fast with it. Draymond is very explosive with the ball and there is zero chance Bagley becomes anything like that.

He is a project and he is certainly out of my top 5.

Who's your top 5 right now?
 
Who's your top 5 right now?

Can't really rank them so far, need more info... but I don't like the top 5 outside of Doncic and Bamba... I expect more risers soon because the HS phenoms suck.

1.Doncic
2.Bamba

3.Ayton
4.Porter(not high on him though)

5.Jackson(like him, but need to see more)
6.Bagley

Worthless top 5, I can't rank anyone other than Doncic and Bamba. I can only share my thoughts on them because it's so dynamic. Ayton isn't ranked 3 because he is better than the other guys, he is ranked there because of his potential.

Porter is there because I just can't bump him down yet. He is an intirguing prospect, but I'll probably have him 5th when it's all said and done.
 
Can't really rank them so far, need more info... but I don't like the top 5 outside of Doncic and Bamba... I expect more risers soon because the HS phenoms suck.

1.Doncic
2.Bamba

3.Ayton
4.Porter(not high on him though)

5.Jackson(like him, but need to see more)
6.Bagley

Worthless top 5, I can't rank anyone other than Doncic and Bamba. I can only share my thoughts on them because it's so dynamic. Ayton isn't ranked 3 because he is better than the other guys, he is ranked there because of his potential.

Porter is there because I just can't bump him down yet. He is an intirguing prospect, but I'll probably have him 5th when it's all said and done.

You have a tendency to use really strong language when talking about prospects. Do you really think this top 5 is "worthless" and the phenoms "suck?"

I'm not trying to be overly critical, but I'm trying to understand what you mean. Because when I hear "so and so sucks," my first thought is going to be that they aren't good at basketball.
 
You have a tendency to use really strong language when talking about prospects. Do you really think this top 5 is "worthless" and the phenoms "suck?"

I'm not trying to be overly critical, but I'm trying to understand what you mean. Because when I hear "so and so sucks," my first thought is going to be that they aren't good at basketball.

Yes, I have a tendency to use strong language to a fault. It's a habit.

What I meant was that they were advertised as being being better. Some of them have glaring holes in their game and one of them has an injury that changes the long term outlook of his career. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of them outside the top 5 for players that were unlikely to crack the top 5 before this season.
 

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-13: "Backup Bash Brothers"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:11: "Clipping Bucks."
Top