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2018 NBA Draft - June 21

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Nowhere near him lol. More defensive upside though. I think he has a 7'0 wingspan iirc

Doncic and Simmons have spoiled us a little...before those two, it was almost impossible to find a freshman forward averaging more than like 3 assists per game.

What's Doncic's wingspan, anyway? He had a 8'9.5" standing reach back in summer 2016, which suggests a 7'+ wingspan, but I can't find an official wingspan measurement for him.
 
Doncic and Simmons have spoiled us a little...before those two, it was almost impossible to find a freshman forward averaging more than like 3 assists per game.

What's Doncic's wingspan, anyway? He had a 8'9.5" standing reach back in summer 2016, which suggests a 7'+ wingspan, but I can't find an official wingspan measurement for him.

Here's a spreadsheet that someone on Twitter created with a lot of measurements.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jyms0Yn7e8YfYMseTGXeQbds5oiCGrq6K899z5-BSIs/edit#gid=0




Wiley was another big that was a possible late first rounder. Not sure what he does now draft-wise. Had a huge game in the U19 FIBA tourney. High energy type big.
 
6'11" sounds about right.

Also notice he has Jontay #13 in his latest rankings. I'm not the only one! :chuckle:

I just noticed that ESPN added him into their top 100 at #36. Btw another stat I saw on twitter is that Jontay is shooting just 40% at the rim according to Synergy.

I'm considering getting a subscription to Synergy for all their advanced play-type stats for NCAA. It's $19.99 a month, but such a useful resource. I had figured Porter was poor around the rim just from observations, but it's pretty difficult to get a grasp on who exactly has better success finishing from one guy to the next beyond the obvious.
 
I just noticed that ESPN added him into their top 100 at #36. Btw another stat I saw on twitter is that Jontay is shooting just 40% at the rim according to Synergy.

I'm considering getting a subscription to Synergy for all their advanced play-type stats for NCAA. It's $19.99 a month, but such a useful resource. I had figured Porter was poor around the rim just from observations, but it's pretty difficult to get a grasp on who exactly has better success finishing from one guy to the next beyond the obvious.
I used Synergy for a Sports Management class. Highly suggest it.
 
I used Synergy for a Sports Management class. Highly suggest it.

There's several different versions of it I believe. Did the version you have include the video? That would be a ridiculously useful tool, but I believe that version of Synergy costs a good amount. The price isn't listed on the site, just the "Deep Dive" version that includes the stats.
 
There's several different versions of it I believe. Did the version you have include the video? That would be a ridiculously useful tool, but I believe that version of Synergy costs a good amount. The price isn't listed on the site, just the "Deep Dive" version that includes the stats.
I’m not sure about the version we used, but it has the video in addition to all the advanced stats.

There’s a feature where you can see a highlight for every single stat logged into the database. Say you want to see every steal from Giannis, every post-up score from the right block by Embiid, every fastbreak layup miss from Teague, etc. you can watch the highlight for it.
 
I’m not sure about the version we used, but it has the video in addition to all the advanced stats.

There’s a feature where you can see a highlight for every single stat logged into the database. Say you want to see every steal from Giannis, every post-up score from the right block by Embiid, every fastbreak layup miss from Teague, etc. you can watch the highlight for it.

Yep, that's what I was talking about. The only price the list on their site is just the stats, no video. Not sure on the cost of that version you're talking about. You've got to enter your email and info to get their pricing. It's such an insanely useful tool that every single NBA/NCAA team, players, coaches, scouts, FO use... yet nobody really knows about it. I hope it becomes more mainstream in time.
 
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Dusted off the draft rater I made a few years ago, the last time the Cavs held a lottery pick. There are a lot of things I would do differently if I started from scratch again, but it works reasonably well as currently constructed, at least compared to other public draft raters I've seen (and remaking it from scratch would be a huge project that I don't have time for at the moment).

Since the ratings depend on minutes played, I had to enter projected full-season total instead of to-date totals for each of this year's prospects. To do this, I multiplied stats by (MPG/32)*(1200/Minutes). So, Marvin Bagley's to-date totals were multiplied by a factor of (31.6/32)*(1200/506) = 2.34 to get his projected full-season totals.

This is obviously a bit time-consuming, so I've only entered data for the "big 6" (big-7 minus Porter, who's been injured) prospects so far. I'll add more top prospects as I get around to it. The model is designed for NCAA prospects, so Doncic's rating obviously sells him short to some degree (he'd presumably put up somewhat better stats if he were playing in the NCAA).

I also have Anthony Davis's stats and rating on this page. I entered them here to make sure I reconstructed the model correctly. He was the highest rated prospect in my sample.

On the second sheet (click "Sheet 2" in the bottom left), I have the top-100 ranked historical prospects using this model, and also the top-100 ranked historical prospects using a simple linear model for comparison. That the simple linear model does so poorly illustrates the difficulty in making a good draft rater...


A couple remarks on the results:

EDIT: fixed a minor bug, which shifted the rankings slightly

-Ayton will rank 3rd in my sample if he keeps up this pace, behind only Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant.

-Doncic will rank 12th if he keeps up this pace, extremely impressive considering that he's playing in Euroleague.

-Jackson will rank 19th if he keeps up this pace, solid, but a significant notch below Ayton and Doncic.

-Young will rank around 50th, perhaps surprisingly. His small stature and mediocre defensive stats suggest that he's likely to struggle against NBA athletes. EDIT: In particular, his low offensive rebound rate and (paradoxically) his low foul rate hurt his rating. For players who commit few fouls, foul rate is a reasonable proxy for effort level, so Young projects as a guy who will slack off on defense, which may or may not be true for him at the NBA level. Frankly, he's just too much of an outlier in too many ways for the draft rater to work correctly on him.

-Bagley will rank around 70th, in mid-lottery pick territory. His weak all-around game drags down his rating.

-Bamba will rank just outside the top-100. Red flags like his very low assist rate, along with his age (old for a freshman), drag down his rating.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h98LyhYUQHnGQTSMJTj3i_0Lj4iF03oHGeyDDtjWgV8/edit?usp=sharing


I've made a publicly editable doc (separate from the main doc, because otherwise people could hypothetically come in and vandalize it) where you can feel free to enter data for other prospects, or for imaginary prospects (e.g. you can copy and paste stats for a prospect on the main doc, tweak them, and see what happens to the rating). If you enter data for a prospect I haven't added to the main doc yet, I will be incredibly grateful and copy it over to the main doc when I notice!

A couple notes:

-Age should be age on Jan. 1. Ratings are pretty sensitive to age, so use at least 1 decimal place. I just copied off ages from DX for now.

-Height should be barefoot height. When this isn't available I do listed height -1.5.

-You'll need to extrapolate full-season statistics as described above.

-You can find team pace data here: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2018-advanced-opponent-stats.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HseJseCuj-TJslK87jR37c44mgLLMqbxdbBHZNFZvV0/edit?usp=sharing
 
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Gaudy statline put up by Trae Young against TCU today: 43 points (15-27 from the field, 10-18 from three), 12 boards and seven assists (and on a negative note, nine TOs as well).
 
Sounds like Marvin Bagley had his best defensive game of the season. I'm weirdly coming around on him some I guess (though I'd probably have him around 6th or 7th right now lol)...I think it's more of just being underwhelmed with the top 7 or so besides Doncic and Young.
 
Sounds like Marvin Bagley had his best defensive game of the season. I'm weirdly coming around on him some I guess (though I'd probably have him around 6th or 7th right now lol)...I think it's more of just being underwhelmed with the top 7 or so besides Doncic and Young.

Out of curiousity, did you watch the game, and if so did he have a genuinely good defensive game (or just put up good box score stats)? I ask because he was by all accounts abysmal defensively against their loss to NC State in spite of tallying a steal and 4 blocks. I'd like him a lot more obviously if he showed some progress on defense, which isn't a tall task given where he started the year.
 
Out of curiousity, did you watch the game, and if so did he have a genuinely good defensive game (or just put up good box score stats)? I ask because he was by all accounts abysmal defensively against their loss to NC State in spite of tallying a steal and 4 blocks. I'd like him a lot more obviously if he showed some progress on defense, which isn't a tall task given where he started the year.

Did not watch, just what I heard on Twitter from people who would know. Hoping Frankie Vision has the full coverage up later, which while it doesn't really give a great indication of how they played defensively overall, it will at least show the steals/blocks and whether they were truly great defensive plays or ordinary plays anyone could make.
 
Rough finish from Bamba...has the rebound stripped away from him, then loses his balance and falls down, giving up the game winning layup. He's struggled with physicality from time to time, and while I'm hopeful that adding some more muscle to his frame will help, part of the problem seems to be in his head. He just doesn't embrace and seek out contact the way the best defensive players do.
 

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