2018 NBA Playoff Series Odds and Betting

shoes22 · Apr 15, 2018

Yes, I know I'm a couple days late in posting this. Truth be told I didn't know if I was even going to do this this year, because I have made zero updates to my game prediction model since last year's playoffs, as my focus has shifted to other areas. However, a few days ago I did feed it this year's data and ran it, mostly out of curiosity. The results are pretty interesting so I am deciding to post it. I promise that all of the projections below were made before the playoffs started, and as you can see below a couple of the projections are already off track. Overall though, the most notable thing off the bat is that there are no predicted sweeps this year, unlike prior years.

Also, every year I do this I want to add a new wrinkle to it, so this year I added a toggle-able button for each series, where you can sort the probability distribution by team (like previous years), or order each individual outcome in order from most likely to least likely. Three cheers for javascript!

I will post the updated projections for all 8 series sometime tomorrow morning after Game 1, and from then on I will post updated projections at the end of each day like normal.

Without further ado, here's what my model thinks about the Eastern Conference playoff series:

Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Washington Wizards (8)
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<ul class="team" id="ue1-1">
<li data-val="1">7. Raptors in 4: 8.18%</li>
<li data-val="2">3. Raptors in 5: 15.67%</li>
<li data-val="3">1. Raptors in 6: 17.29%</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Raptors in 7: 16.94%</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Wizards in 7: 13.86%</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Wizards in 6: 13.71%</li>
<li data-val="7">6. Wizards in 5: 9.68%</li>
<li data-val="8">8. Wizards in 4: 4.67%</li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button>
[/parsehtml]
Game 1 Odds:
Raptors win 55%/Wizards Win 45%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.15%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 61.81%
Odds series goes 7 games: 30.81%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.80

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 58.08% likely
Wizards win series: 41.92% likely

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-2">
<li data-val="1">8. Celtics in 4: 5.39%</li>
<li data-val="2">5. Celtics in 5: 12.68%</li>
<li data-val="3">4. Celtics in 6: 13.41%</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Celtics in 7: 16.95%</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Bucks in 7: 14.44%</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Bucks in 6: 18.06%</li>
<li data-val="7">6. Bucks in 5: 12.20%</li>
<li data-val="8">7. Bucks in 4: 6.87%</li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button>
[/parsehtml]
Game 1 Odds:
Celtics win 54%/Bucks Win 46%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.73%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 62.86%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.39%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 48.43% likely
Bucks win series: 51.57% likely

Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Miami Heat (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-3">
<li data-val="1">2. 76ers in 4: 24.21%</li>
<li data-val="2">1. 76ers in 5: 35.18%</li>
<li data-val="3">3. 76ers in 6: 17.47%</li>
<li data-val="4">4. 76ers in 7: 14.39%</li>
<li data-val="5">6. Heat in 7: 3.16%</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Heat in 6: 3.94%</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Heat in 5: 1.13%</li>
<li data-val="8">8. Heat in 4: 0.52%</li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button>
[/parsehtml]
Game 1 Odds:
76ers win 82%/Heat Win 18%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 75.28%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 38.97%
Odds series goes 7 games: 17.56%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.32

Overall Odds:
76ers win series: 91.25% likely
Heat win series: 8.75% likely

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Indiana Pacers (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-4">
<li data-val="1">4. Cavs in 4: 17.02%</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Cavs in 5: 29.39%</li>
<li data-val="3">2. Cavs in 6: 18.52%</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Cavs in 7: 17.96%</li>
<li data-val="5">6. Pacers in 7: 5.99%</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Pacers in 6: 7.19%</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Pacers in 5: 2.67%</li>
<li data-val="8">8. Pacers in 4: 1.26%</li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button>
[/parsehtml]
Game 1 Odds:
Cavs win 75%/Pacers Win 25%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 81.72%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 49.66%
Odds series goes 7 games: 23.94%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.55

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 82.89% likely
Pacers win series: 17.11% likely

And in the West...
Houston Rockets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-1">
<li data-val="1">2. Rockets in 4: 30.53%</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Rockets in 5: 37.10%</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Rockets in 6: 16.08%</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Rockets in 7: 11.08%</li>
<li data-val="5">6. Timberwolves in 7: 1.95%</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Timberwolves in 6: 2.36%</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Timberwolves in 5: 0.62%</li>
<li data-val="8">8. Timberwolves in 4: 0.28%</li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button>
[/parsehtml]
Game 1 Odds:
Rockets win 85%/Timberwolves Win 15%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 69.20%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 31.48%
Odds series goes 7 games: 13.04%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.14

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 94.79% likely
Timberwolves win series: 5.21% likely

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-2">
<li data-val="1">2. Warriors in 4: 27.31%</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Warriors in 5: 33.00%</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Warriors in 6: 18.77%</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Warriors in 7: 12.36%</li>
<li data-val="5">6. Spurs in 7: 3.49%</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Spurs in 6: 3.25%</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Spurs in 5: 1.29%</li>
<li data-val="8">8. Spurs in 4: 0.53%</li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button>
[/parsehtml]
Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 78%/Spurs Win 22%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 72.16%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 37.87%
Odds series goes 7 games: 15.85%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.26

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 91.44% likely
Spurs win series: 8.56% likely

Portland Trailblazers (3) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-3">
<li data-val="1">7. Trailblazers in 4: 6.07%</li>
<li data-val="2">4. Trailblazers in 5: 14.00%</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Trailblazers in 6: 14.17%</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Trailblazers in 7: 17.65%</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Pelicans in 7: 13.87%</li>
<li data-val="6">2. Pelicans in 6: 17.17%</li>
<li data-val="7">6. Pelicans in 5: 11.00%</li>
<li data-val="8">7. Pelicans in 4: 6.07%</li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button>
[/parsehtml]
Game 1 Odds:
Trailblazers win 56%/Pelicans Win 44%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.86%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 62.86%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.52%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82

Overall Odds:
Trailblazers win series: 51.89% likely
Pelicans win series: 48.11% likely

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-4">
<li data-val="1">7. Thunder in 4: 4.19%</li>
<li data-val="2">4. Thunder in 5: 15.14%</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Thunder in 6: 10.82%</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Thunder in 7: 22.30%</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Jazz in 7: 11.49%</li>
<li data-val="6">2. Jazz in 6: 21.61%</li>
<li data-val="7">6. Jazz in 5: 8.95%</li>
<li data-val="8">7. Jazz in 4: 5.50%</li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button>
[/parsehtml]
Game 1 Odds:
Thunder win 66%/Jazz Win 34%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 90.31%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 66.22%
Odds series goes 7 games: 33.79%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.90

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 52.45% likely
Jazz win series: 47.55% likely

As always, thoughts, opinions, and general banter is always welcome!

Cratylus · Apr 15, 2018

Only problem I see with your percentages is that you failed to account for the "Ty Lue factor" in your Cavs algorithm. I believe that swings the odds in Indiana's favor to win the series.

shoes22 · Apr 18, 2018

Cratylus said:
Only problem I see with your percentages is that you failed to account for the "Ty Lue factor" in your Cavs algorithm. I believe that swings the odds in Indiana's favor to win the series.

Oh it's being accounted for...especially if the Cavs lose game 2. It's not going to be pretty if that happens. My model usually course corrects pretty well if it can establish a pattern in multiple games.

Anyway I was without power most of the last two days so I didn't get a chance to post all the Game 1 updates. Thankfully as of right now I am all caught up and current. There should be no more issues going forward. Game 1 results will be in this post, Game 2 in the next one. Here's what it looks like:

Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Washington Wizards (8)
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<ul class="team" id="ue1-1-1">
<li data-val="1">4. Raptors in 4: 14.88% (+6.7%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Raptors in 5: 21.79% (+6.12%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. Raptors in 6: 19.32% (+2.03%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Raptors in 7: 15.96% (-0.98%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Wizards in 7: 13.06% (-0.8%)</li>
<li data-val="6">6. Wizards in 6: 10.33% (-3.38%)</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Wizards in 5: 4.67% (-5.01%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Wizards in 4: 0.00%</s> (-4.67%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-1-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 2 Odds:
Raptors win 55%/Wizards Win 45%

Odds Washington forces Game 5: 85.13% (-2.02%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 58.67% (-3.14%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 29.02% (-1.79%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.73 (-0.07)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 71.95% likely (+13.87%)
Wizards win series: 28.05% likely (-13.87%)

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-2-1">
<li data-val="1">6. Celtics in 4: 9.35% (+3.96%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Celtics in 5: 18.08% (+5.4%)</li>
<li data-val="3">4. Celtics in 6: 15.80% (+2.39%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Celtics in 7: 17.69% (+0.74%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Bucks in 7: 15.69% (+1.25%)</li>
<li data-val="6">3. Bucks in 6: 15.96% (-2.1%)</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Bucks in 5: 7.43% (-4.77%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Bucks in 4: 0.00%</s> (-6.87%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-2-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 2 Odds:
Celtics win 53%/Bucks Win 47%

Odds Milwaukee forces Game 5: 90.65% (+2.92%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 65.14% (+2.28%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 33.38% (+1.99%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.89 (+0.07)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 60.92% likely (+12.49%)
Bucks win series: 39.08% likely (-12.49%)

Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Miami Heat (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-3-1">
<li data-val="1">2. 76ers in 4: 31.91% (+7.7%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. 76ers in 5: 37.88% (+2.7%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. 76ers in 6: 15.1% (-2.37%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. 76ers in 7: 10.48% (-3.91%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Heat in 7: 2.15% (-1.01%)</li>
<li data-val="6">6. Heat in 6: 2.06% (-1.88%)</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Heat in 5: 0.42% (-0.71%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Heat in 4: 0.00%</s> (-0.52%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-3-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 2 Odds:
76ers win 83%/Heat Win 17%

Odds Miami forces Game 5: 68.09% (-7.19%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 29.79% (-9.18%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 12.63% (-4.93%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.11 (-0.21)

Overall Odds:
76ers win series: 95.37% likely (+4.12%)
Heat win series: 4.63% likely (-4.12%)

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Indiana Pacers (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-4-1">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s> (-17.02%)</li>
<li data-val="2">4. Cavs in 5: 11.9% (-17.49%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Cavs in 6: 17.25% (-1.27%)</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Cavs in 7: 24.22% (+6.26%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Pacers in 7: 10.88% (+4.89%)</li>
<li data-val="6">2. Pacers in 6: 17.85% (+10.66%)</li>
<li data-val="7">6. Pacers in 5: 10.15% (+7.48%)</li>
<li data-val="8">7. Pacers in 4: 7.75% (+6.49%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-4-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 2 Odds:
Cavs win 69%/Pacers Win 31%

Odds Cleveland forces Game 5: 92.25% (+10.53%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 70.2% (+20.54%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 35.10% (+11.16%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.98 (+0.43)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 53.37% likely (-29.52%)
Pacers win series: 46.63% likely (+29.52%)

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-1-1">
<li data-val="1">2. Rockets in 4: 35.91% (+5.38%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Rockets in 5: 38.26% (+1.16%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Rockets in 6: 13.91% (-2.17%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Rockets in 7: 8.66% (-2.42%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Timberwolves in 7: 1.53%(-0.42%)</li>
<li data-val="6">6. Timberwolves in 6: 1.45% (-0.91%)</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Timberwolves in 5: 0.28% (-0.34%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Timberwolves in 4: 0.0%</s> (-0.28%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-1-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 2 Odds:
Rockets win 85%/Timberwolves Win 15%

Odds Houston forces 5: 64.09% (-5.11%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 25.55% (-5.93%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 10.19% (-2.85%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.00 (-0.14)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 96.74% likely (+1.95%)
Timberwolves win series: 3.26% likely (-1.95%)

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-2-1">
<li data-val="1">1. Warriors in 4: 39.2% (+11.89%)</li>
<li data-val="2">2. Warriors in 5: 34.72% (+1.72%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Warriors in 6: 14.81% (-3.96%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Warriors in 7: 7.63% (-4.73%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Spurs in 7: 1.91% (-1.58%)</li>
<li data-val="6">6. Spurs in 6: 1.37% (-1.88%)</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Spurs in 5: 0.36% (-0.93%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Spurs in 4: 0.0%</s> (-0.53%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-2-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 80%/Spurs Win 20%

Odds San Antonio forces Game 5: 60.8% (-11.36%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 25.72% (-12.15%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 9.54% (-6.31%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.96 (-0.3)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 96.36% likely (+4.92%)
Spurs win series: 3.64% likely (-4.92%)

Portland Trailblazers (3) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-3-1">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Trailblazers in 4: 0.00%</s> (-6.07%)</li>
<li data-val="2">7. Trailblazers in 5: 4.77% (-9.23%)</li>
<li data-val="3">6. Trailblazers in 6: 9.23% (-4.94%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Trailblazers in 7: 14.81% (-2.84%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Pelicans in 7: 13.67% (-0.2%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Pelicans in 6: 21.74% (+4.57%)</li>
<li data-val="7">2. Pelicans in 5: 19.62% (+8.62%)</li>
<li data-val="8">3. Pelicans in 4: 16.15% (+10.08%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-3-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 2 Odds:
Trailblazers win 52%/Pelicans Win 48%

Odds Portland forces a Game 5: 83.85% (-4.01%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 59.46% (-3.4%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 28.49% (-3.03%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.72 (-0.1)

Overall Odds:
Trailblazers win series: 28.82% likely (-23.07%)
Pelicans win series: 71.18% likely (+23.07%)

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-4-1">
<li data-val="1">6. Thunder in 4: 7.08% (+2.89%)</li>
<li data-val="2">2. Thunder in 5: 21.16% (+6.02%)</li>
<li data-val="3">4. Thunder in 6: 13.34% (+2.52%)</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Thunder in 7: 23.15% (+0.85%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Jazz in 7: 12.46% (+0.97%)</li>
<li data-val="6">3. Jazz in 6: 17.31% (-4.3%)</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Jazz in 5: 5.50% (-3.45%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Jazz in 4: 0.0%</s> (-5.5%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-4-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 2 Odds:
Thunder win 65%/Jazz Win 35%

Odds Utah forces Game 5: 92.92% (+2.61%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 66.26% (+0.04%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 35.61% (+1.82%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.95 (+0.05)

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 64.72% likely (+12.27%)
Jazz win series: 35.28% likely (-12.27%)

shoes22 · Apr 18, 2018

And after yesterday's games...

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para = document.querySelectorAll('#u' + test.id + ' li');
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test.textContent = 'Sort by Team';
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test.textContent = 'Sort by Probability';
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[/parsehtml]Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Miami Heat (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-3-2">
<li data-val="1"><s>7. 76ers in 4: 0.0%</s> (-31.91%)</li>
<li data-val="2">3. 76ers in 5: 24.77% (-13.11%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. 76ers in 6: 25.49% (-10.39%)</li>
<li data-val="4">1. 76ers in 7: 27.17% (+16.69%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Heat in 7: 7.22% (+5.07%)</li>
<li data-val="6">4. Heat in 6: 11.28% (+9.22%)</li>
<li data-val="7">6. Heat in 5: 4.07% (+3.65%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Heat in 4: 0.00%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-3-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
76ers win 56%/Heat Win 44%

Odds series goes at least 6 games: 71.16% (+41.37%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 34.39% (+21.76%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.05 (+0.94)

Overall Odds:
76ers win series: 77.43% likely (-17.94%)
Heat win series: 22.57% likely (+17.94%)

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-2-2">
<li data-val="1">1. Warriors in 4: 51.84% (+12.64%)</li>
<li data-val="2">2. Warriors in 5: 33.06% (-1.66%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Warriors in 6: 9.85% (-4.96%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Warriors in 7: 3.98% (-3.65%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Spurs in 7: 0.87% (-1.04%)</li>
<li data-val="6">6. Spurs in 6: 0.40% (-0.97%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Spurs in 5: 0.0%</s> (-0.36%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Spurs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-2-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 72%/Spurs Win 28%

Odds San Antonio forces Game 5: 48.16% (-12.64%)
Odds San Antonio forces Game 6: 15.10% (-10.62%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 4.85% (-4.69%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.68 (-0.28)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 98.73% likely (+2.37%)
Spurs win series: 1.27% likely (-2.37%)

Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Washington Wizards (8)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-1-2">
<li data-val="1">2. Raptors in 4: 28.09% (+13.21%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Raptors in 5: 28.40% (+6.61%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Raptors in 6: 18.03% (-1.29%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Raptors in 7: 11.98% (-3.98%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Wizards in 7: 9.04% (-4.02%)</li>
<li data-val="6">6. Wizards in 6: 4.46% (-5.87%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Wizards in 5: 0.0%</s> (-4.67%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Wizards in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-1-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
Raptors win 53%/Wizards Win 47%

Odds Washington forces Game 5: 71.91% (-13.22%)
Odds Washington forces Game 6: 43.51% (-15.16%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 21.02% (-8%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.36 (-0.37)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 86.5% likely (+14.55%)
Wizards win series: 13.5% likely (-14.55%)

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-2-2">
<li data-val="1">2. Celtics in 4: 18.49% (+9.14%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Celtics in 5: 26.47% (+8.39%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Celtics in 6: 17.24% (+1.44%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Celtics in 7: 15.81% (-1.88%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Bucks in 7: 13.47% (-2.22%)</li>
<li data-val="6">6. Bucks in 6: 8.52% (-7.44%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Bucks in 5: 0.0%</s> (-7.43%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Bucks in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-2-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
Celtics win 43%/Bucks Win 57%

Odds Milwaukee forces Game 5: 81.51% (-9.14%)
Odds Milwaukee forces Game 6: 55.04% (-10.1%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 29.28% (-4.1%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.66 (-0.23)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 78.01% likely (+17.09%)
Bucks win series: 21.99% likely (-17.09%)

Portland Trailblazers (3) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-3-2">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>7. Trailblazers in 5: 0.0%</s> (-4.77%)</li>
<li data-val="3">6. Trailblazers in 6: 2.97% (-6.26%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Trailblazers in 7: 8.44% (-6.37%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Pelicans in 7: 8.44% (-5.23%)</li>
<li data-val="6">3. Pelicans in 6: 19.15% (-2.59%)</li>
<li data-val="7">2. Pelicans in 5: 23.79% (+4.17%)</li>
<li data-val="8">1. Pelicans in 4: 37.21% (+21.06%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-3-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
Trailblazers win 39%/Pelicans Win 61%

Odds Portland forces a Game 5: 62.79% (-21.06%)
Odds Portland forces a Game 6: 39.00% (-20.46%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 16.88% (-11.61%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.19 (-0.53)

Overall Odds:
Trailblazers win series: 11.41% likely (-17.41%)
Pelicans win series: 88.59% likely (+17.41%)

Cratylus · Apr 18, 2018

shoes22 said:
Oh it's being accounted for...

shoes22 · Apr 19, 2018

Here's how we look after last night's Game 2's! No real surprises here besides Thunder/Jazz, where the projection flip flopped. As far as the Cavs/Pacers series...Game 3 is a complete toss-up.

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test.textContent = 'Sort by Team';
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test.textContent = 'Sort by Probability';
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[/parsehtml]
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Indiana Pacers (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-4-2">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2">3. Cavs in 5: 17.5% (+5.6%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. Cavs in 6: 21.25% (+4%)</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Cavs in 7: 26.25% (+2.03%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Pacers in 7: 11.25% (+0.37%)</li>
<li data-val="6">4. Pacers in 6: 16.25% (-1.6%)</li>
<li data-val="7">6. Pacers in 5: 7.5% (-2.65%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Pacers in 4: 0.0%</s> (-7.75%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-4-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
Cavs win 50%/Pacers Win 50%

Odds series goes at least 6 games: 75% (+4.8%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 37.5% (+2.4%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.12 (+0.14)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 65% likely (+11.63%)
Pacers win series: 35% likely (-11.63%)

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-4-2">
<li data-val="1"><s>7. Thunder in 4: 0.0%</s> (-7.08%)</li>
<li data-val="2">6. Thunder in 5: 5.58% (-15.58%)</li>
<li data-val="3">5. Thunder in 6: 8.84% (-4.5%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Thunder in 7: 21.4% (-1.75%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Jazz in 7: 13.12% (+0.66%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Jazz in 6: 32.44% (+15.13%)</li>
<li data-val="7">3. Jazz in 5: 18.62% (+13.12%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Jazz in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-4-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
Thunder win 30%/Jazz Win 70%

Odds series goes at least 6 games: 75.8% (+9.54%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 34.52% (-1.09%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.10 (+0.15)

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 35.82% likely (-28.9%)
Jazz win series: 64.18% likely (+28.9%)

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-1-2">
<li data-val="1">1. Rockets in 4: 43.56% (+7.65%)</li>
<li data-val="2">2. Rockets in 5: 38.60% (+0.34%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Rockets in 6: 10.71% (-3.2%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Rockets in 7: 5.66% (-3%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Timberwolves in 7: 0.92% (-0.61%)</li>
<li data-val="6">6. Timberwolves in 6: 0.55% (-0.9%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Timberwolves in 5: 0.0%</s> (-0.28%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Timberwolves in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-1-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
Rockets win 66%/Timberwolves Win 34%

Odds Minnesota forces Game 5: 56.44% (-7.65%)
Odds Minnesota forces Game 6: 17.84% (-7.71%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 6.58% (-3.61%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.81 (-0.19)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 98.53% likely (+1.79%)
Timberwolves win series: 1.47% likely (-1.79%)

shoes22 · Apr 20, 2018

3 games, 3 expected outcomes. No surprises last night!

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[/parsehtml]Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Miami Heat (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-3-3">
<li data-val="1"><s>7. 76ers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2">1. 76ers in 5: 48.6% (+23.83%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. 76ers in 6: 26.28% (+0.79%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. 76ers in 7: 17.88% (-9.29%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Heat in 7: 4.19% (-3.03%)</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Heat in 6: 3.04% (-8.24%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>6. Heat in 5: 0.0%</s> (-4.07%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Heat in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-3-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 4 Odds:
76ers win 60%/Heat Win 40%

Odds Miami forces Game 6: 51.4% (-19.76%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 22.08% (-12.31%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.73 (-0.32)

Overall Odds:
76ers win series: 92.76% likely (+15.33%)
Heat win series: 7.24% likely (-15.33%)

Portland Trailblazers (3) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-3-3">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Trailblazers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>7. Trailblazers in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><s>6. Trailblazers in 6: 0.0%</s> (-2.97%)</li>
<li data-val="4">5. Trailblazers in 7: 2.99% (-5.45%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Pelicans in 7: 3.23% (-5.21%)</li>
<li data-val="6">3. Pelicans in 6: 11.06% (-8.09%)</li>
<li data-val="7">2. Pelicans in 5: 18.72% (-5.07%)</li>
<li data-val="8">1. Pelicans in 4: 64% (+26.79%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-3-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Portland forces Game 5: 36% (-26.79%)
Odds Portland forces Game 6: 17.28% (-21.72%)
Odds Portland forces Game 7: 6.22% (-10.66%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.59 (-0.6)

Overall Odds:
Trailblazers win series: 2.99% likely (-8.42%)
Pelicans win series: 97.01% likely (+8.42%)

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-2-3">
<li data-val="1">1. Warriors in 4: 77% (+25.16%)</li>
<li data-val="2">2. Warriors in 5: 19.55% (-13.51%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Warriors in 6: 2.66% (-7.19%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Warriors in 7: 0.67% (-3.31%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Spurs in 7: 0.12% (-0.75%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>6. Spurs in 6: 0.0%</s> (-0.40%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Spurs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Spurs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-2-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 72%/Spurs Win 28%

Odds San Antonio forces Game 5: 23% (-25.16%)
Odds San Antonio forces Game 6: 3.45% (-11.65%)
Odds San Antonio forces Game 7: 0.79% (-4.06%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.27 (-0.41)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.88% likely (+1.15%)
Spurs win series: 0.12% likely (-1.15%)

shoes22 · Apr 21, 2018

Yesterday's results below. Good call on making the Cavs-Pacers Game 3 a toss-up...very similar projection for Game 4. A lot of these East series have tightened up for the lower seed home games.

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[/parsehtml]
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Indiana Pacers (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-4-3">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s> (-17.5%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Cavs in 6: 16.57% (-4.68%)</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Cavs in 7: 28.93% (+2.68%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Pacers in 7: 13% (+1.75%)</li>
<li data-val="6">2. Pacers in 6: 25.69% (+9.44%)</li>
<li data-val="7">4. Pacers in 5: 15.81% (+8.31%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Pacers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-4-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 4 Odds:
Cavs win 49%/Pacers Win 51%

Odds Cleveland forces Game 6: 84.19% (+9.19%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 41.93% (+4.43%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.26 (+0.14)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 45.5% likely (-19.5%)
Pacers win series: 54.5% likely (+19.5%)

Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Washington Wizards (8)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-1-3">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Raptors in 4: 0.0%</s> (-28.09%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Raptors in 5: 24.91% (-3.49%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. Raptors in 6: 23.58% (+5.55%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Raptors in 7: 20.3% (+8.32%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Wizards in 7: 18% (+8.96%)</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Wizards in 6: 13.2% (+8.74%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Wizards in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Wizards in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-1-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 4 Odds:
Raptors win 47%/Wizards Win 53%

Odds Washington forces Game 6: 75.09% (+31.58%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 38.3% (+17.28%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.13 (+0.77)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 68.8% likely (-17.7%)
Wizards win series: 31.2% likely (+17.7%)

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-2-3">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Celtics in 4: 0.0%</s> (-18.49%)</li>
<li data-val="2">2. Celtics in 5: 21.73% (-4.74%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Celtics in 6: 20.72% (+3.48%)</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Celtics in 7: 21.83% (+6.02%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Bucks in 7: 19.36% (+5.89%)</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Bucks in 6: 16.36% (+7.84%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Bucks in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Bucks in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-2-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 4 Odds:
Celtics win 41%/Bucks Win 59%

Odds Milwaukee forces Game 6: 78.27% (+23.23%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 41.19% (+11.91%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.19 (+0.53)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 64.28% likely (-13.73%)
Bucks win series: 35.72% likely (+13.73%)

shoes22 · Apr 22, 2018

Results of Saturday's games below! No surprises except the Rockets dropping Game 3 to the T-Wolves, which barely made a dent in the projections.

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[/parsehtml]
Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Miami Heat (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-3-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>7. 76ers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2">1. 76ers in 5: 82% (+33.4%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. 76ers in 6: 10.98% (-15.3%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. 76ers in 7: 5.76% (-12.12%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Heat in 7: 1.26% (-2.93%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>5. Heat in 6: 0.0%</s> (-3.04%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>6. Heat in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Heat in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-3-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Odds Miami forces Game 6: 18% (-33.4%)
Odds Miami forces Game 7: 7.02% (-15.06%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.25 (-0.48)

Overall Odds:
76ers win series: 98.74% likely (+5.98%)
Heat win series: 1.26% likely (-5.98%)

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-1-3">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s> (-43.56%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Rockets in 5: 50.02% (+11.42%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. Rockets in 6: 26.21% (+15.5%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Rockets in 7: 17.25% (+11.59%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Timberwolves in 7: 3.79% (+2.87%)</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Timberwolves in 6: 2.74% (+2.19%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Timberwolves in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Timberwolves in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-1-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 4 Odds:
Rockets win 61%/Timberwolves Win 39%

Odds Minnesota forces Game 6: 49.98% (+32.14%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 21.04% (+14.46%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.71 (+0.9)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 93.48% likely (-5.05%)
Timberwolves win series: 6.52% likely (+5.05%)

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-4-3">
<li data-val="1"><s>7. Thunder in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Thunder in 5: 0.0%</s> (-5.58%)</li>
<li data-val="3">5. Thunder in 6: 4.70% (-4.14%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Thunder in 7: 16.40% (-5%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Jazz in 7: 10.93% (-2.19%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Jazz in 6: 39.17% (+6.73%)</li>
<li data-val="7">2. Jazz in 5: 28.8% (+10.18%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Jazz in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-4-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 4 Odds:
Thunder win 28%/Jazz Win 72%

Odds Oklahoma City forces Game 6: 71.2% (-4.6%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 27.33% (-7.19%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.98 (-0.12)

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 21.1% likely (-14.72%)
Jazz win series: 78.9% likely (+14.72%)

shoes22 · Apr 23, 2018

What a crazy couple games. As far as the individual game 4s, nothing too out of the ordinary happened besides the Warriors dropping one to San Antonio, and yet in all of these series the projections moved around pretty significantly.

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test.textContent = 'Sort by Probability';
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[/parsehtml]
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-2-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Celtics in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>5. Celtics in 5: 0.0%</s> (-21.73%)</li>
<li data-val="3">4. Celtics in 6: 20.28% (-0.44%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Celtics in 7: 26.23% (+4.4%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Bucks in 7: 24.21% (+4.85%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Bucks in 6: 29.28% (+12.92%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Bucks in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Bucks in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-2-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 5 Odds:
Celtics win 52%/Bucks Win 48%

Odds series goes 7 games: 50.44% (+9.25%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.50 (+0.31)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 46.51% likely (-17.77%)
Bucks win series: 53.49% likely (+17.77%)

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. San Antonio Spurs (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-2-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>5. Warriors in 4: 0.0%</s> (-77%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Warriors in 5: 83% (+63.45%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. Warriors in 6: 12.41% (+9.75%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Warriors in 7: 3.81% (+3.14%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Spurs in 7: 0.78% (+0.66%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>6. Spurs in 6: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Spurs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Spurs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-2-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds San Antonio forces Game 6: 17% (+13.55%)
Odds San Antonio forces Game 7: 4.59% (+3.8%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.22 (+0.95)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.22% likely (-0.66%)
Spurs win series: 0.78% likely (+0.66%)

Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Washington Wizards (8)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-1-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Raptors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>5. Raptors in 5: 0.0%</s> (-24.91%)</li>
<li data-val="3">4. Raptors in 6: 23.32% (-0.26%)</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Raptors in 7: 26.69% (+6.39%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Wizards in 7: 23.67% (+5.67%)</li>
<li data-val="6">2. Wizards in 6: 26.32% (+13.12%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Wizards in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Wizards in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-1-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 5 Odds:
Raptors win 53%/Wizards Win 47%

Odds series goes 7 games: 50.36% (+12.06%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.50 (+0.37)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 50.01% likely (-18.79%)
Wizards win series: 49.99% likely (+18.79%)

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Indiana Pacers (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-4-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3">1. Cavs in 6: 36.21% (+19.64%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Cavs in 7: 35.20% (+6.27%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Pacers in 7: 14.38% (+1.38%)</li>
<li data-val="6">4. Pacers in 6: 14.21% (-11.48%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>5. Pacers in 5: 0.0%</s> (-15.81%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Pacers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-4-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 5 Odds:
Cavs win 71%/Pacers Win 29%

Odds series goes 7 games: 49.58% (+7.65%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.50 (+0.24)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 71.41% likely (+25.91%)
Pacers win series: 28.59% likely (-25.91%)

shoes22 · Apr 24, 2018

Prediction model nailed it last night!! As a result, no change in the projections for either series.

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[/parsehtml]
Houston Rockets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-1-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2">1. Rockets in 5: 84% (+33.98%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. Rockets in 6: 10.24% (-15.97%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Rockets in 7: 4.84% (-12.41%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Timberwolves in 7: 0.92% (-2.87%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>5. Timberwolves in 6: 0.0%</s> (-2.74%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Timberwolves in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Timberwolves in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-1-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Minnesota forces Game 6: 16% (-33.98%)
Odds Minnesota forces Game 7: 5.76% (-15.28%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.22 (-0.49)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 99.08% likely (+5.6%)
Timberwolves win series: 0.92% likely (-5.6%)

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-4-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>7. Thunder in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Thunder in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><s>5. Thunder in 6: 0.0%</s> (-4.7%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Thunder in 7: 9.08% (-7.32%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Jazz in 7: 6.58% (-4.35%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Jazz in 6: 42.34% (+3.17%)</li>
<li data-val="7">2. Jazz in 5: 42% (+13.2%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Jazz in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-4-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Oklahoma City forces Game 6: 58% (-13.2%)
Odds Oklahoma City forces Game 7: 15.66% (-11.67%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.74 (-0.24)

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 9.08% likely (-12.02%)
Jazz win series: 90.92% likely (+12.02%)

shoes22 · Apr 25, 2018

Another 3/3 night last night! Here's Celtics-Bucks Game 6:

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[/parsehtml]
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-2-5">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Celtics in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>5. Celtics in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3">1. Celtics in 6: 41% (+20.72%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Celtics in 7: 31.27% (+5.04%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Bucks in 7: 27.73% (+3.52%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>4. Bucks in 6: 0.0%</s> (-29.28%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Bucks in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Bucks in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-2-5" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Milwaukee forces Game 7: 59% (+8.56%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.59 (+0.09)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 72.27% likely (+25.76%)
Bucks win series: 27.73% likely (-25.76%)

shoes22 · Apr 26, 2018

Remarkably, the winner in all 4 games last night was the team my model favored to win. The streak continues!

Quick note on elimination games in the distribution table, because it's easy to get confused by this. Using the Raptors-Wizards series below since it's a great example...the Raptors are NOT favored to win Game 6. They are slight underdogs in that game at 45/55, and yet "Raptors in 6" is the most likely individual outcome, because either team winning in 7 is dependent on the 55% probability the Wizards win Game 6 first.

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<script>
function myFunction(test) {
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if (div.className == 'team'){
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[/parsehtml]

Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Washington Wizards (8)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-1-5">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Raptors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>5. Raptors in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3">1. Raptors in 6: 45% (+21.68%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Raptors in 7: 29.7% (+3.01%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Wizards in 7: 25.3% (+1.63%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>4. Wizards in 6: 0.0%</s> (-26.32%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Wizards in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Wizards in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-1-5" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Washington forces Game 7: 55% (+4.64%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.55 (+0.05)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 74.7% likely (+24.69%)
Wizards win series: 25.3% likely (-24.69%)

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Indiana Pacers (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-4-5">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3">1. Cavs in 6: 52% (+15.79%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Cavs in 7: 34.56% (-0.64%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Pacers in 7: 13.44% (-0.94%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>4. Pacers in 6: 0.0%</s> (-14.21%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>5. Pacers in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Pacers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-4-5" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Indiana forces Game 7: 48% (-1.58%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.48 (-0.02)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 86.56% likely (+15.15%)
Pacers win series: 13.44% likely (-15.15%)

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-4-5">
<li data-val="1"><s>7. Thunder in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Thunder in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><s>5. Thunder in 6: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="4">2. Thunder in 7: 16.8% (+7.72%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Jazz in 7: 11.2% (+4.62%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Jazz in 6: 72% (+29.66%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>4. Jazz in 5: 0.0%</s> (-42%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Jazz in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-4-5" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Oklahoma City forces Game 7: 28% (+12.34%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.28 (+0.54)

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 16.8% likely (+7.72%)
Jazz win series: 83.2% likely (-7.72%)

czvo · Apr 26, 2018

shoes22 said:
Remarkably, the winner in all 4 games last night was the team my model favored to win. The streak continues!

Quick note on elimination games in the distribution table, because it's easy to get confused by this. Using the Raptors-Wizards series below since it's a great example...the Raptors are NOT favored to win Game 6. They are slight underdogs in that game at 45/55, and yet "Raptors in 6" is the most likely individual outcome, because either team winning in 7 is dependent on the 55% probability the Wizards win Game 6 first.

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padding: 0;
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color: #ff0000;
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.p1 {
color: #0059b3;
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.p2 {
color: #00b300;
}
li {
list-style: none !important;
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</style>
<script>
function myFunction(test) {
var div = document.querySelector('#u' + test.id),
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if (div.className == 'team'){
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[/parsehtml]
Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Washington Wizards (8)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-1-5">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Raptors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>5. Raptors in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3">1. Raptors in 6: 45% (+21.68%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Raptors in 7: 29.7% (+3.01%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Wizards in 7: 25.3% (+1.63%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>4. Wizards in 6: 0.0%</s> (-26.32%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Wizards in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Wizards in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-1-5" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Odds Washington forces Game 7: 55% (+4.64%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.55 (+0.05)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 74.7% likely (+24.69%)
Wizards win series: 25.3% likely (-24.69%)

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Indiana Pacers (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-4-5">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3">1. Cavs in 6: 52% (+15.79%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Cavs in 7: 34.56% (-0.64%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Pacers in 7: 13.44% (-0.94%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>4. Pacers in 6: 0.0%</s> (-14.21%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>5. Pacers in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Pacers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-4-5" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Odds Indiana forces Game 7: 48% (-1.58%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.48 (-0.02)

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 86.56% likely (+15.15%)
Pacers win series: 13.44% likely (-15.15%)

Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw1-4-5">
<li data-val="1"><s>7. Thunder in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Thunder in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><s>5. Thunder in 6: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="4">2. Thunder in 7: 16.8% (+7.72%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Jazz in 7: 11.2% (+4.62%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Jazz in 6: 72% (+29.66%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>4. Jazz in 5: 0.0%</s> (-42%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Jazz in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w1-4-5" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Odds Oklahoma City forces Game 7: 28% (+12.34%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.28 (+0.54)

Overall Odds:
Thunder win series: 16.8% likely (+7.72%)
Jazz win series: 83.2% likely (-7.72%)

Is it? All four winners were the higher seeds playing at home. What are the odds all four win?

shoes22 · Apr 28, 2018

czvo said:
Is it? All four winners were the higher seeds playing at home. What are the odds all four win?

Excellent question! From the numbers my model used for those 4 specific games and some quick math, the odds that all 4 of those teams together won Game 5 was around 27%. So you are right cvzo, even though going 4/4 on the day was unlikely, 27% is still relatively high.

With that said, my model finally ended its winning streak last night, going 1/3 on last night's games...the only game it predicted correctly was Thunder-Jazz. (Although I will say, the Game 6 Raptors-Wizards odds were calculated before it was known Porter wouldn't play. With that taken into account, in all likelihood it would have projected a Raptors win. But it's too late for that now.)

Moving on to today's slate of games, there's another anomaly...my model doesn't even have a prediction for Celts-Bucks Game 7. The numbers canceled each other out and it ended up a toss-up. That rarely happens, and yet it's the second time that's happened this postseason. What a weird year all around.

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list-style: none !important;
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test.textContent = 'Sort by Probability';
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return false;
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[/parsehtml]
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (7)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-2-6">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Celtics in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>5. Celtics in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><s>3. Celtics in 6: 0.0%</s> (-41%)</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Celtics in 7: 50% (+18.73%)</li>
<li data-val="5">1. Bucks in 7: 50% (+22.27%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>4. Bucks in 6: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Bucks in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Bucks in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-2-6" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 50% likely (-22.27%)
Bucks win series: 50% likely (+22.27%)

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Indiana Pacers (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue1-4-6">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><s>3. Cavs in 6: 0.0%</s> (-52%)</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Cavs in 7: 67% (+32.44%)</li>
<li data-val="5">2. Pacers in 7: 33% (+19.56%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>4. Pacers in 6: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>5. Pacers in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Pacers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e1-4-6" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 67% likely (-19.56%)
Pacers win series: 33% likely (+19.56%)

And here's the first series of Round 2!

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw2-2">
<li data-val="1">7. Warriors in 4: 5.99%</li>
<li data-val="2">2. Warriors in 5: 18.32%</li>
<li data-val="3">4. Warriors in 6: 12.97%</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Warriors in 7: 22.60%</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Pelicans in 7: 10.63%</li>
<li data-val="6">3. Pelicans in 6: 18.07%</li>
<li data-val="7">6. Pelicans in 5: 7.21%</li>
<li data-val="8">8. Pelicans in 4: 4.19%</li>
</ul>
<button id="w2-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 68%/Pelicans Win 32%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 89.81%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 64.27%
Odds series goes 7 games: 33.23%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.87

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 59.89% likely
Pelicans win series: 40.11% likely

2018 NBA Playoff Series Odds and Betting

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