2018 Tribe starting pitching discussion

[Derek]

Kluber
13-6
8.63 K/9
1.18 BB/9
2.79 ERA
3.45 FIP
3.21 xFIP
3.1 fWAR
4.2 bWAR

Carrasco
13-5
10.10 K/9
1.90 BB/9
3.66 ERA
3.26 FIP
3.20 xFIP
2.4 fWAR (prior to 8/1)
1.8 bWAR (prior to 8/1)

Bauer
10-6
11.42 K/9
3.10 BB/9
2.34 ERA
2.43 FIP
3.19 xFIP
5.3 fWAR
5.1 bWAR

Clevinger
7-7
8.96 K/9
3.03 BB/9
3.43 ERA
3.30 FIP
3.93 xFIP
3.1 fWAR
3.2 bWAR

Bieber
5-2
8.94 K/9
1.75 BB/9
4.73 ERA
3.40 FIP
3.60 xFIP
1.1 fWAR
0.4 bWAR



Unit rankings
5th in K/9
3rd lowest BB/9
4th in ERA
3rd in FIP
3rd in xFIP
2nd in fWAR

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

The only thing I'm concerned about is getting Kluber right come playoff time.

I'm excited to go four-deep with Clevinger as our fourth, and Bieber moving into the pen. Having our bullpen strong to bail these guys out should make us scary.

Honestly, people talk about us like it's a down year and we can't hang with the best teams in baseball, but our offense is better than it's ever been, we can throw out four legit starters so we don't have guys going on short rest, and our bullpen could be the best it's been. This team might be the most dangerous playoff team we've seen in this era of Indians baseball.

 

[Derek]

The only thing I'm concerned about is getting Kluber right come playoff time.

I'm excited to go four-deep with Clevinger as our fourth, and Bieber moving into the pen. Having our bullpen strong to bail these guys out should make us scary.

Honestly, people talk about us like it's a down year and we can't hang with the best teams in baseball, but our offense is better than it's ever been, we can throw out four legit starters so we don't have guys going on short rest, and our bullpen could be the best it's been. This team might be the most dangerous playoff team we've seen in this era of Indians baseball.

I'm with you. Lineup and rotation wise, I think this is the best team we've fielded during our current run. The bullpen has cost us at least 6-8 games to date that they would not have with Hand/Cimber/Perez and a healthy Miller.

I'm sure everybody would be a lot more positive about this team if they were 65-42 instead of 59-48, and that's just a 6 win difference. A healthy Miller would have made that difference alone.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I'm with you. Lineup and rotation wise, I think this is the best team we've fielded during our current run. The bullpen has cost us at least 6-8 games to date that they would not have with Hand/Cimber/Perez and a healthy Miller.

I'm sure everybody would be a lot more positive about this team if they were 65-42 instead of 59-48, and that's just a 6 win difference. A healthy Miller would have made that difference alone.

To be fair, I'm worried about Miller coming back 100%, and I'm worried about Kluber finding his groove. I'm counting on both of those happening plus us staying healthy. Nothing is a given.

 

[Derek]

To be fair, I'm worried about Miller coming back 100%, and I'm worried about Kluber finding his groove. I'm counting on both of those happening plus us staying healthy. Nothing is a given.

The Pittsburg game was rough, but Kluber has actually had his highest and second highest percentage of swinging strikes in two of his last three starts.

That was my big concern with him early, that he wasn't inducing nearly as many whiffs as year's past, so I have been happy to see that. I think it points to him getting back to his dominant self.

 

[MGMT]

Good threads.

So, am I overreacting in being very impressed by Bieber last night — at least in certain moments? He seemed to cause a good blend of swinging/looking strikeouts — between his movement and command.

I’ve already said this but I think he’s bound to put together another elite outing this season a la 7/8 IP, 0 ER 9/10K or something to that effect.

 

[Derek]

Good threads.

So, am I overreacting in being very impressed by Bieber last night — at least in certain moments? He seemed to cause a good blend of swinging/looking strikeouts — between his movement and command.

I’ve already said this but I think he’s bound to put together another elite outing this season a la 7/8 IP, 0 ER 9/10K or something to that effect.

You mean two nights ago? I didn’t get a chance to watch. Hadn’t slept in 36 hours due to travel and passed out at 8pm.

He’s been good though. I don’t think he’s a top end talent, but he could easily be a very good MOR guy like Rick Porcello, who occasionally throws up a great season when everything goes his way.

 

[CBBI]

How would you guys set the ALDS rotation?

Game 1 road
Game 2 road
Off Day
Game 3 home
Game 4 home
Off Day
Game 5 road

I think you go...

Bauer
Kluber
Carrasco
Clevinger
Bauer with Kluber available in relief.

No need to pitch anyone on short rest with 4 capable starters.

 

[MGMT]

You mean two nights ago? I didn’t get a chance to watch. Hadn’t slept in 36 hours due to travel and passed out at 8pm.

He’s been good though. I don’t think he’s a top end talent, but he could easily be a very good MOR guy like Rick Porcello, who occasionally throws up a great season when everything goes his way.

Yeah, I’ve had the week from hell. I forgot Bauer pitched last night and I actually watched the game last night too.

I haven’t looked back at the play-by-play to support my claim, but it seemed like he was pretty even between looking at swinging strikeouts — or I guess strikes in general but I’m not sure what that looks like for the average pitcher as far as ratio.

 

[Derek]

Yeah, I’ve had the week from hell. I forgot Bauer pitched last night and I actually watched the game last night too.

I haven’t looked back at the play-by-play to support my claim, but it seemed like he was pretty even between looking at swinging strikeouts — or I guess strikes in general but I’m not sure what that looks like for the average pitcher as far as ratio.

His swing and miss numbers were right in line with his season averages, which are decent.

Any time you’re over 10% as a starter I think you’re doing pretty well.

He was at 10.5% and is 11.2% on the year.

 

[bob2the2nd]

How would you guys set the ALDS rotation?

Game 1 road
Game 2 road
Off Day
Game 3 home
Game 4 home
Off Day
Game 5 road

I think you go...

Bauer
Kluber
Carrasco
Clevinger
Bauer with Kluber available in relief.

No need to pitch anyone on short rest with 4 capable starters.

Depends on how the series is going. If game 4 is a must win I put the game 1 starter in to start game 4. If game 4 is not a must win i stick to the normal rotation.

 

[MGMT]

Delte

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Depends on how the series is going. If game 4 is a must win I put the game 1 starter in to start game 4. If game 4 is not a must win i stick to the normal rotation.

I think this opinion is stupid.

Figure out what gives you the best chance of winning every game. Based on what I've seen, that's not forcing a pitcher to go on short rest.

But, even if you thought you had a better chance with short rest Kluber and Bauer pitching, you say that and stick to it.

You don't pick a sub-optimal strategy because you're afraid of media criticism.

 

[Cassity14]

2018 Clevinger is the best no.4 starter this team has had in a playoff run. I see no reason he shouldn't be pitching in that spot.

If you want to use a guy like Bauer or Kluber on short rest, let them pitch an inning or 2 of relif after Clevinger at least starts the game. That's all depending on the shape the bullpen is in though.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

2018 Clevinger is the best no.4 starter this team has had in a playoff run. I see no reason he shouldn't be pitching in that spot.

If you want to use a guy like Bauer or Kluber on short rest, let them pitch an inning or 2 of relif after Clevinger at least starts the game. That's all depending on the shape the bullpen is in though.

Clevinger is the best #4 starter in baseball this season. It would be laughable to shorten your rotation and not throw him out there.