2019 Browns Off Season/Roster Discussion

[Ohio]

Mary K coming in hot with the sauces.

It’s a new Browns era, gentleman.

Mary Kay has actually had some legit scoops recently

Put some respek on her name!

 

[bigfoot5415]

MKC has stated that he wanted to honor his commitment to Baltimore, partly due to his relationship with their DL coach, who coached him in Tampa.

I can respect that.

If hes looking for a playoff contender; there is only one logical choice. If it's just about money, I'm cool with the line we have.

 

[Surge]

Mary Kay has actually had some legit scoops recently

Put some respek on her name!

At least the scoops are actually sports and not just the scoops of dirt from her garden....

 

[MoFlo]

View: https://twitter.com/JosinaAnderson/status/1132031166452834305?s=19

 

[AZ_]

McCoy always struck me as a pretty good personality type when he was on Hard Knocks.

Really enjoyed watching his career. Would be a great addition, IMO.

https://youtu.be/dzbsSN5SXnw

 

[shoes22]

With McCoy looking like he’s in the bag, I’m surprised there haven’t been any comments that Dorsey is blowing all of our cap space and we’re fucking ourselves for 2021 or whatever

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

With McCoy looking like he’s in the bag, I’m surprised there haven’t been any comments that Dorsey is blowing all of our cap space and we’re fucking ourselves for 2021 or whatever

Well, it does kinda screw up our cap. With McCoy getting a Suh level contract, the Browns likely will likely be about 50 million over. With rollover, the Browns would still need to clear some space. Most of the guys coming off the books next year/can be cup for little hit are likely gone. Hubbard, Robinson, Randle, Carrie. Maybe you keep Schobert but who knows, same with Terrance Mitchell.

 

[TheISHT]

This is where Dorsey/Scouts need to actually identify/draft (3rd,4th,5th) or sign undrafted players and develop them to fill vacancies for some type of sustainability.

 

[CBBI]

With McCoy looking like he’s in the bag, I’m surprised there haven’t been any comments that Dorsey is blowing all of our cap space and we’re fucking ourselves for 2021 or whatever

I get that you're trying to be snarky, but as @Amherstcavsfan said the Browns are actually going to have to get rid of several players because they've spent so much of their rollover cap.

Here's a quick and dirty explanation of rollover cap.

NFL teams have to spend 89% of the total salary cap over a 4 year period, in this case 2017-2020. Because it's over a 4-year period, any year you don't spend to the cap limit, the unused cap space "rolls over" to the next year.

The 2016 Browns rolled over 50M. The 2017 Browns rolled over 58M. The 2018 Browns rolled over 56.5M into 2019.

In effect, that extra rollover cap means the Browns in the 2019 could field a roster making 244.7M which is the 188.2M salary cap limit plus the 56.5M in unused rollover cap.

As it stands today, the Browns have spent 211.05M of that 244.7M for 2019. If you include Gerald McCoy on a deal worth 10M for 2019, that number jumps to 221.05M which would leave approximately 23.65M in rollover cap space for 2020.

The salary cap for 2020 is looking like it's going to be right at 200M. Combine that 200M with the 23.65M in rollover cap and the Browns will be able to spend as much as 224M for 2020.

The Browns have approximately 190M in committed salary for 2020 already. Factor in another 5-6M in rookie contracts from the 2020 draft and you're looking at only about 5M in actual cap space. Throw in the 23.65M in rollover and you're looking at about 28M total for 2020.

Cleveland also has 8 projected starters/contributors - Robinson, Tretter, Higgins, Randall, Hunt, Schobert, Murray and McCoy (assuming he's on a 1 year deal) heading into free agency in 2020 with only 28M in spendable cash to retain them all.

Luckily for the Browns, they do have three non-essential players they can get rid of without much dead cap penalty to create some savings.

Kirksey saves 7.55M
Carrie saves 6.35M
Hubbard saves 4.9M

All three of those guys are going to start/play a lot in 2019, but none of them are indispensable. Cutting those three will shed almost 19M, bringing the practical cap space to closer to 25M which gives some wiggle room on retaining some of the better FAs to be.

I'd also expect to see the Browns approach Vernon and Landry with restructured contracts to lower their 2020 cap hits from 15.5 and 14.55M respectively.

It's not an either or proposition necessarily, but spending 10M on McCoy for 2019 does means 10M less to spend in 2020. Could that extra 10M for 2020 be the $ needed to retain Randall or Schobert? Possibly.

Will any of this matter if the Browns win the Super Bowl this year? Of course not, but they're going to have to be very cognizant of their spending especially knowing that they're going to have to make Garrett likely the highest paid defensive player in NFL history in 2021 with Baker up next in 2022.

 

[Mr. Orange]

I get that you're trying to be snarky, but as @Amherstcavsfan said the Browns are actually going to have to get rid of several players because they've spent so much of their rollover cap.

Here's a quick and dirty explanation of rollover cap.

NFL teams have to spend 89% of the total salary cap over a 4 year period, in this case 2017-2020. Because it's over a 4-year period, any year you don't spend to the cap limit, the unused cap space "rolls over" to the next year.

The 2016 Browns rolled over 50M. The 2017 Browns rolled over 58M. The 2018 Browns rolled over 56.5M into 2019.

In effect, that extra rollover cap means the Browns in the 2019 could field a roster making 244.7M which is the 188.2M salary cap limit plus the 56.5M in unused rollover cap.

As it stands today, the Browns have spent 211.05M of that 244.7M for 2019. If you include Gerald McCoy on a deal worth 10M for 2019, that number jumps to 221.05M which would leave approximately 23.65M in rollover cap space for 2020.

The salary cap for 2020 is looking like it's going to be right at 200M. Combine that 200M with the 23.65M in rollover cap and the Browns will be able to spend as much as 224M for 2020.

The Browns have approximately 190M in committed salary for 2020 already. Factor in another 5-6M in rookie contracts from the 2020 draft and you're looking at only about 5M in actual cap space. Throw in the 23.65M in rollover and you're looking at about 28M total for 2020.

Cleveland also has 8 projected starters/contributors - Robinson, Tretter, Higgins, Randall, Hunt, Schobert, Murray and McCoy (assuming he's on a 1 year deal) heading into free agency in 2020 with only 28M in spendable cash to retain them all.

Luckily for the Browns, they do have three non-essential players they can get rid of without much dead cap penalty to create some savings.

Kirksey saves 7.55M
Carrie saves 6.35M
Hubbard saves 4.9M

All three of those guys are going to start/play a lot in 2019, but none of them are indispensable. Cutting those three will shed almost 19M, bringing the practical cap space to closer to 25M which gives some wiggle room on retaining some of the better FAs to be.

I'd also expect to see the Browns approach Vernon and Landry with restructured contracts to lower their 2020 cap hits from 15.5 and 14.55M respectively.

It's not an either or proposition necessarily, but spending 10M on McCoy for 2019 does means 10M less to spend in 2020. Could that extra 10M for 2020 be the $ needed to retain Randall or Schobert? Possibly.

Will any of this matter if the Browns win the Super Bowl this year? Of course not, but they're going to have to be very cognizant of their spending especially knowing that they're going to have to make Garrett likely the highest paid defensive player in NFL history in 2021 with Baker up next in 2022.

Schobert is definitely done after this year. Someone posted he had to most missed tackles in the NFL last year. TakiTaki, Mack Wilson both will be candidates to replace him in 2020. Hubbard will likely be gone as well and I would imagine in the draft next year the OT is addressed in rounds 1-3. Definitely not the time to think about the cap. You have a star QB on a rookie deal, press the gas.

 

[CBBI]

Definitely not the time to think about the cap. You have a star QB on a rookie deal, press the gas.

Wholeheartedly agree. The time to strike is absolutely right this very second. The Browns should be trying to win the next three Super Bowls frankly.

Things are going to change when Garrett is making 25M and Mayfield is making 35M a year.

My only retort would be... does adding McCoy, which will likely be for 2019 only, make enough of an impact this year to offset what very likely means the end of Schobert and/or Randall after this season?

Again, it’s not necessarily an either/or, but if signing McCoy keeps the Browns from retaining one of those other two in a year, is it really worth it?

 

[Gimme Some Mo]

Wholeheartedly agree. The time to strike is absolutely right this very second. The Browns should be trying to win the next three Super Bowls frankly.

Things are going to change when Garrett is making 25M and Mayfield is making 35M a year.

My only retort would be... does adding McCoy, which will likely be for 2019 only, make enough of an impact this year to offset what very likely means the end of Schobert and/or Randall after this season?

Again, it’s not necessarily an either/or, but if signing McCoy keeps the Browns from retaining one of those other two in a year, is it really worth it?

If it truly is an either/or scenario, then I think the answer is pretty easily no, it's not worth it. If we didn't sign Sheldon Richardson already and still had a massive hole at DT, then yes, it would be.

Would adding McCoy to the team really change anyone's win total prediction for the season?

 

[Mr. Orange]

Wholeheartedly agree. The time to strike is absolutely right this very second. The Browns should be trying to win the next three Super Bowls frankly.

Things are going to change when Garrett is making 25M and Mayfield is making 35M a year.

My only retort would be... does adding McCoy, which will likely be for 2019 only, make enough of an impact this year to offset what very likely means the end of Schobert and/or Randall after this season?

Again, it’s not necessarily an either/or, but if signing McCoy keeps the Browns from retaining one of those other two in a year, is it really worth it?

Schobert won't be back in 2020. Would like to keep Randall but I think we can worry about that next year. Maybe McCoy will play for like 8MM too. That would help.

 

[CBBI]

If it truly is an either/or scenario, then I think the answer is pretty easily no, it's not worth it. If we didn't sign Sheldon Richardson already and still had a massive hole at DT, then yes, it would be.

Would adding McCoy to the team really change anyone's win total prediction for the season?

We can't say for sure it's an either/or scenario, but facts are facts. Spending whatever amount they plan to spend on McCoy literally means that much less to spend next offseason.

This also sparks an entirely different debate about how drafting arguably becomes even more critical when you have several high priced blue chip players like the Browns already have and are going to have even more of moving forward.

Drafting is always important, but when you have multiple guys being paid near the top of their position like the Browns already have with Beckham/Vernon/Landry/Bitonio with several more on the way (Garrett, Mayfield, Ward), it makes it very difficult to afford much of a middle class on your roster.

This sounds crazy, but the Browns have hit on enough blue chip talent at the right spots to be highly competitive RIGHT NOW and for the immediate future. What Dorsey and his crew are going to really need to do next is hit on some of their non-obvious (2nd/3rd round and later) picks to keep this window open as long as possible. Guys like Callaway, Avery, Corbett, Takitaki, Redwine, Wilson are the guys who really need to develop into starting caliber players by their 2nd or 3rd years so the Browns can replace the guys in front of them making 7-10M per season.

If the Browns can draft really well, they can afford to skimp out on the middle class without it killing them on the field and instead focus on just paying the premium to have as many star players as possible.

 

[CBBI]

In a absolutely perfect world, by 2020 or 2021...

Takitaki and Wilson have replaced Schobert and Kirksey
Redwine has replaced Randall
Callaway has replaced Landry
Avery has replaced Vernon

And you're paying those five guys 5M total instead of the 55M the guys ahead of them were making and there's no noticeable drop off in production.

The key is to identify the true blue chip players who cannot be replaced without a severe drop off in on-field production and pay them literally whatever it takes to retain them. On paper, it appears those guys will be Mayfield, Garrett, Beckham and Ward.

Everyone else, even guys who are talented, can and likely will be eventually moved on from at a certain price point with a cheaper option from the draft.