When it comes to this season, I think there's a misconception that it's all or nothing.
1) Playoff Contention or 2) Blatant Tanking.
In truth, I think there are many layers in between.
Tanking is intentionally losing as much as possible. Hell, some teams last year were resting their young players the 2nd half of the season because they were winning too many games. I don't like what that can do for chemistry. However, there's a way to franchise-reboot without destroying culture.
The Plan:
I think that Cleveland needs to grow their youth. Play them thick or thin, good or bad. Have patience with them.
We also are at a point where we must liquidate our aging assets before their value is lost. The only two with any semblance of value are Love and Korver.
Korver, given his strong presence in the locker room, should only be made available if we are acquiring a late 1st rounder. Late 2nd round picks are not worth losing what he does for our young guys. It's players like him--and now Frye--that help you maintain that culture. Plus, he'd essentially be a nice $7 million expiring next season if you retain him.
Kevin Love, although I appreciate him, is nearly 30 years old with a bad back. Given his contract status, he must be dealt by the trade deadline. I would be fine with keeping him if he were just any other run-of-the-mill veteran, but as a 5-time All-Star, he has value. You must mine that value by dealing him to a playoff team. It's either that or lose him for nothing at the end of the year--which cannot happen. Originally, I was thinking we could extend him to give us more time to deal him. However, it just doesn't make sense if you're honest with yourself. Given his age, he's not in our core window. I don't know that I love the idea of committing massive long-term money to him. I don't see him being 1) Healthy or 2) The Same Player in 3 years.
Thus, if you want to keep him around half of this season to ease the transition for the young guys, I suppose I could get behind that. However, it's a large risk given his injury history. Preferably, there'd be a fair deal on the table before the start of the season. Either way, must be traded by the deadline. Just has to happen, simple as that.
Given that interested parties are likely playoff teams, the package I'm looking at for Love--taking back a 2-year bad-money contract, a B-level young player, a 1st round pick (Top 10 protected).
However, really anything is on the table. It doesn't have to be the perfect deal. Anything that gives us more asset-flexibility is worth doing.
For example, I'd also be open to a contract-for-contract swap if we get a younger player that is on a slightly overpaid deal. Something along these lines might involve taking Otto Porter (and a lottery-protected 1st) from Washington in exchange for Love. In this case, they get an All-Star forward to complement Beal/Wall while we get younger. Porter is 25 and locked-up (albeit on a large deal, as mentioned). He's closer to our core in age and is still growing as a player. This bides you time to make another move as the clock on Love was ticking. A similar scenario would be McCollum in Portland for Love. Again, these players aren't "cost-controlled" rookies like I really want, but they at least take you a step in the right direction for a reboot.
Sexton, Osman, Porter, Nance, Zizic or Sexton, McCollum, Osman, Nance, Zizic.
Both lineups are young with the flexibility to perform future transactions. Porter, and to a lesser extent, McCollum, have not been the primary scorers on a team yet. The "1st" option. Perhaps, one of them would explode on our roster (along with their league value) and then you have a good problem of choosing to deal them for cost-controlled young players and picks, or keeping them as part of your core.
As mentioned, we want to play our youth to allow them to develop. It's also important that we keep the right complementary veterans. I've mentioned Korver (unless blown away) and Frye. I'd love to make a run at RJ as well, but he may have nothing left. Now, you must determine which veterans are going to be a problem in the locker room.
Tristan Thompson. I don't like his game, I don't like his contract, but he's also never been a real "cancer." I'd certainly assess his value around the league, but with what he's owed over the next two years, you're likely better off keeping him as a veteran and shopping him next year as an expiring. He won't be a problem. Generally, he's a pretty hard worker.
George Hill. I think his presence is going to help ease the transition for Sexton. He's the type of player that has always been a good pro. Quiet, not really a problem, and plays both ways. He may start with the rookie to begin the year. By the deadline, however, his contract may be useful in taking back bad 2-year money and acquiring a 1st round pick.
J.R. Smith, I'd have to imagine, has been shopped heavily at this point. He should be. Perhaps, you can send him in a deal to take back money--something like Kent Bazemore in Atlanta. You'd likely have to send someone like Perkins as well to even the money, but either way, all teams involved are likely buying these players out. For me, it wouldn't even take a pick back from Atlanta to take on that Bazemore contract. Sure, I'd ask to make our pick Top-20 or Lottery protected instead of Top-10. But in the end, I'd do it just to get away from J.R.
If no deal can be reached, J.R. needs bought out. He can't be on this roster. He's a cancerous growth on the ass cheek of morale. I don't want him polluting our young players.
So, we just mentioned that Atlanta pick. As we all know, Top 10 protected in '19 and '20, conveys as two second rounders if not. It's imperative that we keep that pick. Absolutely imperative. And the good thing is... I don't think it'll be hard to do without truly tanking.
We don't have a championship roster. Last season, 10 teams in the West won 42 games or more. 10 teams. That didn't include LA, who now has one LeBron James. I anticipate all 11 of these teams will win 40 games again.
Essentially, you can contend for the last playoff spot in the East, fall short, and likely still stick at 9-10 in the lottery odds, giving us a high probability to keep our pick.
Even with Love, I don't think this team was going to win more than 35 games. Dealing him, I think our guys can have plenty of positive moments this year and grow while, ultimately, still falling around 28-30 wins and a 7-8 slot in the lottery odds. And with lottery reform, who knows, that might pop into the top 3. It's not a slam dunk to tank anymore anyway.
The next step is to be wise with the two-way contracts and your Canton Charge use. Billy Preston as a boom/bust two-way is exactly the type of move that we should be making. Cycle through players on the Charge roster and give them looks. Monitor the G-League with a fine-tooth comb. Perhaps even keep that 2nd two-way open so you have it to offer when that diamond in the rough is found.
Lastly, if things have worked out as expected, you should have 2 first round picks in the 2019 draft (including your own). We have a chance to add two more cost-controlled young players to the roster.
In the meantime, we have plenty of money coming off the roster over the next two years. Gifted with cap room, young assets, and a stable core--2020/2021 is the year where we pounce as a playoff team.
For the time being, 2018/19 and 2019/20 will still have plenty of positive moments to keep the culture from deteriorating as our young players grow up. Two "down" years is hardly a rebuild. It's a reboot. I think we all should be able to live with that.
