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2019 NBA Draft

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Doumbouya is firmly out of the top tier for me at this point.

I don't buy the shot whatsoever.
 
Been looking through more international prospects...does anyone know much about Arturs Zagars? He seems like he could be the Trae Young of this draft.
 
Here are my totally subjective thoughts on the relative strengths/weaknesses of the top players in this draft. I'm attempting to go by the following template, but obviously I'm missing a lot of information on most of these guys. What skills am I overrating or underrating?



Zion

Interior Offense: 10

Perimeter Offense: 4

Team Offense: 6

Interior Defense: 8

Perimeter Defense: 7

Team Defense: 4

Total: 39


Little

Interior Offense: 8

Perimeter Offense: 5

Team Offense: 4

Interior Defense: 8

Perimeter Defense: 9

Team Defense: 7

Total: 42


Reddish

Interior Offense: 7

Perimeter Offense: 8

Team Offense: 6

Interior Defense: 4

Perimeter Defense: 6

Team Defense: 5

Total: 36


Barrett

Interior Offense: 8

Perimeter Offense: 4

Team Offense: 6

Interior Defense: 8

Perimeter Defense: 7

Team Defense: 5

Total: 38


Bol

Interior Offense: 6

Perimeter Offense: 8

Team Offense: 5

Interior Defense: 6

Perimeter Defense: 3

Team Defense: 8

Total: 36


Porter

Interior Offense: 6

Perimeter Offense: 8

Team Offense: 7

Interior Defense: 6

Perimeter Defense: 6

Team Defense: 6

Total: 39


Doumbouya

Interior Offense: 8

Perimeter Offense: 4

Team Offense: 4

Interior Defense: 9

Perimeter Defense: 8

Team Defense: 5

Total: 38
This rating system looks very good to me if you are trying to keep it simple for broad appeal. Obviously you could go more in depth with more specialized categories, but this is a very good quick and dirty rating system.
 
Those that follow college ball, what can you tell me about guys like:

- Nazreon Reid
- Quentin Grimes
 
Really? he is a mid to late first prospect. Can do a little bit of everything, but he is long way from being a an average shooter in the NBA. Good defender.

%'s definitely weighed down by shot selection. International stuff this summer I know he was probably asked to do too much. It's super early, so I'm not that head over heels for him or anything. Just definitely the main international guy I'm interested in watching besides Doumbuya... who is looking less and less like a top 5 talent to me.

Those that follow college ball, what can you tell me about guys like:

- Nazreon Reid
- Quentin Grimes

Reid is super unique. I'd recommend checking out the highlights from the McDonald's game to get a sense for some of the things he can do. His main skill is handling/grab-and-go, which is absurd at his size. Not a knockdown shooter, but has potential as a spot up guy. His passing is flash over substance, but he does have some legit creation ability. His biggest issues from the little I've watched are his conditioning and defense. I try not to be too harsh on high school players' defense because it seems like they're never asked to try, but when you pair it with his conditioning it's worrisome. He has solid tools though, I think he's close to a 9 foot standing reach. A lot of people like him right now going into the year because of how unique of a player he is, but I'm in wait and see mode.

I don't know as much about Grimes, but I think I've seen people with him as the top PG in the draft. It seems like the main issue with him is that he's sort of stuck between the 1 and 2, and whether or not he can your primary creator. I watched him in a couple games of the U18s this summer and he looked decent. Overall though I wasn't blown away by his creation ability and seemed like he could end up relying on quite a bit of low quality shots. But I've not watched a ton of him.
 
Here is the whole issue with RJ in a nutshell, if there is one. At least for me. There's not any one thing you can really point to with him that is at an elite level, even amongst his peers. Except maybe for more intangible things like "feel" and basketball IQ. His athleticism is good--he'll be a better than average athlete on the wing in the NBA, but not elite either in terms of getting up over his defender or, even more so, past him. His handle is okay, good enough if he's never the primary creator on the floor, but definitely not a strength at this point. Same with his shot, as you said. Great size for a guard but without great guard skills and just decent size for a small forward with good ability as an off-the-ball wing. One thing definitely going in his favor is his tremendously young age, though. He's young for his class, almost a year younger than his teammate/classmate Cam Reddish, for instance...

...but not as young as his other teammate/classmate, Zion, astoundingly (RJ turned 18 in June; Zion in July).

And Zion, having just turned 18 a month ago, would be one of the top 3 largest men in the entire NBA in terms of just sheer weight if he stepped onto the court TODAY. I saw you are a fan of Zion too so I'm not trying to convince you or anything, I'm just still so in awe at the size of the lad that I have to talk more about it.

Every year, there are athletic "freaks." But I always think of it as a relative thing, as in it's always compared to the rest of the class. Marvin Bagley, for instance, was this year's pure athlete, with explosiveness lauded as absolutely elite. But to me Bagley is a guy with explosiveness that's a strength for him, but not off the charts when compared to the other plus athletes at the position in the NBA. There are a lot of great athletes in the NBA, after all. But Zion... Zion is virtually unprecedented just in terms of the sheer physics of the kid. Beyond the NBA... just in terms of the mass and power and lift being generated.

Take Myles Garrett for comparison. An absolute freak in the NFL. Per his combine, at 21, he was 6'4, 272, with a 41" vert. Zion is a freshly 18 year old kid that just reported to Duke at 6'7, 285 pounds, and while I have not seen the actual vert measurement published, he reportedly broke the max vert record at Duke. The video shows that they actually had to put something under the rack to raise it up when he cleared it his first jump.

LeBron is the freakiest human I have ever seen in terms of his combination of size, strength, speed, explosiveness. Might be the freakiest ever in terms of the major pro sports. And Zion at 18 is way heavier, maybe an inch or so shorter, and I would argue more explosive than LeBron at the same age. I can't believe I can even make that claim with straight face.

Then add to that some relatively unique traits that Zion has already shown at his young age, some of which aren't even dependent upon being bigger or jumping higher than his competition. First and foremost is his ball handling, which actually looks really good. Not just like a "hey he can put the ball on the floor if he needs to" or "I've seen him go coast to coast" kind of good for a big, but actually good. He has a compact controlled dribble and, unlike so many uber athletes, looks like he may actually be able to utilize his explosive first step bringing the ball with him. He looks in control dribbling in transition even with contact and can even keep his eyes up a little while running the break, which a lot of bigger guys struggle with early on. He's a plus passer. He's also extraordinarily skilled at finishing with finesse and agility around the rim when he can't just go up and over the defense.

His jumper is really whack though. Currently looks like he's playing beer pong. And I'm conveniently ignoring his defense as much as he has thus far, just because the settings haven't been exactly defense rich environments, but I do doubt that will ever be his strength.

Nevertheless, this kid is just about the most intriguing and unique prospect I've ever seen and I can't wait to see what he becomes and I'm rooting against that being a bust.
For Zion to be an elite player he is going to have to be an elite defender in my opinion. I'm looking forward to watching him play, but from what i've seen so far he doesn't have the tools in his game to be an elite offensive player right now. He should have plenty of roll gravity and be excellent in transition, but his jumpshot doesn't look like it's there and i'm not seeing elite shot creation or playmaking ability.

He has the physicals to be a better perimeter defending version of Draymond Green, but we are talking about a major outlier there and it's not likely he approaches that.

If it turns out you have an elite 1-5 switch defender that has roll gravity and is great in transition then I would be more than happy to take him with our pick. If he's a weak or even average defender I want to stay far away.
 
In a total of 41 minutes across three games, Doumbouya has managed 11 points on 5/16 shooting, 10 boards, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block, and 2 turnovers. Amazingly, just one free throw attempt. Pretty much a worst case scenario start to the season for him...I probably wouldn't have him top-10 on my board at the moment, maybe not even lottery.
 
In a total of 41 minutes across three games, Doumbouya has managed 11 points on 5/16 shooting, 10 boards, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block, and 2 turnovers. Amazingly, just one free throw attempt. Pretty much a worst case scenario start to the season for him...I probably wouldn't have him top-10 on my board at the moment, maybe not even lottery.
Ouch, nbadraft.net had him number 2.
 
Ouch, nbadraft.net had him number 2.

Yeah, I don't see how you can justify that. French league competition is basically the same level as major conference D1 NCAA, so we're looking at a guy who would likely be a fringe rotation player if he were a college freshman this year. Granted, he's a full year younger than the typical freshman, but still...looks more like a mid-1st draft and stash type who could be interesting in a few years than a high lottery pick who can come in and produce right away.
 
He was pretty meh in their first preseason game, so I think it's way too soon to draw any conclusions...big picture, I still see the same strengths and weaknesses. Good shooter, good finisher on cuts, but doesn't really have the physical tools or craftiness to create offense on his own at the NBA level.


You think Sexton is going to be the better player?

In the first game he scores 20 points and shot 8-10. I can't say that is considered meh for a rookie.
 

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