2019 NBA Draft

[cliffdawg]

I'd be pretty happy with Milwaukee 2020, their 2nd, and #3 to move back one slot. But I'm higher on some of the other guys further down the line than I am on Barrett. It does depend on the assets.

If the Suns want Morant bad enough (and they should, he fits their chief need) then they may pay quite a bit to move up a single slot. Also largely depends on how our club views Morant and his fit. I'm not sold on him and Sexton working together. Of course, I'm also not sold on Barrett working well with Sexton.

Hell no I want the suns first next year unprotected if available, Morant would be a goldmine pick for them, having a hard time Getting excited for Barrett......

 

[Nathan S]

Winner-takes-all game 5 of the Adriatic League finals was delayed an hour after Crvena Zvezda fans drove Goga's Buducnost squad from the court with bricks, chunks of iron, and other projectiles. Ah, European basketball...

 

[inliner311]

Hell no I want the suns first next year unprotected if available, Morant would be a goldmine pick for them, having a hard time Getting excited for Barrett......

I agree that Morant could make everything fall in line for the Suns. Their pick next year becomes alot less valuable because of it. I wouldn't move out of the top 3 to get that Suns pick. Like Barrett or not, I think most people still think he is a clear level above the guys projected at 4-6. I would hate to pass up Barrett or Morant for White, Hunter, Reddish, or Culver and the Suns 2020 pick. That pick might end up in the teens somewhere.

 

[AllforOne]

I agree that Morant could make everything fall in line for the Suns. Their pick next year becomes alot less valuable because of it. I wouldn't move out of the top 3 to get that Suns pick. Like Barrett or not, I think most people still think he is a clear level above the guys projected at 4-6. I would hate to pass up Barrett or Morant for White, Hunter, Reddish, or Culver and the Suns 2020 pick. That pick might end up in the teens somewhere.

Completely agree. I see the top of the draft as having a few tiers:

Tier 1: Zion
Tier 2: RJ, Ja
Tiers 3-whatever: Everybody else

My feeling is that they shouldn't make a trade where they move down from one tier to another. e.g:

• If the Cavs would end up with the #1 pick, just take Zion and be done with it; don't get cute;
• If the Cavs end up at #2, and are truly happy with either RJ or Ja, then entertain a swap with whoever is at #3, but no lower;
• If the Cavs end up at #3, stay there and take whoever is left out of Zion/RJ/Ja;
• If the Cavs end up at #4, 5, or 6, then entertain a trade down, as long as they can still get a guy they want at the lower position.

Only exception is if somebody loses their minds and throws an insane Godfather deal at the Cavs to swap.

 

[Nathan S]

Completely agree. I see the top of the draft as having a few tiers:

Tier 1: Zion
Tier 2: RJ, Ja
Tiers 3-whatever: Everybody else

My feeling is that they shouldn't make a trade where they move down from one tier to another. e.g:

• If the Cavs would end up with the #1 pick, just take Zion and be done with it; don't get cute;
• If the Cavs end up at #2, and are truly happy with either RJ or Ja, then entertain a swap with whoever is at #3, but no lower;
• If the Cavs end up at #3, stay there and take whoever is left out of Zion/RJ/Ja;
• If the Cavs end up at #4, 5, or 6, then entertain a trade down, as long as they can still get a guy they want at the lower position.

Only exception is if somebody loses their minds and throws an insane Godfather deal at the Cavs to swap.

I think that exception is pretty significant though. Say the top-4 is Knicks/Hawks/Cavs/Suns. Zion/RJ go 1/2 no doubt...and Suns could very well make a huge offer to trade up to #3. Say they offer the 4th pick, their top-5 protected 2020 first rounder, and the Bucks' 2020 first rounder. Cavs give Sexton the reins next year to see what he's got, and if he faceplants the 2020 draft is loaded with elite PG prospects and we most likely have 2 lottery picks and another first rounder to play with. I'd seriously consider it.

 

[ajz20]

I think that exception is pretty significant though. Say the top-4 is Knicks/Hawks/Cavs/Suns. Zion/RJ go 1/2 no doubt...and Suns could very well make a huge offer to trade up to #3. Say they offer the 4th pick, their top-5 protected 2020 first rounder, and the Bucks' 2020 first rounder. Cavs give Sexton the reins next year to see what he's got, and if he faceplants the 2020 draft is loaded with elite PG prospects and we most likely have 2 lottery picks and another first rounder to play with. I'd seriously consider it.

Interesting scenario... if JA Morant becomes an athletic Steve Nash it becomes a horrible mistake that the team will regret for a long time. That bucks pick next year is pretty much a second rounder, so the Suns 2020 pick would have to really be worth it. Very very early but next years draft is not oozing with future hall of fame talent either.
I do like Anthony Edwards but I highly doubt he would be there if it was top 5 protected. I would insist on top 2 protection only, but with Morant I think the Suns take a major step forward and we are looking at a pick in the 6 to 12 range. I’d rather just draft Morant.

 

[Nathan S]

Interesting scenario... if JA Morant becomes an athletic Steve Nash it becomes a horrible mistake that the team will regret for a long time. That bucks pick next year is pretty much a second rounder, so the Suns 2020 pick would have to really be worth it. Very very early but next years draft is not oozing with future hall of fame talent either.
I do like Anthony Edwards but I highly doubt he would be there if it was top 5 protected. I would insist on top 2 protection only, but with Morant I think the Suns take a major step forward and we are looking at a pick in the 6 to 12 range. I’d rather just draft Morant.

Yeah, I can see that. Dollar vs quarters thing, and I tend to think the conventional wisdom of keeping the dollar is usually the right choice. But if there's any team that might overpay for Morant and has the assets to do so, it's the Suns. And all else being equal it seems like a good idea to sell a PG in this draft when they're super scarce, and pick one up in next year's draft where they're super abundant. ESPN has point or combo guards as 10 of the top 22 prospects in 2020, and probability says at least 2 or 3 of those guys will be looking *really* good this time next year.

 

[AllforOne]

I think that exception is pretty significant though. Say the top-4 is Knicks/Hawks/Cavs/Suns. Zion/RJ go 1/2 no doubt...and Suns could very well make a huge offer to trade up to #3. Say they offer the 4th pick, their top-5 protected 2020 first rounder, and the Bucks' 2020 first rounder. Cavs give Sexton the reins next year to see what he's got, and if he faceplants the 2020 draft is loaded with elite PG prospects and we most likely have 2 lottery picks and another first rounder to play with. I'd seriously consider it.

The exception is significant because you assumed it to be significant ("the Suns could very well make a huge offer ...").

Unless I were really in love with Jarrett Culver (after seeing his tournament, I'm not) or DeAndre Hunter (after seeing his birth certificate, I'm not), I wouldn't make the deal you proposed. The Bucks 2020 pick is basically a second-rounder. The Suns pick would be more promising, but it's very possible that adding Ja to Booker, Ayton, Josh Jackson, etc. will finally make that team go.

Let's put some numbers on it. Would you trade the #3 overall pick for the #4 overall pick this year and the #12 and #30 overall picks next year? Especially knowing who is going to be available at #3 and #4?

Again, if you really like Culver or Hunter or Cam Reddish (gack) or Bol-Squared or whoever, then maybe you make that deal. I see a significant drop-off from 3 to 4 ... and a late lottery pick and a near-second rounder isn't enough to get me to move.

ETA:
A separate issue that you raised is Sexton's role. I don't see him as a PG, not at all. He's a SG who had the bad luck of being born 6'2". He's not going to suddenly learn PG skills in his second pro season. He needs to be paired with either a true PG (preferably a taller one) or a forward who is a de facto PG (not naming any names, but the guy who used to wear #23 here is what I'm thinking). Square pegs never do well when you try to force them into round holes.

 

[ajz20]

The exception is significant because you assumed it to be significant ("the Suns could very well make a huge offer ...").

Unless I were really in love with Jarrett Culver (after seeing his tournament, I'm not) or DeAndre Hunter (after seeing his birth certificate, I'm not), I wouldn't make the deal you proposed. The Bucks 2020 pick is basically a second-rounder. The Suns pick would be more promising, but it's very possible that adding Ja to Booker, Ayton, Josh Jackson, etc. will finally make that team go.

Let's put some numbers on it. Would you trade the #3 overall pick for the #4 overall pick this year and the #12 and #30 overall picks next year? Especially knowing who is going to be available at #3 and #4?

Again, if you really like Culver or Hunter or Cam Reddish (gack) or Bol-Squared or whoever, then maybe you make that deal. I see a significant drop-off from 3 to 4 ... and a late lottery pick and a near-second rounder isn't enough to get me to move.

ETA:
A separate issue that you raised is Sexton's role. I don't see him as a PG, not at all. He's a SG who had the bad luck of being born 6'2". He's not going to suddenly learn PG skills in his second pro season. He needs to be paired with either a true PG (preferably a taller one) or a forward who is a de facto PG (not naming any names, but the guy who used to wear #23 here is what I'm thinking). Square pegs never do well when you try to force them into round holes.

The answer is no to that trade because it probably works out much better for the Suns.
You are punting on a top 3 prospect and the extra pick ( bucks pick is probably a throw away) from the Suns is a huge unknown with the lottery system. You are tading morant for a lesser prospect this year for a chance to draft an extra role player next year? Just take the player who could turn out to be a super star this summer. This is not the Nfl draft ! When this team has a shot to draft premium talent they need to run to the podium, plain and simple. There will be plenty of chances to draft role players outside the top 3 in the next decade.

 

[daddywags]

The new lottery odds make it very difficult to justify trading out if you happen to hit on a top two pick. Even if the team you trade with happens to be crappy you could still end up with a lousy pick the following year. Only way I would do the proposed Phoenix deal is if I didn't like Ja and really wanted someone after him. In other words - if I was sure to get the player I wanted anyway.

 

[Nathan S]

The exception is significant because you assumed it to be significant ("the Suns could very well make a huge offer ...").

Unless I were really in love with Jarrett Culver (after seeing his tournament, I'm not) or DeAndre Hunter (after seeing his birth certificate, I'm not), I wouldn't make the deal you proposed. The Bucks 2020 pick is basically a second-rounder. The Suns pick would be more promising, but it's very possible that adding Ja to Booker, Ayton, Josh Jackson, etc. will finally make that team go.

Let's put some numbers on it. Would you trade the #3 overall pick for the #4 overall pick this year and the #12 and #30 overall picks next year? Especially knowing who is going to be available at #3 and #4?

Again, if you really like Culver or Hunter or Cam Reddish (gack) or Bol-Squared or whoever, then maybe you make that deal. I see a significant drop-off from 3 to 4 ... and a late lottery pick and a near-second rounder isn't enough to get me to move.

ETA:
A separate issue that you raised is Sexton's role. I don't see him as a PG, not at all. He's a SG who had the bad luck of being born 6'2". He's not going to suddenly learn PG skills in his second pro season. He needs to be paired with either a true PG (preferably a taller one) or a forward who is a de facto PG (not naming any names, but the guy who used to wear #23 here is what I'm thinking). Square pegs never do well when you try to force them into round holes.

Bol Bol isn't quite the #4 guy on my board, but he's the kind of guy to think about in this scenario, IMO. You have to acknowledge that he has less of a chance of reaching his ceiling than Morant, but his ceiling is plenty high, and that's important.

Then, looking at the Suns 2020 pick, I think #12 is close to a worst-case scenario for that. The Suns are a terrible team, and rookie PGs, even good ones, rarely have a positive impact right off the bat. A realistically, Morant's season will probably look something like Young's rookie year, where he puts up big numbers but struggles on and off with efficiency, turns it over a ton, and gets obliterated on defense. In the long run I like him a lot, but it would take a minor miracle for him to carry the Suns to 30+ wins next season. Given that, why would we let them top-5 protect their pick? I agree, that part of my scenario was dumb. Top-1, or top-3 at most would be more reasonable.

As for Sexton, plenty of SGs develop into PGs and become much more valuable because of it. Curry was averaging a modest 2.9 assists and 2.6 turnovers per game in college at the same age. Lillard at age 20 averaged 3.3 assists and 2.8 turnovers per game in an injury-shortened season. If the teams that drafted them had chosen to develop them as SGs, I highly doubt they would've reached their ceilings. It's not obvious to me that Sexton has the same degree of untapped point guard ability, of course, but I think it's a good idea to push him to develop those skills and see where he ends up. His long-term ceiling is much higher at PG than at SG.

The answer is no to that trade because it probably works out much better for the Suns.
You are punting on a top 3 prospect and the extra pick ( bucks pick is probably a throw away) from the Suns is a huge unknown with the lottery system. You are tading morant for a lesser prospect this year for a chance to draft an extra role player next year? Just take the player who could turn out to be a super star this summer. This is not the Nfl draft ! When this team has a shot to draft premium talent they need to run to the podium, plain and simple. There will be plenty of chances to draft role players outside the top 3 in the next decade.

Well, of course, sometimes you can draft stars outside of the top-3. Even in this draft, which appears to be fairly talent-starved outside the top-3, I think there's a decent chance you get at least one unexpected star. Dropping from 3 to 4 probably drops you from 30% to a 10% chance to get a star, but not all the way to 0. Along those lines, I'd say that the Suns 2020 pick is also worth at least a 10% chance at getting a star, maybe more if you consider the flexibility it gives us to trade up with our own 2020 first rounder to get the guy we want. Of course, based on the numbers I used, you still have 30% > 20%, but my point is just that it's not completely black and white which option gives us a better shot at drafting a star.

 

[KB]

As for Sexton, plenty of SGs develop into PGs and become much more valuable because of it. Curry was averaging a modest 2.9 assists and 2.6 turnovers per game in college at the same age. Lillard at age 20 averaged 3.3 assists and 2.8 turnovers per game in an injury-shortened season. If the teams that drafted them had chosen to develop them as SGs, I highly doubt they would've reached their ceilings. It's not obvious to me that Sexton has the same degree of untapped point guard ability, of course, but I think it's a good idea to push him to develop those skills and see where he ends up. His long-term ceiling is much higher at PG than at SG.

I'm curious, why are you comparing Sexton's NBA rookie year stats against the stats for Lillard and Curry's college years ? Is the base for that their age ?

At 20 Curry averaged 5 assists a game during his junior at Davidson, he didn't turn 21 that season until March (was born in 88). This makes the comparison even more confusing since it just comes off as disingenuous to pick Curry's sophomore year as the one used since he was 20 for only the last 2 weeks of it which was like 4 or 5 games. It just comes off as being done intentionally to make the arrangement look better instead of being consistent / accurate.

 

[Nathan S]

I'm curious, why are you comparing Sexton's NBA rookie year stats against the stats for Lillard and Curry's college years ? Is the base for that their age ?

At 20 Curry averaged 5 assists a game during his junior at Davidson, he didn't turn 21 that season until March (was born in 88). This makes the comparison even more confusing since it just comes off as disingenuous to pick Curry's sophomore year as the one used since he was 20 for only the last 2 weeks of it which was like 4 or 5 games. It just comes off as being done intentionally to make the arrangement look better instead of being consistent / accurate.

If we're going purely by age...Curry during his sophomore year of college was 2 months younger than Sexton during his rookie year in the NBA. During his junior year, he was 10 months older. Didn't want to get into the nitty-gritty, but it's certainly more accurate age-wise to compare to Curry's sophomore year. The point, anyway, is that many players make big leaps at age 20/21/22 in terms of point guard skills. Collin's still in that zone where he could realistically see his assists double from now to when he's in his prime (but only if he's given the chance to run the offense full-time).

 

[Cavatt]

I think I trade Morant for RJ and next years suns pick, but probably not for Culver and next years. So, I down from 2 to 3 but not from 3 to 4

 

[Nathan S]

I think I trade Morant for RJ and next years suns pick, but probably not for Culver and next years. So, I down from 2 to 3 but not from 3 to 4

Yeah, I think that's a reasonable position. Could go either way on it depending on what exactly the protections are, and I also go back and forth on whether or not RJ is actually a much better prospect than Culver. But definitely feels less scary to drop from 2 to 3 in this draft than it does to drop from 3 to 4.