2019 NBA Draft

[MirORich]

2006: LMA, Roy, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Gay, Tucker
2007: KD, Gasol, Horford, Conley, Thad Young, Noah, Jeff Green
2008: Westbrook, Rose, Love, Gordon, Ibaka, Batum, Lopez
2009: Curry, Harden, Griffin, DeRozan, Holiday, Evans, Teague
2010: PG13, Cousins, Wall, Hayward, Bledsoe, Favors, Bradley
2011: Kawhi, Kyrie, Klay, Butler, Kemba, Harris, Mirotic
2012: AD, Lillard, Beal, Draymond, Drummond, Middleton, Barnes
2013: Giannis, Oladipo, McCollum, Gobert, Adams, Porter, Schroeder
2014: Embiid, Jokic, Wiggins, Harris, Capela, Lavine, Saric
2015: KAT, KP, Booker, Russell, Turner, Winslow(?), Cedi(?)

Above is a list of the 10 drafts that represent some players still in their primes or just about to enter their primes in todays NBA(2006-2015). For each draft, I selected the top 7 players that came from that draft in a loose order. Don't get caught up on the exact order. The point is this, in this draft, based on past history, their is likely only 3-5 players who will ever reach All-NBA status and then another couple who could be all stars or on the verge.

So as we go through all these names for this coming draft and for our #5 pick, just understand that there is only 4-7 players total who will satisfy our expectation of what we want and feel we need from both the draft position we have and the current roster we have and need to add to.

Now, there might be more than 5-7 players who have some solid years or play a role on a good team, but no one who you're gonna feel like is what you expect out a top 5 pick. Also, if you believe that Zion, Ja, and RJ are sure to be stars or at least in the top7 players long term from this class, you're down to just 4 more who at best could be an All NBA franchise player type or all star, or high end role player.

Kind of sobering.

If you feel like it, take a stab at who you think will be the 7 most impactful players from this draft

Bonus challenge, is to find a player from these draft years not on my list that you can make an argument would be satisfying or worthy what fans expect from pick 5 in any given draft.

 

[Futuredome]

There are a couple of top 2 options every draft and a couple of them will be there with the 5th pick. The top Alpha option is not there in every draft and yes, it transforms a organization when it happens.

 

[Green Lantern]

Got pick 26 right now,,,I'm hoping we can add JR's contract to 26 and get up around 13-17 and hope he's there.
I just think Jaxson Hayes is the first center taken,,then I almost think Goga comes off second ahead of Bol. I guess it depends on what the teams think but with Bol's stick like figure and foot issues I don't see how Goga doesn't go ahead of Bol.
I had read somewhere that Goga was shooting up draft boards the more scouts see him.

Agreed..I would be very leery of taking a big with foot problems and Bol just seems like an accident waiting to happen.

 

[Nathan S]

2006: LMA, Roy, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Gay, Tucker
2007: KD, Gasol, Horford, Conley, Thad Young, Noah, Jeff Green
2008: Westbrook, Rose, Love, Gordon, Ibaka, Batum, Lopez
2009: Curry, Harden, Griffin, DeRozan, Holiday, Evans, Teague
2010: PG13, Cousins, Wall, Hayward, Bledsoe, Favors, Bradley
2011: Kawhi, Kyrie, Klay, Butler, Kemba, Harris, Mirotic
2012: AD, Lillard, Beal, Draymond, Drummond, Middleton, Barnes
2013: Giannis, Oladipo, McCollum, Gobert, Adams, Porter, Schroeder
2014: Embiid, Jokic, Wiggins, Harris, Capela, Lavine, Saric
2015: KAT, KP, Booker, Russell, Turner, Winslow(?), Cedi(?)

Above is a list of the 10 drafts that represent some players still in their primes or just about to enter their primes in todays NBA(2006-2015). For each draft, I selected the top 7 players that came from that draft in a loose order. Don't get caught up on the exact order. The point is this, in this draft, based on past history, their is likely only 3-5 players who will ever reach All-NBA status and then another couple who could be all stars or on the verge.

So as we go through all these names for this coming draft and for our #5 pick, just understand that there is only 4-7 players total who will satisfy our expectation of what we want and feel we need from both the draft position we have and the current roster we have and need to add to.

Now, there might be more than 5-7 players who have some solid years or play a role on a good team, but no one who you're gonna feel like is what you expect out a top 5 pick. Also, if you believe that Zion, Ja, and RJ are sure to be stars or at least in the top7 players long term from this class, you're down to just 4 more who at best could be an All NBA franchise player type or all star, or high end role player.

Kind of sobering.

If you feel like it, take a stab at who you think will be the 7 most impactful players from this draft

Bonus challenge, is to find a player from these draft years not on my list that you can make an argument would be satisfying or worthy what fans expect from pick 5 in any given draft.

Really tough in this draft...I'd give Zion a 90% chance, Ja and RJ something like 20-30% and 10-20% chances respectively. Culver and a handful of others just scraping 10%. Seems like the realistic range is 1-3 All-Stars.

 

[WorldFreeB]

@Nathan S ,,,You were on the Goga train way before anyone in the national media was on board. Kudos.
Saw him mocked at 10 yesterday and there is no telling where he ends up when this process is all done.
My question for you is can he do a good job covering the pick and roll? Some of these lumbering bigs struggle in that aspect but
Goga seems pretty agile like he could potentially be a pretty good pick and roll defender.

 

[Nathan S]

@Nathan S ,,,You were on the Goga train way before anyone in the national media was on board. Kudos.
Saw him mocked at 10 yesterday and there is no telling where he ends up when this process is all done.
My question for you is can he do a good job covering the pick and roll? Some of these lumbering bigs struggle in that aspect but
Goga seems pretty agile like he could potentially be a pretty good pick and roll defender.

It's not his forte, but I think he's helped some by his athleticism, which is on another level from guys like Zizic. Here are a few defensive highlights in pick&roll situations:

In a good stance to contain the ballhandler

Ballhandler passes to the roll man (former NBA big Ayon), seeing that there's no help coming. This would be an easy dunk for the roll man if Goga was a stereotypical plodder.

Goga shows good footwork, hopping nimbly into position

And then shows good explosiveness, pinning the ball against the backboard and securing the rebound

Here's another one from the same game. The ballhandler tricks Goga with a look over to the roll man (ex Cav Tavares). Goga completely loses his stance.

Instead, the ballhandler makes a beeline for the rim. Again, a stereotypical plodder in Goga's current position would have little chance of recovering to contest the shot.

Goga's able to quickly change directions...

...and use his athleticism to meet the ballhandler at the rim, just in time.

One more, from a different game. Goga's in a difficult position with wide open spaces behind him

He turns to get back to the roll man, but this leaves an open lane for the ballhandler.

Our friend Earl Clark could probably do something to make this shot more difficult, but he's Earl Clark, so he won't. If Goga was a typical plodder, this would be a fairly straightforward layup.

But Goga again uses his explosiveness to meet the ballhandler at the rim.

So, in summary, he doesn't have the best fundamentals or off-the-charts IQ. But he's good at using his quickness and explosiveness to stay in the play even when he should be beat. There's plenty of natural skill and functional athleticism there for a coach like Beilein to work with.

 

[WorldFreeB]

It's not his forte, but I think he's helped some by his athleticism, which is on another level from guys like Zizic. Here are a few defensive highlights in pick&roll situations:

In a good stance to contain the ballhandler

Ballhandler passes to the roll man (former NBA big Ayon), seeing that there's no help coming. This would be an easy dunk for the roll man if Goga was a stereotypical plodder.

Goga shows good footwork, hopping nimbly into position

And then shows good explosiveness, pinning the ball against the backboard and securing the rebound

Here's another one from the same game. The ballhandler tricks Goga with a look over to the roll man (ex Cav Tavares). Goga completely loses his stance.

Instead, the ballhandler makes a beeline for the rim. Again, a stereotypical plodder in Goga's current position would have little chance of recovering to contest the shot.

Goga's able to quickly change directions...

...and use his athleticism to meet the ballhandler at the rim, just in time.

One more, from a different game. Goga's in a difficult position with wide open spaces behind him

He turns to get back to the roll man, but this leaves an open lane for the ballhandler.

Our friend Earl Clark could probably do something to make this shot more difficult, but he's Earl Clark, so he won't. If Goga was a typical plodder, this would be a fairly straightforward layup.

But Goga again uses his explosiveness to meet the ballhandler at the rim.

So, in summary, he doesn't have the best fundamentals or off-the-charts IQ. But he's good at using his quickness and explosiveness to stay in the play even when he should be beat. There's plenty of natural skill and functional athleticism there for a coach like Beilein to work with.

Thanks for that ,,good stuff. His recovery time seems really really good. Even from the stuff you posted and the things I've been able to find online it seems like
he can be tricked and off balance but he still recovers to the ball. I've seen a ton of video of him pinning the ball at the rim. Great anticipation on his blocks and great rim runner. I'm liking him more and more. Thanks again.

 

[Cavatt]

Thanks for that ,,good stuff. His recovery time seems really really good. Even from the stuff you posted and the things I've been able to find online it seems like
he can be tricked and off balance but he still recovers to the ball. I've seen a ton of video of him pinning the ball at the rim. Great anticipation on his blocks and great rim runner. I'm liking him more and more. Thanks again.

3 and D is a not great wing, but the perfect center.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

3 and D is a not great wing, but the perfect center.

I agree. That's why I think it's really close between Goga and Jaxson in this class.

Bol has the 3, but his defense sucks.

 

[Cavatt]

I agree. That's why I think it's really close between Goga and Jaxson in this class.

Bol has the 3, but his defense sucks.

I do wonder who has more upside. Goga is more skilled now, but Jaxson shoots the ft well and has great touch. Not a 3 pt shooter yet.

I think Bol just is too light to be effective and his center of gravity is so high he will be pushed around.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

I do wonder who has more upside. Goga is more skilled now, but Jaxson shoots the ft well and has great touch. Not a 3 pt shooter yet.

I think Bol just is too light to be effective and his center of gravity is so high he will be pushed around.

I've seen Jaxson's jumpshot and it looks pure. It's slow, but what do you expect by a near 7 footer? His shot is surprisingly VERY sound.

 

[Nathan S]

I agree. That's why I think it's really close between Goga and Jaxson in this class.

Bol has the 3, but his defense sucks.

I'm not sure I'd take Bol over Goga or Hayes, but the counterargument is that he's a really, really good 3-point shooter. Like, he'll probably be the best 3-point shooting center in the NBA as soon as he steps on the court. Let me bump this post from last fall:

That first three

View: https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1058213361375154176

Has there ever been a player who can hit shots like that at 7'+? I get that he has a lot of problems, but in a draft with no obvious elite talent outside of the top-3...he's gotta be in the conversation, at least.

 

[Cavatt]

I'm not sure I'd take Bol over Goga or Hayes, but the counterargument is that he's a really, really good 3-point shooter. Like, he'll probably be the best 3-point shooting center in the NBA as soon as he steps on the court. Let me bump this post from last fall:



Has there ever been a player who can hit shots like that at 7'+? I get that he has a lot of problems, but in a draft with no obvious elite talent outside of the top-3...he's gotta be in the conversation, at least.

Yep. He is such an outlier and there is no comparison to his frame outside his dad who was 6 inches taller.

People made arguments we are making against Bol about Durant and he was picked 2nd because everyone thought he would get pushed around. What if bol can play a wing version of the 4?

It's hard to believe, but who the heck knows with such a weird dude.

 

[Nathan S]

Cavs fans, you should be rooting against Grant Williams in these combine scrimmages. A good showing combined with his measurements will certainly take him out of play at 26 if he isn't already.

Was interesting to listen to Jonathan Givony some this week. Heard him mention at one point say that scouts were telling them they had Grant too high on their mocks (believe he was in the 21-24 range).

I'd lose my mind if he somehow slipped to 26.

Almost perfect...missed a bunch of 3's which will maybe frighten away some teams? Was worried he would come through in the clutch, and he did, but hopefully it doesn't outweigh his earlier struggles

 

[daddywags]

I really like Grant Williams. Seems like the kind of guy who can step in and be a key rotation player immediately. Don't see a star but he should be a solid glue guy at least. And very low bust factor. Would be a steal at 26 IMO.