2019 NBA Draft

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Ah, I'm thinking of Culver, Norvell, and Alexander-Walker as likely PGs at the next level, so was baffled that you said you had Morant #1

For now, I'm thinking of Morant as pretty similar to Ponds. Boom-or-bust guards who could be scoring machines or duds at the next level, interesting if I have a pick in the 20's and there's no one else with any decent upside. I'll start to warm up to Morant if he shows more consistency...I think the mainstream has jumped the gun going from completely ignoring him to overrating him a bit.

I'd probably have Culver and Norvell 1a/1b, Garland, Jones, and Alexander-Walker 2a/2b/2c, and then a heap of players including Morant, the other guys you mentioned, Horton-Tucker, Nembhard, and maybe a couple others. Obviously that third tier will start to take a more definite shape after another month or so of basketball.

Yeah there could be a lot of solid PGs in the second round if they come out. I'm not as high on Norvell just because of his shot selection, but I'd still have to watch him more closely to rank him.

Culver looks similar to me on the defensive end, minus the wow athletic plays Morant has. He's not super engaged, seems like he should be a more willing defender but he lacks motor to a degree and for his size and length, his box score output is just ok (similar to Morant last year). To clarify more, he seems to float a lot on defense.....lose his man and miss close outs or not be close enough to challenge shots.

I don't know if I would call him a plodder but he looks like a more average athlete. He's also more of a straight line driver who uses his length to score over smaller college players. I'd imagine most project him as a more of a spot up player at the NBA level. 96% of his made 3's last year were assisted. Really small split this year but it looks like a few more self created opportunities.

I like his size but why do you project him as a PG? He doesn't seem to have the dribble creativity necessary to play that spot in the NBA. I like him a lot as a SG, a lot less as a PG.

I admittedly have not watched Norvell or Alexander-Walker at all, so can't really provide anything useful for comparisons sake.

Yeah Culver's not a PG. He's definitely taller than his listed 6'5" too. How much of him have you watched this year? Cus I actually would consider him a plus defender. I really like him on the ball too... gets around screens well and quick laterally.

Also he's hit a fair number of jumpers off the dribble this year. Would expect that the % assisted number is hugely affected by the situation he was in. Was next to one of the best PGs in the country. Zhaire and Zach Smith were also there. This year he's their primary creator and the three games I've watched he's had stretches where he completely takes over the game. He's in an ideal role right now... Texas Tech runs a fair bit of pick and roll and he's still used off ball a fair amount.

I'd say his athleticism is one of his major weaknesses for sure. Really lacks pop around the rim. He has a solid first step though, and like you mentioned he uses his size really well on drives to the hoop.

He's a top 10 guy for me easily.

 

[Nathan S]

Yeah there could be a lot of solid PGs in the second round if they come out. I'm not as high on Norvell just because of his shot selection, but I'd still have to watch him more closely to rank him.



Yeah Culver's not a PG. He's definitely taller than his listed 6'5" too. How much of him have you watched this year? Cus I actually would consider him a plus defender. I really like him on the ball too... gets around screens well and quick laterally.

Also he's hit a fair number of jumpers off the dribble this year. Would expect that the % assisted number is hugely affected by the situation he was in. Was next to one of the best PGs in the country. Zhaire and Zach Smith were also there. This year he's their primary creator and the three games I've watched he's had stretches where he completely takes over the game. He's in an ideal role right now... Texas Tech runs a fair bit of pick and roll and he's still used off ball a fair amount.

I'd say his athleticism is one of his major weaknesses for sure. Really lacks pop around the rim. He has a solid first step though, and like you mentioned he uses his size really well on drives to the hoop.

He's a top 10 guy for me easily.

People are overthinking it on Norvell, IMO. Possibly the best player on the best team in the country, NBA body, high-IQ, two-way player, and just bombs threes like nobody's business. Unless those threes stop falling (no signs of that yet), he seems like a sure thing to be at least a solid starter in the NBA.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

What is everyone's thoughts on Keldon Johnson?

If the Cavs were to fall to the 5th/6th pick, I'd maybe bet on them taking Keldon right now. Seems like their exact type of player that they've valued.

To me he's can guard 1-3 minimum... plays with a ton of energy on both ends. The jumper could look a lot worse, but the numbers are way far behind... He's had some really bad misses too in the games I've watched. Even without the shot I think he can drive from the perimeter well enough.

I think I'd be underwhelmed if he's the one we'd end up with, but I don't think he's bad by any means. They chose a good year to have a need on the wing... there's going to be a ton of options in the top 10 this year.

 

[ajz20]

What is everyone's thoughts on Keldon Johnson?

If the Cavs were to fall to the 5th/6th pick, I'd maybe bet on them taking Keldon right now. Seems like their exact type of player that they've valued.

To me he's can guard 1-3 minimum... plays with a ton of energy on both ends. The jumper could look a lot worse, but the numbers are way far behind... He's had some really bad misses too in the games I've watched. Even without the shot I think he can drive from the perimeter well enough.

I think I'd be underwhelmed if he's the one we'd end up with, but I don't think he's bad by any means. They chose a good year to have a need on the wing... there's going to be a ton of options in the top 10 this year.

Winning 15 to 20 games and having him be the prize is pretty depressing. Nothing against the kid but he does not project to be a special talent. Underwhelming, and unless Sexton takes a major step in development attendance and viewership would strongly continue to decline. Right now many people are watching to see Sexton grow, that novelty will start to fade next year. Without a new exciting rookie to watch..... you just have horrible basketball.

 

[Nathan S]

What is everyone's thoughts on Keldon Johnson?

If the Cavs were to fall to the 5th/6th pick, I'd maybe bet on them taking Keldon right now. Seems like their exact type of player that they've valued.

To me he's can guard 1-3 minimum... plays with a ton of energy on both ends. The jumper could look a lot worse, but the numbers are way far behind... He's had some really bad misses too in the games I've watched. Even without the shot I think he can drive from the perimeter well enough.

I think I'd be underwhelmed if he's the one we'd end up with, but I don't think he's bad by any means. They chose a good year to have a need on the wing... there's going to be a ton of options in the top 10 this year.

I'd need to know more about exactly how good he is on defense...over his last 6 games, all against mediocre teams, he's somehow managed just 3 steals and 0 blocks. Is he just not trying on that end yet? Is he one of the extremely rare good defensive players who doesn't get steals or blocks? Or is he another guy like Sexton who has a reputation as a feisty, energetic, athletic defender but doesn't actually know what he's doing?

EDIT: Like today, they're at home against UNC Greensboro and they're actually losing at the half. Johnson has done basically nothing. What's going on there?

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I'd need to know more about exactly how good he is on defense...over his last 6 games, all against mediocre teams, he's somehow managed just 3 steals and 0 blocks. Is he just not trying on that end yet? Is he one of the extremely rare good defensive players who doesn't get steals or blocks? Or is he another guy like Sexton who has a reputation as a feisty, energetic, athletic defender but doesn't actually know what he's doing?

EDIT: Like today, they're at home against UNC Greensboro and they're actually losing at the half. Johnson has done basically nothing. What's going on there?

Not sure, but it definitely wouldn't be for lack of effort.

 

[DJTJ]

Finally figured out my Zion comp for a ceiling.

Pre-drugs/weight Shawn Kemp.

 

[I'mWithDan]

What is everyone's thoughts on Keldon Johnson?

If the Cavs were to fall to the 5th/6th pick, I'd maybe bet on them taking Keldon right now. Seems like their exact type of player that they've valued.

To me he's can guard 1-3 minimum... plays with a ton of energy on both ends. The jumper could look a lot worse, but the numbers are way far behind... He's had some really bad misses too in the games I've watched. Even without the shot I think he can drive from the perimeter well enough.

I think I'd be underwhelmed if he's the one we'd end up with, but I don't think he's bad by any means. They chose a good year to have a need on the wing... there's going to be a ton of options in the top 10 this year.

My biggest hangup with Johnson is he seems like a terrible match with Sexton. He's basically a bigger version of him. Score first guard, with even less passing potential than Collin and a low volume, low percentage 3 point shooter. That backcourt would be from 1920.

I think in Johnson's case, even if he is the most talented player, we are actually better off going next best available based on out pre-draft evals. I personally like his potential as an NBA player but, for me, there doesn't seem to be a world where Sexton and Johnson can co-exist..... and Johnson isn't a transcendent enough talent for me to override that fit issue.

I always advocate BPA but I think he's just the one exception in our situation.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Finally figured out my Zion comp for a ceiling.

Pre-drugs/weight Shawn Kemp.

After watching Zion, I honestly think Kemp is a really generous comparison.

19/20/21 year old Kemp was a far more complete offensive player.

He could score in the mid range, back to basket, at the rim....and he har far better shooting mechanics than Zion.....and a more complete handle. Could also finish with both hands.

I get the athletic comparison but I don't think Zion is as complete of an offensive player as Kemp was at the same age.

 

[I'mWithDan]

@3 Ball...GOT IT one player I like at the 2, who is starting to rise a bit on NBA radars, is Jordan Poole.

He's shown a nice progression this season, of improved dribble creativity. High volume, high percentage 3 point shooter, who has shown nice improvement on the defensive end.

I think he's a year away....but I've caught a few Michigan games and he has looked like one of the best guys on the floor against two good programs now (UNC and Purdue).

He's been up and down in his career but the talent, size and shooting are there. Will be interested to see how he does the back half of the year.

I obviously wouldn't take him in the lottery (today) but he's peaked my interest, just from a two-way potential standpoint.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

@3 Ball...GOT IT one player I like at the 2, who is starting to rise a bit on NBA radars, is Jordan Poole.

He's shown a nice progression this season, of improved dribble creativity. High volume, high percentage 3 point shooter, who has shown nice improvement on the defensive end.

I think he's a year away....but I've caught a few Michigan games and he has looked like one of the best guys on the floor against two good programs now (UNC and Purdue).

He's been up and down in his career but the talent, size and shooting are there. Will be interested to see how he does the back half of the year.

I obviously wouldn't take him in the lottery (today) but he's peaked my interest, just from a two-way potential standpoint.

Yeah he's definitely going to get drafted at some point I agree. I remember him having some decent moments last year too in big games. A lot of his offensive game is perimeter oriented so I expect there to be continued consistency issues. Biggest thing I'll be watching with him is how well he can handle and beat his man 1 on 1. I watched that UNC game too and some of the shots he made were nuts.

 

[DJTJ]

After watching Zion, I honestly think Kemp is a really generous comparison.

19/20/21 year old Kemp was a far more complete offensive player.

He could score in the mid range, back to basket, at the rim....and he hard far better shooting mechanics than Zion.....and a more complete handle. Could also finish with both hands.

I get the athletic comparison but I don't think Zion is as complete of an offensive player as Kemp was at the same age.

I totally agree with everything here. What I’m saying is a ceiling, for me, is Kemp. I’d much rather Shawn kemp reignman be in this draft.

 

[Nathan S]

Updated draft ratings...I decided it would be simpler to just have one table instead of looking at mainstream and sleeper prospects separately, so they're all mixed together now. Obviously the out-of-nowhere guys on this list should be considered more likely to regress to the mean than the mainstream top prospects, but it's well worth keeping an eye on them in the mean time.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Updated draft ratings...I decided it would be simpler to just have one table instead of looking at mainstream and sleeper prospects separately, so they're all mixed together now. Obviously the out-of-nowhere guys on this list should be considered more likely to regress to the mean than the mainstream top prospects, but it's well worth keeping an eye on them in the mean time.

Does your model take into account measurements?

I've heard really good things about Grant Williams, but that he's basically a center in a wing's body.

 

[Nathan S]

Does your model take into account measurements?

I've heard really good things about Grant Williams, but that he's basically a center in a wing's body.

Only measurement it looks at is height, which is a significant positive on defense and (perhaps surprisingly) a slight negative on offense.

I think I mentioned Williams before...I like him a lot. Listed at 6'5" on sports-reference for some reason, but I'm pretty sure he's really 6'7" and plays bigger than that. Not yet comfortable on the perimeter, but he has the vision and shooting ability to extend his game if he puts in the work, which makes him really interesting IMO.