2019 NBA Draft

[Pioneer10]

Updated draft ratings...I decided it would be simpler to just have one table instead of looking at mainstream and sleeper prospects separately, so they're all mixed together now. Obviously the out-of-nowhere guys on this list should be considered more likely to regress to the mean than the mainstream top prospects, but it's well worth keeping an eye on them in the mean time.

Is Uncertainty one or two SD's from mean?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Updated draft ratings...I decided it would be simpler to just have one table instead of looking at mainstream and sleeper prospects separately, so they're all mixed together now. Obviously the out-of-nowhere guys on this list should be considered more likely to regress to the mean than the mainstream top prospects, but it's well worth keeping an eye on them in the mean time.

I wish Lawson would have stayed at Memphis. I really liked his trajectory as a stretch 4.....but his perimeter game has been swallowed up by Self's system.

He wasn't a great 3PT shooter but he was at least taking a decent number of them and trying to extend his range. Now I'm not sure what he is?

 

[Nathan S]

Is Uncertainty one or two SD's from mean?

One (there's no prior, so some players have unreasonably large uncertainties).

I wish Lawson would have stayed at Memphis. I really liked his trajectory as a stretch 4.....but his perimeter game has been swallowed up by Self's system.

He wasn't a great 3PT shooter but he was at least taking a decent number of them and trying to extend his range. Now I'm not sure what he is?

He's quite an interesting prospect if he starts making threes. Projects to be a pretty useful offensive player even with a -1.3 rating in perimeter offense, and his free throw percentage suggests he may have more potential in that area than his terrible three point shooting suggests.

 

[Nathan S]

TheStepien's shot charts are up (link)...here are the Duke guys (missing Kentucky game):

Williamson

Barrett

Reddish

And Bol (missing Iowa game)

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

RJ.... eeew

 

[Nathan S]

Hesitant to jump on the Brazdeikis bandwagon, but damn he's been good. Is he mid-first at this point? Higher?

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Hesitant to jump on the Brazdeikis bandwagon, but damn he's been good. Is he mid-first at this point? Higher?

I'd probably rank him in the early 20s right now if I were to guess. He's legit. He's old for his class so I would expect him to declare if he's projected as a first rounder around draft time. I don't think his shooting was supposedly his strong suit coming into college, but I could be wrong.

I've been most impressed with his slashing for sure. His defense has been solid, but I do expect his lack of length to start popping up as an issue more often.

I like Charles Matthews too as a possible late first rounder. Jon Teske is one of the best players in NCAA right now I'd say, but can't shoot and is too slow to be much of an NBA prospect. Michigan looks like a championship level team right now so it wouldn't surprise me if they have at least one first rounder this year.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Hesitant to jump on the Brazdeikis bandwagon, but damn he's been good. Is he mid-first at this point? Higher?

At his size, if he's a legit 6'7", I think he has to be. Both he and Poole have to be shooting up draft boards.

Really impressed with how Belein has adjusted his system on offense too. He's such a great coach. They run a lot of NBA on ball sets and it has really showcased the potential of both of those players.

It's also so refreshing to see wing prospects fall in to a system that implores guys to play defense.

Iggy per 40: 24.2 PPG, 7.3 REB, 1.9 AST, 1.3 STL
Advanced: 64.7% TS, 60.4% EFG, OBPM + 8.6, DBPM + 5.4, BPM +14

Those are genuinely absurd numbers for a Freshman wing. He has also just flashed a really nice mix of 3's and penetration.

Poole, through 47 college games has a nice 3 point rate for a near 40% shooter. He's averaging 8 3PT attempts per 40....and this year is shooting 45% on 4.7 attempts per game.

Poole per 40: 15.8 PPG, 5.3 REB, 2.7 AST, 0.7 STL
Advanced: 63.3% TS, 61.2% EFG, OBPM + 4.7, DBPM + 5.4, BPM +10.2

Pooles' numbers are crazy in the context of how slow his start was. He scored 3, 3, 7, 22, 4 points to start the year and has already climbed to nearly 16PPG per 40. In two games of conference play, he has a 140 offensive rating.

I really like both guys but Poole is just really intriguing to me because he's so twitchy. Iggy is a more refined / complete player right now but Poole is only 19, with a June birthday. He's only 3 months older than Reddish and will have 2 years of college tape. Steipen also has him at 13/20 from NBA range on the year.

Tie game, crunch time, this is such beautiful read, react and explosion.

 

[I'mWithDan]

RJ.... eeew

I'm actually more encouraged seeing his shot chart.

He's, by all accounts, a coachable player......eliminate those long mid range shots and his shooting goes up a level given his skillset.

Finishing well at the rim and the short mid range.....just needs to cut out long mid range shots and grow in to his extended NBA range.

 

[Derek]

I wish Lawson would have stayed at Memphis. I really liked his trajectory as a stretch 4.....but his perimeter game has been swallowed up by Self's system.

He wasn't a great 3PT shooter but he was at least taking a decent number of them and trying to extend his range. Now I'm not sure what he is?

He's also just not a very good shooter at the moment. Wasn't good at Memphis, and isn't good now. No reason for him to take volume low percentage shots when he's surrounded by the talent at Kansas.

Still, he's taking 1.6/game. I'm willing to bet if he were making better than 9% of them, they'd be trying to get him more looks out there.

 

[I'mWithDan]

He's also just not a very good shooter at the moment. Wasn't good at Memphis, and isn't good now. No reason for him to take volume low percentage shots when he's surrounded by the talent at Kansas.

Still, he's taking 1.6/game. I'm willing to bet if he were making better than 9% of them, they'd be trying to get him more looks out there.

He has nice form / motion.....and he's a 78% FT shooter....he has seen a steady increase there year over year. That indicates he has shooting potential but it's going to be tough to develop it if he's not even attempting to extend his range in games. His freshman year he was 35% on 2.4 per game but has really regressed.

 

[Derek]

He has nice form / motion.....and he's a 78% FT shooter....he has seen a steady increase there year over year. That indicates he has shooting potential but it's going to be tough to develop it if he's not even attempting to extend his range in games. His freshman year he was 35% on 2.4 per game but has really regressed.

His 80 attempts as a freshman is just an incredibly small sample size. It takes about 750 shots for the percentages to stabilize.

The sub-30% on 202 attempts from the college line is still a small sample size, but also more indicative of his overall abilities.

I just don't know how being at Memphis would help. If anything, being surrounded by more talent at Kansas should make things exponentially easier for Lawson when it comes to expanding his range, if he's capable.

 

[I'mWithDan]

His 80 attempts as a freshman is just an incredibly small sample size. It takes about 750 shots for the percentages to stabilize.

The sub-30% on 202 attempts from the college line is still a small sample size, but also more indicative of his overall abilities.

I just don't know how being at Memphis would help. If anything, being surrounded by more talent at Kansas should make things exponentially easier for Lawson when it comes to expanding his range, if he's capable.

My thought is that, typically, players who are outsized talents for their college team generally get far more leash as a player.

A good example of this is Cam at Duke. He's playing far fewer minutes than he would elsewhere and he's being pulled by K in situations where he'd be playing through mistakes on another team. He's also not being given the ability to consistently have the offense run through him.

I view Lawson the same way, to a lesser degree. At Memphis, he was given a bit more freedom in their offense. High post touches, high P&R touches, off the dribble shots / pullups......secondary and transition drives. There was far more variety in his game. At Kansas, he's basically just a low post scorer. 80% of his shots are short mid range and in. You see some flashes of what he was doing at Memphis but he's just not expanded his game on the perimeter like I think he is capable of doing......and it's unlikely he's going to do that in a system like Self's or on a team with that much talent.

From a skillset standpoint, he's an interesting prospect but I think he'll be harder to evaluate with how he's being used and he delayed his NBA clock by a year (transferring), simply to spend 12 months being used in a less than ideal way (for showcasing his NBA potential).

 

[Derek]

My thought is that, typically, players who are outsized talents for their college team generally get far more leash as a player.

A good example of this is Cam at Duke. He's playing far fewer minutes than he would elsewhere and he's being pulled by K in situations where he'd be playing through mistakes on another team. He's also not being given the ability to consistently have the offense run through him.

I view Lawson the same way, to a lesser degree. At Memphis, he was given a bit more freedom in their offense. High post touches, high P&R touches, off the dribble shots / pullups......secondary and transition drives. There was far more variety in his game. At Kansas, he's basically just a low post scorer. 80% of his shots are short mid range and in. You see some flashes of what he was doing at Memphis but he's just not expanded his game on the perimeter like I think he is capable of doing......and it's unlikely he's going to do that in a system like Self's or on a team with that much talent.

From a skillset standpoint, he's an interesting prospect but I think he'll be harder to evaluate with how he's being used and he delayed his NBA clock by a year (transferring), simply to spend 12 months being used in a less than ideal way (for showcasing his NBA potential).

Disagree. I think being at Kansas, and playing to his strengths is only helping him showcase his talents to NBA scouts.

 

[Dshuks]

Is Zion capable of scoring consistently outside of dunks and putbacks+ the occasional free throw?