2019 NBA Draft

[ajz20]

What, do you have sources in every front office now? Sure, 99% of the country has never seen a full Murray State game and only knows Morant from highlight reels. NBA front offices aren't necessarily that oblivious.

I'm not confident that Jones will go top-5. I think Zion has a 100% chance to go top-5, RJ has a 95% chance, Morant has a 60% chance, and no one else has more than a 20% chance. It all comes down to what teams are drafting and what their front offices value in a prospect.

How about this? Let’s do an nba jersey of the Cavs pick plus a 50 dollar donation to RCF? Simple bet Jones does or does not go top 5, since you claim he could easily go 4? Seems like a good way to end this!

 

[Nathan S]

How about this? Let’s do an nba jersey of the Cavs pick plus a 50 dollar donation to RCF? Simple bet Jones does or does not go top 5, since you claim he could easily go 4? Seems like a good way to end this!

You either didn't read my post, or you're deliberately misinterpreting me at this point...

 

[ajz20]

You either didn't read my post, or you're deliberately misinterpreting me at this point...

it goes back to the first post, you claimed all duke players could go top 4. You never backed off, despite me giving you several names of players that are projected to go ahead of Jones by multiple sites.
. Not wanting to do the bet leads me to believe you agree it is just not happening because nba talent evaluators are not going to place him as worthy of a top 5 selection. Honestly if you feel that strongly about Jones, why not take the bet? The site gets 50 bucks and if you are right you get a free jersey.
If you can’t afford the bet, then no problem . But you seem pretty hesitant to put your theory to the test.

 

[Nathan S]

it goes back to the first post, you claimed all duke players could go top 4. You never backed off, despite me giving you several names of players that are projected to go ahead of Jones by multiple sites.
. Not wanting to do the bet leads me to believe you agree it is just not happening because nba talent evaluators are not going to place him as worthy of a top 5 selection. Honestly if you feel that strongly about Jones, why not take the bet? The site gets 50 bucks and if you are right you get a free jersey.
If you can’t afford the bet, then no problem . But you seem pretty hesitant to put your theory to the test.

I'll try to be as clear as possible...I think there are 15-20 players who could go top-5 in this draft. Some more likely than others, of course, but the lack of a consensus outside of the top 2/3 is pretty noteworthy.

Since you like "experts" so much, I'll point out that Bilas recently called Jones "the best defender in the country." If an NBA team picking 4 or 5 feels similarly about him and values defense, there's no reason why he wouldn't be in play. And in case you weren't aware, he didn't exactly come out of nowhere...he was a consensus top-20 recruit in his class. Most sites had him neck-and-neck with Garland as the best PG in the class. If a front office liked him coming out of high school, they probably like him even more now.

 

[ajz20]

I'll try to be as clear as possible...I think there are 15-20 players who could go top-5 in this draft. Some more likely than others, of course, but the lack of a consensus outside of the top 2/3 is pretty noteworthy.

Since you like "experts" so much, I'll point out that Bilas recently called Jones "the best defender in the country." If an NBA team picking 4 or 5 feels similarly about him and values defense, there's no reason why he wouldn't be in play. And in case you weren't aware, he didn't exactly come out of nowhere...he was a consensus top-20 recruit in his class. Most sites had him neck-and-neck with Garland as the best PG in the class. If a front office liked him coming out of high school, they probably like him even more now.

But again my claim was simple, there is no way he is going top 4 and he won’t be drafted top 4. I think that is agreed upon by most if not all the people that watch and project these guys. Yes some drafts are better than others, and the guys I mentioned all have warts. But they are valued more then a probable future backup Pg who could be a decent starter if all things go his way.
But it seems like by re-reading you admitted you were not confident he could go top 4. So basically we are now in agreement Jones is not going top 4, and there is many reasons for that. Too bad you did not take the bet, that would have been one of the easiest bets in the history of RCF.

 

[Nathan S]

But again my claim was simple, there is no way he is going top 4 and he won’t be drafted top 4. I think that is agreed upon by most if not all the people that watch and project these guys. Yes some drafts are better than others, and the guys I mentioned all have warts. But they are valued more then a probable future backup Pg who could be a decent starter if all things go his way.
But it seems like by re-reading you admitted you were not confident he could go top 4. So basically we are now in agreement Jones is not going top 4, and there is many reasons for that. Too bad you did not take the bet, that would have been one of the easiest bets in the history of RCF.

Haha, ok, you "got me" or whatever

Some food for thought, though, before you go. In a lot of drafts, there's at least one "surprise" in the lottery. Last year it was Jerome Robinson, who was barely on the radar to be drafted at all this time last year. I'm arguing that due to the nature of this draft, we could get surprises this year not only in the late lottery, but probably in the mid lottery and maybe even in the top-5.

 

[ajz20]

Haha, ok, you "got me" or whatever

Some food for thought, though, before you go. In a lot of drafts, there's at least one "surprise" in the lottery. Last year it was Jerome Robinson, who was barely on the radar to be drafted at all this time last year. I'm arguing that due to the nature of this draft, we could get surprises this year not only in the late lottery, but probably in the mid lottery and maybe even in the top-5.

The funny thing is , it would not shock me at all for the Cavs to take Jones at 21. If that happens, you need to get his jersey take a selfie and use as your RCF avatar for years.

 

[Nathan S]

The funny thing is , it would not shock me at all for the Cavs to take Jones at 21. If that happens, you need to get jersey take a selfie and use as your RCF avatar for years.

Great year to have a pick in that range, IMO. I'll agree to do something ridiculous like that if we manage not to fuck it up.

 

[Ozone]

LOL trey Jones is not a lottery pick. he is however a very good college defender and a solid pg that will definitely get looks in the mid-late first round as a back up with the potential to possibly become a spot starter./

 

[Nathan S]

LOL trey Jones is not a lottery pick. he is however a very good college defender and a solid pg that will definitely get looks in the mid-late first round as a back up with the potential to possibly become a spot starter./

LOL at people who can't spell a prospect's name correctly trying to act like they know anything about him

 

[Smooth]

Perhaps this is a larger discussion about team building, but I do believe it relates to draft prospects, especially in the Cavs case since we do not have a core moving forward and the draft will (hopefully) provide that..

The one thing I've started to believe is in order to be a competent, successful franchise is you need your 2-3 best players to be very good two-way players... At worst, 2 of your top 3 or 3 of your top 4 to be successful two-way players..

Yes offense is en vogue and will continue to dominate the modern era, but the best teams still have good enough defenses and can get a stop when necessary...

We lived this out in the Cavs era, but if your top players aren't good two players, it's hard to hide them and the lack of attention to the defensive end, trickles down and the results come accordingly...

You look at any of the top teams: Raptors, Thunder, Warriors, Sixers, Bucks, Celtics, etc., their best players are all two-way players...

The only caveat is if you're not a two-way player, you have to be really damn good offensively (Kemba, Harden, Lillard, Kyrie, etc.) to overcome any defensive deficiency to become a core piece...

Even if you're a good or solid offensive player, but not good enough to make up for any lack of defensive ability, it kind of gets in no-man's land and it's hard to become a productive, core piece that way... Unfortunately, we're seeing that to an extent with Sexton right now...

I think that's why you've seen former top-10 picks like Kanter, Barnes, Turner, Monroe, Brandon Knight, Dion, Jabari, Julius Randle, Okafor, etc., kind of bounce around and not really find a true home/role because their offense never developed to the extent it covers for their defense...

Look at the NBA's top-40 players according to RPM wins: only 4 players have a negative DRPM, to which those are Curry (who can be a decent defender), Lillard, Kemba and Doncic (who might become one in time)... You guys have who hover around 0 but those guys are your truly elite offensive options, which largely upholds any value they have...

Go back to last year's RPM Wins top-40 and you have 8 players: LeBron, Lillard, Kemba, Durant, Middleton, DeRozan, Beal, Dinwiddie and Tobias Harris... In large part, we know Durant and LeBron can be very good defensive players, the effort just isn't consistently there at this point in their careers...

Regardless my point still stands: two-way players are very important, and probably even more so in today's game... And it's extremely important to be cognizant of this when drafting high and drafting potential "core" players...

So why does this matter?

I believe it's why Zion is far-and-away the best prospect, without a doubt, and why you might give pause to someone like RJ Barrett--unless you think his offensive potential is so far superior, it will vastly outweigh any defensive issues...

I'm still going through other prospects and what it would look like if the Cavs don't get Zion or, even if they do then how careful they need to be in shaping the core and using high value assets on certain player skillsets...

 

[I'mWithDan]

it goes back to the first post, you claimed all duke players could go top 4. You never backed off, despite me giving you several names of players that are projected to go ahead of Jones by multiple sites.

Jones probably wasn’t even considered a 1st round pick to start the year and the databases I am able to log in to have him ranked by scouts as the 15th best prospect now. That is a really big jump already and teams haven’t seen him play the back portion of the season or test, so who knows.

What Nathan was getting at was the volatility of 4-14 of this draft.

A good example of that is someone like Keldon Johnson. 7 different scouts have given him a draft slot between 6-17. Think about about how wildly different those grades are. 6 is typically a possible future all star grade, 17 is rotational player.

Kevin Porter is even more all over the map. He’s been given a slot grade of 5 and a slot grade of 24 by two different scouts.

Some of the guys you mentioned are similarly just all over the map too. I think this is the most fluid a draft has maybe ever been beyond the first 2 picks, which I am confident will be Zion and Barrett. Beyond that? Who the hell knows.

 

[Jake]

I don't follow the college guys like many of you do but watching Tre Jones this year shows me that kid has some skills. He looks smart and engaged. If he was available with that later first round pick we have, and we selected him, I wouldn't feel shortchanged.

 

[Nathan S]

If you want a concrete scenario for how Jones could end up in the top-5, just recall Mike Conley's 1-and-done career at Ohio State. Spent most of the season as a ~10ppg guy, passing the ball well and playing great defense but mostly living in Greg Oden's shadow. Then he had a series of great games in March Madness and rocketed up the boards.

It's not a perfect comparison, as Conley was a significantly better athlete, while Jones is a bit taller and may or may not have Conley's hidden scoring potential. But I think that's a realistic estimate for where his ceiling is.

 

[ajz20]

If you want a concrete scenario for how Jones could end up in the top-5, just recall Mike Conley's 1-and-done career at Ohio State. Spent most of the season as a ~10ppg guy, passing the ball well and playing great defense but mostly living in Greg Oden's shadow. Then he had a series of great games in March Madness and rocketed up the boards.

It's not a perfect comparison, as Conley was a significantly better athlete, while Jones is a bit taller and may or may not have Conley's hidden scoring potential. But I think that's a realistic estimate for where his ceiling is.

oh no! You should have quit while you changed the narrative to there are so many players that could go 3-5.
Now you are really really reaching with that comparison. You already admitted you dont see a realistic scenario for Jones to go top 4. You said you had little confidence it would happen. Jones is not a great prospect. He is not getting any taller, explosive or faster or more athletic between now and draft night. He is under sized and projects to be a role player who is probably going to spend significant time as backup PG, who could also start if a team is lacking talent at PG. Those guys never go top 5 because teams dont view that type of player as worthy of a high lottery pick. No one is saying the guy is trash but I have not seen one reputable site or basketball analyst say he is worthy of a top 4 pick. It is not going to happen because we pretty much know who he is. Solid college player, who will have to carve out a role as a rotational player, but teams look for projected all star talent in the top 4. He wont be taken there, plain and simple.

Now maybe you think he should go top 4, which you are entitled to believe. I highly doubt any team picking that high are going to agree with you with other prospects that have higher potential on the board.