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2019 NBA Draft

Discussion in 'Trades, Free Agency, & the Draft' started by Nathan S, Jun 26, 2018.

  1. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    First of all, I didn't change the narrative...that's been my narrative for like 3+ months now, lol.

    Secondly, I do think Jones could play his way into a top-5 pick depending on how the rest of the season goes. If he shows some scoring pop in the tournament while guys like Morant and Langford are sitting on their couches at home, he has lots of room to rise...if not, he'll probably end up going somewhere in the 15-25 range.

    Also don't get the knocks on his physique. He's got a great frame for a kid who just turned 19, and he has solid positional size at 6'3". Plenty of PGs with similar or worse physical tools have been All-Stars in recent years. If he fails to reach his ceiling it'll probably be because he never develops a respectable jumpshot, not because of a lack of athleticism.
     
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  2. ajz20

    ajz20 Draft Guru

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    He is not 6'3. He is "listed at 6'2" which is Duke kindly giving him an extra inch and a half. You said you could easily see him go top 4 earlier, then you admitted you had no confidence it was going to happen. Now that you are taking yourself into top 5, why not just take the bet? The site makes money, and you can prove everyone wrong who has him going in the 20 to 27 range. You wont take the bet because you know there the chances of him going top 4 are very very low (maybe 1 percent?)
    Again you might think he should go that high, but you are not going to find a lot of people that follow the draft who agree.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 10, 2019
  3. Lee

    Lee Gold Star Member

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    Don't be fooled by Jones. He is a good back up pg at best. Its easier to look good in college at pg when your team mates are the 3 best talents in college.

    Not to say jones is not an nba talent, but he is borderline 1st rounder not a lottery pick.
     
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  4. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    Being on a top team helps him and hurts him. On a typical team he wouldn't have a 5:1 assist:TO ratio, but he'd also be featured much more as a scorer...and I think his low scoring average is the main thing hurting his stock right now. Again, we're not talking about a random guy who stumbled into a fortunate situation; he was considered by many to be the top PG in his class.

    Right now his jumpshot is a questionmark, and that's (rightly) keeping him in the mid-late first round of mocks. If he shows significant progress there through the tournament, he'll have a strong case to be the best PG prospect in the draft thanks to his two-way potential.
     
  5. 1B4IGO

    1B4IGO Long Distance Sniper

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    That's my biggest issue with all the guys on Duke but when I think about it that's how it should be for some of the payers on a NBA team. Some might be a third or fourth option. But Duke doesn' play against teams that will have possibly 4 first rounders on their team. It's a very difficult evaluation.
     
  6. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    I'll preface this by say, this is ONE piece of information. So don't take it as gospel but I think it helps lead to more civil discussions on these topics......especially ones this fluid.

    This current database pulls the 4 most recent scouting evaluations on a player and based on that grade, polls them against aggregate mock draft ranks. This data hasn't updated since later January, so these ranks will likely change when it does.

    [​IMG]

    Anyway, as you can see, a lot of these evaluations are all over the map (mock draft vs. scout evals)......and there are a few prospects that scouts just really do not like that have consistently floated in the top 10 (Culver, Langford). Scouts view them both as lower ceiling players and Langford specially, is viewed by two scouts as simply a rotational wing (ouch).

    Morant, Little, Reddish and Hachimura are the four most polarizing guys in the top 10. They each got evals as top 5 picks, in addition to evals that are more late lottery players. Cam had the tightest dispersion, Little and Hachimura the loosest......which makes sense to me.

    Scouts also just don't like Doumbouya all that much. His best eval was mid 1st, his worst late 1st......maybe specific teams will like him more but he seems like a stay in Europe candidate pending a late surge.

    (4) players really stood out as scouts darlings vs. rankings lag amongst mock drafts.....those 4 players were NAW, Hayes, Jones and Williams....who all received at least (1) top 10 eval or better. It's kind of laughable that William's is specifically 30th in this aggregate sourcing.....but there are (2) sources that are torpedoing his ranking. 6-18 scout rank gives him a median of #12, which feels more realistic to me.

    Note: That is one of the better ways to view this chart......not to get hung up on the top or bottom number but to calculate the median. So if a dot is positioned in the middle of a prospects' rank range, it means they are (in most cases) appropriately ranked in mock drafts.....just considering range of outcomes.

    Anyway, again......this is more of just a thought exercise......keep an open mind when you watch and evaluate players......as the draft nears, typically these charts align but this is a weird year. And seeing guys like NAW, Jones, Williams, Hayes, etc. just have such wildly different ranges should underscore that there's going to be a ton of movement, certainly from 4-14.....and depending on what teams evaluate Morant, he seemingly could go a lot later than people are expecting him to.

    EDIT: Some of these also support discussions we have had in here......like is Garland a better prospect than Morant? Two scouts peg them as 1A and 1B, selection based on team preference / composition.....and Jones sneaks in just behind them. Cam or Little? Both have a similar upper range but Little carries a bit more bust potential.

    Just pointing these examples out to underscore that not everyone agrees here......scout to scout and in many cases, guys who professionally do this and make mock drafts sometimes wildly overrate or underrate players.....why? Because NBA scouting is really hard past the first 1-2 players of a draft.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
  7. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    Do you have these spreads for other guys? Would be particularly interested in Horton-Tucker, Ponds, and Claxton.

    EDIT: Oh yeah, maybe Goga too. They seem more aware than the mainstream about Doumbouya, so I wonder what they think about him.
     
  8. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    The consensus on Doumbouya was that he just doesn't have the combination of shooting / dribbling potential you need in a 3.....he actually lacks both right now.

    He's still young, certainly but he just has not really progressed as a shooter at all.....and it's tougher for him to efficiently score as a non shooter, ok FTR guy.

    His profile improved if you could project him to the PF position but he's a wiry, doughy kind of muscle build......maybe he can put on the necessary weight but that body type is a bit tougher to bet on.

    He is a really, really smooth athlete and that's why I think a lot of people just can't get past him not being a lotto pick......but if you consider how he would score at the next level, I just don't see it given how hard the 3 is to play in the NBA.

    I'll look at the other guys and try to post them later today or tomorrow.
     
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  9. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    Also think he's not the defensive monster people probably thought he was coming into the season. Per-40 averages of 6 defensive rebounds, 1 block, and 6 fouls don't bode well if people are expecting him to be a plus defender at PF in the NBA...and if he's just going to tread water on that end, he's a really unremarkable prospect.
     
  10. Ozone

    Ozone Rookie

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    so your point is grammar lessons are in order and a requirement for judgement via the eye test? ok gotcha
    Jones or whatever his name is could get overpicked in the late lottery given his defense is elite. The lack of high level athleticism and length make him less likely to be more than a career back up.
     
  11. Nathan S

    Nathan S 33 is the new 23

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    I invite you to look around the league at all the starting PGs...how many of them have elite length and athleticism? There are good reasons to be skeptical about Tre's NBA potential, but this isn't one of them.
     
  12. I'mWithDan

    I'mWithDan "Straight Cash Homie"

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    How do you define high level athlete? NBA scouts view it on both axis'......most fans view on one (Y).

    Jones is an incredibly high level athlete horizontally.....his side to side agility is about as good as it gets. His feet are on a string, they never cross, he has great anticipation and awareness and he competes really, really hard on defense. For a primary on ball defender and how much harder it is to generate steals on ball, his 2.6 STL per 40 are really good.

    And if you combine his AST% and STL%, he's in the upper quadrant of prospects and just has a mix of skills you really want in a lead guard (defense, passing, ability to play within himself). I do believe if he were a better shooter this season that he'd (today) be a top 10-12 pick....and he certainly could still go there.

    He also doesn't have bad shooting mechanics, which makes his general struggles shooting a little more head scratching.....but it is just on a really low volume of attempts, across the board....which makes sense, given his teammates. Some scouts think he has far better shooting potential than he has shown in college, based on his mechanics. He was also a mid 80's FT shooter in HS on a few hundred attempts and he was a 33% 3PT shooter over two HS seasons (200 attempts), so this season is maybe more of a blip shooting, when considering both numbers.

    I think a few of you overreacted to more of an off the cuff comment and are being far too negative in your evaluation of him. Tyus was a hair over 6'0......If Tre is his listed height and a bit longer, he's certainly a much better prospect than his brother.
     
  13. Ozone

    Ozone Rookie

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    Fair enough, but you are suggesting he is a top 10 pick which seems unreasonable with the likes of Ja Morant & Darius Garland both light years ahead of him offensively. Sure he could be a gem that becomes a high level starter, but nobody picks starter ceiling prospects in the top 10 with higher ceiling players at the same position still available. No, he is a key part of Duke's success, but his teammates are a key part of his success as well. I mean look at Ja Morant's assist numbers with teammates that have no chance of making a g-league team let alone the NBA.
     
  14. Ozone

    Ozone Rookie

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    All fair points, but Morant and Garland are ahead of him in pretty much every category except on ball defense against other small guards, so that alone pushes him down in draft positioning.
    The debate was about where he could go in the draft not what his skill level is in college or how it may or may not translate against better players. I like him as a prospect in the post lottery and no higher even with a small number of lead guards in this draft.
    I have Jerome and the combo guard White ahead of him as guard prospects that can translate their skill transparently and with little drop in production.
    I think his comp ceiling is Jevon Carter provided Jones improves his shooting efficiency and gets stronger
     
  15. Cavatt

    Cavatt Hall-of-Famer

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    So, when I see Grant Williams highlights he looks like an old school back to the basket guy. Is he a premier defender or something? He isn't big doesn't seem to have a slick handle or anything, but seems very strong. Is he a backup 4 or can he be more than that? I am just wondering what others are seeing here? Looks to me like he is just man strength out there and has a good touch around the basket? Why would we want a post up 4?
     

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