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2019 NBA Draft

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Nathan S said:
Speaking for myself, I think it's almost always foolish to bet on older prospects who're billed as "raw" and "developing". If you're in the lottery and you draft a guy who's gonna be 21/22+ on opening night, you should be confident that he's going to be more than a garbage buckets/energy guy from day 1.
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He’s gotten a lot of favorable scouting reviews.

I haven’t watched a minute of his film but his advanced stats are in the same quadrant as Zion in nearly every category and he has some shooting potential. All his scouting reports note how hard he plays too.

Again, haven’t watched him but when he started getting mentioned, I looked through his stuff and I can see why he’s starting to rise on advanced stats alone. It’s a wide open draft and I think teams are more willing than usual to draft players who are older. Guess we’ll see.
 
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I'mWithDan said:
He’s gotten a lot of favorable scouting reviews.

I haven’t watched a minute of his film but his advanced stats are in the same quadrant as Zion in nearly every category and he has some shooting potential. All his scouting reports note how hard he plays too.

Again, haven’t watched him but when he started getting mentioned, I looked through his stuff and I can see why he’s starting to rise on advanced stats alone. It’s a wide open draft and I think teams are more willing than usual to draft players who are older. Guess we’ll see.
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NBA teams seemed to have liked him for awhile now. He got invited to the combine last year, despite not really deserving it in most peoples' eyes in the public. He's made such a huge jump though defensively this year from what I've seen. He had pretty bad awareness his freshman year, and now is one of the better NCAA rim protectors. Usually that's not something you see a guy improve. Always had the size/athletic advantage - now it's playing up with the improved IQ.
 
I'mWithDan said:
He’s gotten a lot of favorable scouting reviews.

I haven’t watched a minute of his film but his advanced stats are in the same quadrant as Zion in nearly every category and he has some shooting potential. All his scouting reports note how hard he plays too.

Again, haven’t watched him but when he started getting mentioned, I looked through his stuff and I can see why he’s starting to rise on advanced stats alone. It’s a wide open draft and I think teams are more willing than usual to draft players who are older. Guess we’ll see.
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Not all advanced stats are a fan...my model has him around -1, more than 7 points below Zion. That's due in part to his age, but also affected by his poor assist:TO numbers, weak steal rate, and nonexistent 3-point shooting. I could imagine picking him in the 20's if eye-test reviews suggest that his scoring is likely to translate, but certainly not in the lottery...certainly not above guys like Williams and Washington who're the same age and way ahead of him in terms of actual on-court impact.
 
Nathan S said:
Not all advanced stats are a fan...my model has him around -1, more than 7 points below Zion. That's due in part to his age, but also affected by his poor assist:TO numbers, weak steal rate, and nonexistent 3-point shooting. I could imagine picking him in the 20's if eye-test reviews suggest that his scoring is likely to translate, but certainly not in the lottery...certainly not above guys like Williams and Washington who're the same age and way ahead of him in terms of actual on-court impact.
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His median scout rank is 13 right now. A lot can change but he was one of the big risers in the latest mid February updates.

Scouts like him as a rim running, rim protecting 5, which Williams and Washington are not. And if you do view him as a 5, the 3 listed weaknesses matter a bit less.

I’ll be curious to see what he does against Teske today. Think it’s a good 1 game sample to see what his offense is against an NBA level defender.
 
I'mWithDan said:
His median scout rank is 13 right now. A lot can change but he was one of the big risers in the latest mid February updates.

Scouts like him as a rim running, rim protecting 5, which Williams and Washington are not. And if you do view him as a 5, the 3 listed weaknesses matter a bit less.

I’ll be curious to see what he does against Teske today. Think it’s a good 1 game sample to see what his offense is against an NBA level defender.
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How valuable is a rim running, rim protecting 5 though? That seems like one of the easiest roles to fill in the NBA. I'd be more inclined to agree if he was an outlier shot-blocker (or otherwise showed signs of having a DPOY-level ceiling), but he's really not.

Agree that Fernando vs Teske is a fantastic matchup!
 
Nathan S said:
Very silly that he didn't make the Wooden Award midseason top-25. Wonder if the guys that do that even watch basketball.
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He is practically bust proof right? Like he is sure fire positive contributor in the league just based on his adv stats, no?
 
Sir'Dom Pointer said:
He is practically bust proof right? Like he is sure fire positive contributor in the league just based on his adv stats, no?
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My draft rater actually has him at +0.5, with a huge uncertainty of +/- 4.5. That's the 3rd-highest uncertainty of any rating this year, behind Zion and Morant, and basically reflects the fact that it's hard to tell (based on box score stats alone) whether or not his elite 2-point scoring will translate to the NBA.

With the addition of eye-test scouting, I think we can be more confident that he'll be a positive contributor...unlike most guys who shoot close to 70% on 2's, he actually does create a lot of his own offense, and he does have range outside of the restricted area. I was lukewarm on him earlier this year, but now he's on the short list of guys I'd consider drafting with the Rockets' pick.
 
Looking forward to Tennessee vs Kentucky today.

Tennessee hasn’t played anyone notable in weeks.
 
Nathan S said:
How valuable is a rim running, rim protecting 5 though? That seems like one of the easiest roles to fill in the NBA. I'd be more inclined to agree if he was an outlier shot-blocker (or otherwise showed signs of having a DPOY-level ceiling), but he's really not.

Agree that Fernando vs Teske is a fantastic matchup!
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13 would seem about right to me if he is viewed as a Steven Adams type player. A good, quality starter at the end of the lottery is a nice get for a fringe playoff team. Some team could probably overdraft him if he kills shooting drills.

I wish he was given more opportunities to shoot in game. I don’t watch Maryland at all but it is strange as offenses have evolved that a big who shoots 75% from the line would not be given in game opportunies at the elbow or behind the line. Makes it a lot tougher to think about what his ceiling is.
 
I'mWithDan said:
13 would seem about right to me if he is viewed as a Steven Adams type player. A good, quality starter at the end of the lottery is a nice get for a fringe playoff team. Some team could probably overdraft him if he kills shooting drills.

I wish he was given more opportunities to shoot in game. I don’t watch Maryland at all but it is strange as offenses have evolved that a big who shoots 75% from the line would not be given in game opportunies at the elbow or behind the line. Makes it a lot tougher to think about what his ceiling is.
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Fair point...i think i remember him doing well in pre-draft shooting drills last year, fwiw. Teske's a sub-60% foul shooter and he somehow has the green light to shoot open 3's. If he could make those he'd be a legit prospect.
 
At this rate, could Culver fall to the Rockets pick??
 
Noted yesterday that Diallo leads his team in points, rebounds, assists and steals...well, Nic Claxton is leading Georgia in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks! One of the most difficult players to evaluate as Georgia has no point guard to run their offense, so he's forced into an awkward point-forward role.
 
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