2019 NFL offseason thread

[Surge]

Has the 4th and 15 replacing onside kicks rule been discussed in here? I can't believe this could even possibly happen. It would be such a gimmick. I am curious how others feel about it.

Supposedly, 4th and 15 has been converted 23% of the time since 2000. If I am losing, I'd go for it every single time. It just seems ridiculous to me. Why punish the team that is winning the game by giving the opponent such a high percentage chance at getting the ball back again?

Can you imagine losing a game like this....

Up 13 with 4 minutes left. Dominated the entire game. Give up a late TD. Normally, it would not matter much because you'd recover the onside kick and the game is over/very likely over. Instead, the opponent goes for 4th and 15 and converts because of a bogus pass interference or hands to the face penalty (seems like this would be a GREAT rule for rigging games if you believe in that kind of thing). Opponent gets the ball. Goes down and scores and the game is over. You lose.

It just doesn't feel right to me. Yes, to a random observer, it would make games more exciting because there is a more likely chance of big comebacks late in games... But if you are talking about what is actually "fair" and "pure to the game," it just feels insane. It's a gimmick you'd see in the XFL or Arena League.

Is the rule official?

If it is, they also need to make penalties like illegal contact (which is ticky tack but 5 yards and an automatic-first down) not automatic first downs.

This rule just seems to support more scoring and keeping games closer. A team down 30 at halftime could theoretically play offense the entire second half and come back.

 

[Lee]

Has the 4th and 15 replacing onside kicks rule been discussed in here? I can't believe this could even possibly happen. It would be such a gimmick. I am curious how others feel about it.

Supposedly, 4th and 15 has been converted 23% of the time since 2000. If I am losing, I'd go for it every single time. It just seems ridiculous to me. Why punish the team that is winning the game by giving the opponent such a high percentage chance at getting the ball back again?

Can you imagine losing a game like this....

Up 13 with 4 minutes left. Dominated the entire game. Give up a late TD. Normally, it would not matter much because you'd recover the onside kick and the game is over/very likely over. Instead, the opponent goes for 4th and 15 and converts because of a bogus pass interference or hands to the face penalty (seems like this would be a GREAT rule for rigging games if you believe in that kind of thing). Opponent gets the ball. Goes down and scores and the game is over. You lose.

It just doesn't feel right to me. Yes, to a random observer, it would make games more exciting because there is a more likely chance of big comebacks late in games... But if you are talking about what is actually "fair" and "pure to the game," it just feels insane. It's a gimmick you'd see in the XFL or Arena League.

So we have 2 choices, let our game die or except some changes for safety. Onside kick is going away, period. It just isn't safe. Before the changes, it was converted about 15% of the time. They need to figure what down and distance works for the same 15%.....is it 4th and 20 then?

Either way, its a decent solution to add excitement for a team that is down and trying to get back in the game. I agree 23% is too high, so like I said make it 4th and 20 and that seems fair.

 

[Gimme Some Mo]

Is the rule official?

If it is, they also need to make penalties like illegal contact (which is ticky tack but 5 yards and an automatic-first down) not automatic first downs.

This rule just seems to support more scoring and keeping games closer. A team down 30 at halftime could theoretically play offense the entire second half and come back.

No, its not official but it seems to be picking up steam unfortunately.

 

[Jack Brickman]

If they do go with that rule, they need to make any penalties reviewable for that play.

 

[Gimme Some Mo]

So we have 2 choices, let our game die or except some changes for safety. Onside kick is going away, period. It just isn't safe. Before the changes, it was converted about 15% of the time. They need to figure what down and distance works for the same 15%.....is it 4th and 20 then?

Either way, its a decent solution to add excitement for a team that is down and trying to get back in the game. I agree 23% is too high, so like I said make it 4th and 20 and that seems fair.

I just can't get behind giving losing teams these extra advantages to try to come back and win.

This would feel similar to letting NBA teams shoot a 10 point half court shot in the 4th quarter when they're losing.


I see what you're saying about finding the percentages where itd equal 15%. I'd be more open to 4th and 20. I still just don't like that a simple minor penalty could give them the conversion.

I wonder what the conversion percentage of 4th and 15 is for great offenses like the Saints, Pats, Chiefs, etc. I'd have to imagine it's even higher than 23%

 

[Jack Brickman]

I just can't get behind giving losing teams these extra advantages to try to come back and win.

This would feel similar to letting NBA teams shoot a 10 point half court shot in the 4th quarter when they're losing.


I see what you're saying about finding the percentages where itd equal 15%. I'd be more open to 4th and 20. I still just don't like that a simple minor penalty could give them the conversion.

I wonder what the conversion percentage of 4th and 15 is for great offenses like the Saints, Pats, Chiefs, etc. I'd have to imagine it's even higher than 23%

I mean, how often do you actually go for it on 4th and 20? Or even 4th and 15? Feel like a lot of these numbers are going to be a victim of small sample size because they rarely ever happen.

 

[Gimme Some Mo]

I mean, how often do you actually go for it on 4th and 20? Or even 4th and 15? Feel like a lot of these numbers are going to be a victim of small sample size because they rarely ever happen.

Good point. I think the conversion percentage would actually go up on this because teams would actually prepare for this scenario 100x more often than in the past because of the importance of it.

This also gives certain teams a bigger advantage than others. There are obviously certain teams that are much more likely to convert a 4th and 15 due to their personnel at QB and WR. This punishes teams that don't have the same downfield capabilities as others.

 

[chrisrich91]

View: https://twitter.com/mysportsupdate/status/1110632517131010048?s=21


Jeez...talk about a behind-the-scenes look.

Antonio Brown is crazy.

 

[FiveThous]

Good point. I think the conversion percentage would actually go up on this because teams would actually prepare for this scenario 100x more often than in the past because of the importance of it.

This also gives certain teams a bigger advantage than others. There are obviously certain teams that are much more likely to convert a 4th and 15 due to their personnel at QB and WR. This punishes teams that don't have the same downfield capabilities as others.

Good thing we have Baker and Monken and won't have to worry about being in 4th and 15s/20s

 

[Hurl Bruce]

Lame!

View: https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1110597810007744513

 

[col63onel]

What happens when a team fails to catch a kickoff? Can the kicking team still recover it if the receiving team doesn't? Isn't that technically an onside kick?

 

[Sebastian]

View: https://twitter.com/mysportsupdate/status/1110632517131010048?s=21


Jeez...talk about a behind-the-scenes look.

Antonio Brown is crazy.

AB with the Pats would have been decidedly unpleasant for the rest of the League. Presuming Brady could still get the ball to him.

The Eagles would be dangerous too if Wentz can stay healthy.

He would have been wasted in TEN. I don't take much stock in Mr. Mariota.

 

[macbdog]

What happens when a team fails to catch a kickoff? Can the kicking team still recover it if the receiving team doesn't? Isn't that technically an onside kick?

Of course. That rule doesn't have to go away to prevent onside kicks- simply add another rule that a kickoff has to go X number of yards or receiving team automatically receives the ball at the 50.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Well Russel Wilson just got paid.

4 years 140 million, 65 million bonus.

If baker is as good as we all think that's going to be his ball park

 

[Jordan]

Well Russel Wilson just got paid.

4 years 140 million, 65 million bonus.

If baker is as good as we all think that's going to be his ball park

Unfortunately for the Browns, if this strike next year actually happens, Baker’s contract will probably be bigger.

Also, I know I’m higher on analytics than most and I could be totally wrong, but I think Russell Wilson is worth every penny. He’s one of the five best NFL QBs and has shown incredible versatility.

View: https://twitter.com/cole_kev/status/1117834830937501708?s=21


QB contributes more to wins than any other position in team sports. The money is huge and makes team building challenging, but still, I think the Seahawks had to make this deal.