http://toledoblade.typepad.com/falconfodder/2012/03/bg-mens-hoops-a-look-at-the-mac-tournament.html
1) AKRON (12-3): The Zips claim the top spot if they finish with a win at Kent State OR if Buffalo loses its final game at home against Bowling Green. The only way Buffalo moves into the top seed is if Akron loses AND the Bulls win.
2) BUFFALO (11-4): The Bulls wrap up AT LEAST the second seed with a victory over Bowling Green Saturday night. As mentioned above, there is a way they can sneak into the top spot. Buffalo CAN fall into the third spot (or the fourth spot, I believe) but no lower, so the Bulls have secured some type of bye. Falling out of the top two spots requires a Buffalo loss AND an Ohio win at Miami (the Bobcats swept the season series). Kent State also could tie the Bulls, but UB wins that tiebreaker by virtue of its regular-season sweep with Akron. A three-way tie between Ohio, Buffalo and Kent State also goes to Ohio.
3) OHIO (10-5): First, the Bobcats could get the second seed with a win at Miami and a Buffalo loss at home to Bowling Green (OU swept two games with UB). The Bobcats are tied with Kent State (as you will see in a moment), and the two teams split during the regular season, but Ohio would with the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Golden Flashes either because of their sweep of Buffalo (if both teams win Saturday) or its split with Akron (if both teams lose Saturday). If both teams lose, wins by Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green would muddy the waters. Ohio is 0-1 vs. EMU and 1-1 vs. BG, and EMU also beat BG, so a tie involving EMU, Ohio and BG strongly favors the Eagles (in fact, if EMU wins and both OU and KSU lose, the Eagles vault into this spot).
4) KENT STATE (10-5): As mentioned before, KSU can't pass Ohio unless the Golden Flashes win and the Bobcats lose. In that instance, KSU is the third seed (the Flashes can't beat UB on tiebreakers). If Kent State wins, they are no worse than the fourth seed. If the Golden Flashes lose, the results of Eastern Michigan at Toledo and Bowling Green at Buffalo matter. Kent State wins a head-to-head tiebreaker with Eastern Michigan and Bowling Green (based on its win over Eastern Michigan).
5) EASTERN MICHIGAN (9-6): The Eagles can finish no lower than the sixth seed, and the only way that happens is if EMU loses at Toledo AND Bowling Green wins at Buffalo. If both Ohio and Kent State win, the Eagles are the fifth seed. As mentioned above, EMU wins a tiebreaker with Ohio and Bowling Green and loses a tiebreaker with Kent State. Eastern Michigan can (believe it or not) earn the third seed if Ohio AND Kent State lose AND EMU wins AND Bowling Green wins. The BG win is important, because in that four-way tiebreaker EMU has a 2-1 record (66.7 percent), while Kent State is 3-2 (60 percent). Ties are broken on winning percentage, not number of wins.
6) BOWLING GREEN (9-6): The Falcons can finish no lower than sixth. The only way BG can finish higher is if the Falcons win in Buffalo AND Eastern Michigan loses at Toledo, in which case BG would leapfrog the Eagles into the fifth seed. No matter what Saturday's result is, the Falcons will host a first-round game at the Stroh Center on Monday, March 5 at 7 p.m. Click here to visit a splash page with details about tickets for that tournament game.
7) TOLEDO (6-9): The Rockets would claim this spot with a victory, no matter what else happens in the league (the only team that could tie them is Western Michigan, and UT wins the tiebreaker based on its victory over Ohio). If Toledo loses and Western Michigan wins, the Broncos claim this spot. Otherwise, I believe Toledo wins every other tiebreaker (the possibilities involve WMU, BSU and MU, as well as combinations of those schools), so the Rockets can finish no lower than eighth.
8) WESTERN MICHIGAN (6-9): Clear as mud so far, right? ... The only way the Broncos vault into the seventh spot is if they win at home against Central Michigan AND Toledo loses at home to Eastern Michigan. If WMU loses, they still are the eighth seed if Ball State AND Miami both lose. In terms of tiebreakers, Western would win a tie with Miami (head-to-head victory), and with Ball State (presuming Miami finishes ahead of Central Michigan, WMU wins the tiebreaker).
9) MIAMI (5-10): The RedHawks are tied with Ball State, as you will see in a moment. If the two teams remain tied, Miami's head-to-head win gives them the tiebreaker. The RedHawks lose tiebreakers with Toledo and Western Michigan, so I do no believe they can earn a first-round tournament home game. If the RedHawks lose AND Ball State loses AND Central Michigan loses, that favors Ball State (2-1 record because of sweep over CMU; Miami is 1-1, CMU is 1-2) in ninth place and Miami in 10th.
10) BALL STATE (5-10): You've almost made it. ... In terms of moving up with losses by Toledo AND/OR Western Michigan, the Cardinals lose a tie with Toledo and presumably lose a tie with Western Michigan. I don't believe Ball State can move higher than ninth, which would happen with a BSU win AND a Miami loss. Good news (sort of): The Cards can finish no lower than 10th.
11) CENTRAL MICHIGAN (4-11): It's a little tricky, but I do not believe the Chippewas can finish anywhere but 11th. To find out why they can't go lower, read Northern Illinois below. As for a situation where CMU wins, the Chippewas need Miami AND/OR Ball State to lose, and CMU lost once to the RedHawks and twice to the Cardinals, so the Chips can't win those tiebreakers, either.
12) NORTHERN ILLINOIS (3-12): Congrats on reaching the finish line! I'll reward you with an easy one. ... There is no way for the Huskies to surpass Central Michigan, since a tiebreaker (which would come with a Northern Illinois win AND a Central Michigan loss) still favors the Chippewas, who swept NIU during the regular season.
