What're your thoughts on this? I know some people who think quantum computers are just a few years away, and some people who think they're decades away and the first real quantum computers will look nothing like the prototypes people are building today.
Referring to purely quantum computers for computation (not hybrids that use small sets of qubits mixed with classical computational models), it's an interesting question to ask.
Had you asked me this two years ago, I would've told you we probably 15-20 years out from quantum computers being functional machines that can break relatively strong cryptographically secure communications.
But there have been a flurry of successive improvements in the field, actual machines developed, tested, and demonstrated to the public, basically every 6 months.
We went from a 5-qubit system in 2016 to a 50-qubit system at the Consumer Electronics Show. So in roughly 12 months, they increased the number of qubits available by an order of magnitude. And I'm sure you know that this is not a linear increase in computing power, but an exponential one.
However, with that being said, it's exceptionally difficult to determine the path ahead of us and to really know how far away we are from a 1,000-5,000 complex qubit system that could really do damage. Perhaps it really is only 5 years away? Maybe 10.. Maybe not.
But what we can be sure about is that it is on the horizon.... These won't be computers you can just walk out and buy at Microcenter; but, they will break most commonly used cryptographic systems based around RSA-128/256 and AES-128/192 and likely 256 in short-order.
Bitcoin, in it's present implementation, is likely done for sooner than AES-128 because of how Bitcoin hashes are generated which allows for deterministic attack vectors; i.e., attacking how a person creates their wallet from deterministic data sources like passphrases or random key strokes.