Eagles 1st round pick watch

[Kovah]

So with the Browns winning and the 49ers currently shitting the bed, what's the best outcome with this Eagle's pick?

 

[AZ_]

.

 

[ajz20]

Jesus Christ man, it's LESS THAN...

I'll try to slow down...

-I don't think the 9-11th QB's are necessarily game managers at all (this means that I am agreeing with you; in fact I never made a claim to the contrary) AND
-I don't think that, of those 9-11th best QBs in the league who were drafted in the 1st round, any of them were drafted with the hope of them being the 9-11th best QB in the league. Those drafted in the 1st round were picked where they were with the hope that they had the potential to crack the top 5 AND
-I agree that there are plenty of non top 5 QBs who have won the SB and been vital to teams' success. In your first post, this was some point you were making, saying you didn't agree at all, when I never claimed otherwise.

Then you bring up Flacco, who is on pace for a 4300 yard season, and the very team that drafted him thought he was neck-and-neck with Matt Ryan, but critically, thought he had a higher upside than Matt Ryan. I don't see how that helps your point. Then you brought up Eli, who was drafted 1st, meaning he was drafted with the intention of cracking the top 5 of NFL QBs.

This isn't even a strong position by me, but you're welcome to dig in, again, against points that I didn't make...

Now for your only good point, which was really @GreasySpread36 's point, although I disagree with it: "If you deem a prospect as having a chance to develop into a clear above average starter who is good enough to win championships with given a solid supporting cast then he is well worth a first rounder."

Nobody has a chance (unknown probability) to develop into a clear (definite) above average starter. There's just these young kids that you have to feel damn good about to take them in the 1st round, and the real reason I disagree with this point is that it's unrealistic. OF COURSE, if you can look backward and say instead of Weeden, I'll take (insert 10th best QB in NFL now), OF COURSE you do that. It just doesn't work like that. At all.

It's just game theory: (very very simplified here but) you have 22 starting positions to fill. If a team had the 18th pick in the draft, in round one, would you think that their expectations are to end up with a guy who doesn't have a CHANCE to crack the top 5 at his position?!? Same goes with the 28th pick.

So then you are left with Greasy's point - QB is so important that you'll gladly take a middle-of-the-pack NFL QB with the 1st pick. It still doesn't make sense. You would take that QB, but before that QB was drafted, he was just a projection, and that projection had a room full of draft experts and coaches thinking that he had a CHANCE to be a top 5 QB. If it didn't, then they shouldn't have used a first round pick on him.

Correct me if I am wrong but my point of contention is the idea that a qb not expected to be a top 5 qb someday is not worth a pick in anywhere in the first round correct? Did you not claim thAt if an organization does not deem a qb as a future top 5 player than he is not worthy of a first round selection? I don't think realistically many teams expect the qb to become a top 5 player unless they are taking him with the first or second pick in a really good qb class. I think for example when Pitt took Rothlesburger they thought he would be in the top half of the league maybe top 10 but I doubt they were confident he would be as good as he turned out given his small school resume and question marks coming in. If I can get a qb who I think has top 10 to 15 potential as a range and I have a hole at qb I am running to the podium unless I am passing up some hall of fame talent. I don't need to to be confident that he can become a top 5 qb as an apex when qb is such an important position to fill. When you have a chance to take a qb with some promise who can be the guy for 15 years I think you take him. That to me is well worth a first rounder. You don't want to draft a qb just because you need one, but if you believe he can be the starter for over decade and help you win big games in January I say take him.

 

[I'mWithDan]

So with the Browns winning and the 49ers currently shitting the bed, what's the best outcome with this Eagle's pick?

Browns got some more help today.

Zona unexpectedly beat Seattle to move ahead of Philly at (6-8-1).

New Orleans also beat the Bucs to get to (7-8).

If I'm not too drunk, that slots it at #9 right now. If the Eagles lose next week, that's the lowest the pick could be.

Absolute Armageddon is I think #14 if Philly got to 7-9 and then the 5 or so teams ahead of them at 7-8 all lost.

Best case is #7. Carolina and Cinci could still leapfrog them if Philly loses next week and they both win.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Adding to the post above, with a week to go, we are cheering for:

Carolina
Cincinnati
Arizona
Buffalo
Indy
Minnesota
New Orleans

Browns centric view from a schedule perspective couldn't be much better.

Indy gets Jax at home.
Zona gets the Rams on the road.
Minnesota gets Chicago at home
Buffalo get the Jets on the road

4 of the 7 teams the Browns want to win play awful opponents. If just those 4 win, it will likely be a top 10 pick, even with a Philly win.

 

[Sebastian]

Honestly you fucked yourself over in fantasy by picking him.

11th Round so the level of fucked over is minimal, but he certainly didn't help. I also have OBJ who, despite Manning's shortcomings, is still having a great season. Beyond that I stream whichever QB is playing the Browns if there is an unfavorable match-up for the Giants.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Our cheering check list:

If Eagles lose (6-10)...

Bengals - Win
Panthers - Win

That would push the pick to #8.

If Eagles win (7-9)...

Cardinals - Win
Bills - Win
Colts - Win
Vikings - Win
Saints - Win

That would keep the pick at #10.

Each loss by any team on this list pushes the pick down in either scenario.

Best case (loss): #8
Worst case (win): #15

Crazy the amount of value this pick can shift today with a Philly win.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Our cheering check list:

If Eagles lose (6-10)...

Bengals - Win
Panthers - Win

That would push the pick to #8.

If Eagles win (7-9)...

Cardinals - Win
Bills - Win
Colts - Win
Vikings - Win
Saints - Win

That would keep the pick at #10.

Each loss by any team on this list pushes the pick down in either scenario.

Best case (loss): #8
Worst case (win): #15

Crazy the amount of value this pick can shift today with a Philly win.

Its pretty unlikey the pick goes to 8. Bengals are injury decimated and sitting players they have left, while ravens are playing their starters.

Also carolina is playing the bucs who are playing for playoffs

 

[Kovah]

Its pretty unlikey the pick goes to 8. Bengals are injury decimated and sitting players they have left, while ravens are playing their starters.

Also carolina is playing the bucs who are playing for playoffs

Panthers currently winning. Bengals up on Ravens. Also, Romo looking good Cowboys up 10-3.

 

[Omar The Horse]

10-10

 

[Kovah]

Can someone explain why they put Romo in to lead a TD drive, then bench him for butt-fumble?

 

[Pick6]

Can someone explain why they put Romo in to lead a TD drive, then bench him for butt-fumble?

Jerry wants to protect his assets.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Can someone explain why they put Romo in to lead a TD drive, then bench him for butt-fumble?

I don't known but it is pretty frustrating from a Browns centric standpoint.

Sanchez absolutely sucks and it is pretty unlikely they're going to beat Philly with him.

Dallas needs a special teams or defensive TD having given up the TD at the end of the half.

 

[I'mWithDan]

This isn't going well for the Browns.

Colts and Bills both laying eggs and the Cowboys doing everything in their power to let Philly win.

 

[Lee]

This isn't going well for the Browns.

Colts and Bills both laying eggs and the Cowboys doing everything in their power to let Philly win.

As in play Sanchez over Romo?