FANTASY FOOTBALL 2017

[Jack Brickman]

So, what's the recipe for success in a 12 team league?

There is no set recipe for success in fantasy football. The wrong two players getting hurt can derail any fantasy season for any player, regardless of how smart with his draft picks. My general strategy in a re-draft league is to just try to take the BPA at any given point. If you're in a position to draft David Johnson, you don't pass him up because you went in planning on doing a "zero RB" strat. Take what the draft gives you.

Further, I've found that wasting draft spots on developmental players is just a failing strategy in re-draft. If there's a guy on the board who averages 12 points a game, it's probably a good idea to take him over an unproven rookie, no matter the pedigree. In re-draft, you're always looking to win this year, and so taking dart throws isn't really an effective strategy. Yes, you can get lucky and get a guy like OBJ who is a WR1 in his rookie year, but it's far more likely you'll be getting Kevin White or Josh Doctson who give you nothing as a rookie, which just wastes a draft spot. I'd be far more inclined to take a rookie RB than a rookie WR, as rookie RBs, provided they have an opportunity, are much more likely to give you startable production in their rookie year than a WR.

Also, don't even bother drafting rookie TEs. I know they might seem enticing, but it's almost a guarantee that guys like Howard and Njoku will not be startable TEs in their rookie years, as damn near no TEs produce enough to start in their rookie years. It's possible one of those guys is the outlier, but I'd prefer to let another team take that chance while guys like Ebron (whose team just lost the WR who got all the red zone action last year, meaning there is opportunity there) are still available.

 

[Triplethreat]

There is no set recipe for success in fantasy football. The wrong two players getting hurt can derail any fantasy season for any player, regardless of how smart with his draft picks. My general strategy in a re-draft league is to just try to take the BPA at any given point. If you're in a position to draft David Johnson, you don't pass him up because you went in planning on doing a "zero RB" strat. Take what the draft gives you.

Further, I've found that wasting draft spots on developmental players is just a failing strategy in re-draft. If there's a guy on the board who averages 12 points a game, it's probably a good idea to take him over an unproven rookie, no matter the pedigree. In re-draft, you're always looking to win this year, and so taking dart throws isn't really an effective strategy. Yes, you can get lucky and get a guy like OBJ who is a WR1 in his rookie year, but it's far more likely you'll be getting Kevin White or Josh Doctson who give you nothing as a rookie, which just wastes a draft spot. I'd be far more inclined to take a rookie RB than a rookie WR, as rookie RBs, provided they have an opportunity, are much more likely to give you startable production in their rookie year than a WR.

Also, don't even bother drafting rookie TEs. I know they might seem enticing, but it's almost a guarantee that guys like Howard and Njoku will not be startable TEs in their rookie years, as damn near no TEs produce enough to start in their rookie years. It's possible one of those guys is the outlier, but I'd prefer to let another team take that chance while guys like Ebron (whose team just lost the WR who got all the red zone action last year, meaning there is opportunity there) are still available.

I agree with the rookie TE take normally. However this year was an absolute outlier when it comes to talent at the TE position in the draft.

I like the amount of opportunity that Njoku is going to get. More than that, I love the situation that Howard and Engram are in.

I will take a rookie TE later on the draft while stock piling RB/WR. If it comes down to it, you can always swing a trade of WR/RB to a team that has multiple starting worthy TE's.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I agree with the rookie TE take normally. However this year was an absolute outlier when it comes to talent at the TE position in the draft.

I like the amount of opportunity that Njoku is going to get. More than that, I love the situation that Howard and Engram are in.

I will take a rookie TE later on the draft while stock piling RB/WR. If it comes down to it, you can always swing a trade of WR/RB to a team that has multiple starting worthy TE's.

Loving the situation is different from thinking they will produce in year one. Historically, that just doesn't happen except for the rarest of outliers like Gronk and Graham. Yes, it's possible that Howard, Njoku, or Engram could be one of those outliers, but I'm not betting a mid-round draft pick on it in a re-draft league, and that's probably where Howard and Njoku will be taken by people who don't know that rookie TEs almost never produce in fantasy.

As far as Njoku goes, all indications are that DeValve will be the starting TE for the Browns this year. I'd predict him to have a breakout season this year over Njoku because I think he'll be given more opportunity. Njoku will be brought along slowly just like DeValve was last year. He's a guy I'd target in two years more so than this one in non-dynasty formats.

 

[Real Deal]

In a little dispute whether we should let ESPN randomize the draft order 1 hour before or have a website randomize it and shoot out emails simultaneously.

What do you guys prefer? To know your pick a week or 2 in advance or 1 hour and work fast?

 

[Jack Brickman]

In a little dispute whether we should let ESPN randomize the draft order 1 hour before or have a website randomize it and shoot out emails simultaneously.

What do you guys prefer? To know your pick a week or 2 in advance or 1 hour and work fast?

If it's a re-draft league I don't think it really matters since you don't see picks traded very often in that format.

I'd just do a league vote, majority wins. Not everyone will be happy, but that's the fairest way to do it.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Just finishing up a 12-team, .5 PPR, dynasty superflex league. Starting line-ups are 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, 1SFLEX, 4FLEX. 30-man rosters. I had the tenth pick and it was a snake draft.

Roster (probable starters in bold):

QB - Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Colin Kaepernick

RB - Joe Mixon, Mark Ingram, Ty Montgomery, Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson, Jonathan Williams, Branden Oliver, Brian Hill, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, Matt Breida

WR - Michael Thomas, TY Hilton, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Marqise Lee, Kenny Golladay, Breshad Perriman, Pharoh Cooper

TE - Kyle Rudolph, Seth DeValve, George Kittle, Adam Shaheen

Still got three picks left, but probably going to use them primarily on back-up QBs since there aren't really any players of significance left at this point at the other positions.

Overall, pretty happy with this team. I have one of the best QB duos in the league, along with Goff, who I expect to be much improved this season under a new, competent head coach. I've got four starting caliber WRs, along with a few that have a lot of potential. If Mixon pans out, I could have a really great RB line-up too, and I took fliers on guys like Mack, Jones, Breida, and Hill, all of whom could take larger roles on their teams if given an opportunity. I also expect Poopdick to make the jump this year if healthy, as the Browns have been talking non-stop about getting him more touches. TE was mostly an afterthought, but Rudolph was a great late bargain. He was one of the top fantasy TEs last year (third in this league's scoring) and plays in an offense where the TE will be seeing a lot of volume from a game managing QB. I also think DeValve is likely to win the starting role for the Browns this year while they bring Njoku along slowly. Kittle and Shaheen are just lottery tickets. Probably won't pan out, but I wasn't able to grab either Njoku or Howard and I wanted to take fliers on at least one rookie TE with potential.

I also feel I got a nice balance of youth and veterans along with enough depth to compensate for some injuries.

 

[Triplethreat]

Loving the situation is different from thinking they will produce in year one. Historically, that just doesn't happen except for the rarest of outliers like Gronk and Graham. Yes, it's possible that Howard, Njoku, or Engram could be one of those outliers, but I'm not betting a mid-round draft pick on it in a re-draft league, and that's probably where Howard and Njoku will be taken by people who don't know that rookie TEs almost never produce in fantasy.

As far as Njoku goes, all indications are that DeValve will be the starting TE for the Browns this year. I'd predict him to have a breakout season this year over Njoku because I think he'll be given more opportunity. Njoku will be brought along slowly just like DeValve was last year. He's a guy I'd target in two years more so than this one in non-dynasty formats.

That's just not a strategy I can get behind in season long re-draft.

You want to get these guys way ahead of the curve, and before they breakout to get the most value out of the pick.

I don't see any rookie tight end to be taken before the 10th-12th round with maybe the exception of Howard. That is where I will target these guys, and if they're not there I'll move on.

Tight end is an extremely hard position to project, but in my experience it's taking a shot like this and it paying off that leads to championships. I guess to each their own, because there are 5,000 different way to build a championship caliber fantasy football team.

 

[Jack Brickman]

That's just not a strategy I can get behind in season long re-draft.

You want to get these guys way ahead of the curve, and before they breakout to get the most value out of the pick.

I don't see any rookie tight end to be taken before the 10th-12th round with maybe the exception of Howard. That is where I will target these guys, and if they're not there I'll move on.

Tight end is an extremely hard position to project, but in my experience it's taking a shot like this and it paying off that leads to championships. I guess to each their own, because there are 5,000 different way to build a championship caliber fantasy football team.

I think my logic is that those later round draft picks are better spent on guys that can produce now. Yeah, if you go in intending to only use one draft pick on a flier, then yeah that's fine. I just don't think you should use multiple picks on guys who may not produce in year one in a re-draft league, and TEs basically never produce in fantasy their rookie years, so it's just not a smart investment. There's rarely any return.

 

[Hurl Bruce]

I've been doing a few draft only, season-long best-ball leagues on MyFantasyLeague.com lately. They're good practice on seeing where players are going. We throw in $20 and once the draft is done, we can just forget it and see what happens.

 

[BMAN]

Fantasy football calculator is pretty good for doing mock drafts against people. I'm actually preparing this year. I want that title and money

 

[SixPACK]

 

[Jack Brickman]

Sucks. He was on of my mid to late round sleepers.

 

[Surge]

Jets 0-16?

 

[Jack Brickman]

Got a trade offer in my dynasty league today.

Give: Danny Woodhead
Get: Duke Johnson, 2018 2nd (likely late)

Couldn't hit accept on that one fast enough. Especially true considering that I got Woodhead off of waivers a few weeks ago, so I essentially got Poopdick and a 2nd for free. When I read the trade, I had to do a double take because I figured I'd be the one giving up the 2nd.

Woodhead will likely be better this year, but the dude's 32.

 

[Triplethreat]

Got a trade offer in my dynasty league today.

Give: Danny Woodhead
Get: Duke Johnson, 2018 2nd (likely late)

Couldn't hit accept on that one fast enough. Especially true considering that I got Woodhead off of waivers a few weeks ago, so I essentially got Poopdick and a 2nd for free. When I read the trade, I had to do a double take because I figured I'd be the one giving up the 2nd.

Woodhead will likely be better this year, but the dude's 32.

Lmao!!

A second rounder!? Wild move.