Kawhi ?

[Nathan S]

Your model projects him as a Jokic type.

I'm not sure where that projection comes from just watching him play.

Pelton's model also has him as the best NCAA prospect in the field. Most statistical models will have him or Jackson #1, I'd wager. His skill level offensively is off the charts relative to virtually any 6'11" prospect ever at that age, and that's clear regardless of your evaluation method. In the past front offices might have seen him as a low-ceiling guy due to his limited vertical athleticism, but Jokic more or less put that debate to rest.

 

[czvo]

Pelton's model also has him as the best NCAA prospect in the field. Most statistical models will have him or Jackson #1, I'd wager. His skill level offensively is off the charts relative to virtually any 6'11" prospect ever at that age, and that's clear regardless of your evaluation method. In the past front offices might have seen him as a low-ceiling guy due to his limited vertical athleticism, but Jokic more or less put that debate to rest.

ONE guy outperforming his draft slot isn't going to suddenly change the way front offices go about their business.

 

[Nathan S]

ONE guy outperforming his draft slot isn't going to suddenly change the way front offices go about their business.

I'm not sure that's actually true. Comparing prospects with current and past stars is part of the decision making process for most if not all front offices.

 

[Rich]

I'm not sure why you guys have taken your draft prospect debate to a thread titled "Kawhi?"

 

[czvo]

I'm not sure that's actually true. Comparing prospects with current and past stars is part of the decision making process for most if not all front offices.

Yeah, but that's not what I'm saying. Forget for a second that Jokic and Jontay really don't compare physically (Jokic is much bigger) or that their games aren't super similar (Jokic is arguably the best big man passer in the league and a true inside outside threat). There's a reason we see the same type of players taken, more often than not, higher up in the draft. They tend to fit a physical profile that Jontay simply doesn't. So Jontay could be super productive, but he's physically limited. Teams are going to take chances on guys that have physical tools, but lower IQs, than they are the flip side of that coin.

That hasn't changed, and it won't based on Jokic's performance. There's a reason (much to your chagrin, lol) that Ayton is not falling out of the top-3.

 

[Rich]

As far as a deal, look at what the Bulls got for BUtler, what we got for Kyrie, and then think of something more than that.

Bulls got the 7th pick, a 2nd year top 5 pick (that they loved) and a guy on his rookie deal coming off a 20 point per game season.

We got an injured all-star on the last year of his deal, what was supposed to be a high level role player on a great contract, a mid-20s picked rookie, and what was supposed to be a premium, top 5 pick.

So now, when we talk about offering up the 8th pick, Cedi Osman, and salary filler like George Hill...does that seem comparable for the best player of the 3?

If his injury is severe, that changes things, but lets assume he's healthy and just screwing the Spurs.

It will take the Brooklyn pick AND Kevin Love to get the conversation started.

If the pick hops into the top 3, that changes things. If it lands 1, it changes a lot of things.

But right now, Love + the pick and then probably Nance or Zizic. If they want us to take back Gasol, I'm probably calling it there and backing out.

 

[Nathan S]

Yeah, but that's not what I'm saying. Forget for a second that Jokic and Jontay really don't compare physically (Jokic is much bigger) or that their games aren't super similar (Jokic is arguably the best big man passer in the league and a true inside outside threat). There's a reason we see the same type of players taken, more often than not, higher up in the draft. They tend to fit a physical profile that Jontay simply doesn't. So Jontay could be super productive, but he's physically limited. Teams are going to take chances on guys that have physical tools, but lower IQs, than they are the flip side of that coin.

That hasn't changed, and it won't based on Jokic's performance. There's a reason (much to your chagrin, lol) that Ayton is not falling out of the top-3.

If anything, Jontay is an inch or so taller/longer wingspan than Jokic. Both were/are the best passing 18-year-old bigs possibly ever. The only major difference between the two as prospects is that Jontay has shown significantly more potential defensively than Jokic did.

But, getting to your main point, I think at least some teams are beginning to shy away from the age-old strategy of just drafting the craziest athlete you can find and hoping his skills catch up. That shows in how high many teams are on Young, even while a lot of people on here have written him off. Again, not *all* teams, but some teams are certainly beginning to value tangible skills over raw athleticism.

 

[czvo]

If anything, Jontay is an inch or so taller/longer wingspan than Jokic. Both were/are the best passing 18-year-old bigs possibly ever. The only major difference between the two as prospects is that Jontay has shown significantly more potential defensively than Jokic did.

But, getting to your main point, I think at least some teams are beginning to shy away from the age-old strategy of just drafting the craziest athlete you can find and hoping his skills catch up. That shows in how high many teams are on Young, even while a lot of people on here have written him off. Again, not *all* teams, but some teams are certainly beginning to value tangible skills over raw athleticism.

I'd be very interested in an update from IBWT on Young's status around the league.

 

[gourimoko]

As far as a deal, look at what the Bulls got for BUtler, what we got for Kyrie, and then think of something more than that.

Bulls got the 7th pick, a 2nd year top 5 pick (that they loved) and a guy on his rookie deal coming off a 20 point per game season.

We got an injured all-star on the last year of his deal, what was supposed to be a high level role player on a great contract, a mid-20s picked rookie, and what was supposed to be a premium, top 5 pick.

So now, when we talk about offering up the 8th pick, Cedi Osman, and salary filler like George Hill...does that seem comparable for the best player of the 3?

If his injury is severe, that changes things, but lets assume he's healthy and just screwing the Spurs.

It will take the Brooklyn pick AND Kevin Love to get the conversation started.

If the pick hops into the top 3, that changes things. If it lands 1, it changes a lot of things.

But right now, Love + the pick and then probably Nance or Zizic. If they want us to take back Gasol, I'm probably calling it there and backing out.

Gasol's contract is insanely bad... But by contrast, Kawhi in 2018-19 is only making $20.1M... If you consider Kawhi being so cheap in year 1, then Pau's contract for that year isn't so bad -- it's tolerable with the two players having a combined salary of $36.1M...

In Pau's final year, the Cavs would have some flexibility... Gasol, like JR Smith or George Hill, would become a $16M expiring contract. Trading Gasol near the deadline with cash considerations would mean a team could give him a reasonable buyout and actually never pay him... So that makes Gasol's expiring that much more valuable to facilitate trades (potentially netting the Cavs an asset).

Alternatively, if the deadline comes near and we can't flip Gasol's contract for a player, the Cavs could potentially trade him to a team marginally below the cap to create a trade exception for later use.

Lastly, barring any trades come to fruition by the deadline; the Cavs could simply buyout Gasol, opening up a roster spot for another player in the buyout market.

So while Gasol's contract is horrible, the first year isn't so bad considering you're getting Kawhi at $20M; and the final year is of course, an expiring.

 

[JMoneyYourHoney]

Gasol's contract is insanely bad... But by contrast, Kawhi in 2018-19 is only making $20.1M... If you consider Kawhi being so cheap in year 1, then Pau's contract for that year isn't so bad -- it's tolerable with the two players having a combined salary of $36.1M...

In Pau's final year, the Cavs would have some flexibility... Gasol, like JR Smith or George Hill, would become a $16M expiring contract. Trading Gasol near the deadline with cash considerations would mean a team could give him a reasonable buyout and actually never pay him... So that makes Gasol's expiring that much more valuable to facilitate trades (potentially netting the Cavs an asset).

Alternatively, if the deadline comes near and we can't flip Gasol's contract for a player, the Cavs could potentially trade him to a team marginally below the cap to create a trade exception for later use.

Lastly, barring any trades come to fruition by the deadline; the Cavs could simply buyout Gasol, opening up a roster spot for another player in the buyout market.

So while Gasol's contract is horrible, the first year isn't so bad considering you're getting Kawhi at $20M; and the final year is of course, an expiring.

Just...no.

 

[gourimoko]

Just...no.

Why?

If the deal were Kawhi and Danny Green for Love, Osman, Zizic and the BKN pick; would you say no?

If yes, now if they want to swap Gasol for JR Smith, you then walk away?

I'm just trying to understand the logic and where one decides Kawhi Leonard isn't worth the trouble.

 

[Nathan S]

What about Gasol's contract is "insanely bad"? Even if he declines modestly next year he'll still be a quality rotation guy. As the Cavs know well, you can do a lot worse than that for 16M/year

 

[gourimoko]

What about Gasol's contract is "insanely bad"? Even if he declines modestly next year he'll still be a quality rotation guy. As the Cavs know well, you can do a lot worse than that for 16M/year

I'm speaking in terms of the overall contract, as in $48M/3 fully guaranteed for a guy who is on the wrong side of 37 years old..

Had the Spurs not made a backroom deal with Pau, and his option year terminated this offseason, he'd be looking at being a vet minimum to mini-MLE salary player in the league. Instead, the Spurs rewarded him for his loyalty with a sizable deal that is really hard to justify.

From the Cavs perspective, we'd be looking at $32M/2Y, but we can't ignore the fact that we'd (1) be sending out one of either Smith, Hill or Thompson in this deal, simply for salary reasons alone; (2) the last year of Kawhi's deal has him at only $20M which is a steal; (3) the last year of Gasol's deal is a decently sized expiring, and we can obviously buy him out if we really need the roster slot; (4) we could use the stretch provision to minimize the tax hit of his last year...

So while Gasol's contract, from the Spurs perspective, was terrible; from the Cavs perspective, one year removed, and coming back with Kawhi -- it's definitely not something that would keep me from agreeing to the trade.

 

[Rich]

Why?

If the deal were Kawhi and Danny Green for Love, Osman, Zizic and the BKN pick; would you say no?

If yes, now if they want to swap Gasol for JR Smith, you then walk away?

I'm just trying to understand the logic and where one decides Kawhi Leonard isn't worth the trouble.

The issue with Gasol is your flexibility is obliterated for the rest of LeBrons prime here, and because so much space will be eaten up by Tristan and Pau we will just never be good enough and then LeBron is too old once they finally clear.

After year 1 Kawhi and LeBron making 30 to 35 million each with Gasol and Tristan still here. So then that's essentially the team.

I dont see how that's maximizing LeBrons window at that point.

 

[Ozcavs89]

I really think that we should appeal to leanorsa competitive side, "come to the cavs and me and you will run through the west , with a little help from kev".

Another upside will be skips reaction. Of coarse all this depends on lebron staying and kawhie willing to come here