3 Ball...GOT IT
#CediSZN
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I know everyone is totally involved in the playoffs right now, but based on the body language I've seen from LeBron in the first round, as well as the team's overall lack of success, I thought it was worth the team to look a little closer at sign and trade possibilities.
People totally forget about the S&T between the Cavs and Miami when LeBron went there in 2010. Obviously these take agreement from 3 parties rather than 2 like a normal trade, but the fact that CLE/MIA were able to get it done back then with all of the vitriol at the time indicates it wouldn't be a problem this time.
So the question is, where would LeBron go, and what could the return be? Houston and Philly are the top two scenarios certainly imo. Now with the MIA-CLE S&T back in 2010, Miami already had the cap space I believe to accomplish the trade without sending any outgoing salary. The Cavs just received a huge trade exception & picks. Houston on the other hand is already capped out. Now I'm not super familiar with the CBA particulars in a S&T because they're so infrequent, but I would imagine it'd be just like a normal trade in which HOU would have to send out enough salary that the incoming salary is no more than 125% + $100K of what they're receiving. It's confusing when written, but that's the rule.
So let's break down that figure. A max contract for a player with 10+ years experience is 35% of the salary cap. The NBA just released a memo to teams stating that the projected preseason 2018-19 salary cap will stay the same at $101 million. That sets LeBron's max contract at roughly $35 million. So to make a long story short, Houston must send out $28.4 million according to my math.
Eric Gordon $13.5 million + Ryan Anderson $20.4 million = $33.9 million
Looking at Houston's roster, there's not any other logical makeup of salaries that can yield the needed $28.4 million. Now this trade doesn't make sense from a Cavs perspective, but keep in mind that Dan Gilbert will probably want to go on a vengeance tour if we lose LeBron, and avoid another 2010-11 season. At the same time the Cavs would certainly be able to get draft compensation for taking on salaries for 2019-20 as well (the combo makes $35 million that season as well).
Houston's future draft assets are better than you'd expect. Beyond the 2018 draft (this agreement of course would all take place after the draft), Houston has all of its picks except for their 2019 second rounder. Given Altman's negotiating in the past (see Isaiah Thomas deal), I would imagine the Cavs could end up receiving multiple firsts in this sort of deal. Keep in mind that a Houston first will be in the 28-30 range.
The next most likely scenario is Philadelphia. Philly has a lot more cap space to work with. If they renounce rights to all of their upcoming free agents, as well as trading away Jerryd Bayless' salary, they will have just enough cap space to get to the needed $35 million. This coming draft can throw a small wrench into things as well, which I will mention in a minute. The Cavs would take on Bayless' salary in order for Philly to create the needed room and would also receive draft compensation. The strength of Cleveland's ability to negotiate draft picks will be solely based on Philly's chances of moving Bayless elsewhere in a similar deal.
I would imagine that Philly sought deals to dump Bayless at the deadline, and were likely unsuccessful. There are very few teams who can take Bayless into cap space this summer without sending any salary back. This could certainly work into the Cavs' favor. Philly still has all of its own future draft assets, and some future seconds from other teams. Now, Philly has also received a 2018 first round pick from the LA Lakers (which has an 87% chance to become the 10th pick). First round rookies are on a set scale amount for their salaries. The 10th pick will earn just under $3 million in his first season. That's an additional $3 million less of cap space. Their own pick at 26th will earn $1.4 million. It's a tight squeeze, and there's a chance that they could offer up one of these selected players in a S&T as well.
Hopefully I haven't lost everybody... but according to my math and the projections I've pulled from another source, the 76ers would come up just short of being able to create a max slot for LeBron if they were to renounce all pending FA's and move Bayless's salary. However, the amount they'd need is so small that LeBron could take just a $1 million pay cut and make things work.
So taking a step back, the Cavs were able to receive 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders in exchange for LeBron in the Miami Heat S&T in which they had almost no negotiating leverage. Albeit slight in the Philly scenario, the Cavs do have some leverage.
If LeBron does choose to go elsewhere, the Cavs should be in a MUCH better scenario than in 2010.
People totally forget about the S&T between the Cavs and Miami when LeBron went there in 2010. Obviously these take agreement from 3 parties rather than 2 like a normal trade, but the fact that CLE/MIA were able to get it done back then with all of the vitriol at the time indicates it wouldn't be a problem this time.
So the question is, where would LeBron go, and what could the return be? Houston and Philly are the top two scenarios certainly imo. Now with the MIA-CLE S&T back in 2010, Miami already had the cap space I believe to accomplish the trade without sending any outgoing salary. The Cavs just received a huge trade exception & picks. Houston on the other hand is already capped out. Now I'm not super familiar with the CBA particulars in a S&T because they're so infrequent, but I would imagine it'd be just like a normal trade in which HOU would have to send out enough salary that the incoming salary is no more than 125% + $100K of what they're receiving. It's confusing when written, but that's the rule.
So let's break down that figure. A max contract for a player with 10+ years experience is 35% of the salary cap. The NBA just released a memo to teams stating that the projected preseason 2018-19 salary cap will stay the same at $101 million. That sets LeBron's max contract at roughly $35 million. So to make a long story short, Houston must send out $28.4 million according to my math.
Eric Gordon $13.5 million + Ryan Anderson $20.4 million = $33.9 million
Looking at Houston's roster, there's not any other logical makeup of salaries that can yield the needed $28.4 million. Now this trade doesn't make sense from a Cavs perspective, but keep in mind that Dan Gilbert will probably want to go on a vengeance tour if we lose LeBron, and avoid another 2010-11 season. At the same time the Cavs would certainly be able to get draft compensation for taking on salaries for 2019-20 as well (the combo makes $35 million that season as well).
Houston's future draft assets are better than you'd expect. Beyond the 2018 draft (this agreement of course would all take place after the draft), Houston has all of its picks except for their 2019 second rounder. Given Altman's negotiating in the past (see Isaiah Thomas deal), I would imagine the Cavs could end up receiving multiple firsts in this sort of deal. Keep in mind that a Houston first will be in the 28-30 range.
The next most likely scenario is Philadelphia. Philly has a lot more cap space to work with. If they renounce rights to all of their upcoming free agents, as well as trading away Jerryd Bayless' salary, they will have just enough cap space to get to the needed $35 million. This coming draft can throw a small wrench into things as well, which I will mention in a minute. The Cavs would take on Bayless' salary in order for Philly to create the needed room and would also receive draft compensation. The strength of Cleveland's ability to negotiate draft picks will be solely based on Philly's chances of moving Bayless elsewhere in a similar deal.
I would imagine that Philly sought deals to dump Bayless at the deadline, and were likely unsuccessful. There are very few teams who can take Bayless into cap space this summer without sending any salary back. This could certainly work into the Cavs' favor. Philly still has all of its own future draft assets, and some future seconds from other teams. Now, Philly has also received a 2018 first round pick from the LA Lakers (which has an 87% chance to become the 10th pick). First round rookies are on a set scale amount for their salaries. The 10th pick will earn just under $3 million in his first season. That's an additional $3 million less of cap space. Their own pick at 26th will earn $1.4 million. It's a tight squeeze, and there's a chance that they could offer up one of these selected players in a S&T as well.
Hopefully I haven't lost everybody... but according to my math and the projections I've pulled from another source, the 76ers would come up just short of being able to create a max slot for LeBron if they were to renounce all pending FA's and move Bayless's salary. However, the amount they'd need is so small that LeBron could take just a $1 million pay cut and make things work.
So taking a step back, the Cavs were able to receive 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders in exchange for LeBron in the Miami Heat S&T in which they had almost no negotiating leverage. Albeit slight in the Philly scenario, the Cavs do have some leverage.
If LeBron does choose to go elsewhere, the Cavs should be in a MUCH better scenario than in 2010.
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