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NBA betting thread

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shoes22 said:
Let’s get this performance review out of the way before I get to the good stuff…the model’s accuracy of this round was remarkably similar to last round’s results. From initial projections, the model did not pick the exact outcome in either series, but it did pick the correct overall winner in both series. The model first identified the correct series’ outcomes of Warriors in 7 after Game 1, and Cavs in 6 after Game 4.

It was remarkably bullish and consistent with its picks as well. It predicted Warriors in 5 for one game (before Game 1), Warriors in 7 for four games (before Games 2-4 and 7), and Thunder in 6 for two games (before Games 5-6). In the East it predicted Cavs in 5 for four games (before Games 1-4), and Cavs in 6 for two games (before Games 5-6.) The model also continues its 14-consecutive series streak of ending a series with a correct prediction.

As for individual games, it picked the game winner for 4 out of the 6 games in the East (missing games 3 and 4), and 4 out of the 7 games in the West (missing games 1, 3, and 6.) The total for the playoffs so far to 63/79 correct predictions, still nearly 80%!!!

Here’s what the NBA Finals look like:

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 6.29%
Warriors in 5: 14.54%
Warriors in 6: 14.34%
Warriors in 7: 17.99%
Cavs in 7: 13.57%
Cavs in 6: 16.95%
Cavs in 5: 10.53%
Cavs in 4: 5.80%

Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 57%/Cavs Win 43%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.91%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 62.85%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.56%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.82

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 53.15% likely
Cavs win series: 46.85% likely

Believe it or not, my model has this series (and these two teams) as remarkably even overall. I was surprised at this, but my model seems to think the Cavs unrivaled offensive efficiency through these playoffs is sustainable. Because both of these teams are very capable of winning big both at home and away, when considering the total range of outcomes most of these games average out to close to even odds. A side effect of this occurrence is each game played in this series will have a larger influence in my model's predictions than a usual series. (In other words, it's quite likely my model will adopt frontrunner tendencies.)

The thing pushing the Warriors over the top right now is homecourt advantage and a potential extra game. When I saw this, just for fun I decided to run the numbers on what the series would look like if the Cavs were the ones with homecourt advantage instead, all other things being equal. This is what I got:

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (1)
Cavs in 4: 5.80%
Cavs in 5: 13.71%
Cavs in 6: 13.76%
Cavs in 7: 17.68%
Warriors in 7: 13.89%
Warriors in 6: 17.65%
Warriors in 5: 11.22%
Warriors in 4: 6.29%

Overall Odds:
Cavs win series: 50.95% likely
Warriors win series: 49.05% likely

Interesting, no?
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Very surprising to me is the odds of a sweep on either side being ~12%.
 
The Wizard of Moz said:
Very surprising to me is the odds of a sweep on either side being ~12%.
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That’s only because it’s a reflection of the game to game odds being close to equal.

Like I said above, it’s quite likely the odds will swing quite significantly to one side or the other after each game, increasing the odds of a sweep.
 
AsianDawg said:
Warriors have confidence. Dubs in 5 or 6. :( I love the Cavs but I don't see the Cavs beating the Warriors and refs.
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As much as I appreciate your candor. Maybe you should you know, stop the defeatist mindset.

The series is 0-0. We have a healthy team. We have a hungry team. We have a roster that is specifically built for this match up against the warriors.

Read around and borrow strength from our more confident brothers in this forum.

Nobody really knows whats going to happen. Not us, not the Cavs, not even the Warriors. Thats why we have to believe. Believe AsianDawg.
 
Ace Kicker said:
As much as I appreciate your candor. Maybe you should you know, stop the defeatist mindset.

The series is 0-0. We have a healthy team. We have a hungry team. We have a roster that is specifically built for this match up against the warriors.

Read around and borrow strength from our more confident brothers in this forum.

Nobody really knows whats going to happen. Not us, not the Cavs, not even the Warriors. Thats why we have to believe. Believe AsianDawg.
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Fair point...I am VERY happy that we have Love and Kyrie back. And we took them to 6 with basically LeBron and half of a team.

Another good stat I saw--The Dubs' D sucks compared to last year.

I'm ALL IN.
 
As expected.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 11.95% (+5.66%)
Warriors in 5: 22.13% (+7.59%)
Warriors in 6: 17.05% (+2.71%)
Warriors in 7: 18.39% (+0.4%)
Cavs in 7: 12.78% (-0.79%)
Cavs in 6: 12.63% (-4.32%)
Cavs in 5: 5.09% (-5.44%)
Cavs in 4: 0.0% (-5.8%)

Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 59%/Cavs Win 41%

Odds Cavs force a Game 5: 88.05% (+0.14%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 60.83% (-2.01%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.17% (-0.39%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.80 (-0.02)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 69.51% likely (+16.36%)
Cavs win series: 30.49% likely (-16.36%)
 
As a measure of courtesy for Cavs fans I've put the updated odds in spoilers.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 23.04% (+11.09%)
Warriors in 5: 36.44% (+14.31%)
Warriors in 6: 15.94% (-1.11%)
Warriors in 7: 15.17% (-3.22%)
Cavs in 7: 5.61% (-7.17%)
Cavs in 6: 3.80% (-8.83%)
Cavs in 5: 0.0% (-5.09%)
Cavs in 4: 0.0%

Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 48%/Cavs Win 52%

Odds Cavs force a Game 5: 76.96% (-11.09%)
Odds Cavs force a Game 6: 40.52% (-20.31%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 20.78% (-10.39%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.38 (-0.42)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 90.59% likely (+21.08%)
Cavs win series: 9.41% likely (-21.08%)

The Cavs have about a 1 in 10 chance to win the series.
 
Last edited:
I don't think its nearly that high. Barring a serious injury/plane crash its just not going to happen.

The odds of a plane crash are far less than 10%...

And that's pretty much the only thing I can think of that would change what is increasingly appearing to be the inevitable result.
 
HurricaneKid said:
I don't think its nearly that high. Barring a serious injury/plane crash its just not going to happen.

The odds of a plane crash are far less than 10%...

And that's pretty much the only thing I can think of that would change what is increasingly appearing to be the inevitable result.
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My model is much higher on home court than others you’d see out there. The odds being “that high” is a function of the Cavs not having played a home game yet.
 
Nah, I think 10% is about right. At the end of the day, it is just 2 games, and 10% is quite awful odds anyway.
 
go cavs275 said:
Nah, I think 10% is about right. At the end of the day, it is just 2 games, and 10% is quite awful odds anyway.
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I'd gladly take 10%. After last night I might take .10%. I had a REALLY hard time dealing with last night. Maybe its just matchup issues but Golden State is playing mediocre ball. If we actually put them in a bind I think we would see them rise to the occasion. We are 50 points away from this team right now. We are trying to do A, when that doesn't work we go to B, but we aren't always even getting there in 24 secs. They get to Z in the blink of an eye. I'm holding out hope, but I honestly don't even know what I'm hoping for.
 
Is it just shitty timing that as good as we are GSW is better? Think '85-89 Browns/Broncos.

Damn OKC.
 
shoes22 said:
As expected.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 11.95% (+5.66%)
Warriors in 5: 22.13% (+7.59%)
Warriors in 6: 17.05% (+2.71%)
Warriors in 7: 18.39% (+0.4%)
Cavs in 7: 12.78% (-0.79%)
Cavs in 6: 12.63% (-4.32%)
Cavs in 5: 5.09% (-5.44%)
Cavs in 4: 0.0% (-5.8%)

Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 59%/Cavs Win 41%

Odds Cavs force a Game 5: 88.05% (+0.14%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 60.83% (-2.01%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.17% (-0.39%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.80 (-0.02)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 69.51% likely (+16.36%)
Cavs win series: 30.49% likely (-16.36%)
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Thanks for doing this! But I just see OKC falling apart as our barrier to success. Had we gotten HC against the Thunder, we win in 6.

A friend told me the Mafia will never let CLE win the title many years ago...
 
AsianDawg said:
Thanks for doing this! But I just see OKC falling apart as our barrier to success. Had we gotten HC against the Thunder, we win in 6.

A friend told me the Mafia will never let CLE win the title many years ago...
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If only the Mafia actually had some sway - then the Knicks might have a chance since the damn five families were formed here.
 
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