• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

NBA betting thread

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Finally trending in the right direction! Pre-game 4 odds:

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 0.0% (-23.04%)
Warriors in 5: 27.2% (-9.24%)
Warriors in 6: 21.44% (+5.5%)
Warriors in 7: 27.09% (+11.92%)
Cavs in 7: 12.75% (+7.14%)
Cavs in 6: 11.52% (+7.72%)
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%


Game 4 Odds:
Warriors win 40%/Cavs Win 60%

Odds Cavs force a Game 6: 72.8% (+32.28%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 39.84% (+19.06%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.13 (+0.75)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 75.73% likely (-14.86%)
Cavs win series: 24.27% likely (+14.86%)

The Cavs have increased their odds from around 1 in 10 to around 1 in 4.
Game 4 is absolutely a must-win for the Cavs though, otherwise my model is very confident this series is ending in 5. (Hence why the most likely outcome remains unchanged from Warriors in 5.)
 
Last edited:
Cavs have opened as 1.5 point favorites tomorrow night.
 
Narrow odds even with a home court advantage...!
That’s in line with what I would expect. It all comes down to whether you think game 3 was a “fluke” game or not.
 
With the Refs tonight I will put a lot of emphasis on the CAVS winning.

Danny Crawford (Home team wins at 70% of the time in 10 games)
Mike Callahan (Home team wins at 93% of the time in 14 games)
Jason Phillips (Home team wins at 40% of the time in 10 games)

Alternate Tom Washington has yet to Ref a playoff game...
 
Sorry guys...I sure hope this isn't the last odds post of the 2015-2016 season, but it's looking like it will be.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 72% (+44.8%)
Warriors in 6: 13.44% (-8%)
Warriors in 7: 10.48% (-16.61%)
Cavs in 7: 4.08% (-8.67%)
Cavs in 6: 0.0% (-11.52%)
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%


Odds Cavs force a Game 6: 28% (-44.8%)
Odds Cavs force a Game 7: 14.56% (-25.28%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.43 (-0.7)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 95.92% likely (+20.19%)
Cavs win series: 4.08% likely (-20.19%)

The Cavs series odds have dropped from nearly 1 in 4 to 1 in 25.

They do have a 1 in 4 chance of winning game 5 though! That’s something...right?
 
Last edited:
Revised odds with Green suspended for Game 5:

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 61% (+33.8%)
Warriors in 6: 18.72% (-2.72%)
Warriors in 7: 14.60% (-12.49%)
Cavs in 7: 5.68% (-7.07%)
Cavs in 6: 0.0% (-11.52%)
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%


Odds Cavs force a Game 6: 39% (-33.8%)
Odds Cavs force a Game 7: 20.28% (-19.56%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.59 (-0.54)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 94.32% likely (+18.59%)
Cavs win series: 5.68% likely (-18.59%)

The Cavs odds to win the series improved from 1 in 25 to 1 in 20 with the Game 5 suspension.
 
Could this game be the shot in the arm we need? The odds are still stacked against us but...

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0% (-61%)
Warriors in 6: 44% (+25.28%)
Warriors in 7: 35.84% (+21.24%)
Cavs in 7: 20.16% (+14.48%)
Cavs in 6: 0.0%
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%


Odds Cavs force a Game 7: 56% (+35.72%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.56 (+0.97)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 79.84% likely (-14.48%)
Cavs win series: 20.16% likely (+14.48%)

The Cavs odds to win the series improved from 1 in 20 to 1 in 5 with the Game 5 victory.
 
Okay, what are the vegas odds for Game 7? Who's putting down money.. I'm ready.
 
Okay, what are the vegas odds for Game 7? Who's putting down money.. I'm ready.

GS is 4.5 to 5 point favorites.

Money line is basically even. I have seen the lowest at -101 for the CAVS (-109 for the warriors) to -115 for both teams.
 

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-13: "Backup Bash Brothers"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:11: "Clipping Bucks."
Top