NBA betting thread

[bigfoot5415]

Okay, what are the vegas odds for Game 7? Who's putting down money.. I'm ready.

I turned a $136 bonus bet into $1200 of real cash in two games. I almost put all my winnings from game 5 on 6, but didnt want to get greedy. I would have been up to $2700 right now. Oh well. Keep it rolling. Bet $100 again.

 

[shoes22]

Well effing done Cavs. It's been a pleasure sharing this stuff with you guys this postseason.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 0.0% (-44%)
Warriors in 7: 53% (+17.16%)
Cavs in 7: 47% (+26.84%)
Cavs in 6: 0.0%
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 53% likely (-26.84%)
Cavs win series: 47% likely (+26.84%)

 

[FiveThous]

How much of your model is weighing home court?

 

[AsianDawg]

This is almost as big as the Super Bowl. Intense. Tickets to a watch party--not even the game--sold out in 120 seconds.

 

[shoes22]

How much of your model is weighing home court?

Varies per team and opponent. My model had the Warriors and Spurs weighted #1 and #2 in home court boost in the regular season...at an unheard of 12%, with both OKC and CLE tied for #3 at 7.5%.

The playoffs are a different beast though, and the Warriors homecourt advantage sunk a lot recently, as you can probably tell. In the playoffs as of last night, the rankings have almost flipped.

To answer your question, the Warriors current homecourt advantage against the Cavs is 3%... so the entirety of their “favorite” status.

If a Bogut-less Warriors team played the Cavs on a neutral floor, my model would predict a pick-’em. 50/50 straight up. If the game was played at the Q, the Cavs would be favored 56/44.

 

[FiveThous]

That's crazy, thanks for the reply shoes!

 

[BooyaCS]

Well effing done Cavs. It's been a pleasure sharing this stuff with you guys this postseason.

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 0.0% (-44%)
Warriors in 7: 53% (+17.16%)
Cavs in 7: 47% (+26.84%)
Cavs in 6: 0.0%
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 53% likely (-26.84%)
Cavs win series: 47% likely (+26.84%)

Basically it is a coin flip.

 

[gourimoko]

No. Im rolling it all over into game 6.

Edit: Im not kidding @gourimoko. No need to laugh lol.

Shit was hilarious...

"I just won all this money!"
"Can I have some?"
"No. (continues with conversation)"



Shit's still funny.. !!

 

[Simon]

Shit was hilarious...

"I just won all this money!"
"Can I have some?"
"No. (continues with conversation)"



Shit's still funny.. !!

Oh shit, he's the Soup Nazi guy from Seinfeld?!

"No money for you!"

 

[AsianDawg]

Well...

 

[shoes22]

Well...

Well indeed...

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 0.0%
Warriors in 7: 0.0% (-53%)
Cavs in 7: 100% (+53%)
Cavs in 6: 0.0%
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 0% likely (-53%)
Cavs win series: 100% likely (+53%)

Happiest I've ever been in my life for an incorrect prediction. (Although it was only by 3%, so...)

My model correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 7 games in this series, incorrectly predicting games 4, 5, and 7. Finished the postseason with a record of 67/86 correct predictions, a 77.9% hit rate!

Successful thread, successful year. See you next season everybody!

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

@bigfoot5415 I gave you the red X not because you wouldn't share your winnings with me, your internet friend, but because if you would have rode your bets on the Cavs each game you would practically be a billionair by now (see futurama for more details)

 

[FiveThous]

Well indeed...

Golden State Warriors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (1)
Warriors in 4: 0.0%
Warriors in 5: 0.0%
Warriors in 6: 0.0%
Warriors in 7: 0.0% (-53%)
Cavs in 7: 100% (+53%)
Cavs in 6: 0.0%
Cavs in 5: 0.0%
Cavs in 4: 0.0%

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 0% likely (-53%)
Cavs win series: 100% likely (+53%)

Happiest I've ever been in my life for an incorrect prediction. (Although it was only by 3%, so...)

My model correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 7 games in this series, incorrectly predicting games 4, 5, and 7. Finished the postseason with a record of 67/86 correct predictions, a 77.9% hit rate!

Successful thread, successful year. See you next season everybody!

Can't wait for the regular season version!

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Two questions

1. What team had the highest preseason odds to win the title out of all seasons

2. What was the highest combination of odds to win the title preseason