Nerlens Noel: Worth the Risk?

[TheAdmin]

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Absolutely. There’s more to Nerlens Noel than just a sweet flattop. He’s also one of the most elite defensive big men to come out of college in several years. He may not have the same upside as Anthony Davis, but he’s arguably a better defensive player.
With that said, there is an inherent risk in drafting a guy coming off of ACL surgery. When one of a player’s main strengths is his athleticism, a knee injury is certainly cause for concern.
This draft is relatively weak in terms of potential elite talent. If ever there was a draft class to take a risk, it would be this one. Noel’s injury also places scrutiny on the one and done rule. He was a highly touted prospect coming out of high school. Without that rule, he may have gone directly to the NBA from high school. If Noel does fall in the draft the blame falls on Commissioner David Stern.
Strengths
When talking about Noel’s strengths the first thing you have to mention is his freakish athleticism and great size. Noel can jump out of the gym and he has a 7’4” wingspan. He runs the floor like a guard and always attempts to make the hustle play. Assuming everything goes well in his recovery, he’ll instantly be one of the most athletic big men in the NBA.

Full article By Doc Shakalou can be read on the front page of RCF.

 

[Ohio]

I heard from a UK fan that he had as many blocks as Anthony Davis did last season, despite missing the last 10 or so games. If true, that is absolutely incredible. Seems like if Noel can stay healthy, his floor is something like Dikembe Mutombo/Marcus Camby. Sounds good to me.

 

[godfather]

Anything involving knee ligaments, especially ACL with big men like him, scares the hell out of me.

 

[MD13]

I heard from a UK fan that he had as many blocks as Anthony Davis did last season, despite missing the last 10 or so games. If true, that is absolutely incredible. Seems like if Noel can stay healthy, his floor is something like Dikembe Mutombo/Marcus Camby. Sounds good to me.

He probably meant blocks per game, Noel had slightly more I believe at the time of injury. But no, he didn't have as many total blocks.

 

[MGMT]

I think under Z, he could at the very least be competent on offense.

I think his frame's capacity for weight gain is a huge question as well.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I would like him as a PF. I dont think he has the build to put on a whole lot more mass and still be as effective with his quickness or the lower body strength to be considered a center. Not to mention adding in knee concerns and the potential for growth plate issues.

All that said, I would love to have him and worry about who all fits next to him and is who would compliment him in the frontcourt, later.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I think the intangibles Noel would bring would mesh perfectly with TT's, and help keep a competitive fire burning in the rest of the roster. Big men like that set the tone.

But the reality is that if we draft Noel, we are essentially locking ourselves into requiring a major scoring talent at the 3.

 

[TheAdmin]

I think the intangibles Noel would bring would mesh perfectly with TT's, and help keep a competitive fire burning in the rest of the roster. Big men like that set the tone.

But the reality is that if we draft Noel, we are essentially locking ourselves into requiring a major scoring talent at the 3.

Or at SG with Waiters moving to 6th man.

 

[BKnight's Ankle]

I heard from a UK fan that he had as many blocks as Anthony Davis did last season, despite missing the last 10 or so games. If true, that is absolutely incredible. Seems like if Noel can stay healthy, his floor is something like Dikembe Mutombo/Marcus Camby. Sounds good to me.

If Dikembe Mutombo is his floor, then I don't care about a knee, I want him bad.

 

[BKnight's Ankle]

Or at SG with Waiters moving to 6th man.

I thought the point of a supersub scoring 6th man like waiters is that so you have a defensively oriented guy starting and then if you go stagnant on offense, you bring him in?

 

[Scholar]

I heard from a UK fan that he had as many blocks as Anthony Davis did last season, despite missing the last 10 or so games. If true, that is absolutely incredible. Seems like if Noel can stay healthy, his floor is something like Dikembe Mutombo/Marcus Camby. Sounds good to me.

Let's be honest here since his health issues are a rather significant issue. His floor is the unhealthy version of Greg Oden. Plus, we don't know how well he'll come back as this is now his second bout with knee issues. Does this rob him of any of his athleticism? His whole game is based off it. He really can't afford to lose that.

Plus, if Richfield is right about him being a better fit at PF, doe it make sense for us to pick him over Len at center? Where I sit, I want Len period. Do what is necessary to get him, and whatever else we get from this draft isn't a big deal to me.

 

[oasis05]

Is it a good idea to get set on one player in a weak draft? It seems some would be happy with trading our first and the lakers first to move up a few spots. I think the cavs are still more than one player away and will be better off with multiple shots than to zero in on one guy when in this draft there is no stand out.

 

[Nathan S]

From a medical perspective, the only thing Noel's knee issues have in common with Oden's knee issues is that they both involve the knee.

Ligament injuries (in the knee, in the shoulder, anywhere) heal completely almost 100% of the time. The replacement ligament used in surgery, in the case of the ACL, is actually stronger than the one you're born with, and the only noteable long-term effects are confidence-related (see Derrick Rose). Ligament injuries do not imply that there is anything else wrong with the joint they occur in, and are not harbingers of chronic injuries to that joint. Ligaments do not wear down or become weaker over time (you'll notice that ligament injuries affect young and old players in roughly equal proportions).

Cartilage injuries (again, anywhere) heal completely 0% of the time. The replacement cartilage generated in microfracture surgery is weaker than the cartilage you're born with, and can be vulnerable to re-injury. A cartilage injury can be the result of an isolated defect, or it can indicate that the cartilage in general is in bad condition (as in the case of Oden). Cartilage injuries are often the beginnings of arthritis in basketball players, and do pose a chronic injury risk. Cartilage naturally wears down and weakens over time, and the fact that cartilage and arthritis-related knee issues are more common in older players reflects this.

In conclusion, Noel's injury is about as scary as the injury Kyrie had in college. It sucks, and it makes you wonder a little about their durability, but it's certainly no reason to panic and pick someone else.

 

[Scholar]

Is it a good idea to get set on one player in a weak draft? It seems some would be happy with trading our first and the lakers first to move up a few spots. I think the cavs are still more than one player away and will be better off with multiple shots than to zero in on one guy when in this draft there is no stand out.

We are two players away plus a couple of role playing pieces. You get one of your core pieces here in the draft. Next season you either sign or trade for that other piece. The role players to fill in whatever is missing is the easy part. The NBA is a quality, not a quantity league. You need certain pieces, so you go out and get them. We do not have to get two out of this draft. But, we must get one of our missing pieces here.

 

[Shakalu M.D.]

I would like him as a PF. I dont think he has the build to put on a whole lot more mass and still be as effective with his quickness or the lower body strength to be considered a center. Not to mention adding in knee concerns and the potential for growth plate issues.

All that said, I would love to have him and worry about who all fits next to him and is who would compliment him in the frontcourt, later.

Not sure I agree with you. I think he's got the frame to put on some more mass and not get bullied in the post so much. There really aren't as many huge centers in the league anymore, I don't think he'd have a problem playing center. He may struggle against the Dwights and Bynums of the world, but there's really not many guys with their size and athleticism playing the 5 these days.

Remember Noel is 6'11" with a good wingspan. He's definitely got the athleticism for it, if he puts on some more bulk he should be golden. Even if he doesn't I still think he'll be an effective defender playing the pick and roll and coming in to help from the weak side. He wouldn't really be a great option if Tristan hadn't started developing so much on offense recently.

If they do manage to land Noel, which I honestly doubt happens, they're pretty much going to be forced to bring in a big time scorer at the 2 or 3. That said, with Noel guarding the basket maybe the team would finally be able to play some defense.

I do drool at the thought of a fast break being run by Kyrie and Dion. Them setting it up with Noel and Tristan both running the floor would just be gross. If Noel can develop some post moves and work on his jumper, he could end up being one of the best bigs in the NBA. He needs to become more efficient at creating for himself though, right now he's borderline useless unless somebody sets it up for him.