Series #14: Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros - May 19th, 20th & 21st

[Derek]

Cleveland Indians (20-19)

VS

Houston Astros (29-12)

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VpakFvo7ChDKrxme8fbB2x8bgcEbM6gR2gLlPwMgXQ4yVGRKQjv01x/RghNjOqJYZv6TURitTUBGvW4JWgJWD06wajxfZ5nH2oWQnRvCWCflHSIt8NW+egIyRXW+MV0zWLrrtDNMWE8sQo9+TvamJilYdk0js0MelZJuWLopbMWIJGCBcznyBnk3rrfG6w6o3xqodksAiF9VloE9PM+tiW1ktJVqRm2FWATDH+HFju5hgWremR3at+6JIWpmlIJdouwXETJanNEoqJL9sUkqrDfgiZwmYPBBDb3SzytwxKuJrDILb3TConnjA2tdW94Vl2Gt76zdMC9IVZtOQqNfY8NtIWnIgtNpoQxgNLgzjmnM3q3Bb3AsgpoWtTicLu063JeN37Q1Ak33+3tGiqNUDjFkZhVlwri2eMyUgTr9AUASqTIHZo8biNbCbWQWQ5UZ8Lm2JTbDT39ZltCsjaLbPPlt3kJBnhSp+SxdEo+yCq2uhdsicLl2RYZWAMeiuArIP0M2sAnoV/LvJouQpJ7indlvFZufdrUXl6GNK/eowYFjDNUE0qi44AWIHrTa42t3l6Mq1GyOebffVKPltPF1yOxsEUEL2LbSlgXNnRmKNo5/0dZ4FBVhZEn9jLM2ztOdnNNgwyxRejHjbxJ5ei8/P3M4GIfa8Nr41I46di9OjT6qt91ujpKkZ8L7RYpxb550I006V1V5zACMBsTvW2q1i04hLfALSWx17e+DdGWlGfrRszbNPDJoxLRYxJzjBymOUWCXg2zMCRnOsma7RcYTdTw0LaLp6sCsjTve//GLbQmJMf0l+7Z4GdgEuAfPOMsUBjCAtrIzLxKiNpgXW8+SQJ+C9D8LYY5d8fKb+yXJvBZy4c+kq8oLAaK/Zi5G1MsvhrcbmW6+Wx0miFeEcQ0wgVE6yekx2YoQKEf9L/cLUT4hQGSnB7Ywwbes+jGSVbB6qMVZjVA2N65iTCSNPAIWVpLf/3eckBfHmD5cdHWKgb7hXxWWHFKMFnkReDm+4ByNoqLa1x/6cbT6Jad5Ql4IaUtm7P2CvsyX+20UO5EuzdKIo/TgLfborHPspqjVsP0Ywq7R57pHohVpPERnxdDb7aE3gpVtCR1obdjXhdkYao9wEvVWUbd2DEXBv0LEWYrz1XhKxNHFeS0CjqXaXnRmhZeRs4lYNMH9earrcidWlWQrQZYo9GIHWPJzQHTP8EA6SnAUdWYSlg2elcy8ZYZUinU+Pc/AVCgFmt1mWUQLekxHSj+K2fHPsV8DB05Yekv3OqGH1edhB/AfnBAgqozEcT8dhW/dhBB4eGqA7rsco2acHdnhb59W+jLic7mQygmOMaDRpR73LzqHCKtnRXrMHIzgGwj0lVJynw756AJnc1sG5p9Ywm+isH8RbaFxyO3QmjVUC3oMRkm8D29py63e3MwLOtxu9bYRWZzPiON3JAZJjjzK60wPMlEBQCDjLFPvKCEk+tF2spe1ieCTPyEDsxkjX5YgV1t4649mDeIIuS5A+Q23oEvAejEyICuOdfexb2pW8MMD7kr0TJF79Iy7WauOeuyNKEHVTVMb+AboEvD8juHkjwLynzftiO17ZdiqICyNeZY0+Y9uUBljgs/PJGHS5k9jWkDUMd2FkzFjE64wogktZ136CM2SFW9SeUyvEySA9Zc4us1zH3GvH7nqjrOBuUbeXIDIqCDjGrXXNEIHNCJIB2lobrXlKosm8oS3GJp1RnMsm6Mkov1hlClm3GDQjSFJwNQ+PmC3EC1d/kwPbJbp6N8Z2Rmx6rHBjhDULc3kpsXqJbK0UsrbxheEHw+nLWRZOJtiS4lGUnFBIFC/TkDat2UTNPTuUOHZjA6nbZM5YFwlpK+v9JqO3exZjf5+BddkirZx9eM2V9cXJxT7J6NMqHY9sPwrc+jiZBBw3OrblIFjbdPUJLplkNAfzqdJg2uSEMF03YcwovFllGqyzBKRGZnWcpiS2bw1wMoXiumm8t35sKVl/m1gBp0mOJSL7nxePz3myq1/YPXRlULKYyo1szv09INKLy5VQ8DieXFHkRLYgzaabJnTykGn17RQrQmN2uUmn1+nNVC5ZmVUaG+CqzDEam+6IkcDG/SoUJWJhu1Aq3geSGMMy0MJZ5rWws7lxWEIlI8M3Zci2GyqJDK6XACGsGOtuGAms3LOIgsOWiHfxLQY68NZuc1vgZD0r5DzJhJZwXBhOwn5xlueNR7JU8cAT2QKLkbjHS01c2hnZ945eiNgZQRjNZ65fB6AkSjOybaCGD/JmekExvDcCDEY8zxbKFW2+Yf87uiM/MRkxWh+a4WVQKMFXQhincShyDv1klW6SkWXYbxq9y1N1aUYCA4/EQCb4Pb+7xGCE40OG64iPwsiizlAgBZBXSxRNae9FbPOwEahypwc/MhgJrD0oUaRbtenvhq6hNbX6OEptaHW0VrW6wAe1d84yPnQbMIPfuYfiKJH1YXe0oGvmg8Qu+nfS0q7Vqox5vttx0QexFuKxfPBUo6mJKp3z2wFR5nJg4ZV2LekuR7zVHY2EpH70UawIrYA98gUA1lm3o/jQm1C71qqaR4+0au1uXfu2AN7zHLTqmL8VmAvapVf3V2420hg5ANGeVvBfFTINWLy04aeOjodqO6kNtzBJviUA/aXS22JAxFuCebGll5QohfRBdzTvOsBfGKO8A3vdZj6MWGuXoxojyGpENVaSrgr13bDwPOAvu2oefot+fobP8MoIYK1rHkdsi61ar92Fb1Upd7vtXu1+zrCfe2bnM4X5gT6vOc+RRiphBRJSs3b8PVCkvfe4JJQ9t/zYMJiWSJCuNLAGwskeD54RtBD2XliUireMTZrzYElb0mfJtqEuH33wIgI6MWKfGWlyUljtunPBxGS9auhrODmLBaRaB+fx4A/YBusVL25Z3ipowbXHObqB5noVMdb5SuEYrwkgFncc7vUwgd/Zgtn2ZeUk0TjeTXnE2LzYMLtSlSxROiwgW7rqHgqwXoezW9uuZKl0HPZeAfZj6WmhZE146PtTQyAg0QduQgx0wJhMVjvshZKFSHCRZ2b4J7H1phgp2U1SQvsSww6En4/pmy06+N3l2U2kTvWRhVIkN93M1+FwbBQbDcLr+eJyFmnQaZ9EI00OUkni7MaDN6lWtLB+Ty532PhDaMnIuYQgSKVSSRKceVFtSFYifFTLoDDbD4V4YBDL+A3Ggl6N+nsgU9D2/Fe7mA+PxfyDRZu4gXX2cE6UXOSS+CWNj+SjUhgDrQq2JuJaOIwTuaRo56lofNQf71d8hEhTurgOSrvYWBYyQmGphS21CvDBPWI+EFp1bfPCYNrwrqKw6cgWLvNatriTJPLh1mD2aNDjNU6a822lJTuUXCl3rH9jRjWE81988lHLhwYxxHc1vzBazBq7VN0VJSeVVvOYXkvoJbVk8WOJULeh2h2Xdd/QXF8GGx6NGUomJzQyq/lAD+7FTpkn6dGt21AfE5CPiLb1CYnN8GIVzBbgm3YyigYcoEmF3Gw6DzeN+p9JR+UpqIsNYpsbJ9vmWxYno8F6vjlerYqzWXG1Ol6iID42sa5vWu0KoYOvt5+SeJhAznNc79Z2iTXhSH3eoONxRmM7odqDA6Dr3Z7H94hXtToTZoOv9J6mdFhQRZaB1L+6oU5Nr7lVq61WrdPukgJLFDsWPtl+Kq5lK1q9MkfX6qzFt2j3KasKG2KrFyrXrVSQEmal2+546NTThwjqUut0QIEsVWsfPnz48OHDhw8fPnz48OHDhw8fPnz48OHDhw8fPnz4cMP/A6jmaA1MCSJUAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC
GAME 1
Friday, May 19th 8:10 pm
Trevor Bauer (3-4) 6.92 ERA v Charlie Morton (5-2) 3.97 ERA

GAME 2
Saturday, May 20th 4:10pm
Mike Clevinger (1-1) 2.61 ERA v Mike Fiers (1-1) 5.75 ERA

GAME 3
Sunday, May 21st 2:10pm
Danny Salazar (2-4) 5.66 ERA v Joe Musgrove (3-3) 4.57 ERA

Projected starters

Houston
C - McCann
1B - Gurriel
2B - Altuve
3B - Bregman
SS - Correa
LF - Aoki
CF - Springer
RF - Reddick
DH - Beltran

Cleveland
C - Gomes
1B - Santana
2B - Kipnis
3B - Ramirez
SS - Lindor
LF - Brantley
CF - Zimmer
RF - Chisenhall
DH - Encarnacion​

 

[Derek]

Things to Watch:​

• Despite gaudy ERA's, Salazar and Bauer each have significantly better, and respectable, FIP/xFIP's. Both have allowed an unsustainably high BABIP as well as unusually high HR/FB ratios. This likely means that there are better days ahead for both pitchers.
• Bradley Zimmer's major league career. He's 2-7 with 4 K's, a double, and a HR, so the extremes of his game came out in full force during his debut series. If he can continue to be an XBH machine, his strikeout rate will be easy to overlook. I don't anticipate him continuing to K 57% of the time though.
• Outside of Yan Gomes, nobody has hit well since the calendar turned over to May. Chisenhall and Santana have each posted a respectable OBP% and OPS, but neither is tearing the cover off the ball. Getting Frankie, Brantley, and Jose raking again would be fantastic. Also, it's only a matter of time before Edwin gets hot.
• The Astros have been the best team in baseball so far. Keuchel and McCullers have been great, but luckily we avoid them this series. The rest of their rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Their bullpen has been been very good though, so it will be important to get an early lead, and allow our own stellar bullpen to bring home the victory.

 

[bushwick_bill]

Indians get swept and a serious melt down happens on here. That is what I am expecting.

 

[Derek]

View: https://twitter.com/Indians/status/865548872679997444

 

[DJTJ]

Calling him Invader Zim.

 

[OptimusPrime]

Despite gaudy ERA's, Salazar and Bauer each have significantly better, and respectable, FIP/xFIP's. Both have allowed an unsustainably high BABIP as well as unusually high HR/FB ratios. This likely means that there are better days ahead for both pitchers.

Salazar and Bauer have high BABIP because they are missing up in the zone, not because they are unlucky. If they keep serving up meatballs, their awful seasons are not unsustainable.

 

[Derek]

Salazar and Bauer have high BABIP because they are missing up in the zone, not because they are unlucky. If they keep serving up meatballs, their awful seasons are not unsustainable.

You're partially correct. That does contribute to a higher BABIP, but it's mostly bad luck. Their current numbers are definitely unsustainable.

 

[Otsego Mar]

This game-time carousel is nutty.

Is it really starting at 8 tonight?

 

[AZ_]

This game-time carousel is nutty.

Is it really starting at 8 tonight?

Not in Houston.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Salazar and Bauer have high BABIP because they are missing up in the zone, not because they are unlucky. If they keep serving up meatballs, their awful seasons are not unsustainable.

Disagree.

Their HR rates are up because they are missing up in the zone. But that only plays a small role in their high BABIP figures.

But Danny's GB% isn't that far off from his career average, and Bauer's is the 2nd highest in his career to this point, right at his career average. Combined they are getting GBs around 40% of the time, which for non-sinkerball, high strikeout rate pitchers is a good figure to sit around. Both of their GB per FB rates are right at their career averages as well.

Watching games, when they are getting hit on things that aren't leaving the yard, its a ground ball that finds a hole, or a little flare that falls between fielders, and then that leads to a big inning by a backbreaking HR usually, which is what is killing those 2, and Tomlin as well, though balls being put in play is a much bigger factor for his success (look at how his last start got out of hand).

K'ing more than 10 batters a game, while your BABIP is at least 50% higher than your career average is a good sign that progression towards their career means should be coming soon.

Danny's career averages for stats listed: GB%: 41.4%, GB/FB: 1.09, K/9: 10.3, BABIP: .309

Danny's current numbers for those stats: GB% 37.6%, GB/FB: 1.00, K/9: 13.5, BABIP: .383

Bauer's career averages for stats listed: GB%: 41.5%, GB/FB: 1.12, K/9: 8.4, BABIP: .294

Bauer's current numbers for those stats: GB%: 41.3%, GB/FB: 1.15, K/9: 10.1, BABIP: .350

I like the odds of both of them stringing together consecutive quality starts in the near future looking at their peripherals and how they compare to their career averages...regression in the BABIP will come, and mixed with career high K rates, should lead to really good things.

 

[OptimusPrime]

Disagree.

Their HR rates are up because they are missing up in the zone. But that only plays a small role in their high BABIP figures.

But Danny's GB% isn't that far off from his career average, and Bauer's is the 2nd highest in his career to this point, right at his career average. Combined they are getting GBs around 40% of the time, which for non-sinkerball, high strikeout rate pitchers is a good figure to sit around. Both of their GB per FB rates are right at their career averages as well.

Watching games, when they are getting hit on things that aren't leaving the yard, its a ground ball that finds a hole, or a little flare that falls between fielders, and then that leads to a big inning by a backbreaking HR usually, which is what is killing those 2, and Tomlin as well, though balls being put in play is a much bigger factor for his success (look at how his last start got out of hand).

K'ing more than 10 batters a game, while your BABIP is at least 50% higher than your career average is a good sign that progression towards their career means should be coming soon.

Danny's career averages for stats listed: GB%: 41.4%, GB/FB: 1.09, K/9: 10.3, BABIP: .309

Danny's current numbers for those stats: GB% 37.6%, GB/FB: 1.00, K/9: 13.5, BABIP: .383

Bauer's career averages for stats listed: GB%: 41.5%, GB/FB: 1.12, K/9: 8.4, BABIP: .294

Bauer's current numbers for those stats: GB%: 41.3%, GB/FB: 1.15, K/9: 10.1, BABIP: .350

I like the odds of both of them stringing together consecutive quality starts in the near future looking at their peripherals and how they compare to their career averages...regression in the BABIP will come, and mixed with career high K rates, should lead to really good things.

I hope you're right, but missing up doesn't only lead to more home runs. It leads to more hits in general, and can also be the difference between one of those flairs and a chopper on the infield. Just looking at your numbers, you can see the drop in Salazar's ground ball rate and why it would be an issue. And I'm just talking about misses. The games I've watched, when they leave one belt high I cringe before the batter even swings. It may only be happening a few times a game more than last year, but it's a killer. If he keeps the ball down, all the time, he'll be fine. Bauer always gets hit hard, and has always struggled with command, so I don't know how you fix him.

 

[Otsego Mar]

I hope you're right, but missing up doesn't only lead to more home runs. It leads to more hits in general, and can also be the difference between one of those flairs and a chopper on the infield. Just looking at your numbers, you can see the drop in Salazar's ground ball rate and why it would be an issue. And I'm just talking about misses. The games I've watched, when they leave one belt high I cringe before the batter even swings. It may only be happening a few times a game more than last year, but it's a killer. If he keeps the ball down, all the time, he'll be fine. Bauer always gets hit hard, and has always struggled with command, so I don't know how you fix him.

You don't - you trade his drone-havin' ass.

Fuck it - you can trade Tomlin while we're at it. I'll take a 50 year old Big Sexy over any of these back of the rotation guys.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I hope you're right, but missing up doesn't only lead to more home runs. It leads to more hits in general, and can also be the difference between one of those flairs and a chopper on the infield. Just looking at your numbers, you can see the drop in Salazar's ground ball rate and why it would be an issue. And I'm just talking about misses. The games I've watched, when they leave one belt high I cringe before the batter even swings. It may only be happening a few times a game more than last year, but it's a killer. If he keeps the ball down, all the time, he'll be fine. Bauer always gets hit hard, and has always struggled with command, so I don't know how you fix him.

Yeah, 40 IP in to a season and a 3.8% gap isn't all that concerning...not when that can go away in 2 quality starts, or probably 14 innings of solid pitching.

Some of the pitches up are concerning, yes, but a lot of that is mechanical shit, or off day routine shit...and if there is one person I trust to fix some of those issues, it's Mickey Callaway. I'd be far more concerned if their stuff just looked terrible, but both Bauer and Salazar's stuff looks great to start the year, and the K numbers support that. Most of the pitches up in the zone are mechanical problems that I bet get fixed, cause 20%+ HR per FB rates will not last for an entire season...just won't.

A problem a lot of fans do in baseball is overreact to the small sample sizes, both in the positive and negative. Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer aren't going to be 2 of the worst pitchers in the game by years end, and Mark Reynolds won't be the best hitter in the NL West by years end.

Baseball is all about progression/regression throughout the season for most players...it's going to happen. It happened last year with Kluber after a poor start to the year, it happened to Tomlin in the negative last year after the terrific 1st half...just how baseball works...I trust baseball will work for us as well, and the fact that half of our roster is in line for positive progression, I take that as a good sign moving forward.

 

[BimboColesHair]

You don't - you trade his drone-havin' ass.

Fuck it - you can trade Tomlin while we're at it. I'll take a 50 year old Big Sexy over any of these back of the rotation guys.

Thank God you don't run the franchise...

 

[Derek]

Yeah, 40 IP in to a season and a 3.8% gap isn't all that concerning...not when that can go away in 2 quality starts, or probably 14 innings of solid pitching.

Some of the pitches up are concerning, yes, but a lot of that is mechanical shit, or off day routine shit...and if there is one person I trust to fix some of those issues, it's Mickey Callaway. I'd be far more concerned if their stuff just looked terrible, but both Bauer and Salazar's stuff looks great to start the year, and the K numbers support that. Most of the pitches up in the zone are mechanical problems that I bet get fixed, cause 20%+ HR per FB rates will not last for an entire season...just won't.

A problem a lot of fans do in baseball is overreact to the small sample sizes, both in the positive and negative. Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer aren't going to be 2 of the worst pitchers in the game by years end, and Mark Reynolds won't be the best hitter in the NL West by years end.

Baseball is all about progression/regression throughout the season for most players...it's going to happen. It happened last year with Kluber after a poor start to the year, it happened to Tomlin in the negative last year after the terrific 1st half...just how baseball works...I trust baseball will work for us as well, and the fact that half of our roster is in line for positive progression, I take that as a good sign moving forward.

Out of all the qualified starting pitchers last year, only one allowed a BABIP over .350 (Robbie Ray, .352), and only one allowed a HR/FB ratio over 20% (Jaime Garcia, 20.2%).

It would be an upset of massive proportions if Bauer and Salazar each exceeded both of those numbers at the same time.

Especially when considering their career numbers, like you mentioned, there are definitely much better days ahead for both pitchers. Even Tomlin, who isn't pitching in this series, I mentioned in the last series thread about his increased GB% being a positive sign of better things to come for him, and we all know I have not been a Tomlin apologist.