Shumpert trade ideas

[I'mWithDan]

Is he a playoff performer? Sure, he shot 38% from three-point land, a very respectable number. But his defense was atrocious.

Opponents shot 5.8% better overall with him as the primary defender in the 2015-16 playoffs, 15.9% better under the rim off of drives, and 13.9% better in the painted area.

Moreover, he was a trainwreck in the finals. He shot 26.7% from three-point land, had a -13.4 net rating, and a 43.2% true shooting percentage.

The myth of Iman Shumpert is much bigger than his actual play, in my opinion. If we can't get a playoff contributor for him right now, then no, of course you don't trade him. But he isn't this guy who plays lockdown defense and shows up in the postseason like fans are making him out to be.

Isn't player quality considered in these calculations though?

Who were the main defensive assignments for him over the course of the playoffs? DeRozen and Curry / Thompson? Maybe the 3 best SG / Combo guards in the league? Obviously a guys' defensive statistics are going to suffer when guarding players of that quality.

Shump isn't a perfect player but he's athletic, can guard multiple positions without being a disaster and he's a solid enough shooter to have some gravity.

Also, I think people harp too much on the finals this year. Did he have a bad series? Obviously. So did Love. Not everyone will play at a high level, all the time, when the stakes are that high and the competition absolutely elite.

Career Averages: 40% FG, 34% 3PT, 47% EFG, 7 PTS, 3 REB, 106 DRTG
Playoff Averages: 38% FG, 38% 3PT, 48% EFG, 7 PTS, 4 REB, 104 DRTG

I'm not saying he's perfect but his playoff numbers are right in line with his career regular season totals (with even a slight uptick). He's a young, solid role player who's good enough to contribute on a championship team. Those guys aren't as easy to find as many of you make it out to be.

Also, everyone seems to just ignore financial consequences in all these discussions. Upgrading from Shump's contract is going to be laughably expensive. We don't live in a world where money doesn't matter. It's a huge consideration when looking at future roster construction. We can't realistically afford a player like Gay....so I'm not sure why we keep talking about him?

 

[Lyuokdea]

Isn't player quality considered in these calculations though?

Who were the main defensive assignments for him over the course of the playoffs? DeRozen and Curry / Thompson? Maybe the 3 best SG / Combo guards in the league? Obviously a guys' defensive statistics are going to suffer when guarding players of that quality.

You should certainly take that into account. OTOH you should also take into account that Rudy Gay usually gets guarded by the other teams best perimeter defender. Shumpert is usually just left wide open (because he's the guy other teams help off of when LBJ/KI/Smith are on the court).

 

[Lyuokdea]

 

[I'mWithDan]

You should certainly take that into account. OTOH you should also take into account that Rudy Gay usually gets guarded by the other teams best perimeter defender. Shumpert is usually just left wide open (because he's the guy other teams help off of when LBJ/KI/Smith are on the court).

Is it safe to assume Rudy Gay will make at least what JR did? And in reality, is getting significantly more? At $20 million a year, the difference between he and Shump is absolutely astronomical when looking at the tax implications. It just makes absolutely no sense from an operations standpoint.

Is it an upgrade basketball wise? Obviously but you just can't reconcile the financial aspects of it. We'd have to move someone else of importance (Frye? Not re-signing Korver? Both?) and then at that point, is Rudy Gay worth roster shuffling in a pretty significant way? I'd argue no when you start laying out the options of offsetting that money.

I think we'll listen to like offers dollar wise or even small increases but a player who makes $3.5 million more this year and will probably make $10 million more every year after just isn't realistic IMO....not after we already won a title.

 

[Lyuokdea]

Is it safe to assume Rudy Gay will make at least what JR did? And in reality, is getting significantly more? At $20 million a year, the difference between he and Shump is absolutely astronomical when looking at the tax implications. It just makes absolutely no sense from an operations standpoint.

There's a post a number of pages back where I went through it -- some other people have done the same.

The trade costs us $20M this year in taxes, if we use minimum deals to get back to 15 players. If we only carry 14, then the deal costs us $15M this year. We saved about $9M on the Mo Williams deal. So net we are looking at about $6M in cost. Our tax will actually be slightly less than last year.

Next year the cap is projected to increase by $10M. So even if Gay signs a contract starting at $20M, it's more or less cap neutral. The comparison (cap wise) would be:

Gay + Vet Minimum + Vetminimum vs Shumpert + TPE(4.4M) + taxpayer MLE (2.6M)

I would argue that you get more basketball value out of Gay + 2 vet min contracts. I think the taxpayer MLE is basically useless for the Cavs, because it just pays off a vet (like Jefferson) who would have taken the vet min if you didn't have the taxpayer MLE.

In Short: The cost this year is fairly large (but it's about what Gilbert was willing to pay last year). The cost next year is actually more marginal than people assume.

 

[I'mWithDan]

In Short: The cost this year is fairly large (but it's about what Gilbert was willing to pay last year). The cost next year is actually more marginal than people assume.

But only with minimum players is that cost manageable. To me, that is my breaking point in all this. That's effectively only carrying 14 players, with 2 likely being completely useless D-League guys. That might also not include any other warm bodies like McCrae or Felder as well, that might be in that 14 man roster, simply because they are dirt cheap.

So is Gay worth only carrying 10-11 players that even belong on an NBA roster? I just don't see it. I'd rather have Korver (re-signed) and Shump, with the ability to add more than a vet min guy vs flushing $20 mil on a Rudy Gay type. I just don't see him as being THAT good.

 

[Jordan]

Isn't player quality considered in these calculations though?

Who were the main defensive assignments for him over the course of the playoffs? DeRozen and Curry / Thompson? Maybe the 3 best SG / Combo guards in the league? Obviously a guys' defensive statistics are going to suffer when guarding players of that quality.

Shump isn't a perfect player but he's athletic, can guard multiple positions without being a disaster and he's a solid enough shooter to have some gravity.

Also, I think people harp too much on the finals this year. Did he have a bad series? Obviously. So did Love. Not everyone will play at a high level, all the time, when the stakes are that high and the competition absolutely elite.

Career Averages: 40% FG, 34% 3PT, 47% EFG, 7 PTS, 3 REB, 106 DRTG
Playoff Averages: 38% FG, 38% 3PT, 48% EFG, 7 PTS, 4 REB, 104 DRTG

I'm not saying he's perfect but his playoff numbers are right in line with his career regular season totals (with even a slight uptick). He's a young, solid role player who's good enough to contribute on a championship team. Those guys aren't as easy to find as many of you make it out to be.

Also, everyone seems to just ignore financial consequences in all these discussions. Upgrading from Shump's contract is going to be laughably expensive. We don't live in a world where money doesn't matter. It's a huge consideration when looking at future roster construction. We can't realistically afford a player like Gay....so I'm not sure why we keep talking about him?

Player quality is calculated. Those players shot the x value over their playoff averages when guarded by Shumpert. He was god awful on defense during the post-season. And he couldn't buy a basket in the finals.

Also, Love's contributions in game 7 were greater than the sum total of Shump's contributions the entire playoffs. I find that comparison laughable.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Player quality is calculated. Those players shot the x value over their playoff averages when guarded by Shumpert. He was god awful on defense during the post-season. And he couldn't buy a basket in the finals.

Also, Love's contributions in game 7 were greater than the sum total of Shump's contributions the entire playoffs. I find that comparison laughable.

Laughable? Love is an All-Star level player that didn't even play close to a replacement player. They were both terrible.....maybe Love more so when considering what each individual players' ceiling is.

I don't think Shump is perfect but none of you guys are grounded in reality (of how valuable he actually is based on youth and contractual terms or the unrealistic cost associated with replacing him with a better player under team control).

 

[Jordan]

Laughable? Love is an All-Star level player that didn't even play close to a replacement player. They were both terrible.....maybe Love more so when considering what each individual players' ceiling is.

I don't think Shump is perfect but none of you guys are grounded in reality (of how valuable he actually is based on youth and contractual terms or the unrealistic cost associated with replacing him with a better player).

Yes, laughable. You compared Love's Finals with Shumpert's. Shumpert was the worst player we played in the Finals and was borderline unplayable.

His defense has remained that poor this season, ranking in the bottom 15% of players defending the pick-and-roll and bottom 50% defending isolation plays. He overplays lanes constantly, including his "great" game last night.

I'm not saying to trade Shump for anything. He's a league average 3+D player. But if you can get someone better because the team is rebuilding, player on an expiring contract, etc. management has to and will consider it.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Yes, laughable. You compared Love's Finals with Shumpert's.

Kevin Love - 2016 Finals: 37% FG, 31% 3PT, 8.5 PTS, 6.8 REB

Love is an All-Star player doing that, which is horrendous.

Shump is an average to slightly above average role player who didn't play particularly well.

You think Shump, who's ceiling is about 20 floors lower than Love's, played laughably worse than Love?

This argument is dumb as hell. They both sucked.

 

[InBoobieWeTrust]

I said a few games back (I could probably go find the post if anyone wants)that I thought Shumperts slump was in big part him trying to do way too much and carry the second unit after JR went down and the rotations changed. It not only affected his offense, it also affected his defense.

I'd really like to see how he plays as a starter over the next month, before I jump on the "Trade him!" bandwagon. I'd especially like to see how he defends on Monday in Oakland, and don't we play the Spurs here soon?

He was really good until just before Christmas, then bad for a few weeks. He's STILL shooting 38% from 3 on the year!! 38!!! By far the best shooting numbers of his career, with 50% of the season complete.

Guys we're going to have to maybe, possibly defend en-route to the title: Isiah Thomas, Giannis, Wall, Beal, Paul George, Lowry, DeRozan, Curry, Klay, Durant, Kawhi, Harden.

First: LeBron can't be the guy we ask to take these dudes on 40+ minutes a night unless we want to lose the finals in 6 because he gets tired.

Second: You need the requisite size, strength, athleticism, and natural defensive ability to even begin to slow ANY of these guys down. Obviously, you also need effort, fundamentals, etc(things I agree Shump has lacked in recently compared to his all-NBA defensive play in his first year here+first playoff/final run) But at least he's capable, and has shown it before in more than just flashes. And with the current team, and the current, healthy, OVERALL productive Shumpert, it's only existed since the start of this season and the entire team has been loafing it the entire year because that's just how we roll now. Can he rise to his 2015 finals level this year if he stays healthy? Or will he be the guy we saw last year, never really healthy, never had any rhythm at any point in the season. I don't know. That's the big problem, and I recognize it is a problem. But I still haven't seen anything suggested by anyone that would make us better right now in terms of beating the Warriors(or Spurs, or Rockets..) in the finals. Except for Rudy Gay. I do not see that as realistic however.

Third: We're not adding big money in salary. So if we DID trade for Gay, we should be prepared for it to be a rental. He's going to command Batum money. So if we traded Shumpert for Gay, we trade Shumpert for two more years after this, for a half season of Rudy Gay, and we would probably have to include Cedi Osman. I don't know. Gay is good yes. I just don't see the team taking that avenue because Gilbert has pretty much given the directive.

I'm open to potential, realistic, Shumpert targets. But they have to basically be an athletic wing player who can hit ~35% of their threes and play good consistent defense. Because I don't care how much better Ricky Rubio would make us against Portland and Utah on a west coast road trip when nobody else is making plays. I need somebody who can contribute on both ends against Golden State while LeBron and Kyrie handle the ball literally every possession for probably 42 out of 48 minutes of game-time. It also cannot increase our luxury tax by much at all because that is a non-starter for Dan Gilbert and isn't worth talking about.

 

[Jordan]

Kevin Love - 2016 Finals: 37% FG, 31% 3PT, 8.5 PTS, 6.8 REB

Love is an All-Star player doing that, which is horrendous.

Shump is an average to slightly above average role player who didn't play particularly well.

You think Shump, who's ceiling is about 20 floors lower than Love's, played laughably worse than Love?

This argument is dumb as hell. They both sucked.

Love contributed more in game 7 than Shump did all postseason.

 

[Lyuokdea]

But only with minimum players is that cost manageable. To me, that is my breaking point in all this. That's effectively only carrying 14 players, with 2 likely being completely useless D-League guys. That might also not include any other warm bodies like McCrae or Felder as well, that might be in that 14 man roster, simply because they are dirt cheap.

So is Gay worth only carrying 10-11 players that even belong on an NBA roster? I just don't see it. I'd rather have Korver (re-signed) and Shump, with the ability to add more than a vet min guy vs flushing $20 mil on a Rudy Gay type. I just don't see him as being THAT good.

You won't get any players that belong in our rotation at the tax-payer MLE or the TPE either, so it's sort of a moot point.

Playoff rotations also only go 8-9 deep. We would have:

LBJ/KI/Love/Gay/Thompson/Smith/Frye/Korver (we have his bird rights).

We will pick up somebody on a vet min who can play minutes, and we will also have Jefferson/Liggins/Felder.

That's plenty.

 

[I'mWithDan]

You won't get any players that belong in our rotation at the tax-payer MLE or the TPE either, so it's sort of a mute point.

Playoff rotations also only go 8-9 deep. We would have:

LBJ/KI/Love/Gay/Thompson/Smith/Frye/Korver (we have his bird rights).

We will pick up somebody on a vet min who can play minutes, and we will also have Jefferson/Liggins/Felder.

That's plenty.

You'd definitely subtract Korver IMO. There's no way we are re-signing him if we add the salary necessary to retain Gay. If RJ is getting $3 million a year, Korver is still a $4.5-5 million dollar player. I don't think that kind of salary is in the budget with Gay at $20+ mil on a new deal, regardless of Bird Rights. So we'd more than likely have just 7 players (I think RJ is done) worth putting on the floor (8 if we're lucky and a vet falls in our lap or RJ rebounds from a poor shooting year). If anyone is injured, we are absolutely fucked.

Rudy Gay is not worth stripping down your depth for. We're way better off with our core 6 guys + Frye, Shump, Korver and a vet than we are with our core 6 + Gay + a vet min that is hopefully worth playing. Again, just my personal opinion but it is such a stretch from a depth perspective, knowing the likely dominoes involved in a Gay transaction (i.e. I'd be skeptical we could pay someone like Channing $7 million but maybe we can swallow that salary).

I get he's a better player but think about how awful it has been managing minutes this season. Now imagine even fewer players we can realistically play. With LeBron aging, we should not be trying to consolidate depth for the sake of getting better at a single position. We should be doing everything in our power to manufacture MORE depth with any remaining assets, in an effort to extend LeBron's window as long as possible.

Unless you truly believe Rudy Gay is a championship player in a bad organization who will significantly change the landscape of our team and title chances? Is Rudy Gay so good that LeBron will only have to play 30 minutes a night? If the answer isn't an unequivocal yes, there's no way I'm stripping depth and our remaining assets for him. I think that would be an incredibly irresponsible thing to do (but maybe I am in the minority).

 

[Lyuokdea]

You'd definitely subtract Korver IMO. There's no way we are re-signing him if we add the salary necessary to retain Gay. If RJ is getting $3 million a year, Korver is still a $4.5-5 million dollar player. I don't think that kind of salary is in the budget with Gay at $20+ mil on a new deal, regardless of Bird Rights. So we'd more than likely have just 7 players worth putting on the floor (8 if we're lucky and a vet falls in our lap). If anyone is injured, we are absolutely fucked.

I'm including Korver at $5M a year in my calculation. With Rudy at $20M/year, Korver at $5M/year, and Frye at $8M/year, we are still over the tax next year by the same amount as we are this year, and less than we were last year.