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Damn, Jimmy G this is some serious good quarterbacking.

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I think the deal would have been done by now if the Patriots would accept 12 and a second.
 
I think the deal would have been done by now if the Patriots would accept 12 and a second.

I still believe the Browns aren't willing to let 12 go in a deal. Just my gut, nothing material to back it up.
 
It could be a draft day decision depending on who drops to 12. Another factor is, how much pressure is Haslam exerting on the front office to find a FQB this year.

When you consider what kind of QB we'd end up if we used the #12 pick Grapes would be a definite upgrade who could start day one. If we were to go with a non-QB at 12 we should end up with somebody who could play day one but we all know we need a QB who can do that more than another position.

I don't see Garropolo's future salary as a concern if he ends up being a bonafide NFL starter. We'd end up paying anyone we could find who is worth a shit.
 
I don't see Garropolo's future salary as a concern if he ends up being a bonafide NFL starter. We'd end up paying anyone we could find who is worth a shit.

Not for someone under a first contract we wouldn't. That's a huge bonus for draft picks v. free agents in the salary-slotting era.

His expected salary certainly isn't a reason to not want him -- but it's a reason that should affect the price we're willing to pay. After all, don't you think what the Pats would have to pay to keep him in 2018 impacts their willingness to trade him?
 
It could be a draft day decision depending on who drops to 12. Another factor is, how much pressure is Haslam exerting on the front office to find a FQB this year.

When you consider what kind of QB we'd end up if we used the #12 pick Grapes would be a definite upgrade who could start day one. If we were to go with a non-QB at 12 we should end up with somebody who could play day one but we all know we need a QB who can do that more than another position.

I don't see Garropolo's future salary as a concern if he ends up being a bonafide NFL starter. We'd end up paying anyone we could find who is worth a shit.

I agree. Having to pay him is not a major factor in this decision. We have plenty of cap room. If a QB works out, we'd have to pay him anyway eventually and in this case, with Jimmy, you could front load if necessary to maintain more long-term flexibility.

The key is how much our front office believes that he is said franchise quarterback. If they believe he has a good chance of being that, the 12 and a future 2nd is worth it. Likewise, if they aren't sold, we shouldn't even be calling the Patriots. The money/contract is not the deal breaker in either case.
 
Not for someone under a first contract we wouldn't. That's a huge bonus for draft picks v. free agents in the salary-slotting era.

His expected salary certainly isn't a reason to not want him -- but it's a reason that should affect the price we're willing to pay. After all, don't you think what the Pats would have to pay to keep him in 2018 impacts their willingness to trade him?
When it comes to starting NFL QBs it's a seller's market. The Pats do gain some benefit from just keeping him around in the form of security because Brady could always go down with a serious injury and that might carry weight versus getting maximum value in the form of draft picks.

I can only look at it from the Browns perspective and in terms of leverage, and in this QB market it just seems that the Pats have most of the leverage. And from the Browns POV if they think Garrapolo can be a top 15 QB for the next 7-8 years and end the laughing stock the team has become it would be well worth it versus taking a flier on an unproven draft pick in a weak draft for QBs.

If for some reason the Browns are sold on one of the guys in this draft then by all means spend # 12 and be done with it, and roll with Kessler.
 
When it comes to starting NFL QBs it's a seller's market. The Pats do gain some benefit from just keeping him around in the form of security because Brady could always go down with a serious injury and that might carry weight versus getting maximum value in the form of draft picks.

But teams still have limits in terms of what they're willing to pay starting quarterbacks, much less backups. If JG's contract situation was irrelevant, they'd really have no reason to trade him at all. In fact, the only reason a trade is even being discussed at all is because everyone knows his contract situation, and that the Pats don't want to be paying franchise level money to two QB's at the same time.

I can only look at it from the Browns perspective and in terms of leverage, and in this QB market it just seems that the Pats have most of the leverage.

This is basically the flip side of the Kevin Love debate, right? Many people were saying that the T-Wolves had to trade him because of his contract situation so they wouldn't end up with nothing. And unless we assume that 1) the Pats are willing to franchise Garrapolo, or 2) Garrapolo is willing to stay there indefinitely making less money than he could elsewhere, "nothing" is exactly what the Pats are going to end up with at the end of the season.

And from the Browns POV if they think Garrapolo can be a top 15 QB for the next 7-8 years and end the laughing stock the team has become it would be well worth it versus taking a flier on an unproven draft pick in a weak draft for QBs.

"Can?" Or "will"?

I'd agree that if the Browns are sure that JG is going to be a top 7-8 QB, they should offer the 12 and 33. No doubt about that. I just think it is unlikely in the extreme that they've made that determination.
 
"Can" vs "will" is silly. Of course he "can" and anyone who thinks he "will" is just guessing.

Everything is about probabilities. "If you think he's a franchise quarterback..." Then he's worth basically every pick you've got.

In the end it's a guessing game. Is he more likely to be a upper-tier quarterback than one of the guys available in the draft? I peg quarterbacks drafted near #12 as basically 33% to succeed. That's based on about 27 qbs drafted from 1-10 since 1999 and only 11 outright successes (40%), and 11 taken between 11 and 20, with 3 successes (27%).

So sure, give up the 12 pick if you think Grapes has a 33% chance of being Flacco/Stafford or better. I actually kind of think that's about right. But you have to pay him as if you will find that out after 1 year. Which makes it riskier.

If Brady goes down and Garoppolo goes 10-6, 21 TD and 11 INT, what is he worth then?

More or less than what the Chiefs traded for Cassel in 2009, which was not much?
 
More or less than what the Chiefs traded for Cassel in 2009, which was not much?

I have one problem with this comparison:

Cassel was a seventh round project who was coached up, and ended up good enough to keep a team afloat, kind of a high end journeyman. All things considered, he is a success story of a nobody who was coached up.

Garoppalo was considered a low first round/high second round prospect and one of the top QBs of his draft class. He was drafted in the bottom half of the second round because he has more tools than Cassel ever had.
 
But teams still have limits in terms of what they're willing to pay starting quarterbacks, much less backups. If JG's contract situation was irrelevant, they'd really have no reason to trade him at all. In fact, the only reason a trade is even being discussed at all is because everyone knows his contract situation, and that the Pats don't want to be paying franchise level money to two QB's at the same time.



This is basically the flip side of the Kevin Love debate, right? Many people were saying that the T-Wolves had to trade him because of his contract situation so they wouldn't end up with nothing. And unless we assume that 1) the Pats are willing to franchise Garrapolo, or 2) Garrapolo is willing to stay there indefinitely making less money than he could elsewhere, "nothing" is exactly what the Pats are going to end up with at the end of the season.



"Can?" Or "will"?

I'd agree that if the Browns are sure that JG is going to be a top 7-8 QB, they should offer the 12 and 33. No doubt about that. I just think it is unlikely in the extreme that they've made that determination.

Not so sure about that.

Joe Thomas' and Josh McCowns' comments make me believe otherwise. They've watched film on Jimmy, and with the coaches to prep for Miami and both had very high praise.
 
Not so sure about that.

Joe Thomas' and Josh McCowns' comments make me believe otherwise. They've watched film on Jimmy, and with the coaches to prep for Miami and both had very high praise.

"Will be" a top 7-8 NFL QB is an incredibly high standard. Maybe Luck would have fit that description when drafted. Maybe.
 
I have one problem with this comparison:

Cassel was a seventh round project who was coached up, and ended up good enough to keep a team afloat, kind of a high end journeyman. All things considered, he is a success story of a nobody who was coached up.

Garoppalo was considered a low first round/high second round prospect and one of the top QBs of his draft class. He was drafted in the bottom half of the second round because he has more tools than Cassel ever had.

I don't want to discount that, but if Garoppolo comes into the same situation and can't perform better than Cassel, don't we start to assume that the Patriots are built in such a way that virtually anyone can come in, learn the system, and win 9-11 games? Sure Jimmy was drafted in the second round, but since the Browns have come back there are literally no quarterbacks drafted within 12 spots* of #62 that have had any modicum of success in the league with the exception of Mike Glennon who inexplicably turned 18 mediocre starts into $23 million guaranteed.

What I'm driving at is even full seasons of success by quarterbacks can be fool's gold. I want to know where are the success stories? I'm driving myself crazy trying to understand where "Franchise Quarterbacks" come from and I seriously cannot come up with anything more sophisticated than something along the lines of a "Franchise Quarterback Fairy".

*reason I went with 12 spots is because if you look 13 spots lower than Garoppolo, suddenly Russell Wilson appears, courtesy of.....i don't know, the Franchise Quarterback Fairy?
 
What I'm driving at is even full seasons of success by quarterbacks can be fool's gold. I want to know where are the success stories? I'm driving myself crazy trying to understand where "Franchise Quarterbacks" come from and I seriously cannot come up with anything more sophisticated than something along the lines of a "Franchise Quarterback Fairy".

*reason I went with 12 spots is because if you look 13 spots lower than Garoppolo, suddenly Russell Wilson appears, courtesy of.....i don't know, the Franchise Quarterback Fairy?

I think the most critical component of understanding the transition from college quarterback to pro quarterback is examining how college football has changed. The past two decades have shown the college game become a completely different system than what works in the pros.

Matt Hasselbeck just retired this past season, but he still started games for the Colts at age 40. His college coach was Tom Coughlin, who obviously ran a pro style offense at Boston College and brought it with him to Jacksonville. This type of symbiotic relationship between the college game and pro game is pretty much dead. College head coaches stay at cushy college jobs with job security, running their spread offense that doesn't translate to QB success in the pros but keeps the college wins stacked.

If there is a Franchise QB Fairy, you find a college player meeting the physical criteria with some experience under center making pro style reads, or you find a former spread QB who has had enough time running an NFL scout team. The Wildcat and read options were gimmicks which have run their course. Pocket awareness and progressions never go out of fashion.
 
What about trading back from 12, getting 17-22 plus other assets and then flipping that 1st and maybe a future pick for Jimmy?
 

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