The Magic Number Thread: 2017 Edition

[shoes22]

Welcome one and all! It's that time of year again where we fire up the ol' Magic Number countdown machine as we wind down the regular season. (I was actually going to make this thread a week or two ago, but the Cavs kept annoyingly dropping games so it felt inappropriate )

Here are the numbers you need to know:
Cavs' magic number to clinch a playoff berth: CLINCHED!
Cavs' magic number to clinch the Central Division: CLINCHED!
Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the first round: CLINCHED!
Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: CLINCHED!
Cavs' magic number to clinch the top seed in the East: ELIMINATED
Cavs' highest seed clinched: 2nd seed

You might remember that in prior years I also tracked the Cavs' magic number to clinch the best record in the NBA, which I'm not doing this year as the Cavs have fallen so far back in that race they only have ~3% chance of doing so, according to my data model.

For anyone that needs a quick primer for how the Magic Number is calculated, it's a simple formula that's: (82 games (+1 if tiebreaker isn't clinched)) - (Cavs wins + Opponent losses).

Against which teams do the Cavs own the tiebreaker? You can consult this handy chart!
Cavs Eastern Conference Tiebreakers:
VS. Celtics: OWNED (Won season series 3-1)
VS. Raptors: OWNED (Won season series 3-1)
VS. Wizards: OWNED (Won season series 2-1)
VS. Hawks: UNOWNED (Lost season series 1-3)
VS. Bucks: OWNED (Won season series 3-1)
VS. Pacers: OWNED (Won season series 3-1)
VS. Bulls: UNOWNED (Lost season series 0-4)
VS. Heat: UNOWNED (Lost season series 1-3)
VS. Pistons: OWNED (Season series tied 2-2, division winner clinches)

Teams that are bolded mean the tiebreaker is clinched and cannot change. For simplicity, I am only factoring the tiebreaker in the Magic Number calculations in cases where a tiebreaker is clinched. The Cavs will likely clinch better records outright over all these teams before any of these tiebreakers would become relevant, but they're here for (mostly my) reference.

Thanks for participating in this thread everybody, see you next year!

 

[Cement]

The only magic number for me is 16, the countdown starting on April 15.

 

[cavsfever]

With four more back to backs coming up for us in the next few weeks and I think none for Boston, I am guessing our April 5th game at the Celtics turns out to be very important (either that, or we just give up on the one seed at some point if injury scares keep coming up).

 

[Simon]

 

[col63onel]

Boston currently has 26 losses, meaning if they win out, they go 56-26.

Cavs currently have 45 wins, meaning 11 more Cavs wins/Celtics losses for the Cavs to guarantee a tie and 12 to clinch it. If we had the tiebreaker clinched, we'd only need the 11 to tie, but we haven't secured it yet, so we still need 12.

Matt Moore probably assumed we had the tiebreaker, which is not surprising, because Matt Moore is an idiot.

 

[TheWine&Gold]

Division should now be down to 3 with Cavs win and Pacers loss.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Boston currently has 26 losses, meaning if they win out, they go 56-26.

Cavs currently have 45 wins, meaning 11 more Cavs wins/Celtics losses for the Cavs to guarantee a tie and 12 to clinch it. If we had the tiebreaker clinched, we'd only need the 11 to tie, but we haven't secured it yet, so we still need 12.

Matt Moore probably assumed we had the tiebreaker, which is not surprising, because Matt Moore is an idiot.

If we hadn't choked in the last game against Boston, we would own the tiebreaker and the Magic Number would be 9.

 

[Real Deal]

If we hadn't choked in the last game against Boston, we would own the tiebreaker and the Magic Number would be 9.

Still have a shot at owning the tiebreaker... that could be a tune up game.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Why have we clinched playoffs, when we could technically lose 36 games, and we don't own the tiebreaker against either Miami or Detroit? Is it because the Pistons still play the Heat, and one of those teams has to lose at least one more?

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Still have a shot at owning the tiebreaker... that could be a tune up game.

I hope they come out motivated. Every time you think they should, they take a crap at half court.

 

[shoes22]

Division should now be down to 3 with Cavs win and Pacers loss.

Yup!

Cavs' magic number to clinch a playoff berth: CLINCHED!
Cavs' magic number to clinch the Central Division: 3
Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the first round: 5
Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 9
Cavs' magic number to clinch the top seed in the East: 11

Why have we clinched playoffs, when we could technically lose 36 games, and we don't own the tiebreaker against either Miami or Detroit? Is it because the Pistons still play the Heat, and one of those teams has to lose at least one more?

Yup, exactly. One of the Pistons or Heat are guaranteed to lose at least one more game because they play each other, meaning the worst we can finish now is the 8th seed, thus securing a playoff spot.

 

[cavsfever]

So the Celtics have 11 games left and we have 13 games left, and a two game lead for the one seed (three in the loss column).

But that lead is less secure than it looks. The Celtics have 8 out of 11 games at home with just one back to back, and most second-tier competition (only good teams they are playing are Cavs and Atlanta). We have 7 out of 13 games at home, with 6 on the road, and three back to backs. We have six games in nine days in early April, we will definitely not want our entire Big Three playing all of those games. We are also playing the Spurs, Celtics, Washington, Toronto and Atlanta twice (good competition). Plus Denver at Denver is no picnic.

Say the Celtics go 9-2, which they could easily do. In that case we have to go 8-5 to tie them, which would require beating them at Boston as a tiebreaker. We would need to go 9-4 to beat them outright. This should be do-able, but I think you have to chalk up at least two to three losses due to resting Lebron and others. So we don't have much room to screw around, if any. This season should come down to the wire and there is a good chance the game at Boston will be crucial.

The one good side to this is that it will force us to get serious about defense leading in to the playoffs.

 

[bigfoot5415]

We will more than likely step on the Celtics throats when we play this month just for the separation. I see no way they actually catch us, even with the rest our guys will be getting.

 

[col63onel]

So the Celtics have 11 games left and we have 13 games left, and a two game lead for the one seed (three in the loss column).

But that lead is less secure than it looks. The Celtics have 8 out of 11 games at home with just one back to back, and most second-tier competition (only good teams they are playing are Cavs and Atlanta). We have 7 out of 13 games at home, with 6 on the road, and three back to backs. We have six games in nine days in early April, we will definitely not want our entire Big Three playing all of those games. We are also playing the Spurs, Celtics, Washington, Toronto and Atlanta twice (good competition). Plus Denver at Denver is no picnic.

Say the Celtics go 9-2, which they could easily do. In that case we have to go 8-5 to tie them, which would require beating them at Boston as a tiebreaker. We would need to go 9-4 to beat them outright. This should be do-able, but I think you have to chalk up at least two to three losses due to resting Lebron and others. So we don't have much room to screw around, if any. This season should come down to the wire and there is a good chance the game at Boston will be crucial.

The one good side to this is that it will force us to get serious about defense leading in to the playoffs.

One thing to note

First tiebreaker is H2H
Second tiebreaker is conference record
Third tiebreaker is record vs playoff teams in your own conference.

So if we lose @ Boston and the conference record tiebreaker is tied, the bottom of East playoff bracket could determine the tiebreaker.

We are 1-5 vs Chicago and Miami (2 pending) and 7-4 vs Indy, Milwaukee and Detroit (1 pending). It's our best interest if Miami and Chicago stay out of the playoffs.

 

[col63onel]

I think by the time we travel to Boston, we'll already be behind Boston in the standings.