The Magic Number Thread: 2017 Edition

[Real Deal]

There is no magic with this team this year.

 

[Taiter]

I think by the time we travel to Boston, we'll already be behind Boston in the standings.

Boston has an easy schedule the rest of the year and it should be clear by now that the Cavs will be screwing around for most of the rest of the regular season. Boston has exactly one tough game left, and it's against Cleveland... at home, with 2 days rest, and Cleveland coming off a back to back. If Boston doesn't get the 1 seed, they screwed up.

I've never seen a team less concerned with the regular season than this one. It's really painful to watch these lousy games against mediocre teams; I just hope it's all worth it.

 

[shoes22]

Cavs' magic number to clinch the Central Division: 2
Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the first round: 3
Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 8
Cavs' magic number to clinch the top seed in the East:

Z for good luck?

 

[ACisKING]

Boston has an easy schedule the rest of the year and it should be clear by now that the Cavs will be screwing around for most of the rest of the regular season. Boston has exactly one tough game left, and it's against Cleveland... at home, with 2 days rest, and Cleveland coming off a back to back. If Boston doesn't get the 1 seed, they screwed up.

I've never seen a team less concerned with the regular season than this one. It's really painful to watch these lousy games against mediocre teams; I just hope it's all worth it.

Ultimately all comes to this: can the Cavs win a playoff game in Boston in May? If so, then losing the one seed really won't be that big of a deal. I don't even know if there is a real difference between facing Toronto and Washington.

 

[Crosby_Cavs]

Boston will win the conference in the reagular season, hopefuly we will still be 2nd because Wizards are close too. With playing like this, with our defense, there is big chance we will end 3rd.

 

[Andrew]

If it's 11 to clinch the overall one seed in the conference this shit won't be determined until the last day of the season


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Zog]

If we can't get our shit together and start playing how we are capable and beat Boston and Washington over these last two weeks, then we aren't winning the Finals anyways, so who really gives a shit about HCA in the East?

I'd bet on us to beat any team in the East even if we didn't have HCA in a single series.

 

[shoes22]

Your Cleveland Cavaliers are Central Division Champions for the 3rd straight year, 6th in franchise history! With tonight's win and the Pacers loss, the Cavs can finish no lower than the 5th seed on the year. The OP has also been updated with all the latest tiebreakers.

Cavs' magic number to clinch the Central Division: CLINCHED!
Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the first round: 1
Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 7
Cavs' magic number to clinch the top seed in the East:

 

[shoes22]

So I crunched the numbers through my game predictor model through the rest of the season, and this is how it expects the seeding race to play out in the East. I will post them here with a disclaimer, noting that the head to head game on April 5th will play a HUGE role in determining the seeding.

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Monday, April 10th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Current odds Cavs clinch #1 seed: 19.99%

Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the first round: CLINCHED!
Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 7
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed in the East:

 

[JMoneyYourHoney]

So I crunched the numbers through my game predictor model through the rest of the season, and this is how it expects the seeding race to play out in the East. I will post them here with a disclaimer, noting that the head to head game on April 5th will play a HUGE role in determining the seeding.

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Monday, April 10th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Current odds Cavs clinch #1 seed: 19.99%

Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the first round: CLINCHED!
Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 7
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed in the East:

What a terribly disappointing season.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

What a terribly disappointing season.

The season hasn't even started yet

 

[Dylan Windler's Mom]

update the post

 

[shoes22]

update the post

You can say please, yeesh.

Pretty much nothing has changed since my last post Monday afternoon. Our magic numbers remain the same since then, and while our odds for the #1 seed have decreased because of the loss, the Cavs were already projected to lose in the Spurs game according to my model, so the projected clinch dates haven't changed either.

The good news is barring some kind of ridiculous collapse, the Cavs should be able to clinch at worst the 2 seed without breaking a sweat. Here's the full data:

Projected #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Friday, April 7th
Average #3 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Wizards on Sunday, April 9th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #3 seed: 92.88%

Projected #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Wednesday, April 12th
Average #2 seed clinch date: Cavs clinch over the Raptors on Sunday, April 9th
Current odds Cavs lock up at least the #2 seed: 90.30%

Projected #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Monday, April 10th
Average #1 seed clinch date: Celtics clinch on Wednesday, April 12th
Current odds Cavs clinch #1 seed: 14.95% (-5.04%)

Cavs' magic number to clinch home court through the second round: 7
Cavs' magic number to clinch the #1 seed:

 

[wuck]

Good night for scoreboard watching.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

The problem with counting wins for Boston and saying "easy games" is that Boston isn't of the caliber where their games are a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination.

Good work young Delliam (game high +13)