Ayton (and the rest of T4) would be T2 for me in a lot of drafts...but Doncic and JJJ knocked everyone down in this draft down two tiers by being freaky once-in-a-generation unicorn prospects.
Ayton would be a tier higher for me if I were more confident in his offensive game translating. There's just not much of a precedent for a big man who doesn't really pass and doesn't really bomb 3's being an elite offensive player in the modern NBA. And if he ends up being good-not-great offensively, I'm not sure he has the right kind of mental makeup to play his best in an offense that doesn't always revolve around him. If I'm going to draft a defensive sieve in the mid-high lottery, I have to be confident he's a likely future top-10 player offensively, and I don't think that's a realistic projection for Ayton.
Ayton would be a tier higher for me if I were more confident in his offensive game translating. There's just not much of a precedent for a big man who doesn't really pass and doesn't really bomb 3's being an elite offensive player in the modern NBA. And if he ends up being good-not-great offensively, I'm not sure he has the right kind of mental makeup to play his best in an offense that doesn't always revolve around him. If I'm going to draft a defensive sieve in the mid-high lottery, I have to be confident he's a likely future top-10 player offensively, and I don't think that's a realistic projection for Ayton.